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Author Topic: Long, slow slide  (Read 9325 times)
Nagle
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July 18, 2011, 03:53:54 PM
 #1


The last three weeks on Tradehill

Here's the last three weeks on Tradehill. Three weeks, because that gets us past the churn from Mt. Gox's problems, and Tradehill, because there's less noise.  On a daily basis, the prices are about the same.

There are no rallies. There are no crashes.  There is just a slow, steady slide.

This is normal post-bubble market behavior. Nothing to be surprised at here.
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July 18, 2011, 03:55:02 PM
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How far/low do you think it'll go?

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July 18, 2011, 04:02:54 PM
 #3

This is just depressing.  Sad

Getting closer to turning off my mining rigs.  $7/BTC and they're going off, at the current difficulty level.
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July 18, 2011, 04:13:08 PM
 #4

Can't see it going to $7 but I havn't been watching for long.

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July 18, 2011, 04:15:19 PM
 #5



kinda looks like the bitcoin chart hehe.  I was one of those "New Paradigm" people at the top.  Still am but that was just a little premature.
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July 18, 2011, 04:18:32 PM
 #6

Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?
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July 18, 2011, 04:24:41 PM
 #7

Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?

 Undecided

I dont think its gonna go down to 7.  I think there are way to many eyes on bitcoin.  I dont like to speculate but hey its fun.  Plus I have some rigs too so I'm kinda in your boat.
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July 18, 2011, 05:04:36 PM
 #8

How far/low do you think it'll go?

I'm guessing it hits the recent intraday low of just above $11 before the bleeding stops.  Where it goes from there depends on the news coverage.

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Jaime Frontero
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July 18, 2011, 05:17:48 PM
 #9

This is just depressing.  Sad

Getting closer to turning off my mining rigs.  $7/BTC and they're going off, at the current difficulty level.

the three stages of mining:

1.)  git 'er dun:  put every dime you've got into hardware.  source locally so you can get it quick - the only goal is to put out the Mh/sec as soon as possible.  get everything stable and cool so you can stop screwing with it every ten minutes.  pay off the hardware.

2.)  software efficiency:  start squeezing every Mh/s you can, out of what you've got.  optimize drivers, try out all the available mining software, check out different pools, etc.

now me, i just ended stage two, and i'm starting in on...

3.)  hardware efficiency:  focused mainly on electrical power usage.  hopefully, during stage one you were thinking ahead, and bought hardware that would still be usable in this stage.  for example, cases with 8 or 9 slots, instead of the standard seven...

in stage one i was putting up miners with two PCIe slots on the motherboard - because it was fast and cheap.  now i'm looking at four and five PCIe slot motherboards, so i can consolidate my GPUs and PSUs - and i don't have to pay the power-penalty of running a whole computer for every two GPUs.  i'll be getting rid of those cheap hard drives, in favor of running the OS off of thumbdrives.

i should be able to pay off my only cash output - upgrading the motherboards and some PCIe extenders - by using all my leftover parts to build a couple of computers that i can sell to people i know who need them.

right now, with my hardware paid off, i need a BTC exchange rate of about $4.00 to break even.  i figure i can get that down to somewhere around $2.50-3.00 without too much trouble.  if that happens, maybe i'll need to think about turning off most of my miners - although i'll always keep one on; running solo with the client (who knows?  i could get lucky...) just to support the network.
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July 18, 2011, 05:25:03 PM
 #10

This is just depressing.  Sad

Getting closer to turning off my mining rigs.  $7/BTC and they're going off, at the current difficulty level.

the three stages of mining:

1.)  git 'er dun:  put every dime you've got into hardware.  source locally so you can get it quick - the only goal is to put out the Mh/sec as soon as possible.  get everything stable and cool so you can stop screwing with it every ten minutes.  pay off the hardware.

2.)  software efficiency:  start squeezing every Mh/s you can, out of what you've got.  optimize drivers, try out all the available mining software, check out different pools, etc.

now me, i just ended stage two, and i'm starting in on...

