Keep it real now the investors are coming onboard

[jago25_98]

 I've read a few articles saying the driving forces between value increase have been:

- international trade,
- illegal trade
- merchant use
- speculation

Well hang on! This is completely forgetting about why I personnally bought a load of Bitcoins - I love it.

All these infernal speculators and none of them ever consider love and passion for a project as a driving force.
I'd say that's a driving force - hope. People want to believe in something.

That's the first thing.
The second thing I see missed in these analyses is personal utility. A migrant worker can send funds home without WesternUnion or whatever. Travelers a no longer reliant on the VISA & Mastercard ATM networks, travelers cheques or cash. Paypal users... well we all know about that.

Love and hope I think can drive BC price to any level, it just depends on how brave people are feeling. If a law is passed somehow destroying it in one country, do people soldier on?

And that's the difference until now - was that crazy bubble spike pure speculation? I don't think so, the price that lead to it I don't think was.

That's what I find striking now about reading the grassroots opinion from the new investors and more mainstream media - they care and look at the price as a source of data, when really it is a reflector of data. Thus, the market looking into itself can find no new knowledge. To that end Bitcoin has really made the woes of capitalism clear. They are so obsessed with greed they can't see see the humanity behind the price.

When I read the news that BC was 200x more now I should have been unreactive. Instead my eyes spun like fruit machines. Very enlightening.

[Vandroiy]

That's what I find striking now about reading the grassroots opinion from the new investors and more mainstream media - they care and look at the price as a source of data, when really it is a reflector of data. Thus, the market looking into itself can find no new knowledge.

You figured out why chartism doesn't work. Now just try to explain that to all the guys staring at the charts babbling about reading the future out of it.

[spruce]

I've read a few articles saying the driving forces between value increase have been:

- international trade,
- illegal trade
- merchant use
- speculation

http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/ and subsequent articles seems to be the origin point of those "drivers."

[Oldminer]

http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/ and subsequent articles seems to be the origin point of those "drivers."

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded.

In the past three months, the value has hundredfolded.

In the past fourteen months, the value has more than thousandfolded".

'Nuff said

[Alex Beckenham]

http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/ and subsequent articles seems to be the origin point of those "drivers."

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded.

In the past three months, the value has hundredfolded.

In the past fourteen months, the value has more than thousandfolded".

'Nuff said

Haha I'm going to use that next time someone tries to compare the bitcoin network to 'folding @ home'.

[billyjoeallen]

Bitcoin is the Linux of currencies. it is developed by amateurs and professionals who are working pro bono because they believe in the project, because they are excited about the project, and because the


It's reasonable to assume that Bitcoin will eventually obtain a market share  of currency similar to the market share Linux enjoys in the operating system market.

[enmaku]

That's what I find striking now about reading the grassroots opinion from the new investors and more mainstream media - they care and look at the price as a source of data, when really it is a reflector of data. Thus, the market looking into itself can find no new knowledge.

You figured out why chartism doesn't work. Now just try to explain that to all the guys staring at the charts babbling about reading the future out of it.

Indeed. Charts can be quite useful and we CAN pull a lot of good information from them, but it's always important to remember that, above all, charts are just a way of looking at data and the data does not drive itself. Data is driven by behavior and to understand the market - to really truly understand it - you need to understand the behavior. I've linked to charts in the past to back up my optimism but those charts merely represent the data which is the result of the behaviors that actually drive my optimism. Charts only show data and they can be manipulated to see whatever you want to see; only when they are used to express an underlying truth are they useful.

[cloon]

yes but the chart analysis depends on mass psychology...(looks like math but is the analytic result of marketpsycology)
so the only influence are the media and the forum (what is not always positive)



and the more people analize, the more predictable is the course.

[enmaku]

yes but the chart analysis depends on mass psychology...(looks like math but is the analytic result of marketpsycology)
so the only influence are the media and the forum (what is not always positive)



and the more people analize, the more predictable is the course.

I always have had a soft spot for game theory, math and crypto - always seemed like an odd combination of interests until there was bitcoin 

[netrin]

All these infernal speculators and none of them ever consider love and passion for a project as a driving force.
I'd say that's a driving force - hope. People want to believe in something.

