Has BFL found a new way to screw over it's customers, I'll let you be the judge.

[Syke]

That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.

Proof? How about "Tape out August 2013"? Think that's the truth? How about "That 65nm ASIC chip is now powering the majority of the bitcoin network."? Is that the truth? Those are from their current website.

[Threader]

True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

Asicminer is fleecing people with honesty.
BFL is fleecing people with dishonesty.

Subtle but significant difference.

That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.

Proof?

[Puppet]

Growth rate is going to continue to skyrocket until the cost of electricity becomes significant.

Bitfury, 400 GH/s at 300 watts.

Current Difficulty = 112628548 roughly 1 PH/s
Daily income  = $223
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Difficulty at roughly 54 PH/s
Daily income  = $4.13
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Even at 54 PH/s, electricity costs are only 17% for a lot of miners. That's still a profit of $100/mo, so reasonably prices ASICs will still sell at that difficulty. ASIC prices are going to keep plummeting, and the network is going to blow past 54 PH/s. Easily.

Your reasoning is sound, except I am not sure bitfury's could still be produced at a reasonable margin that corresponds to a market price in a 50+PH network. Miners may still want to increase their hashrate, but bitfury wouldnt be able to sell them cheap enough (unless miners would get a multi year investment horizon).

Instead, I used hashfast's chip to calculate the endgame. Spreadsheet can be found here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295270.msg3165331#msg3165331

Depending on electricity cost and other assumptions, you will end up somewhere between 80 and 800PH.

[bcp19]

That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.

Proof? How about "Tape out August 2013"? Think that's the truth? How about "That 65nm ASIC chip is now powering the majority of the bitcoin network."? Is that the truth? Those are from their current website.

On August 19th when they introduced the Monarch and put the 'majority of the network' statement out there is was true.  Just cause times have changed you're demanding they change along with it.  Yet I don't see you tracking down the hundreds of other companies that have made claims that are now not true due to time and change.  Until I see your righteous anger directed at more than 1 company, you are just like yip-yip... a noise a tiny dog makes.

[Syke]

Your reasoning is sound, except I am not sure bitfury's could still be produced at a reasonable margin that corresponds to a market price in a 50+PH network. Miners may still want to increase their hashrate, but bitfury wouldnt be able to sell them cheap enough (unless miners would get a multi year investment horizon).

Right, Bitfury isn't endgame. It's just the best that's currently available. Better stuff will come along.

[Puppet]

Right, Bitfury isn't endgame. It's just the best that's currently available. Better stuff will come along.

But we have the numbers for hashfast, allowing decent calculation for production cost and power effiency . Those specs may or may not be representative of other 28nm designs, but closer than bitfurry at least.

Anyway, no disagreement we will blast past 54PH:

[Syke]

On August 19th when they introduced the Monarch and put the 'majority of the network' statement out there is was true.  Just cause times have changed you're demanding they change along with it.

That "as of Aug 19th" isn't on the webpage. How is a regular customer supposed to know those statements are no long applicable? By leaving deceptive statements on the web page, something that may have been true once before is now simply dishonest.

Yet I don't see you tracking down the hundreds of other companies that have made claims that are now not true due to time and change.

You can thank Josh for being such a great PR person. He just inspires me.

[RoadStress]

Wow. This is actually their lowest blow.

This may be their lowest, but after this i really really want to see their next move. Any bets?

[bcp19]

Wow. This is actually their lowest blow.

This may be their lowest, but after this i really really want to see their next move. Any bets?

Didn't you know, they're taking over Laz's refund offering business so they can get paid for refunding people money.

[bcp19]

On August 19th when they introduced the Monarch and put the 'majority of the network' statement out there is was true.  Just cause times have changed you're demanding they change along with it.

That "as of Aug 19th" isn't on the webpage. How is a regular customer supposed to know those statements are no long applicable? By leaving deceptive statements on the web page, something that may have been true once before is now simply dishonest.

Yet I don't see you tracking down the hundreds of other companies that have made claims that are now not true due to time and change.

You can thank Josh for being such a great PR person. He just inspires me.

You care so much about the customers of 1 company and disregard the millions of other people being taken in regularly by all the other companies following the same practices.  Your compassion definitely has limits.

[PuertoLibre]

On August 19th when they introduced the Monarch and put the 'majority of the network' statement out there is was true.  Just cause times have changed you're demanding they change along with it.

That "as of Aug 19th" isn't on the webpage. How is a regular customer supposed to know those statements are no long applicable? By leaving deceptive statements on the web page, something that may have been true once before is now simply dishonest.

Yet I don't see you tracking down the hundreds of other companies that have made claims that are now not true due to time and change.

You can thank Josh for being such a great PR person. He just inspires me.

You care so much about the customers of 1 company and disregard the millions of other people being taken in regularly by all the other companies following the same practices.  Your compassion definitely has limits.

Or our time online is finite.

If you want me to [attempt to] cripple companies left and right, i'll need a long crow bar to start Tonya Harding' everyone like a war path.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonya_Harding#Attack_on_Nancy_Kerrigan

[Flying Hellfish]

On August 19th when they introduced the Monarch and put the 'majority of the network' statement out there is was true.  