3.)  hardware efficiency:  focused mainly on electrical power usage.  hopefully, during stage one you were thinking ahead, and bought hardware that would still be usable in this stage.  for example, cases with 8 or 9 slots, instead of the standard seven...

in stage one i was putting up miners with two PCIe slots on the motherboard - because it was fast and cheap.  now i'm looking at four and five PCIe slot motherboards, so i can consolidate my GPUs and PSUs - and i don't have to pay the power-penalty of running a whole computer for every two GPUs.  i'll be getting rid of those cheap hard drives, in favor of running the OS off of thumbdrives.

i should be able to pay off my only cash output - upgrading the motherboards and some PCIe extenders - by using all my leftover parts to build a couple of computers that i can sell to people i know who need them.

right now, with my hardware paid off, i need a BTC exchange rate of about $4.00 to break even.  i figure i can get that down to somewhere around $2.50-3.00 without too much trouble.  if that happens, maybe i'll need to think about turning off most of my miners - although i'll always keep one on; running solo with the client (who knows?  i could get lucky...) just to support the network.
Haha, good call.  The main reason my current setup is so inefficient is the high A/C costs... basically doubles my electrical output.  And it's less than $7, but I think $7 would be close enough that I'd probably stop mining at that point.
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July 18, 2011, 05:31:50 PM
 #11

WELL DONE Nagle, your data only shows the price for less than one month, or roughly, three weeks  Undecided
Not enough informations to go on...  Huh

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July 18, 2011, 05:35:09 PM
 #12


Haha, good call.  The main reason my current setup is so inefficient is the high A/C costs... basically doubles my electrical output.  And it's less than $7, but I think $7 would be close enough that I'd probably stop mining at that point.

yeah - that A/C is a bitch.  i'm right in the middle of the current midwest heat-bubble - so i'm kinda lucky:  nothing over 100 F like on the edges of the bubble.  looking at two-three weeks of 90+ though...

i forgot to mention that one of my hardware efficiency goals is to get a 4" duct fan, build a rack-shroud (hmmm... a brassiere?) out of foam, and try to exhaust most of my waste heat out of a window.  we'll see how that goes...
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July 18, 2011, 05:40:05 PM
 #13

Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?

 Undecided

I dont think its gonna go down to 7.  I think there are way to many eyes on bitcoin.  I dont like to speculate but hey its fun.  Plus I have some rigs too so I'm kinda in your boat.

There are still a lot of people with a lot of coins that were acquired when the price was well under a dollar.  If things continue, I'm sure many of them will be happy to cash out at even $5 (potentially profiting thousands of dollars in from a small initial investment in less than a year).  I think everybody should be prepared for things to get real ugly.  Honestly, I'm not even confident this project will survive a year as anything more than a tiny hobby with a market cap of a few million.  It looks to me like this ship is sinking, and I have a hard time imagining any well-funded investors foolish enough to jump on board at this point.
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July 18, 2011, 05:48:38 PM
 #14

Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?

 Undecided

I dont think its gonna go down to 7.  I think there are way to many eyes on bitcoin.  I dont like to speculate but hey its fun.  Plus I have some rigs too so I'm kinda in your boat.

There are still a lot of people with a lot of coins that were acquired when the price was well under a dollar.  If things continue, I'm sure many of them will be happy to cash out at even $5 (potentially profiting thousands of dollars in from a small initial investment in less than a year).  I think everybody should be prepared for things to get real ugly.  Honestly, I'm not even confident this project will survive a year as anything more than a tiny hobby with a market cap of a few million.  It looks to me like this ship is sinking, and I have a hard time imagining any well-funded investors foolish enough to jump on board at this point.

Well thankfully alot of people do believe in this project and want it to succeed.  Well funded investors are investing into other parts of bitcoin too.  Its not all about pumping the money into buying them so the price goes up.  I think you're missing the point of bitcoin.
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July 18, 2011, 05:51:27 PM
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Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?

 Undecided

I dont think its gonna go down to 7.  I think there are way to many eyes on bitcoin.  I dont like to speculate but hey its fun.  Plus I have some rigs too so I'm kinda in your boat.

