Proving that my gambling script works.

[JayJuanGee]

That said, I agree with suchmoon.  And I am leaning back toward the theory that you sincerely believe in, and are obsessed with your script.  Take a break.  Please.

That is bullshit.  You really could not believe that there is any level of sincerity left in alia about this financial poverty story.. a script that supposedly can make you rich, but you are employing such script while being in a state of desperation.  S/he/it already shown enough sophistication in thread posts and does not believe that crap.  

S/he/it is only blowing smoke about some fictional script, and if s/he/it gambles using such supposedly existing script, then s/he/it deserves to lose whatever remaining finances that s/he/it is betting on these kinds of nonsensical plays.

We are getting past any kind of empathy stage and into the absurd, no?  Sure, some of the alia claims are funny, but you really cannot be taking any of them seriously, at this point, right?

Empathy?  I’m on record as being so strongly in principle against empathy [see midway through post] that I’ve been accused of psychopathy.  I replied by dropping Nietzsche on all the bleeding hearts.  You may rest assured that I am not motivated by “empathy” for Alia.

(I also have another polemic in my drafts box against empathy.  Too much forum drama.  Too much distraction.)

Perhaps indirectly I may have been suggesting something about your level of empathy; however, it seems that my main point remains that alia has devolved into such an outrageous status of incredulity that would be difficult for any reasonable person to believe much if anything that she is saying, even if you had continued to grant a large amount of benefit of the doubt.  At some point, the benefit of the doubt granting becomes too much because there remains almost no redemption avenue for alia and her extraordinary claims on several fronts.

[alia]

That said, I agree with suchmoon.  And I am leaning back toward the theory that you sincerely believe in, and are obsessed with your script.  Take a break.  Please.

That is bullshit.  You really could not believe that there is any level of sincerity left in alia about this financial poverty story.. a script that supposedly can make you rich, but you are employing such script while being in a state of desperation.  S/he/it already shown enough sophistication in thread posts and does not believe that crap.  

S/he/it is only blowing smoke about some fictional script, and if s/he/it gambles using such supposedly existing script, then s/he/it deserves to lose whatever remaining finances that s/he/it is betting on these kinds of nonsensical plays.

We are getting past any kind of empathy stage and into the absurd, no?  Sure, some of the alia claims are funny, but you really cannot be taking any of them seriously, at this point, right?

Empathy?  I’m on record as being so strongly in principle against empathy [see midway through post] that I’ve been accused of psychopathy.  I replied by dropping Nietzsche on all the bleeding hearts.  You may rest assured that I am not motivated by “empathy” for Alia.

(I also have another polemic in my drafts box against empathy.  Too much forum drama.  Too much distraction.)

Perhaps indirectly I may have been suggesting something about your level of empathy; however, it seems that my main point remains that alia has devolved into such an outrageous status of incredulity that would be difficult for any reasonable person to believe much if anything that she is saying, even if you had continued to grant a large amount of benefit of the doubt.  At some point, the benefit of the doubt granting becomes too much because there remains almost no redemption avenue for alia and her extraordinary claims on several fronts.

Come on, the 21m btc thing was obviously a joke. And I don't need empathy, tyvm

[JayJuanGee]

That said, I agree with suchmoon.  And I am leaning back toward the theory that you sincerely believe in, and are obsessed with your script.  Take a break.  Please.

That is bullshit.  You really could not believe that there is any level of sincerity left in alia about this financial poverty story.. a script that supposedly can make you rich, but you are employing such script while being in a state of desperation.  S/he/it already shown enough sophistication in thread posts and does not believe that crap.  

S/he/it is only blowing smoke about some fictional script, and if s/he/it gambles using such supposedly existing script, then s/he/it deserves to lose whatever remaining finances that s/he/it is betting on these kinds of nonsensical plays.

We are getting past any kind of empathy stage and into the absurd, no?  Sure, some of the alia claims are funny, but you really cannot be taking any of them seriously, at this point, right?

Empathy?  I’m on record as being so strongly in principle against empathy [see midway through post] that I’ve been accused of psychopathy.  I replied by dropping Nietzsche on all the bleeding hearts.  You may rest assured that I am not motivated by “empathy” for Alia.

(I also have another polemic in my drafts box against empathy.  Too much forum drama.  Too much distraction.)

Perhaps indirectly I may have been suggesting something about your level of empathy; however, it seems that my main point remains that alia has devolved into such an outrageous status of incredulity that would be difficult for any reasonable person to believe much if anything that she is saying, even if you had continued to grant a large amount of benefit of the doubt.  At some point, the benefit of the doubt granting becomes too much because there remains almost no redemption avenue for alia and her extraordinary claims on several fronts.

Come on, the 21m btc thing was obviously a joke. And I don't need empathy, tyvm

Of course, anyone could recognize one claim of winning back all of the bitcoins, including Satoshi's, as an exaggerated joke.

But you are not just one exaggerated joke but instead, seeming to be unfolding as a walking bag of contradictions.

[alia]

That said, I agree with suchmoon.  And I am leaning back toward the theory that you sincerely believe in, and are obsessed with your script.  Take a break.  Please.

That is bullshit.  You really could not believe that there is any level of sincerity left in alia about this financial poverty story.. a script that supposedly can make you rich, but you are employing such script while being in a state of desperation.  S/he/it already shown enough sophistication in thread posts and does not believe that crap.  

