Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Seems like $300 could be the next target for the price to reach.
However, taking into consideration that market is over extended and the SMA's 10, 20, 200 are very far from the price at this point some trading plans are finished and another ones haven't even start yet.

Here, the pre market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZC_5Sf4EtI&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The impressive volume that BTCCHINA is moving towards Bitcoin price is the one who's generating new historical highs and the momentum has not finished yet.
We see over extended trends in majhor time frames but the 60/15 minutes charts still using the SMA's 10/20 as support, specially the SMA 10 which is the one showing us how much control the buyer are having at the moment.

Here, the analysis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcGWCL9blwQ&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Lucano]

You seem to of missed this one sucks because for some reason I traded off what you were saying this time instead of my plan. Amateur mistake cost big.

I'm glad to hear that you are using the analysis to generate good trades and profits.
Like any other trader, we can fuck things up some times.
As long as I'm over 60% positive at the end of the year that means I'm doing ok.

"Money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver."

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

After the impressive rally that we all experience for the last five weeks we start seeing pull backs and the major time frames are showing that a pause is need it build more memory in the market for the sake of our young currency.

However, the divergence between price and SMA's is huge and we can expect a pull back towards $230.00.

The reason why I'm saying this is because what I see between the daily, 3 day and weekly chart makes me thing that this hypothesis is one to take into consideration.

The 60 minutes chart will play an important role during this week and the SMA 200 in this time frame will be for the price and sellers to push the price down and to generate new lower highs.

Here the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/TKE7Fm3D_jQ

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Buyers in full control of the price and showing signs of pull back or pauses at this point.
We keep the hypothesis of pull back based on the data received from the major time frames.
The question is when is this pull back going to happen?

The pull back hypothesis for the weekly analysis still valid for us and there is nothing in our trading plan that it's telling us some thing else.

For the traders that don't have a trading plan and do what we call Kamikaze trading, we wish you all the best.

For the no so experience traders with a trading plan, if you reach your target and the price still goes up, dont feel bad remember that the term "What if" does not exist and it never will.
there is market every day so feel happy and take the some time off and do something productive until the signs for new trades based on your plan come back.

And the for the professional is not much I can tell, they know what;s going on becuase they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come an eat you alive with notice. !!

60 minutes chart should give us the signs of higher low failures and then, only then will see how deep the pull back can go.

A good friend of mine and an excellent coach told me once "If you want to survive in this industry stick to your plan and don't fuck around"

Here, the pre market anlysis.

http://youtu.be/3dfhNHl0StY

[Tzupy]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

[Miz4r]

I find your analysis a bit too biased. Yeah we'll revisit the SMA's at some point but if you look at the price action back in February-April this year you can see that it might take a while to do so. Would you have advised everyone to stay out and wait for a correction back to the SMA's when the price was at $80 back then? Eventually it did happen ofcourse but that was only several weeks later after another 300% increase. Just a little something to take into consideration.

[Lucano]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

Your welcome.
The market idea of buy low and sell high between exchanges will always generate volatility specially when people buys big amounts and dumped them in high price exchanges !!
 

[Lucano]

I find your analysis a bit too biased. Yeah we'll revisit the SMA's at some point but if you look at the price action back in February-April this year you can see that it might take a while to do so. Would you have advised everyone to stay out and wait for a correction back to the SMA's when the price was at $80 back then? Eventually it did happen ofcourse but that was only several weeks later after another 300% increase. Just a little something to take into consideration.

The analysis is subject to debate and you are absolutely right about me been biased. I'm biased based on my trading plan which is the one who gives me the results so I can go and do what I do best.
Every one is entitle to use the analysis in any possible way.
I am taking your opinion on board 100%. Thank you for that.
I'm expecting no one to take my analysis as a main source but if your trading plan is matching my analysis that makes us two.

[Its About Sharing]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

BTC Days Destroyed would show the movement of coins moving to the exchanges. https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
As you can see, there is nothing right now going on. The huge bump a few weeks ago was the FBI's movement of the confiscated coins. (Note the April crash)
So, we don't appear to be in any sudden danger, though there are lots of coins on exchanges I would think (Gox has a lot). Perhaps big sellers won't tip us off - will flip things quickly.
Very important statistic to keep an eye on though Tzupy.



Nice job as usual Lucano. It sure does seem like we are do for a correction. But many have been saying that since 200. But still a fair point and we might see 250 again, or even lower. Tough one to call. BTW - Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak. Now, MSFT is an exceptional company (profit wise) and BTC is also something revolutionary, disruptive, etc. and at a time of financial instability and further talks from the ECB of 10% EU haircuts. All I'm saying is, anything is possible. And I get the feeling, BTC might be an all or nothing thing. And it might move quicker than one can imagine (up or down). GREAT news and we could be at $1000 in a day (e.g. - Ebay accepting it, or the like) or it might go to $20 (E.g. - America and the EU make it illegal for spending, etc.) I say it is the former. Welcome our Anti-fragile disruptive black swan. 