The 'love' got us into bitcoins, but it does not set the price. I got burned a few times with the thought that selling was treasonous to the community or my own values. But I hardened up. NO profitable investor will recommend you fall in love with an asset and CERTAINLY not a price!

send funds home without WesternUnion or whatever.

Interesting... if they could convert BTC to Zimbabwe dollars in the real.

Bitcoin is the Linux of currencies.... It's reasonable to assume that Bitcoin will eventually obtain a market share  of currency similar to the market share Linux enjoys in the operating system market.

Worth quoting again, Billyjoeallen

[Oldminer]

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded.

In the past three months, the value has hundredfolded.

In the past fourteen months, the value has more than thousandfolded".

'Nuff said

Paging Synaptic to this post 

[netrin]

Paging Synaptic to this post 

Who does he work for anyway?

[Nagle]

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded."

Reality check:


Last 4 weeks on Mt. Gox.

This is a post-bubble long, slow slide. Any questions?

[BillX]

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded."

Reality check:

Never bring up reality in a bitcoin forum. They have no concept as to what that is.

[proudhon]

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded."

Reality check:


Last 4 weeks on Mt. Gox.

This is a post-bubble long, slow slide. Any questions?

Seriously, where did that "In the past month, the value has tenfolded" nonsense come from?

[netrin]

CONTEXT (2011 MAY) Article

http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/ and subsequent articles seems to be the origin point of those "drivers."

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded.

In the past three months, the value has hundredfolded.

In the past fourteen months, the value has more than thousandfolded".

'Nuff said

[notme]

CONTEXT (2011 MAY) Article

http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/ and subsequent articles seems to be the origin point of those "drivers."

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded.

In the past three months, the value has hundredfolded.

In the past fourteen months, the value has more than thousandfolded".

'Nuff said

Yes, no, no (unless you count that one downspike to 0.01, but few traders got that price)

[YoYa]

"In the past month, the value has tenfolded."

Reality check:


Last 4 weeks on Mt. Gox.

This is a post-bubble long, slow slide. Any questions?

Yes.

Why post the same thing in two different threads?

And why does it matter to you to communicate this? Surely it's not to protect others if it's "long, slow slide" as they supposedly have all the warning in the world, so why is it so important to you to come on time and time again to spread the same message of negativity?

Further to that, why no positives that are the alternative?

[CurbsideProphet]

Yes.

Why post the same thing in two different threads?

And why does it matter to you to communicate this? Surely it's not to protect others if it's "long, slow slide" as they supposedly have all the warning in the world, so why is it so important to you to come on time and time again to spread the same message of negativity?

Further to that, why no positives that are the alternative?

I think it was to refute the assertion made by another poster that, "In the past month, the value has tenfolded."  A chart cannot spread negativity, it only represents historical data.  I understand Nagle is a Bitcoin bear, but in this case, he's right.

[YoYa]

Yes.

Why post the same thing in two different threads?

And why does it matter to you to communicate this? Surely it's not to protect others if it's "long, slow slide" as they supposedly have all the warning in the world, so why is it so important to you to come on time and time again to spread the same message of negativity?

Further to that, why no positives that are the alternative?

I think it was to refute the assertion made by another poster that, "In the past month, the value has tenfolded."  A chart cannot spread negativity, it only represents historical data.  I understand Nagle is a Bitcoin bear, but in this case, he's right.

And I don't dispute that, but it's a bit tiresome to see double posts across threads saying the same thing. More importantly a little elaboration wouldn't hurt, how does this post bubble decline compare to other historical bubbles, what else is interesting around his assertions.

I personally lived through the Irish housing bubble, saw money flow like water, big deals being done, and an entire society hang itself on the permanently high plateau assumption. Most people who bought in to that are now trapped in upwards of 150K Eur negative equity.

To call the 30$ blip a bubble is a bit disengenous, bitcoin never reached any of the conditions outlined above, and fell quicker then gave people a chance to assume the bubble mentality of PHP.

So you'll forgive me if I'm a little suspicious when the Bear comes around blowing bubbles on the weekends......