Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin

[Roccker]

Kudos for your analysis!
I would be interested in a recap before every video for about 20sec -> just what you called (yesterday) and what then happened (did it come true or not)

[Lucano]

Kudos for your analysis!
I would be interested in a recap before every video for about 20sec -> just what you called (yesterday) and what then happened (did it come true or not)

Thanks !!
I will work on that one!!
cheers !!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price manage to reach new daily highs last noght and this is helping the bullish hypothesis to keep going.
The next situation for the hypothesis to more valid is that the price should reach the $774.47 and create new highs so in that way the lower high pattern in the daily chart will be history and that can bring more volume to the market and a new up trend will be in place towards $990.00.

The daily chart is showing new highs and it could keep the momentum towards $774.47 and then a lower high failure in the daily chart will send signals to the market makers that a new up trend it's on the way.

240 minutes chart is building a new support with a new consolidation that can bring a potential new higher low. this higher low in the event that it comes active can bring the send the price towards the SMA 200 which is located at $888.27.

The 60 minutes chart is showing that the price could use the SMA 200 to build support and keep the consolidation happening until the right time and then it will send the signal that the potential higher low in the 240 minutes chart is ready and that's when the volume will appear.

Here, the Pre Market.

http://youtu.be/PFEKwObL8sA

P.S: I want to wish you all happy holidays and thank you for all the feedback and the support. wishing you a great success in the new year.  BTCBTC

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last month the price manage to build a candle stick with long tales and a relatively small body that indicates the uncertainty towards how further the price could go after reaching new historical highs $1242.00.

Because the over extended trend in the last two months, it's possible that the price continues with the side ways trend for a while and that will could help the price in building new supports and new higher low's in daily and 240 minutes chart. This particular behavior can help the price to reach the historical highs in few weeks time.

The weekly chart is showing a higher low that it's active since $837.00 and it can keep going up towards a first point of reaction $925.00 and if the buyers power and the volume keeps the same momentum such pattern can keep the penetration towards $1068.00. If this hypothesis gets confirmed by the uptrend there is a possibility that such pattern will $1242.00.

The 3 day chart is showing an over extended trend by candles sticks only and it can keep it's bullish momentum towards $1068.00 and if that happens the over extended trend won't give entries in daily and the 240 minutes chart will be the new possibility.

And last but not least, the daily chart shows a similar condition as the 3 day chart. The daily chart will keep trying with the penetration towards $990.00 and that will show a possible over extended trend during the next couple of sessions.

Volume will have a big role in this hypothesis during the course of the month and if the volume keeps coming, the price could have a chance to reach the targets we mentioned sooner than later.

Here is the monthly analysis.

http://youtu.be/HNM2pLiIavA

[Interjekcion]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last month the price manage to build a candle stick with long tales and a relatively small body that indicates the uncertainty towards how further the price could go after reaching new historical highs $1242.00.

Because the over extended trend in the last two months, it's possible that the price continues with the side ways trend for a while and that will could help the price in building new supports and new higher low's in daily and 240 minutes chart. This particular behavior can help the price to reach the historical highs in few weeks time.

The weekly chart is showing a higher low that it's active since $837.00 and it can keep going up towards a first point of reaction $925.00 and if the buyers power and the volume keeps the same momentum such pattern can keep the penetration towards $1068.00. If this hypothesis gets confirmed by the uptrend there is a possibility that such pattern will $1242.00.

The 3 day chart is showing an over extended trend by candles sticks only and it can keep it's bullish momentum towards $1068.00 and if that happens the over extended trend won't give entries in daily and the 240 minutes chart will be the new possibility.

And last but not least, the daily chart shows a similar condition as the 3 day chart. The daily chart will keep trying with the penetration towards $990.00 and that will show a possible over extended trend during the next couple of sessions.

Volume will have a big role in this hypothesis during the course of the month and if the volume keeps coming, the price could have a chance to reach the targets we mentioned sooner than later.

Here is the monthly analysis.

http://youtu.be/HNM2pLiIavA

Are you discontinuing daily analysis? Just monthly from now on? 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Last month the price manage to build a candle stick with long tales and a relatively small body that indicates the uncertainty towards how further the price could go after reaching new historical highs $1242.00.