[notthematrix]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

BTC Days Destroyed would show the movement of coins moving to the exchanges. https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
As you can see, there is nothing right now going on. The huge bump a few weeks ago was the FBI's movement of the confiscated coins. (Note the April crash)
So, we don't appear to be in any sudden danger, though there are lots of coins on exchanges I would think (Gox has a lot). Perhaps big sellers won't tip us off - will flip things quickly.
Very important statistic to keep an eye on though Tzupy.



Nice job as usual Lucano. It sure does seem like we are do for a correction. But many have been saying that since 200. But still a fair point and we might see 250 again, or even lower. Tough one to call. BTW - Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak. Now, MSFT is an exceptional company (profit wise) and BTC is also something revolutionary, disruptive, etc. and at a time of financial instability and further talks from the ECB of 10% EU haircuts. All I'm saying is, anything is possible. And I get the feeling, BTC might be an all or nothing thing. And it might move quicker than one can imagine (up or down). GREAT news and we could be at $1000 in a day (e.g. - Ebay accepting it, or the like) or it might go to $20 (E.g. - America and the EU make it illegal for spending, etc.) I say it is the former. Welcome our Anti-fragile disruptive black swan. 

the fact you can see and anticipate on this . was never possible before bitcoin
panic selling is not needed , because anybody understanding bitcoin can examine this information
if the BRIC country's like it europe and US can prohibit it but it will not be very effective.
 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price still penetrating the major resistance and it seems like there is not options for the sellers at this point.
$400.00 seems to be the main target for this particular momentum.

The daily chart shows a higher low trying to reach new highs after the $395.00 mark from previous sessions.
240 minutes chart is showing a new higher low that is still penetrating the top tales of the major resistance and it will intent to create new highs and after will go towards the $400.00 which will generate a new pattern. A possible double top tale.
The 60 minutes chart is showing that the price is relying on the SMA10 to support it's intention toward the $400.00.
15 minutes chart will be ideal to operate like the way some traders operate counter trends (Medium size trades towards one or two targets tops) but at this point that particular time frame is too erratic and hard to read.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h26xUITLYQo&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Its About Sharing]

I wonder, can we trade an entity like BTC, like a stock? Maybe we "could" till a few months ago but going forward (until more data is collected) can't...   The "known" is now "unkown".

What I mean is, BTC is something essentially never before seen. It is a: Stock (in "owning" a piece of the network, in a sense), protocol, asset, payments system, commodity, etc. Maybe it will run to 1000 and break all the rules because it isn't like anything before it. And we are seeing that now.

And, we now have what appears to be the silent approval of two governments in China and Russia who don't exactly value the USD as the world currency.

I don't think we can put the BTC in a box as a "stock" is all, at least not yet.

Just a thought...

Learning your candle skills as usual Lucano...

[Ivanhoe]

I have thought about this matter as well. I think there are some things that they have in common. But the thing with Bitcoin is, that the market is so thin that it doesn't take much money to change a trend and market sentiment( and fuck up a pattern). That makes it far more risky to trade in my opinion, if you can be successful in Bitcoin you can also be in stocks.  

Anyway keep up the good work Lucano ( and It's about sharing as well, your postings are also valuable to me )

[Lucano]

Interesting analysis, thank you! Especially this part:
'they are like sharks and they can smell your fear miles away and when the time is right they will come and eat you alive'

I have seen some data that showed tens of thousands of coins being transferred to the exchanges.
As for when and at what rate they will be dumped, that's the big question.
I believe the markets are now at the peak of wave B, and about to enter the capitulation phase (wave C).

BTC Days Destroyed would show the movement of coins moving to the exchanges. https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-week
As you can see, there is nothing right now going on. The huge bump a few weeks ago was the FBI's movement of the confiscated coins. (Note the April crash)
So, we don't appear to be in any sudden danger, though there are lots of coins on exchanges I would think (Gox has a lot). Perhaps big sellers won't tip us off - will flip things quickly.
Very important statistic to keep an eye on though Tzupy.



Nice job as usual Lucano. It sure does seem like we are do for a correction. But many have been saying that since 200. But still a fair point and we might see 250 again, or even lower. Tough one to call. BTW - Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak. Now, MSFT is an exceptional company (profit wise) and BTC is also something revolutionary, disruptive, etc. and at a time of financial instability and further talks from the ECB of 10% EU haircuts. All I'm saying is, anything is possible. And I get the feeling, BTC might be an all or nothing thing. And it might move quicker than one can imagine (up or down). GREAT news and we could be at $1000 in a day (e.g. - Ebay accepting it, or the like) or it might go to $20 (E.g. - America and the EU make it illegal for spending, etc.) I say it is the former. Welcome our Anti-fragile disruptive black swan. 

As usual, is always brilliant reading your comments and the knowledge your sharing with us is privilege information. Thank you.
P.S: Sorry for the late reply, sorting out few bits and pieces here !!

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price had a small pause during the morning but it only help the small time frames to generate new higher lows and potentially new up trends towards new historical highs.

The daily charts is showing a previous long range candle stick that it could be the candle that finalized the up trend.

