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Author Topic: Proving that my gambling script works.  (Read 1283 times)
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alia
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March 05, 2018, 01:57:01 PM
 #161

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
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March 05, 2018, 02:01:42 PM
 #162

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?

No it doesn't because it doesn't matter. You always have a 90% and a 10% chance of getting a green or a red ball respectively no matter if it's the beginning or not. What if I play 10 bets and they are all wins and I stop playing for 1 day and comeback, is that a new beginning now? Can I use the method again? What determines the ''beginning''?
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March 05, 2018, 02:07:10 PM
 #163

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?

No it doesn't because it doesn't matter. You always have a 90% and a 10% chance of getting a green or a red ball respectively no matter if it's the beginning or not. What if I play 10 bets and they are all wins and I stop playing for 1 day and comeback, is that a new beginning now? Can I use the method again? What determines the ''beginning''?

Ah, there's a point I can't refute. You are totally right. But in my empirical evidence, if I gamble a bit with customer deposits and stop at 20-30-40% profit, it works out well. I don't really know why, but hey, it works! Maybe I just got lucky. Good thing I stopped using/selling the script eh

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
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March 05, 2018, 02:22:35 PM
 #164

TL:DR for the last 9 pages:

Maybe I just got lucky.


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alia
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March 05, 2018, 02:25:39 PM
 #165

TL:DR for the last 9 pages:

Maybe I just got lucky.

Thanks for putting up with me. Guess you were right all along!

I'll still keep trying to win my way to bankruptcy getting 21 million BTC

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
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March 05, 2018, 03:43:24 PM
 #166

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.

alia
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March 05, 2018, 03:48:08 PM
 #167

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.

Do you mean bona fide as in "geniune" or "without intention to deceive"? Because only one is true

edit: just read the rest of the sentence. well no, if I wanted to scam, I would've 1) taken customer deposits and 2) kept aTriz's 2k but whatever!

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
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March 05, 2018, 03:55:53 PM
 #168

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.

Do you mean bona fide as in "geniune" or "without intention to deceive"? Because only one is true

edit: just read the rest of the sentence. well no, if I wanted to scam, I would've 1) taken customer deposits and 2) kept aTriz's 2k but whatever!

Yes, you could have done a bigger scam. Fortunately you got caught, unfortunately that seems to be due to your gambling addiction. I hope you get better.

alia
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March 05, 2018, 04:00:00 PM
 #169

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.

Do you mean bona fide as in "geniune" or "without intention to deceive"? Because only one is true

edit: just read the rest of the sentence. well no, if I wanted to scam, I would've 1) taken customer deposits and 2) kept aTriz's 2k but whatever!

Yes, you could have done a bigger scam. Fortunately you got caught, unfortunately that seems to be due to your gambling addiction. I hope you get better.

Yes. Your whole account is just a scam waiting to happen. 1000+ BTC exit scam. Right? Right?

Stop making baseless allegations made from thin air, loser. Your stupidity makes me want to go to bed... goodnight

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
JayJuanGee
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March 05, 2018, 05:39:51 PM
 #170

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.


YOU are completely wrong, suchmoon.


Since math "mumbo" jumpo does not apply to alia, s/he/it is 110% scammer...   more than genuine and more than bona fide.  Just MOAR than more.   Shocked

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
Erza
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March 05, 2018, 11:17:58 PM
 #171

No, not how it works. For example, say you're tossing a coin and counting the number of heads and tails appear.

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

In the same way, the more bets you make, the more likely you are to lose money. With a fixed BR, the beginning can be profitable, but given infinite time and infinite money, you will lose all of it. That's just how it works.

You can't use the example as coin toss because in coin toss game, there is only 2 possibilities either head or tail but in dice games it has too many possibilities, like xx.xx which is different one number is already much difference with it

And btw you already know that it is not profitable in the end, I am not saying about dice games yet which is having some house edge but you said that about 50/50 chance games and you still want to prove to everyone that you are going to profit with your script? This is unreasonable thing that you are saying
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March 05, 2018, 11:48:29 PM
Merited by nullius (1)
 #172

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?

No it doesn't because it doesn't matter. You always have a 90% and a 10% chance of getting a green or a red ball respectively no matter if it's the beginning or not. What if I play 10 bets and they are all wins and I stop playing for 1 day and comeback, is that a new beginning now? Can I use the method again? What determines the ''beginning''?

Ah, there's a point I can't refute. You are totally right. But in my empirical evidence, if I gamble a bit with customer deposits and stop at 20-30-40% profit, it works out well. I don't really know why, but hey, it works! Maybe I just got lucky. Good thing I stopped using/selling the script eh


Well I give you props for admitting it and you probably should be locking this thread, it's getting repetitive.
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