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Author Topic: Long, slow slide  (Read 9335 times)
Cluster2k
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July 19, 2011, 03:19:45 AM
 #21

Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?

The long term average value of bitcoins is under a dollar, but even the most pessimistic speculator is unlikely to believe that's achievable unless there is a severe disruption to how bitcoin works (hack, economy collapse, government intervention, etc).

Currently there is a slow and steady trend downwards.  I'm using any upward spikes to sell bitcoins.  Did quite well today at $14.60, just shy of the temporary $14.70 peak.  I'll buy in again should the value drop to $12.50.

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Edward50
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July 19, 2011, 02:52:59 PM
 #22

Look like that CNN video caused the price to spike up. I was wondering why it was in the $12's to bounce back up so rapidly.

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stic.man
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July 19, 2011, 03:10:51 PM
 #23

it probably had nothing to do with the CNN video and had everything to do with dwolla clearing and gox reinstating euro transfers
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July 19, 2011, 03:13:58 PM
 #24

it probably had nothing to do with the CNN video and had everything to do with dwolla clearing and gox reinstating euro transfers

Except the Euro transfers weren't reinstated... they're supposed to come up with news on Thursday and they will be reinstated next Tuesday at the latest (so they say).
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July 19, 2011, 05:35:02 PM
 #25

Look like that CNN video caused the price to spike up. I was wondering why it was in the $12's to bounce back up so rapidly.

As it has probably been explained before, the lag time between getting an account registered, funded, then pulling the trigger on a trade is longer than the time interval between the story and the price increase.

No cigar, maybe check back in a week to see if there was some casual effect.

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Vitalik Buterin
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July 19, 2011, 05:56:13 PM
 #26

Having just witnessed the two-dollar plus rally from 12.50 just now, I'm not subscribing to the 'slow death' theory either.

How do you know that's not just interventionist policy on the part of some early adopters?

Question 2: if it is, does it matter?

Argumentum ad lunam: the fallacy that because Bitcoin's price is rising really fast the currency must be a speculative bubble and/or Ponzi scheme.
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July 19, 2011, 06:02:16 PM
 #27

Having just witnessed the two-dollar plus rally from 12.50 just now, I'm not subscribing to the 'slow death' theory either.

How do you know that's not just interventionist policy on the part of some early adopters?

Question 2: if it is, does it matter?

Early adopters would be rich in btc, not in USD. Consequently, while the early adopters are more likely to be able to drive the price of BTC down by selling, they're less likely to drive it up by buying.

There seems to be the conventional wisdom around that the price was on a downward slide, held back every now and then by the intervention of someone putting up a wall. But there is the alternative analysis, which is that the price was on a steady climb, BROUGHT DOWN every now and then by someone putting up a wall below it.

Time will tell, I guess.
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July 19, 2011, 10:23:58 PM
 #28

I've had the feeling for some time now that the Bitcoin exchange rate is being artificially depressed. I really wish I had the USD to act on it.

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July 21, 2011, 04:50:03 PM
 #29


Mt. Gox, last 4 weeks.

It's been 4 weeks now since Mt. Gox came back up after their outage and rollback. The trend since then is rather clear. On average, Bitcoins are dropping $0.50 to $1 per week. The long, slow slide continues.

This is typical post-bubble market behavior. 
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July 21, 2011, 06:33:06 PM
 #30


Mt. Gox, last 4 weeks.

It's been 4 weeks now since Mt. Gox came back up after their outage and rollback. The trend since then is rather clear. On average, Bitcoins are dropping $0.50 to $1 per week. The long, slow slide continues.

This is typical post-bubble market behavior. 

Mr. Weekend I presume Tongue
Oldminer
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July 21, 2011, 07:53:59 PM
 #31


Mr. Weekend I presume Tongue

Yea a weekend that lasts 4 weeks

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netrin
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July 21, 2011, 08:18:03 PM
 #32

This is typical post-bubble market behavior.  

Bubbles burst not slide.


NASDAQ Composite (tech bubble)


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July 21, 2011, 09:09:48 PM
 #33

But afaik it did burst, from near 30USD to 17ish and then it entered in this "Long, slow slide"

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netrin
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July 21, 2011, 09:18:39 PM
 #34

Sure, there is no denying the irrationally exuberant bubble of greater fools from say $10 to $32 in about a week and the subsequent SYMMETRICAL crash. We are now in despair or the lee side bear trap. Maybe 2002 in the tech bubble collapse. But...



The numbers line up well. 1BTC = 100 in the composite index. And one tech year is one week in bitcoin land. Christmas could be analogous to technology stock in 2030. Smiley

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Oldminer
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July 22, 2011, 12:27:56 AM
 #35

Its looking like the slide might be over..finally..

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Cluster2k
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July 22, 2011, 03:27:17 AM
 #36

Its looking like the slide might be over..finally..

Funnily enough if BTC's price remains relatively static and doesn't budge from $13 to $14 for the next 3 months that would be the best possible thing to happen to bitcoin.  It wouldn't make the traders and speculators happy, but it would remove the extreme volatility that makes bitcoins very unattractive for real commerce.  Long may the mediocre price continue :-)

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netrin
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July 22, 2011, 04:18:14 AM
 #37

Funnily enough if BTC's price remains relatively static and doesn't budge from $13 to $14 for the next 3 months that would be the best possible thing to happen to bitcoin.  It wouldn't make the traders and speculators happy, but it would remove the extreme volatility that makes bitcoins very unattractive for real commerce.  Long may the mediocre price continue :-)

This old thinking doesn't make sense. Certainly bitcoins, like any other scarcity must plateau, but only after accelerating toward saturation; It's growth rate will initially tend to follow a Sigmoid curve. If we've already plateaued then call me infidel because the bitcoin economy is unsustainable at this level.

It makes sense to me that most growth now is seen in exchanges and utilities. We need liquidity now before we can attract Meze Grills. Merchants need customers and positive speculation brings customers. We are in an early adopter phase. If merchants want to get involved, learn the ropes, be first to market, they'll profit handsomely in the long run. Merchants must also take risk to reap great rewards. Otherwise, we're not ready for them and they are not ready for us.

Bitcoins will continue to have numerous bubbles like a leaf falling in reverse. Swish up, overshoot, slow correction, swish up, overshoot, slow correction, swish up... doubling at minimum each time as we gravitate toward mainstream. If you don't believe this, you haven't quite grasped the potential. There are only two options for bitcoins: Fringe failure or historic disruption.

This Long, slow slide is the beach pulling away before the tsunami.


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piramida
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July 22, 2011, 12:18:01 PM
 #38


This Long, slow slide is the beach pulling away before the tsunami.


Ah, such a beautiful analogy, thanks.

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netrin
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July 22, 2011, 01:06:33 PM
 #39


This Long, slow slide is the beach pulling away before the tsunami.


Ah, such a beautiful analogy, thanks.

Bitcoin was hit by a perfect storm (massive media exposure, government inquiry, bubble and pop, virus stealing wallets, and hack at the major exchange), the media witnessed the results and was not kind. Whether for love or hate, bitcoin is now on every economists' radar.  The next hundred-day cycle will be in the lime light and that bubble too will pop. The fresh blood won't recognize this pattern even after the fifth round.

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July 22, 2011, 02:42:21 PM
 #40

bulls are preparing to fight, bears have fear
http://bitcoinity.org/markets?currency=USD&exchange=mtgox

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