CoinTerra announces <$3/GH January pricing and new product availability

[monkee]

yes, i know how difficulty works

the losses will be fairly consistent throughout the various batches.

i guess that is one opinion, just not mine

[Puppet]

yes, i know how difficulty works

the losses will be fairly consistent throughout the various batches.

i guess that is one opinion, just not mine

Its not just an opion, its math:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

If we assume most of these asic vendors will indeed ship their 28nm according to their promises, 8PH will be added to the network before the end of this year, and another 7+PH is the months thereafter, If you dont believe they will, then neither will your presumed profitable asics ship, so it doesnt really change a thing, just delays everything. That 8PH is a very conservative tally that doesnt include a lot of potentially big players like ActiveMining or next gen chips from either Avalon or AsicMiner and isnt updated for Cointerra's second batch nor 2 new asics announced today.  10PH in december (+whatever delay you expect) and another 10PH in the month after is more realistic IMO.

An added 10PH means a difficulty of ~1.5 billion and doubling that, well, you guessed it, ~3 billion a month later. At those difficulties and current BTC exchange rate, your $14000 2TH miner will generate $2,660 in the first month and  $1,330 in the next. Good luck with that ROI.

[PuertoLibre]

This is a prediction made on 6/14/2013 of where the income from a 70gh/s Avalon should be in the future. The drift can be seen as green shows what block of time should occupy that income. The green which highlights the current date.



Hopefully, the next difficulty correction puts my prediction back on track in the next 24 hours. 3 Months later and it is pretty much spot on though, which is a bad thing.

[PuertoLibre]

Any word if the CoinTerra chips specs have been nailed down? I would like to make a similar prediction for their miner as well.

[PuertoLibre]

Damn, it only dropped to .3 BTC per day per 70GH/s. Well, at least that puts me at only 3 days off the previous prediction.

Anyone know the specs on a CoinTerra? Would love to do some charts...

[willphase]

Damn, it only dropped to .3 BTC per day per 70GH/s. Well, at least that puts me at only 3 days off the previous prediction.

Anyone know the specs on a CoinTerra? Would love to do some charts...

Each chip is slated at 500Gh, and 0.6 W/Gh - so 2Th unit is 4 chips and power of 1.2Kw.  I will try and find sources for this, and update this post.

Will

[itod]

What are you babbling about? Hashrate is already growing by ~100% per month now (*), and in december and january, it will probably grow a lot faster than that if only a fraction of those 28nm asic providers manage to ship what they promise;  that means hardware prices per GH will drop by 50% or more per month.  Thats completely logical and to be expected. February delivery batches will cost ~$1.5/GH if there will be any and march delivery will be sold for <$1/GH.

Exactly. People seem to forget how insanely large profit margins for these chips are, they are conservatively estimated in 2.000% range right now. Manufacturers can easily afford to cut the prices 50% for each consecutive month through good part of 2014. Expect to pay few hundreds US$ for a TH/s machine in first half of 2014.

[aerobatic]

Damn, it only dropped to .3 BTC per day per 70GH/s. Well, at least that puts me at only 3 days off the previous prediction.
Anyone know the specs on a CoinTerra? Would love to do some charts...

Apart from the specs theyve already released, what additional specs are you asking for?

the specs theyve released so far are listed within the product description of each product on their web site and also posted in their other forum posts...
http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-miner-january-batch/
http://cointerra.com/cointerra-announces-highest-performance-2-terahash-per-second-bitcoin-asic-mining-rig/

to summarise what they said, its a 500 GH chip, at <0.6w/gh/s (the release above said 0.5 w/gh)

Its made by Global Foundries in their 28nm HPP process, a voltage of 0.765v.

They also said (in this release) that some of their chips run faster at 700 GH and that they might decide to charge users extra to get the faster chips.

http://cointerra.com/cointerra-introduces-two-low-cost-bitcoin-asic-mining-solutions/

[PuertoLibre]

Edit: Corrected mistakes..couldn't find the official price for the 500Gh/s unit.

