bustabit – The original crash game

[oryeger]

Anyone knows what is APY from bankroll investing after the change to the commission  ?

[oryeger]

Anyone knows what is APY from bankroll investing after the change to the commission  ?

You can piece it together from https://dicesites.com/bustabit

Hard to predict exactly, but I divested most of my funds, as the returns were pretty low (and put some more in bustadice which had higher returns).


Although there can still be some potential. Like on 2022-1-1 I invested 1.03 BTC into the bankroll (all I had in my account at the time) as a whale was playing and was just annihilating the site. Whales often have a tendency to keep gambling until the odds catch up with them,  and now, a week later, that 1.03 BTC is worth 1.16 BTC. But that's no where near typical returns, and was really just because I was lucky and timed the investment after the whale had won so much money under the assumption that he'd probably return his winnings back into the site.

But yeah, bustabit investing is nothing like the early days

I looked at the above website but couldn`t find a way to extract the data collected. (edit: in second thought I can view the source of the site and copy the data._
also tried looking at https://www.bustabit.com/bankroll_stats.csv, that data is missing the bankroll at the time, but I guess it chnages live every roll so it's hard to give one number. it it fair to say it's low single digits return nowadays?

kinda hard to find a way to park your btc today. is bustadice higher return because of the different bankroll and EV compared to bustabit?

another question - from the .csv data looks like sometimes commission it taken from negative profit days. is it a mistake?

[devans]

Estimating the bankroll's rate of return is difficult because of how many variables there are, but I'll give it a shot:

In 2021, bustabit saw 27,398,415 XDR in gross gaming revenue and the bankroll's current size is 39,339,068 XDR. Let's assume that the gross gaming revenue will be the same going forwards and let's also assume that the commission rate will stay the same at its current 80.9%. Further assuming there are no investments or divestments, that represents an estimated return of 5,233,097 XDR or 13.3% for bustabit's bankroll in 2022.

In reality, players won't win/lose exactly the same amount they did in the past, the commission rate will continue to change with the size of the bankroll and Bitcoin's price and investors will add to and remove from the bankroll. These things are difficult to model, though, and require more assumptions of their own.

For bustadice it's even more difficult because its revenue is less consistent and the bankroll is still recovering from a loss in early 2021. Using the same methodology as above I arrive at an estimated rate of return of only 0.3% per year. In reality, its average annual revenue is larger than it was in 2021 and the bankroll will probably decrease in size once it reaches its all-time high profit again and it starts paying the commission again.

another question - from the .csv data looks like sometimes commission it taken from negative profit days. is it a mistake?

The commission is taken in real time whenever the bankroll's profit reaches a new ATH, so that can happen when players lose enough to generate a commission for bustabit and then win it back on the same day.

[Timetwister]

Estimating the bankroll's rate of return is difficult because of how many variables there are, but I'll give it a shot:

In 2021, bustabit saw 27,398,415 XDR in gross gaming revenue and the bankroll's current size is 39,339,068 XDR. Let's assume that the gross gaming revenue will be the same going forwards and let's also assume that the commission rate will stay the same at its current 80.9%. Further assuming there are no investments or divestments, that represents an estimated return of 5,233,097 XDR or 13.3% for bustabit's bankroll in 2022.

In reality, players won't win/lose exactly the same amount they did in the past, the commission rate will continue to change with the size of the bankroll and Bitcoin's price and investors will add to and remove from the bankroll. These things are difficult to model, though, and require more assumptions of their own.

For bustadice it's even more difficult because its revenue is less consistent and the bankroll is still recovering from a loss in early 2021. Using the same methodology as above I arrive at an estimated rate of return of only 0.3% per year. In reality, its average annual revenue is larger than it was in 2021 and the bankroll will probably decrease in size once it reaches its all-time high profit again and it starts paying the commission again.

Where can I see Bustadice's daily wagered history? Something like https://www.bustabit.com/bankroll_stats.csv for Bustadice.

What would happen to these websites if for some reason you couldn't work on them anymore?

[Timetwister]

Where can I see Bustadice's daily wagered history? Something like https://www.bustabit.com/bankroll_stats.csv for Bustadice.

You mean: https://bustadice.com/bankroll_stats.csv ?

@Daniel on a side note, it'd be kinda nice to have a .html version (e.g. a formatted table) of those stats, right now the .csv is hard to read unless you import it into a spreadsheet

Exactly. I guess the formula to calculate fees is the same. btcxdr_360d_average*current BTC/55000000

[devans]

Exactly. I guess the formula to calculate fees is the same. btcxdr_360d_average*current BTC/55000000

For bustadice the factor is 80,000,000 instead of 55,000,000, but apart from that it is the same.

[Timetwister]

Exactly. I guess the formula to calculate fees is the same. btcxdr_360d_average*current BTC/55000000

For bustadice the factor is 80,000,000 instead of 55,000,000, but apart from that it is the same.