I'm the kind of guy that likes factual evidence, could you point out to me where BFL proved with mathematics and not word games that this statement was true when released please?

You see when I see Josh saying things like (and I am paraphrasing here) well no one else is shipping so obviously we account for the majority of current hash rate I don't see proof.  What I see is someone who is taking credit for all that hash rate yet provided specious reasoning as proof.  Now if BFL had come out and said we have shipped x jally, x LS's, x singles and x mini rigs then we could have undeniable proof that they provided at the time the majority of network hash rate.

It is certainly possible the statement was in fact correct but by not providing proof and by making specious assumptions I feel it's not fair to make a blanket statement like that.  Even if it was worded as an estimation (which it wasn't it was stated as a fact) I still wouldn't believe it, BFL has failed at essentially every public estimate they have made.  It is crystal clear in my mind no one a that company has any estimating or forecasting skills at all.

[mgio]

Hosting contract equipment comes from our bulk production of Monarch cards so contracts will begin to be served in the January / February 2014 time frame.

$10.83/GH for something starting in either January or February? LOL!

I ran the numbers and these look as good as a dead donkey.

Actually this is lowest $/GH ratio available on ASIC market (excluding other BFL cards). Next one is KNCminer Jupeter with 12,48 $/GH (with preorder for November delivery). If BFL will activate this service even on February - these options are sort of the same by profitability.

BFL is very good at marketing and have great vision of future. Their delivery totally sucks, though. But everything is already foreseen by them.

Soon difficulty will skyrocket with cosmic rates. To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact - pay money and receive mining power instantly, without shipping and device setup and etc.. Plus, this is better for ASIC producer too - they do not need to process all these orders with shipping and packing. Just receive chips from manufacture, assemble on board, plug board into server rack.
Soon ASIC producing companies will start to switch to this contract delivery model. They must be stupid to leave this opportunity. And BFL does this now not because they have technology, but just to establish themselves as general provider of such service. Real result will be provided by them in two weeks after publicly announced date .
Its just their work model - promise thing that will be demanded in future, collect invests, promise, deliver when its not relevant anymore.
It looks totally promising, just don't invest anything until you will see that this service is online.

You are way off.

First, Cointerra is MUCH cheaper at about $3/GH/s. That's a factor of more than 3!

HashFast second batch is cheaper too at $8.75/GH/s and they are supposed to deliver in November!

[greyhawk]

It is crystal clear in my mind no one a that company has any estimating or forecasting skills at all.

I'm not sure what would make you think that? 

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/4974-so-lets-take-look-history-some-delivery-dates-predictions-bfl.html

Oh. Ok.

[Paladin69]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

I am no hypocrite at the very least.

I have always complained and pointed it out. Doesn't matter who it is, it is wrong. My story, nor my stance has changed. I continue to think the same.

True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

So where do you stand on BFL now?  I agree with you that AM was fleecing people.

[creativex]

It is crystal clear in my mind no one a that company has any estimating or forecasting skills at all.

I'm not sure what would make you think that? 

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/4974-so-lets-take-look-history-some-delivery-dates-predictions-bfl.html

Oh. Ok.

Bfl's image of incompetence has been carefully cultivated and serves as great cover for their massive theft.

[bcp19]

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

I am no hypocrite at the very least.

I have always complained and pointed it out. Doesn't matter who it is, it is wrong. My story, nor my stance has changed. I continue to think the same.

True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

So where do you stand on BFL now?  I agree with you that AM was fleecing people.

In regards to this, I think they are overpriced for me, but they have not reached the level of AM as yet since AM's had 0% chance of positive RoI starting day 1 of their USB's.  Before the cries start, consider this: no power costs.  My Jalapeno will use ~30 watts of power for 5GH.  252.8kw for 1 year.  $25.58 at .10/KW

Using http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/d9fe520f0d which I feel is a fair outlook for Jan, make Sept 2013 = Jan 2014 and you can see these is a chance for positive RoI using a 10% increase monthly.  If you are pessimistc enough to use 20% it still takes less than a year to break even, while at 25% takes over a year.  I personally don't see us at 60+PH by Jan 2015, unless the value of BTC hits new highs or someone creates $1/TH chips.

[millsdmb]

Sounds like BFL is going to raise the difficulty by orders of magnitude with the 65nm hardware they should've shipped to customers.

MADNESS!

[Puppet]

First, Cointerra is MUCH cheaper at about $3/GH/s. That's a factor of more than 3!

HashFast second batch is cheaper too at $8.75/GH/s and they are supposed to deliver in November!

To be fair, you cant just compare hardware cost with a hosted solution. Put that cointerra in a datacenter with electrcity/cooling/monitoring/redudant everything included for a year, and you end up paying a lot more than $3/GH/year too.

[Syke]

Using http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/d9fe520f0d which I feel is a fair outlook for Jan, make Sept 2013 = Jan 2014 and you can see these is a chance for positive RoI using a 10% increase monthly.

10%? Per month? What a joke.