Cointerra TerraMiner 2 (Prediction for 1 year into the future):
Note: I included a price chart as to how much the Miner should cost as you lose profitability.

http://s11.postimg.org/rwwm7ncw3/Terra_Miner_2_1_TH.png

Cointerra TerraMiner 4 (Prediction for 1 year into the future):
Note: I included a price chart as to how much the Miner should cost as you lose profitability.

http://s9.postimg.org/hcigp57fz/Terra_Miner_4_2_TH.png

[Sitarow]

If the network increases at 20% then by the time they release their hardware. Expect to make this much a day if its only 20% increase per 12 days.



See for yourself copy the document and give it a go.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing

[DPoS]

yes, i know how difficulty works

the losses will be fairly consistent throughout the various batches.

i guess that is one opinion, just not mine

Its not just an opion, its math:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

If we assume most of these asic vendors will indeed ship their 28nm according to their promises, 8PH will be added to the network before the end of this year, and another 7+PH is the months thereafter, If you dont believe they will, then neither will your presumed profitable asics ship, so it doesnt really change a thing, just delays everything. That 8PH is a very conservative tally that doesnt include a lot of potentially big players like ActiveMining or next gen chips from either Avalon or AsicMiner and isnt updated for Cointerra's second batch nor 2 new asics announced today.  10PH in december (+whatever delay you expect) and another 10PH in the month after is more realistic IMO.

An added 10PH means a difficulty of ~1.5 billion and doubling that, well, you guessed it, ~3 billion a month later. At those difficulties and current BTC exchange rate, your $14000 2TH miner will generate $2,660 in the first month and  $1,330 in the next. Good luck with that ROI.

Just like Avalon delivered all their chip orders right? Klondikes running everywhere I suppose

BFL up to recent order delivery too right?  That Monarch all set to ship on time

blah blah..  you sound like you just don't want anyone else to mine but you...  pretty transparent

[Bocarte]

   COINTERRA ROCKS

I will buy 2nd batch...I want have got ASIC 4th generation at home and watching them...

[Puppet]

Just like Avalon delivered all their chip orders right? Klondikes running everywhere I suppose

BFL up to recent order delivery too right?  That Monarch all set to ship on time

blah blah..  you sound like you just don't want anyone else to mine but you...  pretty transparent

You dont understand it, do you ? Either these companies do deliver and you will be screwed because of the incredible and unprecedented increase in difficulty
Or these companies will not deliver and you will be screwed because you dont get any hardware in a timely fashion.
In that sense, yes, exactly like BFL or Avalon.

The only way you can reasonably expect a decent profit is if your order does get shipped and most of the others dont. That may have worked for a few Avalon customers, even some BFL customers, it may work for some KNC or whichever 28nm chip ships first, but statistically, thats a stupid bet. LIke I said, satoshidice gives you better odds.

As for me wanting others not to mine; IM long out of the mining game, but even if I werent, all these products are sold out, not much point trying to convince people now, much too late.

[willphase]

You dont understand it, do you ? Either these companies do deliver and you will be screwed because of the incredible and unprecedented increase in difficulty
Or these companies will not deliver and you will be screwed because you dont get any hardware in a timely fashion.
In that sense, yes, exactly like BFL or Avalon.

QFT - the only real way to make profit mining is to spread your bets with all the companies, but always be in the first day orders.  One of them will pay off (e.g. gigavps buying 3 minirigs from BFL on day 1) and that pays for all the other companies that don't.

Will

[Puppet]

QFT - the only real way to make profit mining is to spread your bets with all the companies, but always be in the first day orders.  

The one winning horse you will have backed will be offset by all the losing ones.
Fact is the sum of all preorders and upcoming orders (far) exceeds the mining profit thats to be had. Buying equally from all suppliers just guarantees you get an average result, which is negative.

The only way for your strategy to work is if most companies do send out early orders in a mostly timely fashion, but subsequently struggle to produce and ship their long order queues, like BFL has been struggling for years now.
Its possible, but I wouldnt bet on most/all of them being equally inept managing a supply chain.

[willphase]

The one winning horse you will have backed will be offset by all the losing ones.

I think if you had placed first day orders with all the companies offering ASICS, you would have made positive money, even with the few that either ran away with money or have been very late to deliver

Will

[Biomech]

those guys are just grasping for straws right now, offloading as much risk as possible to the suc..err buyers, given the difficulty gap.

ladies & gents we are now finally in the endgame, expect to see many asic hardware manufacturer to start losing money by next year and fold shop.  unless you have a very thoroughly understanding of what is going on and what is happening in the next few months, your best bet is just to buy bitcoins directly instead of asic hardware if want to be in the game.  Personally i am just holding cash and waiting.