What would happen to these websites if you weren't able to operate them anymore?

[devans]

That depends on why I'm not able to operate them anymore, but I assume you're thinking about a bus-type situation. I've taken precautions to ensure that even in the worst case at a minimum bustabit can be wound down cleanly. I can't promise that bustabit and bustadice continue operating without me, but everyone including bankroll investors would be able to safely withdraw.

[Tellek Garing]

How can you think its okay to permanently ban a loyal user based on nothing but your own judgement?

Isn't it his site?

Don't you think he should be able to ban whoever the hell he wants for whatever reason he wants?

The internet is big, go find help or lose your money somewhere that wants your action.

Don't be so ignorant.

There are certain legislative laws that oppose the action of banning users without a valid reason that are in place specifically due to casinos banning players who win

That right there are laws against the unlawful ban on casino users with any evidence but that law mostly works on physical fiat casinos sites that regulatory compliance, but in most online cryptocurrency casino opposite is the case.

The is now enforcement of such law in online casinos which is why most of the issues of ban accounts never get resolved by fraudulent casinos who hide under the guise of anonymous to ban users without any explanation or evidence to back their claims for banning such users.

[devans]

I'm sure that we can all agree that banning a player because they obviously have a gambling problem is as valid a reason as can be. To stay with your comparison to brick and mortar casinos, it's akin to someone screaming in the lobby that they have a gambling problem and then complaining about the casino not allowing them to gamble anymore.

[Timetwister]

Commission rate:   98.7%

lol

[logfiles]

Devans, what would happen to these websites if you weren't able to operate them anymore?

You asked the same question in February, and he replied to you just a few posts above on this page. I am not sure why you don't even bother reading the replies.

That depends on why I'm not able to operate them anymore, but I assume you're thinking about a bus-type situation. I've taken precautions to ensure that even in the worst case at a minimum bustabit can be wound down cleanly. I can't promise that bustabit and bustadice continue operating without me, but everyone including bankroll investors would be able to safely withdraw.

[Timetwister]

That depends on why I'm not able to operate them anymore, but I assume you're thinking about a bus-type situation. I've taken precautions to ensure that even in the worst case at a minimum bustabit can be wound down cleanly. I can't promise that bustabit and bustadice continue operating without me, but everyone including bankroll investors would be able to safely withdraw.

Is there some emergency auto withdrawal mechanism?

[devans]

No, it would require manual intervention. An automated solution isn't possible as the majority of funds are stored in a cold wallet. And you would still need to request your withdrawal to a specific address and authenticate it using your login credentials as you would any other withdrawal.

[DarKSpectrE]

Wow, it's been a while. Used to play this open-sourced game religiously back then when it was new. Good times.

[logfiles]

Hi @devans, I came across another site that seems suspicious (theluckybust.com)

They claim to be the original crash game, yet the domain is as new as March this year.


I think they should also be included in the List of Fraudulent sites that are unauthorized to use the bustabit name and brand, making false representations about their relationship to bustabit and/or plagiarizing bustabit's website or Sites that are violating the terms of bustabit's open source license and should not be considered trustworthy

[stomachgrowls]

^
If we do take some sneak peek on this link
https://www.bustabit.com/license.txt

We could already see a long list and sooner or later that name mentioned will really be added up on the list.They can make claims all they do like
to be the first crash game or be the original but people would find the truth sooner or later on whose the origin of all crash games
which is Busta and handsdown to that. 

[yahoo62278]

Hi @devans, I came across another site that seems suspicious (theluckybust.com)

They claim to be the original crash game, yet the domain is as new as March this year.


I think they should also be included in the List of Fraudulent sites that are unauthorized to use the bustabit name and brand, making false representations about their relationship to bustabit and/or plagiarizing bustabit's website or Sites that are violating the terms of bustabit's open source license and should not be considered trustworthy

Might take a look at 8bethub.com as well since they appear to be copying terms from luckybust and have a similar look to bustabit. I'm not calling them out just yet, but seems odd.

[devans]

Thanks to both of you for bringing them to my attention. Both LuckyBust and 8bethub are obviously plagiarizing bustabit.com and bustadice.com including some of our code, sometimes in pretty hilarious ways. For example, LuckyBust didn't even bother to change the name of bustabit's operating company (Apis N.V.) when they copied our terms of service 🤦‍♂️

I've left 8betbust an appropriate trust rating on bitcointalk.org and I'll add both websites to bustabit's license.txt file. Apart from that all we can do is try to warn players of shady operators like that.

[JollyGood]

It had been quite some time since I last posted in this thread. I found an image that I intended to post to but never got round to doing it. It just so happened I was on the website back months ago and waited around for a few minutes to see what was happening... then this happened:

572x winning on Crash does not happen every day.... or does it?