Bitcoin Forum
December 09, 2016, 07:58:52 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin growth - The Long View  (Read 12331 times)
TraderTimm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 01:13:16 PM
 #1

Since the market lull and relative stability around the 14.00, there have been a few topics posted regarding how to spread the word about bitcoin. I understand the client isn't exactly what you would want to hand your middle-aged mother and say 'go buy things', but we're still in the early stages.

But how early?

The closest comparison I can draw is the growth of web servers on the internet, or the web in general. According to the bitcoin maps posted here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Map

Specifically, this one:



The estimated number of 'active' nodes is a little north of 37,500. (See imperi's post below.) Of course, this omits clients which are installed and only started when specific payments have to be made, but for our purposes it is close enough. (Even if we assume a number like 100,000 it won't make that much of a difference as you will see.)

If we take a graph of known websites (which of course assumes 1 site = 1 server, which would've been more accurate in the 90's versus now - but even then, interesting stuff) we can see the growth curve here:



Based on where we are now, I'd have to say we are in the apparent 'flatline' of the growth curve. (Roughly in the 95 - 96 timeframe.) This is purely focusing on number of nodes. I don't see this as a bad thing, you have to start somewhere, after all. But the future portends quite interesting numbers.

But, you say "The client looks like a gray piece of crap! Who wants to use it!!??" well, take a look at one of the first web pages:



1993 looked pretty 'gray' and 'crappy' too. But it didn't stop the people who believed in the underlying premise. Which reminds me of where we are now. A core of entrepreneurs, techs, crypto-geeks and dreamers.

Hell, the first web server wasn't much to look at either:



The first bitcoin client running on someone's desktop probably wasn't much easier on the eyes. In short, we do have a long way to go, but I think the journey is worth taking. This summary statement on the web is a good start for 'taking the long view' :

Quote
Like earlier attempts at building a "global information space", the Web was designed in response to the information management needs of large-scale, institutional science. Tim Berners-Lee was able to build upon previous technologies and incorporate ideas from previous systems to meet these needs. His emphasis on decentralization, use of existing infrastructure, and decision to make WWW technology freely available enabled it to spread and grow quickly. The 1993 decision to allow commercial uses of the Internet, and suitability of Web technology for e-commerce, resulted in explosive economically-fueled growth. In the process of its remarkable growth, however, some of the properties of the early web were de-emphasized (e.g. symmetry between reading and writing).

(Taken from here: http://dret.net/lectures/web-spring10/history#%2830%29 )

I'd rewrite this for bitcoin as follows:

Quote
Like earlier attempts at building a "global currency", the bitcoin network was designed in response to decentralized transaction needs of large-scale systems. Satoshi was able to build upon previous technologies and incorporate ideas from previous systems to meet these needs. His emphasis on decentralization, encryption, proof-of-work, use of existing infrastructure, and decision to make bitcoin technology freely available enabled it to spread and grow quickly.

Keep your eyes on the horizon, we haven't even begun to climb the dizzying peaks of success.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
1481270332
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481270332

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481270332
Reply with quote  #2

1481270332
Report to moderator
1481270332
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481270332

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481270332
Reply with quote  #2

1481270332
Report to moderator
1481270332
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481270332

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481270332
Reply with quote  #2

1481270332
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
imperi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196


View Profile
July 15, 2011, 01:23:03 PM
 #2



Normal scale




Log scale


This shows how many connected nodes there are to Bitcoin since December. The first date displayed is December 18, 2010, and the last date displayed here is July 12, 2011. I used the data from http://dump.bitcoin.it/misc, and counted the number of occurrences for Status:"Up" for each day. As you can see, Bitcoin is not dying.  

To clarify the above quote, a node is someone running the Bitcoin client.
BitcoinPorn
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560


Posts: 69


View Profile WWW
July 15, 2011, 01:27:30 PM
 #3

Keep your eyes on the horizon, we haven't even begun to climb the dizzying peaks of success.

TL;DR  BUY BUY BUY.

For the long term that is Smiley

And I agree.

TraderTimm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 01:37:24 PM
 #4

Keep your eyes on the horizon, we haven't even begun to climb the dizzying peaks of success.

TL;DR  BUY BUY BUY.

For the long term that is Smiley

And I agree.

I understand your enthusiasm, but I'm focusing on the active nodes in the network only. I suppose we would see where demand takes us, but I don't want this post to be relegated to the 'speculation' sub-forum.

