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Author Topic: Bear Market or Market Correction.  (Read 4381 times)
rizzn
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July 14, 2011, 07:44:57 PM
 #1

Disclaimer: I'm a relative newbie that's been experimenting with different trading and arbitrage techniques on the various markets.

I'm just trying to take a pulse of everyone's general opinion; it's obvious that when the price spiked up to $30, there was bound to be a correction. Luckily I bought in most of my coins when the price was in the 13's last month. Now, as the price creeps back to where I first started at, I'm left wondering if BTC is in a "bear" zone, or this is simply a delayed market correction.

There doesn't seem to be a great deal of new capital entering the system, and most of the trading activity appears to be bots and humans reacting to minor market hiccups (at least in the last couple of weeks where I've been obsessively watching).

Just curious on opinions.

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Olomana
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July 14, 2011, 09:25:31 PM
 #2

There doesn't seem to be a great deal of new capital entering the system...
Bitcoins are still being mined, and some fraction of those are sold to pay for electricity.  There's enough new capital coming in every day to pay for the electricity.
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July 15, 2011, 07:11:39 PM
 #3

There doesn't seem to be a great deal of new capital entering the system...
Bitcoins are still being mined, and some fraction of those are sold to pay for electricity.  There's enough new capital coming in every day to pay for the electricity.

I can agree with your first two assertions, but I don't see market evidence of the last one. If substantial amounts of capital were being brought in, there would be a number of indicators of that (most notably that the market would be trending up rather than down).

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July 16, 2011, 05:19:26 AM
 #4

...
Just curious on opinions.


The first step is to add a time frame to your question.

(( IMO ))
Long-Term = Bullish

Medium-Term = Bearish | Extremely Bearish: Needs to retest the June 11-12 low of 10.25. | Could go as low as 6.50 to 7.50 (an old trading range) or even 1.50 if the Bulls finally give up, and enough people (including miners) panic-sell.

Short-Term = Could change before I'm done typing.   Cheesy

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July 16, 2011, 05:20:41 AM
 #5

Yeah I'm bearish for a while.

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July 16, 2011, 05:35:34 AM
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S3052
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BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


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July 16, 2011, 06:31:16 AM
 #7

I cover in depth assessment of bear / bull situations in my technical analysis subscription service.
the picture bithappy painted is not how we see it in the analysis.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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July 16, 2011, 11:18:10 AM
 #8

I cover in depth assessment of bear / bull situations in my technical analysis subscription service.
the picture bithappy painted is not how we see it in the analysis.


Maybe so, but the market has not been fulfilling your expectations of a breakout this week either.

The value of the bitcoin is currently locked in around the 13.50 - 14.50 range and given the order books and signs that both sides of the order book are apparently holding firm in their valuations, I can't see anything happening unless someone decides to stir the pot or new information comes to light that affects the perceived value of BTC as reflected by the market.
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July 16, 2011, 12:42:16 PM
 #9

It is true that patience is needed for the breakout. Still, we expect the breakout to the upside from current levels, or slightly lower.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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July 16, 2011, 07:32:53 PM
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Beer market
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July 16, 2011, 07:46:08 PM
 #11

I suspect that right now it is hipsters investing in bitcoin. It is slow, but steady. There will be a point in the near future of 5-6 months when bitcoins will become investments for the general public because apps and clients will be made available for their use. This will create a new steady period for awhile until there is a critical mass and bitcoins start catching on as spendable currency in trendy shops and boutiques. After that, they will become accepted as a mainstream currency as conservative vendors realize the benefits of bitcoins over fiat currencies.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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July 17, 2011, 12:35:26 AM
 #12

IMO its a market correction. A close above $15 on heavy volume could lead us to a test of resistance levels at th $18-$19 level.
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July 17, 2011, 07:56:36 AM
 #13

+1 This is also how we see it

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July 17, 2011, 08:24:04 AM
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Wake me when the running of the bulls starts. This low volume is putting me to sleep. Smiley

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July 17, 2011, 11:30:09 AM
 #15

there's a wall @ 13 and 13.02, therefore almostly no wall to higher levels (only 1270 BTC to 13.6 USD), and this could simply ignite the-so-long-and-faithfully-waiting rally. So what's holding us?
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July 17, 2011, 11:47:19 AM
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there's a wall @ 13 and 13.02, therefore almostly no wall to higher levels (only 1270 BTC to 13.6 USD), and this could simply ignite the-so-long-and-faithfully-waiting rally. So what's holding us?

By the time a "rally" does actually happen, we'll probably only be rallying up to prices at or lower than the prices at which people began predicting there'd be a rally.  The rally predictions have been going on for well over a week now.
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July 17, 2011, 12:27:06 PM
 #17

there's a wall @ 13 and 13.02, therefore almostly no wall to higher levels (only 1270 BTC to 13.6 USD), and this could simply ignite the-so-long-and-faithfully-waiting rally. So what's holding us?

By the time a "rally" does actually happen, we'll probably only be rallying up to prices at or lower than the prices at which people began predicting there'd be a rally.  The rally predictions have been going on for well over a week now.

Hear, Hear!

Volumes say it all at the moment, there's a glut on the supply side that needs to be sold and the bidders know there is no pressure to pay upwards for it. Until this situation is changed, or something else emerges to ignite a rally there'll be no action.

Think of it this way....miners need to feed their children and fuel their drug habits, buyers just can sit and wait for the moment.  Tongue
steelhunter
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July 17, 2011, 12:49:34 PM
 #18

there's a wall @ 13 and 13.02, therefore almostly no wall to higher levels (only 1270 BTC to 13.6 USD), and this could simply ignite the-so-long-and-faithfully-waiting rally. So what's holding us?

By the time a "rally" does actually happen, we'll probably only be rallying up to prices at or lower than the prices at which people began predicting there'd be a rally.  The rally predictions have been going on for well over a week now.

Hear, Hear!

Volumes say it all at the moment, there's a glut on the supply side that needs to be sold and the bidders know there is no pressure to pay upwards for it. Until this situation is changed, or something else emerges to ignite a rally there'll be no action.

Think of it this way....miners need to feed their children and fuel their drug habits, buyers just can sit and wait for the moment.  Tongue

You forgot human's greed factor Smiley The longer market is "dead" (like right now), the greeder become most buyers("OMG I'LL MISS A RALLY, I'LL BETA BUY HIGHER!!!111").
And most miners don't do this as a primary job(it seems silly to me to count on btc mining only and investing what you can't afford to lose), thus "feeding children" is not connected to bitcoin anyway. Miners know the price for coin. They just need some more time.
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July 17, 2011, 06:57:07 PM
 #19

steelhunter,

miners are just as greedy as anybody else. Every week the market is flooded with 50.000 new bitcoins. They will sell those coins to be sure that other miners wont sell first as long as the price is high!

Feel free to donate: 1JRfgDwga27bh4mfjXqATRTL5mEPQtgHfQ
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July 17, 2011, 08:16:04 PM
 #20

All other things being equal, I'm perfectly happy to sit on my bitcoins until the market is more favorable.

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