However, watching the 240 minutes chart it seems to me that the currency is trying to consolidate in order to create a new potential higher low with and trade to take at $439.80.
Having said that, the price still respecting the SMA 10 and it's using it again as it's main support towards new highs.

The 60 minutes chart is the one who has to show a bit more energy if we want the higher low to work (the 240 minutes chart).
If the price manage to penetrate the previous pull back and put the price back up in the resistance area it will activate the orders set at $439.80 and then will have a new up trend in place towards once again historical new highs.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2P79YrGaUA&feature=share&list=UU984H0DP00LvDOvzSs2LbSw

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price keeps building a strong consolidation as we speak.
The point of entry yesterday did not manage to generate a chain reaction and some of the traders are inside waiting for every body else to follow.
Perhaps, the over extended trend is creating uncertainty now and the major time frames are ready for correction. Perhaps no.

Here the pre market analysis

http://youtu.be/35ywKNtAhZ0

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

We are having more than 6 weeks rally and the price does not want to have a pause for a possible correction, instead it keeps generating new historical highs almost every hour. Impressive!

The weekly chart shows the SMA 10 with over $300.00 margin difference and we all know that in the event of a deep sell off we will hate our self's if we get trapped and with negative numbers.

The greed and positive emotion that the currency is giving to all of us at this point it's proportional to a potential deep correction due the fact that our major time frames looks amazingly vertical and there is not point of reference to say that the price will stop today, tomorrow or in a month.

However, the currency have a major challenge today with Uncle Sam and it's biggest enemy, The Federal Reserve which is hiding behind all the federal agencies that are part of this historical hearing that will happen in few hours.

The meeting with the U.S Government will probably create a high volatility today which is something that it has never happen before because Bitcoin it's been very neutral against economy news and central banks minutes etc.

Seems like everything is in place for the price to have a pause and bring the correction.

• Historical highs
• Over extended trend

• Government hearing (Fundamental Fact never explore before)
• High Levels of speculation = high volatility

Now, let's look at the SMA 200 in the daily chart and the margin difference between the SMA and the actual price, we are talking about $430.00 difference. Insane right?. well the chart it's saying it.

There is not aliens in the market, the market was created by humans and it's full of human feelings.
We are living a honey moon with Bitcoin right now but the bumpy road is right in front of us with the banks and their lobby against bitcoin, the governments trying to regulate and asphyxiate the bitcoin businesses and the institutional money trying to take advantage of the new rules against bitcoin so they can control it and make it disappear for the common citizens of the world.

All this can be reflected in the behavior of the market and it's four stages.

Greed is already here and we see how much we want the price per bitcoin to go to $1k and more but the uncertainty, panic and indifference will come along and that's when we take advantage of more opportunities to go in the market hit our targets and make our profits.

Here, the weekly analysis.

http://youtu.be/dH0NQidJ2LU

[Its About Sharing]

Great commentary once again Lucano. Very much appreciated - the professionalism and "openness" of your calls.

Regarding the Senate hearing today, one thing we should be aware of, is that this is a VERY delicate situation. If the US Governments hints at a heavy hand with BTC they are going to push innovation overseas. And, they will probably push the many countries (e.g. China, Russia, South America, etc.) into the further adoption of BTC as a sort of economic proxy war.

Imagine, there are hard words today and the price of BTC continues to go up. Would that be their Worst short term NIGHTMARE? A big smack in the face, the middle finger?
To put this in perspective, somewhat anyway, look at Bit Torrent. They attacked it and clearly lost. Now they don't mention it much. Do they want to go down the same road or try to subvert BTC with regulations? I think the latter as they learned their lesson, but these are pretty much corrupt low intelligent criminals in charge, so I wouldn't be shocked at anything.
I can't stress this enough, if the U.S. goes about this all wrong, it will blow up in their face and the world, the people, etc. are not exactly behind the U.S. government.

With relation to the 200 day ma/ema, etc. I don't know what to think. It certainly appears we are in an S-Curve (the uptrend part). Twitter, Facebook, MSFT, etc. experienced this but in large part privately, the stocks were not publicly available to most of us. I think it is safe to say, as I did a few posts up, that BTC is much more complicated then a stock. We can for sure see us zoom to 1000. I guess I'm saying, I just wonder if we can apply BTC in the same way as a stock, especially in light of the global economic situation. Anyway, if we do crash down, one should probably have orders in place before the crash, as the exchanges will lag big time.

By the way, if you have not seen this guys videos, I STRONGLY recommend them.
Here is one on the S-Curve (which pertains here): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI
And here is one on the Nightmare of regulating BTC (my favorite): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR4e8zwnR6w

So, we might see a big drop today, or we might see $1000. Neither would shock me.

Keep on keeping on with the videos, very much appreciated and I've tried to share them often,
Its about sharing

[Lucano]

Hi Bitcoiners,

High volatility last night.
Price was pushed by the sellers to go below $600.00 and pontentialy generate a powerful sell off.
Hard thing to do but possible if the new set of candles in weekly and daily do not react in a positive way towards this momentum of weakness.

http://youtu.be/8ww44KBQqFQ