Because the over extended trend in the last two months, it's possible that the price continues with the side ways trend for a while and that will could help the price in building new supports and new higher low's in daily and 240 minutes chart. This particular behavior can help the price to reach the historical highs in few weeks time.

The weekly chart is showing a higher low that it's active since $837.00 and it can keep going up towards a first point of reaction $925.00 and if the buyers power and the volume keeps the same momentum such pattern can keep the penetration towards $1068.00. If this hypothesis gets confirmed by the uptrend there is a possibility that such pattern will $1242.00.

The 3 day chart is showing an over extended trend by candles sticks only and it can keep it's bullish momentum towards $1068.00 and if that happens the over extended trend won't give entries in daily and the 240 minutes chart will be the new possibility.

And last but not least, the daily chart shows a similar condition as the 3 day chart. The daily chart will keep trying with the penetration towards $990.00 and that will show a possible over extended trend during the next couple of sessions.

Volume will have a big role in this hypothesis during the course of the month and if the volume keeps coming, the price could have a chance to reach the targets we mentioned sooner than later.

Here is the monthly analysis.

http://youtu.be/HNM2pLiIavA

Are you discontinuing daily analysis? Just monthly from now on? 

Friday was just the monthly analysis.
Will be back on Monday with the weekly and daily analysis.
Cheers!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

A powerful higher low in the weekly chart is showing that the movement can continue until the price reaches the historical highs $1242.00. There is no obstacles for the price to reach the historical highs and it is possible that the up trend keeps bringing more volume that it helps the movement to reach major resistance.

The 3 day chart is over extended and the price is above the top tales of the minor resistance and with one more day to go before a new candle stick comes in there is a powerful volume pushing it towards new highs and the volume right now is the key for the candle stick to keep it's momentum for the next 24 hours.

The daily chart is also showing an extended trend that it seems not having any reaction from the sellers and it's possible that the next reaction from the sellers is located between $1,068.00 / $1,131.00.
However, the main target for this momentum can be the $1,242.00.

At this point we see a price with an impressive momentum and the recovery from the previous correction was good enough to bring more volume to reach the main target and build new memory in a market that at this point is getting the attention from the institutional money.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/aKoh3IuQfTA

[minimalB]

2013? : )

[Lucano]

2013? : )

Ups! ! 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesteday market just manage to bring uncertainty and at the same time the price build support areas and consolidations that it will help to build new potential patterns and it can continue with the up trend towards $1242.00.

The 12 hours chart is showing a correction that it wasn't as deep as we thought it will be and instead, the price keeps building new sopports so the new potential higher low and a bullish flag can continue with the up trend until the major resistance is reach.

240 minutes chart shows a previous correction with a red long range candle stick trying to send messages that becuase of the over extended trend the price should go down toward $943.00 but, the buyers are pushing the price one more time and they are keeping the price consolidating and potentially a new higher low could be on it's away for this particular time frame.

60 minutes chart keeps the same situation as the major time frames and a sideways trend is possible now with traders using small time frames such as 15/5 minutes respectively and trades that can bring 1:1 / 2:1 rewards.

Corrections can happen if the price manage to penetrate the $995.00 area and the down trend momentum reaches $943.00, thats when a new strategy should come in place because the price can visit $918.00 as part of it's behavior and the intentions from the sellers.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/Fbn9Vxcr2wk

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The powerful sell off that we experience yesterday is showing many few scenarios for the price and some of them look more positive than others.
All this new scenarios can either take the price towards $1040.00 and that will help the major time frames to build new higher lows (daily and 4 hour charts) or it can build a new lower high so the price can go down towards $771.00.

The daily chart is showing a long range candle stick from yesterday and it show at the same time that this particular sell off manage to penetrate one previous higher low in the 240 minutes chart which is why the buyer right now are responding with a powerful push that can bring a new up trend and the buyer will try to cancel the previous sell off with a powerful push toward $1040.00.

240 minutes shows how over extended the previous sell off was and after the penetration of the higher low around the $913.00 area the next reaction from the buyer was good enough to deny lower trend pivots (Lower high) in other small time frames such as 60 minutes chart. This reaction from the buyers can keep the momentum and the price can be push once again towards $1040.00 and that will a more solid confirmation to the daily chart that a possible new higher low is on it's way in the daily chart to push the price once again to the major resistance area.