By fold up shop you mean mine like hell, right? :-)

I mean the r&d, manufacturing, and shipping cost basis of those hardware will no longer support a profit with the difficulty increase and instead cost more than income.  Look at the asic blades, their cost basis is probably 1-2 btc, it was selling for 50 btc, now it's around 4 btc.  In a few months this will no longer be profitable to manufacture.

Now look at a new manufacturer such as cointerra who has not made any profit yet from the first few asic waves like am already done, they are just hitting the market at those stressed prices to begin with and the situation will only get worse, for them it's not only the hardware cost but also the r&d cost. Yes the chips will be cheaper to make as they pack more gh, but the endgame is still bleak with THs of difficulty all coming online from various late comers trying to make the final wave.

Bitfury barely made it in to squeeze out a good profit, anything new coming out dec+ will have a very difficult time unless btc/usd increases drastically which looks doubtful.

The writing is on the walls.

EDIT: for anyone confused i am talking about asic manufacturers only in above post, for small retail miners the game is already up.

I'm going to have to disagree on several points.

First, the cost to manufacture chips is pretty miniscule. The initial cost is development, and making the mask. Once that's done, it's pretty much just the cost of the silicon and the manufacturing run. Once the NRE is out of the way, they can lower their prices substantially. If they are smart, they will do it incrementally in response to market conditions, thus making enough profit to repeat the cycle on a higher order chip next time round without having to do the pre order thing. Face it, AMD, Intel, and their ilk are NOT selling 'obsolete' chips at a loss. They have recovered their R&D costs and have continued to manufacture the chip on it's actual cost basis, then market it for what they can get. I doubt they ever get below 100 percent markup over all costs before discontinuing a line.

As for the game being up for the small operator?

I think not. I think the game for the small operator RIGHT NOW is wait and see. You are looking at an arms race for who can deliver better, faster, and cheaper $/BTC/<insert fiat>  per GH/s or even TH/s. Sit and wait a few months and you'll see all sorts of first gen hardware in the secondary market for satoshis on the BTC initial price. Just like in the PC world, today's Badass is tomorrow's dumpster treasure. If you can get it damn near free, it WLL give you a positive ROI fairly quickly unless the cost of electricity skyrockets. Every gamer, whether in business, life, or chess, has to be able to adapt to changes in the game. This one has so many variables that I think there are still many MANY winning strategies for the little guy. You just have to fake patience.

[Puppet]

Just like in the PC world, today's Badass is tomorrow's dumpster treasure. If you can get it damn near free, it WLL give you a positive ROI fairly quickly unless the cost of electricity skyrockets.

There is no reason to assume that. On the contrary, I dont see why anyone would sell a used/old/ready to ship mining chip or device at a price that would guarantee a quick ROI, be it now or next year.
In the dumpster you can find GPU's and early FPGA's now, and you may be able to buy them "cheaply", but show me one that I can buy that will ROI in less than a few months. You wont find any. You cant find any thats likely to give a positive ROI at all. Nor will you next year, or the year after.

Also, 28nm asics is more or less the end game for bitcoin mining. We may (but probably wont) see another shrink to 20 or 14nm several years from now, but the sort of quantum leap we are seeing now will never happen again (barring a breakthrough in technology like quantum computers). Because of the dynamics you explained yourself, the prices for these chips will tumble and follow difficulty (with difficulty following chip prices, creating a feedback loop which is why we see exponential growth) until variable production cost meets mining profitability. At that point, which I guestimated in the neighborhood of 1 exahash,  the market will be saturated, production will mostly halt, future difficulty will be predictable and stable (well, influenced only by BTC exchange rate and transaction fees)  and if you agree miners are overbuying, then here is no money to be made by anyone. You will only see miners mining with cheap/free electricity that are operationally profitable, but with a breakeven point on their investment thats beyond their life expectancy.

[eXme]

stop mining start gambling! 

[Puppet]

stop mining start gambling! 

Whats the difference?
Oh right, with gambling at least you have a decent chance of making a profit