January 2014 prediction and requirements

[Seehank]

Hello everyone,

I was thinking of establishing a 16TH/s farm in January (8x Cointera 2TH/s) machines. However basing on this thread I am a little confused now and my farm seems like a bad idea... Or I just might understand this whole wrong...

Please correct me if I am wrong:

If the prediction is cca. 12PH rise of network which seem legit. Do I understand it correctly that the difficulty in January will be around 12PH x 140mil = 1680+ mil? Is this actually correct?

Code:

Presales Total 2013:        7,704 Thash
Announced Total 2013:       1,803 Thash
Running Total 2014:         7,380 Thash
--------------------------------------------------------------
Combined Total:            16,887 Thash

By January it should be just cca. 12 000...

Code:

1 TH/s = 0.14 mil difficulty
1 PH/s = 140 mil difficulty
1 million difficulty = 7 TH/s
1 billion difficulty = 7 PH/s
1 trillion difficulty = 7 EH/s

Do I understant correctly, that difficulty in January 2014 according to this thread is going to be arround 1800mil?

Please someone with a bit more knowledge tell me if I am correct. That would actually mean thet buying 16TH of power would be worthless according to this table.

Thanks for your time.

Seehank

[tysat]

Everything I've read points towards mining not being worth it anymore.  If you feel like BTC will keep going up relative to $, then you might just want to buy some BTC.

[Seehank]

Everything I've read points towards mining not being worth it anymore.

So the answear to my quiestions is YES, it is going to be 1680mil +... right?

EDIT: To be honest with dif. 1800 in JAN, there is no scenario with + numbers in here: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ ... That sayed it seems like most of the people creating that 17TH/s raise will be doing minuses since JAN. Is this correct?

This just seems strange to me...

[Reaper3]

Wow that's a nice amount of Hashes

[Seehank]

I was thinking about what I wrote up there... I thought it could not have been like that... That would be stupid. Just than I realised and came to this argument:

If the difficulty rises so rapidly so must the of a BTC. That changes averything. My calculations were stupid since I kept the prize of BTC on 140 USD (stupid me) and well since the difficulty rises 17 times so the prize of a BTC must go up. However I have no idea about the rate of change... cant be 17 x 140

That I guess will be a result of the market. Very hard to predict :-/

What do you think?

[Puppet]

Hello everyone,

I was thinking of establishing a 16TH/s farm in January (8x Cointera 2TH/s) machines. However basing on this thread I am a little confused now and my farm seems like a bad idea... Or I just might understand this whole wrong...

Please correct me if I am wrong:

If the prediction is cca. 12PH rise of network which seem legit. Do I understand it correctly that the difficulty in January will be around 12PH x 140mil = 1680+ mil? Is this actually correct?

Code:

Presales Total 2013:        7,704 Thash
Announced Total 2013:       1,803 Thash
Running Total 2014:         7,380 Thash
--------------------------------------------------------------
Combined Total:            16,887 Thash

By January it should be just cca. 12 000...

Code:

1 TH/s = 0.14 mil difficulty
1 PH/s = 140 mil difficulty
1 million difficulty = 7 TH/s
1 billion difficulty = 7 PH/s
1 trillion difficulty = 7 EH/s

Do I understant correctly, that difficulty in January 2014 according to this thread is going to be arround 1800mil?

Please someone with a bit more knowledge tell me if I am correct. That would actually mean thet buying 16TH of power would be worthless according to this table.

Thanks for your time.

Seehank

You are misreading, but you do get the right idea. DnT's tally would result in 8-9PH deployed by early January, the rest would follow during the course of 2014. That number is both optimistic and pessimistic at the same time. Its pessimistic because its not taking in to account or not putting numbers on a fair number of potentially serious players (ActiveMining, LabCoin, ..) , which if all promises pan out, would push that tally well over 10PH before the end of the year. Its optimistic because it would pretty much be the first time ever bitcoin asics ship en masse and on schedule, and we are talking about 6+ companies here. ITs not going to happen, its going to be months later before all that is actually deployed. But that isnt good news, because the delayed shipments may well contain your order too and those totals will still ship sooner or later and utterly screw your profitability.

So you did get the right idea; buying asics is gambling with very very poor odds.

[NEXT]

I call it a game of Lemonade-Stand on Wallstreet  Welcome to pure economics

[utarinues]

If the difficulty rises so rapidly so must the of a BTC. That changes averything. My calculations were stupid since I kept the prize of BTC on 140 USD (stupid me) and well since the difficulty rises 17 times so the prize of a BTC must go up. However I have no idea about the rate of change... cant be 17 x 140

Difficulty does not have direct inpact on BTC/USD price. But if your so sure it does, you might try speculating by buying BTC now when the difficulty is low

[Seehank]

If the difficulty rises so rapidly so must the of a BTC. That changes averything. My calculations were stupid since I kept the prize of BTC on  (stupid me) and well since the difficulty rises 17 times so the prize of a BTC must go up. However I have no idea about the rate of change... cant be 17 x 140

Difficulty does not have direct inpact on BTC/USD price. But if your so sure, you might try speculating by buying BTC now when the difficulty is low

I am anything but sure :-D This was just my logic sort of...