To have a better picture about what's happening right now just look at the 60 minutes chart and see the powerful message that the buyer send to the sellers. The movement bounce back up from the SMA 200 and it deny second Lower High which can help the buyers to build a first higher low and if that happen the pattern can take the lead in the entire technical analysis today and the price once again can try to reach $1040.00 if not $998.00.

The $1040.00 area is the main target for the main hypothesis today and if that happen a new consolidation could be in front of us, so the price can build enough support to help 240 minutes chart to deny the previous sell off and that pattern can help the daily chart to build a future higher low to keep the momentum and try once again to reach the major resistance.

Here the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/MsPsxNMQi38

[dnaleor]

you should also take in consideration that the downtrend was started and lead by bitstamp:
We are on the key moment for the currency to decide whatwill happen:



(my bet is on downtrend)

[Lucano]

you should also take in consideration that the downtrend was started and lead by bitstamp:
We are on the key moment for the currency to decide whatwill happen:

(my bet is on downtrend)

That it's why we have markets and we trading. Some of us bet on downtrends others bet on uptrends.
you hypothesis is valid but, take into consideration that one time frame can make you bias against major multiple time frames.
The analysis of multiple time frames helps to see the big picture with more perspective.
It's just my opinon and they way I work.
  BTCBTC

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The 3 day chart still showing a potential higher low in progress with a bottom tale that is showing buyers are in palce loading their accounts and a candle stick body that if it keeps the shape inside the previous candle there is a chance that the price gets trapped and that could be a positive sign for the pattern to bring new momentum and a potential new rally with more power and more volume towards minor and major resistance.

The patterns we see right now indicates that the currency is building new patterns to take the price towards $1.000.00 and eventually the major resitance $1242.00.

The 3 days chart is showing a long bottom tale that shows the buyer with intentions to build supports in small time frames. Trying to trapped the price in the body of the previous candle stick (between $888.00 / $1015.00). this is important if the price continues with such behavior because it will help the consolidation and eventually it will help the higher low in the daily chart.

The daily chart shows a higher low in formation that it will take the price once again towards $1.000.00 and with enough volume it can visit the major resistance. $967.00 is the buying area that can trigger the higher low and push the price to higher levels.

240 minutes is showing a lower high failure after an over extended down trend. it can be trigger by the sellers and the price can visit $859.00 again and build a new double tale at the bottom of the previous support. That depends on how the buyers will react during the next 8 hours against the sellers intentions and if the prie builds a new higher low instead of going towards $859.00 we might see the buyer pushing the price to their first targert of the day which is over $1.000.00 area.

60 minutes chart is riding the SMA 200 and keeps building a strong support. that support can help the buyers to take control of the price and eventually push the price to out of the consolidation and build a new higher low could be the ideal case scenario for the market and the buyers.

A downtrend still possible and in order for that to happend, we need to see the price visiting the $859.00 area and wait for new lower high to confirm the trend.

Here the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/-ihtD5R4onQ

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price still sending positive message and it's keeping the bullish hypothesis alive and a potential higher low in the daily chart still on it's way. Before that happen the price needs to penetrate $964.70 to bring a new set of higher low's in the small time frames.
The major time frames are showing similarities in building patterns and that will help the bullish hypothesis to stay with us until the higher low in the daily chart gets active and pushy the price towards $1068.00 and over.

The 3 day chart shows a previous red candle stick with a bottom tale that shows some of the buyers trapped into the consolidation between $1047 / $859.00. Technically is not a bad thing is take into consideration the fact that the price is building a strong consolidation and potentially a strong support to bring the price close to a new pattern that it can take the price to minor resistance and eventually to the major one.

The daily chart is in line with the 12 hours chart and is sending messages that it is possible that the bullish hypothesis still have possibilities at this time of the race and the consolidation in this time frame can help the daily chart to activate the higher low to push the price towards higher areas.

12 hours chart is a mirror of what's going on in the daily chart and the synchrony between both time frames only can create a domino effect in the other time frames and it will help the price to reach it's first targets.

240 minutes chart show a price trying to deny the a previous lower high with a new higher low. For this to happen, the price need to reach $943.00 and over to send a more powerfull message to the market makers and create the right conditions to bring more volume to the market.