Yes, we have some interesting months ahead of us, I agree Smiley

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 01:55:21 PM
 #5

how would you acct for a btc enthusiast like myself who never opens up his client unless he needs to?  and i do that only b/c i'm afraid of an attack.
TraderTimm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 02:24:20 PM
 #6

how would you acct for a btc enthusiast like myself who never opens up his client unless he needs to?  and i do that only b/c i'm afraid of an attack.

Well, I did include a disclaimer:

Quote
The estimated number of 'active' nodes is a little north of 37,500. (See imperi's post below.) Of course, this omits clients which are installed and only started when specific payments have to be made, but for our purposes it is close enough. (Even if we assume a number like 100,000 it won't make that much of a difference as you will see.)

Even if we include an upper bound of clients that are 'periodic', we're not anywhere near the initial growth curve just yet. I still believe we'll get there due to network effects, though.



fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
wareen
Millionaire
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 742

bitcoin-austria.at


View Profile
July 15, 2011, 02:26:59 PM
 #7

There are lots of unknown factors in the estimation of the current Bitcoin users/nodes. For example the data from dump.mybitcoin.it does not contain my 24/7 node at all and another one I know of is always shown as down. Some other forum user reported his node missing as well, so I would take that data only as a very rough baseline.

Most people I introduced to Bitcoin use an online wallet service exclusively or just fire up their instance when they need it etc... Taking all this into account, I would even go so far as to estimate the number of global Bitcoin users somewhere closer to 200k. Of course I might be far off but it does not really matter much, as OP correctly pointed out.

As for the future growth: it is far from certain that we will win the battle for the online currency of choice - hence the analogy to the growth phase of the Internet might quickly break down. There are big corporations and maybe even states which could come up with a compelling alternative (compelling to the masses that is) or simply cripple the growth of the Bitcoin economy by forbidding merchants to legally accept Bitcoin or at least forbid them to accept it when they want to offer paying with credit cards as well.

Nobody knows the future - I am optimistic by nature, but we have still much work ahead!
oOoOo
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238


View Profile
July 15, 2011, 02:49:48 PM
 #8

Here is a chart of total Facebook users over the years. I'm not sure where we are here, but it's certainly not 600m:


And another one, this time it's app-store d/ls. Again, where we are in this, is anyones guess:


.
klaus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 02:50:22 PM
 #9

I agree 100%.

We've just reached the 'hello nerds world' level.

'Hello World' is when there is a bitcoin coverstory on a printed big nationwide newspaper.

bitmessage:BM-2D9c1oAbkVo96zDhTZ2jV6RXzQ9VG3A6f1​
threema:HXUAMT96
flug
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 280



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 03:07:23 PM
 #10

The internet created a space that supported a certain class of inventions. In the early days, some people would have seen a blank space whilst others would have a seen a space overflowing with potential.

Space is a difficult thing to quantify until its potential has been realized, but in Bitcoin I sense something whose implications we've barely begun to realize.
foggyb
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1302


View Profile
July 15, 2011, 03:16:42 PM
 #11

Here is a graph of the the price of WonderBread. I'm sure it has something to do with the price of bitcoin, I just don't know what.

OgNasty
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2030


Powered by NastyFans


View Profile WWW
July 15, 2011, 03:32:49 PM
 #12

_/   <--- The trend is up!