There are still a lot of people with a lot of coins that were acquired when the price was well under a dollar.  If things continue, I'm sure many of them will be happy to cash out at even $5 (potentially profiting thousands of dollars in from a small initial investment in less than a year).  I think everybody should be prepared for things to get real ugly.  Honestly, I'm not even confident this project will survive a year as anything more than a tiny hobby with a market cap of a few million.  It looks to me like this ship is sinking, and I have a hard time imagining any well-funded investors foolish enough to jump on board at this point.

Well thankfully alot of people do believe in this project and want it to succeed.  Well funded investors are investing into other parts of bitcoin too.  Its not all about pumping the money into buying them so the price goes up.  I think you're missing the point of bitcoin.
This is the only reason that I don't believe bitcoin will ever cease to exist.  There are many highly motivated people who will continue to use it no matter what the rest of the world thinks.
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July 18, 2011, 05:51:36 PM
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Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?

 Undecided

I dont think its gonna go down to 7.  I think there are way to many eyes on bitcoin.  I dont like to speculate but hey its fun.  Plus I have some rigs too so I'm kinda in your boat.

There are still a lot of people with a lot of coins that were acquired when the price was well under a dollar.  If things continue, I'm sure many of them will be happy to cash out at even $5 (potentially profiting thousands of dollars in from a small initial investment in less than a year).  I think everybody should be prepared for things to get real ugly.  Honestly, I'm not even confident this project will survive a year as anything more than a tiny hobby with a market cap of a few million.  It looks to me like this ship is sinking, and I have a hard time imagining any well-funded investors foolish enough to jump on board at this point.

Well thankfully alot of people do believe in this project and want it to succeed.  Well funded investors are investing into other parts of bitcoin too.  Its not all about pumping the money into buying them so the price goes up.  I think you're missing the point of bitcoin.

I think the most not-direct-investment money (setting aside mining) is being spent on creating exchanges, and, of course, you can come out ahead in that bitcoin related business almost regardless of what the price does.
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July 18, 2011, 05:55:43 PM
 #17



There are still a lot of people with a lot of coins that were acquired when the price was well under a dollar.  If things continue, I'm sure many of them will be happy to cash out at even $5 (potentially profiting thousands of dollars in from a small initial investment in less than a year).  I think everybody should be prepared for things to get real ugly.  Honestly, I'm not even confident this project will survive a year as anything more than a tiny hobby with a market cap of a few million.  It looks to me like this ship is sinking, and I have a hard time imagining any well-funded investors foolish enough to jump on board at this point.

Another good example of the sort of negative sentiment predictions that may eventually indicate the full deflation of the bitcoin valuation bubble.
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July 18, 2011, 06:06:52 PM
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There are still a lot of people with a lot of coins that were acquired when the price was well under a dollar.  If things continue, I'm sure many of them will be happy to cash out at even $5 (potentially profiting thousands of dollars in from a small initial investment in less than a year).  I think everybody should be prepared for things to get real ugly.  Honestly, I'm not even confident this project will survive a year as anything more than a tiny hobby with a market cap of a few million.  It looks to me like this ship is sinking, and I have a hard time imagining any well-funded investors foolish enough to jump on board at this point.

Another good example of the sort of negative sentiment predictions that may eventually indicate the full deflation of the bitcoin valuation bubble.

So what, Bitcoin is not meant to be a get rich quick scheme.  If getting these people out the way leads bitcoin to its true value so be it.  Although most of these "negative predictions" are just people hoping to buy at a lower price.
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July 19, 2011, 01:25:27 AM
 #19

I think the most not-direct-investment money (setting aside mining) is being spent on creating exchanges, and, of course, you can come out ahead in that bitcoin related business almost regardless of what the price does.

Actually most "investment" in bitcoin is occurring in the creation of new businesses around it. But, you don't see them until they appear, months after they started production. The people who really believe in Bitcoin are building businesses, not speculating on the currency (though that's fun too =)
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July 19, 2011, 01:40:53 AM
 #20

My qualifier for bitcoin conforming to 'bubble' status is price declining to the 5 dollar level by the end of August. I doubt this will happen, however. Being above that level by the end of August would confirm the bubble assumption is incorrect.

Having just witnessed the two-dollar plus rally from 12.50 just now, I'm not subscribing to the 'slow death' theory either.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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