We can have the 60 minutes chart joining the alignment with the major time frames and with a new higher low push the price toward $964.70 we can end the day with all the time fram in full coordination and that will be a powerful message that can bring a significant result at the end.

The bearish hypothesis still active and that to happen we need to see the price visiting $906.00 as a first target and then a penetration of the price towards $866.00  can lead the move to set new higher low's that can take the price below $822.00.

The last bearish hypothesis is fighting against a big amount of orders set in those areas to push the price once again to the consolidation areas and it will only delay the intentions for the buyer to bring the price to high levels.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/OWhIdpeL28o

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

This new week is bringing new of information from the previous week and regardless of the positive messages towards a potential new really on it's way there is a possibility that such rally will take more time than usual.

Last week the price reach new highs ($1093.68) compare to the previous ones and at the same time the price went down $859.00 creating a new support that it's bringin a new set of trades in between supports and resistance.
The information in the weekly chart is showing three possible scenarios for the price during the week and potentially the rest of the month and having the price trapped in between supports and resistance I won't be surprise if we have a powerful consolidation in construction as we speak just to bring more buyers to the areas where the price can create a reaction towards minor resistance such as $1093.08 and eventually a visit to the historical highs will happen with more buyers in control of the price.

The 3 day chart keeps the price between supports and resistance and this sideways trend can continue for a while because of the previous over extended rally that last 15 consecutive days without interruptions. This hypothesis can bring significant opportunities  in small time frames such as 60/15 minutes and the trades can be consider as counter-trends with one or two targets tops just to minimize the risk in case the volatility decided to show up.

The daily chart is showing the same behavior as the 3 day chart and it only confirms what the major time frame (3 day chart) is trying to build a powerful new pattern (higher low / bullish flag). If the price continues building a strong support for the next three to six days there is a chance that the two charts (daily / 3 day chart) get synchronize to bring more power to the bullish hypothesis and increase the possibilities for the price to reach $1242.00 and over.

Por su parte el marco diario  mantiene el mismo comportamiento del marco de 3 dias y confirma las intenciones del precio las cuales a mi parecer serian, construir soportes y consolidar el precio para un eventual rebote que alinea los marcos semanal y tres dias. si esta hipotesis se confirma, estariamos frente a una gran consolidacion que tomaria varios dias y mantendria el precio en un movimiento entre rangos.

The sideways trend is negotiable in many forms but I rather be outside the market waiting for the right pattern based on my trading plan to go in than getting trapped in a trade that it will only give me uncertainty and it will take away my objective mind set.

The conditions for a potential new rally are in progress and if the market and the hypothesis keeps the same rhythm, there is a chance for the bullish patterns to take the price to new levels and increase the opportunities for us to take the trades when the time is right and not when the emotions are in the middle.

Here, the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/G0xdjdv-AHU

[outofservice]

Lucano,

Thank you for this thread. The youtube blog is great!

I look forward to your analysis.

[Lucano]

Lucano,
Thank you for this thread. The youtube blog is great!
I look forward to your analysis.

Thank you for watching !! 

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

The 3 day chart is showing importante messages in regards a possible new pattern that it will help the buyers to take control of the price one more time.

The daily chart is showing a correction that it can take price towards $859.00. But, all this it will only help one time frame and that's the 3 day chart to build a new higher low and eventually a new visit to the historical highs will occur.

240 minutes chart is showing a sideways trend that it can be good for traders that have trading plans using 15/5 minutes chart respectively. the 240 minutes chart is building a new lower high thatit can take the price toward the SMA 200 $826.00 and the buyers will try to bring the price back up from that main area.

The 60 minutes chart is too erratic right now is the readings are not the best.
However, we have the price with enough space to go $885.00 and after that the price can try to build a new pivot/lower high and that's when we will see the buyers trying to deny that potential pivot/lower high with a new powerful up trend towards $970.00 and this situation can just keep the price within the sideways trend that we are experiencing right now.

The price still strong and building new memory (supports more than resistance) and if the price keeps doing what its doing it that will be ideal for the buyers and the three day chart.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/Vb4dRxx9it8

[outofservice]

Lucano,

There seems to be resistance to go below 780/790 on BTC-E.

What's your opinion on how low this might drop if that line of resistance is broken?