BITSLER                 ▄███
               ▄████▀
             ▄████▀
           ▄████▀  ▄██▄
         ▄████▀    ▀████▄
       ▄████▀        ▀████▄
     ▄████▀            ▀████▄
   ▄████▀                ▀████▄
 ▄████▀ ▄████▄      ▄████▄ ▀████▄
█████   ██████      ██████   █████
 ▀████▄ ▀████▀      ▀████▀ ▄████▀
   ▀████▄                ▄████▀
     ▀████▄            ▄████▀
       ▀████▄        ▄████▀
         ▀████▄    ▄████▀
           ▀████▄▄████▀
             ▀██████▀
               ▀▀▀▀
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄            
▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀    ▄▄█▄▄ ▀▀▄         
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄      
█  ▀▄▄  ▀█▀▀ ▄      ▀████   ▀▀▄   
█ █▄  ▀▄   ▀████       ▀▀ ▄██▄ ▀▀▄
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█  ▀▀       ▀▄▄ ▀████      ▄▄▄▀▀▀  █
█            ▄ ▀▄    ▄▄▄▀▀▀   ▄▄  █
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
█ ▄▄   ███   ▀██  █           ▀▀  █ 
█ ███  ▀██       █        ▄▄      █ 
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀  
▀▄            █        ▀▀      █  
▀▀▄   ███▄  █   ▄▄          █   
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀    
▀▀▄   █   ▀▀▄▄▄▀▀▀         
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▄▄▀▀▀▀              
              ▄▄▄██████▄▄▄
          ▄▄████████████████▄▄
        ▄██████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████▄
▄     ▄█████▀             ▀█████▄
██▄▄ █████▀                ▀█████
 ████████            ▄██      █████
  ████████▄         ███▀       ████▄
  █████████▀▀     ▄███▀        █████
   █▀▀▀          █████         █████
     ▄▄▄         ████          █████
   █████          ▀▀           ████▀
    █████                     █████
     █████▄                 ▄█████
      ▀█████▄             ▄█████▀
        ▀██████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██████▀
          ▀▀████████████████▀▀
              ▀▀▀██████▀▀▀
            ▄▄▄███████▄▄▄
         ▄█▀▀▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▀▀▀█▄
       █▀▀ ▄█████████████▄ ▀▀█
     █▀▀ ███████████████████ ▀▀█
    █▀ ███████████████████████ ▀█
   █▀ ███████████████▀▀ ███████ ▀█
 ▄█▀ ██████████████▀      ▀█████ ▀█▄
███ ███████████▀▀            ▀▀██ ███
███ ███████▀▀                     ███
███ ▀▀▀▀                          ███
▀██▄                             ▄██▀
  ▀█▄                            ▀▀
    █▄       █▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█
     █▄      ▀█████████▀
      ▀█▄      ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
        ▀▀█▄▄  ▄▄▄
            ▀▀█████
[]
Elwar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


www.bitpools.com


View Profile WWW
July 15, 2011, 03:35:20 PM
 #13

I would think that the closest comparison would be PayPal.


http://www.bitpools.com
Pool your bitcoins with others. Vote on solutions using the Bitcoin blockchain. Keep your bitcoins in your cold storage until you find a solution you like.
Links and Reviews of useful every day places to spend bitcoins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943143.0
oOoOo
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238


View Profile
July 15, 2011, 04:17:33 PM
 #14

Here is another chart about something. I'm not sure what it's about, but it looks just like the rest, so I figured it might just fit in well:

BitcoinPorn
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560


Posts: 69


View Profile WWW
July 15, 2011, 04:20:15 PM
 #15

Hmmm... I see what you are saying.

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/sm/custom/1f055c5fe4.jpg *embed image clipped to link*

Shinobi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196


View Profile
July 15, 2011, 04:31:34 PM
 #16

But, you say "The client looks like a gray piece of crap! Who wants to use it!!??" well, take a look at one of the first web pages:

[PIC]

In 1993 looked pretty 'gray' and 'crappy' too. But it didn't stop the people who believed in the underlying premise. Which reminds me of where we are now. A core of entrepreneurs, techs, crypto-geeks and dreamers.

So you are saying that the similarity of the aesthetic is a valid parallel? This is the kind of post that proves to me how poorly-reasoned you die-hards are. While the Yahoo page was "ugly" it was nevertheless immediately useful and user-friendly. If anything, the picture you post shows how little the main function of the page has changed. There was a bar to input your search query and a buttong to click to search. While the quality of the search results has drastically been refined, the search process hasn't changed one iota.


_______
Thinking of using a cheap, yet reliable VPN? Go with PrivateInternetAccess. Not a referral link. Just a satisfied customer!
BillX
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 112


View Profile
July 15, 2011, 04:33:06 PM
 #17

Here is a chart on Canadian vs American teams in the NHL. Notice how one thrives while the other suffers. That must be just like the struggle between the Bitcoin and the Dollar (CAN or US).

BitcoinPorn
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560


Posts: 69


View Profile WWW
July 15, 2011, 04:43:20 PM
 #18

I have a beta chart here, closed source, so I expect no one to trust it initially, but this is my predictions of what the next set of charts or graphs could possibly look like.

http://www.hbp.usm.my/itsupport/db/surveydb/images/ChartTypes.JPG *embed image clipped to link*

Piper67
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1008



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 04:44:04 PM
 #19

I have a beta chart here, closed source, so I expect no one to trust it initially, but this is my predictions of what the next set of charts or graphs could possibly look like.



We know the meta beta chart can't be far behind now.
TraderTimm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
July 15, 2011, 04:47:10 PM
 #20

Well, I'm glad at least that those who have very little to contribute to the conversation at least have learned how to embed images in their posts. I'm so proud of you.

For those who get what I was going for, yes, there will be challenges - but I think bitcoin can grow in the same ways the early web grew.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!