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Author Topic: Sentiments indicate globally disruptive event in 2018 that will tank markets  (Read 43 times)
MarquiseMuseum
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February 21, 2018, 04:24:27 PM
 #1

-The event is unknown it could be cyber/natural/political/financial

-Sentiments are extrapolated from my experience since 2001 and is based on the following indicators:

-trump/bush following 8 years of democratic rule

-both presidents early into mandates

-trumps past bankruptcy will return to haunt him, his reputation will be destroyed during presidency and not until years into the new democratic ruler will people understand that his actions during the crisis helped speed recovery, similarly to how he returned from bankruptcy in the 90s a wealthier man. He will not live to experience that praise because it is many years in the future

-market unease but escalation requires definitive external trigger such as subprime/ or 9/11 or natural disaster (tsunami 2011)

-stock market requires disruptive trigger to affect investor psychology, the trigger will conceal government incompetence and direct attention outwards, this is a crowd control strategy since roman era:

https://books.google.cz/books?id=mkikAwAAQBAJ&pg=PA159&lpg=PA159&dq=unite+against+external+threat+rome&source=bl&ots=QxYJ0Dw1Y9&sig=OYt43WbSllsGgbg9GXZ9cyouB6o&hl=sv&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjc7ojlsrfZAhVDDywKHSK6AvMQ6AEIJzAA#v=onepage&q=unite%20against%20external%20threat%20rome&f=false

-1998 was famously a down year during dotcom bubble, peak in 2000, same deal 2018

Theorised macro economic movements 2018-2019:

-Real estate price stagnation or decline due to rising interest rates

-Dollar scepticism or actual devaluation due to inflation/debt

-increased KPI, less money in citizen pocket

-crypto -90% briefly at some point during 2018,then:

scenario 1) boom starting mid 2019 until 2020
scenario 2) slow decline until halving 2020+6months until market reaction then boom 2021
scenario 3 (hybrid): crypto affected by the coming global trigger, recovery wave 1 mid 2019 until halving 2020, wave 2 following halving 6 months later peak late 2021

-stock market is the corner stone and must be wiped out from an external trigger which will be naturally or artificially induced

-commodity markets movement: unknown possibly significantly up as the "safe haven"

-Crypto will also become a safe haven but it will be a slow starter due to being a new market

Brace yourself, don't buy in too early, and don't sell in panic at the bottom, save capital for the blood bath and become rich in less than 18 months. Whatever is coming, It will strike hard and cause market turmoil, traditional safe havens first to recover, followed by crypto, but first, very big collapse.

-after the big event, crypto will emerge as a foundation of economy 2.0. Basic income for everyone could become a reality, a citizens democracy founded on blockchain. It could also become dystopian if the dark aspects of blockchain are used to oppress.

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February 21, 2018, 04:29:46 PM
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Can you explain?  You sound like a lunatic. 
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February 21, 2018, 04:59:53 PM
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Can you explain?  You sound like a lunatic. 

Have to say I agree. There are some noteworthy points but it's so hard to pick them out of the rest and they're not really of any value. Just potential reasons why crashes normally happen. Saying that financial markets crash on large events like 9/11 isn't really anything we don't already know.

MarquiseMuseum
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February 22, 2018, 02:38:31 PM
 #4

we'll see.

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