S/he/it is only blowing smoke about some fictional script, and if s/he/it gambles using such supposedly existing script, then s/he/it deserves to lose whatever remaining finances that s/he/it is betting on these kinds of nonsensical plays.

We are getting past any kind of empathy stage and into the absurd, no?  Sure, some of the alia claims are funny, but you really cannot be taking any of them seriously, at this point, right?

Empathy?  I’m on record as being so strongly in principle against empathy [see midway through post] that I’ve been accused of psychopathy.  I replied by dropping Nietzsche on all the bleeding hearts.  You may rest assured that I am not motivated by “empathy” for Alia.

(I also have another polemic in my drafts box against empathy.  Too much forum drama.  Too much distraction.)

Perhaps indirectly I may have been suggesting something about your level of empathy; however, it seems that my main point remains that alia has devolved into such an outrageous status of incredulity that would be difficult for any reasonable person to believe much if anything that she is saying, even if you had continued to grant a large amount of benefit of the doubt.  At some point, the benefit of the doubt granting becomes too much because there remains almost no redemption avenue for alia and her extraordinary claims on several fronts.

Come on, the 21m btc thing was obviously a joke. And I don't need empathy, tyvm

Of course, anyone could recognize one claim of winning back all of the bitcoins, including Satoshi's, as an exaggerated joke.

But you are not just one exaggerated joke but instead, seeming to be unfolding as a walking bag of contradictions.

If I am a "scammer" as so many claim (even though I kept my side of the contract when aTriz didn't), then why are you wasting time on me?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

If I am a "scammer" as so many claim (even though I kept my side of the contract when aTriz didn't), then why are you wasting time on me?

1) Huh?  If there was a contractual reason for a refund to aTriz, and you lived up to your contractual obligation to make that refund, then that reflects well upon you, but it does not in any way prove that aTriz was either in breach of his side of that contract or otherwise non-compliant with his obligations in that contract.  You are making a ridiculous conclusion to assert merely because you decided to give the refund in compliance with contractual obligations that you had, and therefore your seemingly compliant acts somehow help to establish in any way that aTriz was in breach of the contract or that there were any other facts to establish that aTriz was in breach of that particular contract.

2) you are correct that currently communicating with you regarding these various subjects of your not so stellar reputation and the gambling script does seem to be a bit of a waste of time; however, sometimes even trolls leave loose ends in threads (and on forums) that need to be cleaned up, and sometimes, it can still be in the public interest to respond to some of the disingenuous points, even when being made by a troll.  In your case, even if you might not be a troll exactly, we are seeming to run into a lot of repetition here in this thread, and there does not seem to be too many more points to address with you.  Maybe at some point mods will force close this thread, because the level of information being shared herein seems to be devolving into confusion and perhaps disinformation, rather than any kind of information that would be helpful to anyone.

[alia]

[edited out]

If I am a "scammer" as so many claim (even though I kept my side of the contract when aTriz didn't), then why are you wasting time on me?

1) Huh?  If there was a contractual reason for a refund to aTriz, and you lived up to your contractual obligation to make that refund, then that reflects well upon you, but it does not in any way prove that aTriz was either in breach of his side of that contract or otherwise non-compliant with his obligations in that contract.  You are making a ridiculous conclusion to assert merely because you decided to give the refund in compliance with contractual obligations that you had, and therefore your seemingly compliant acts somehow help to establish in any way that aTriz was in breach of the contract or that there were any other facts to establish that aTriz was in breach of that particular contract.

2) you are correct that currently communicating with you regarding these various subjects of your not so stellar reputation and the gambling script does seem to be a bit of a waste of time; however, sometimes even trolls leave loose ends in threads (and on forums) that need to be cleaned up, and sometimes, it can still be in the public interest to respond to some of the disingenuous points, even when being made by a troll.  In your case, even if you might not be a troll exactly, we are seeming to run into a lot of repetition here in this thread, and there does not seem to be too many more points to address with you.  Maybe at some point mods will force close this thread, because the level of information being shared herein seems to be devolving into confusion and perhaps disinformation, rather than any kind of information that would be helpful to anyone.

I did not refund him because of a tingling in my vag. He stated that he will no longer continue payments (thus breaking the contract) and I refunded him out of goodwill.

[nullius]

why are you wasting time on me?

Already answered this.  We are going in circles.

Wait.  I thought you weren’t selling it now—right?

Please do realize, nobody here is personally concerned with proving you wrong.  The motive of people arguing with you in this thread is to make sure that nobody else loses money by buying or investing in a mathematical impossibility.  If you were claiming something wacky which could not foreseeably cost others money (as Jude Austin with his alleged address collision), then I would have shrugged and gone away by about midway through page 2 of this thread.  For my part, I don?t have time for more than casual debunking of such things.

@JayJuanGee, I wished to reply to something you said above—perhaps later.

In a nutshell:  Specifically in this thread, as to motives, I am genuinely puzzled as to whether Alia is scamming, blinded by a gambler’s obsession with discovering the magic trick to winning, or some mix of both.  This question of mens rea (“guilty mind”) is totally irrelevant to my treatment of a mathematically impossible script, which could cause others to lose money if Alia were to commit the actus reus (“guilty act”) of again trying to sell it or take “investors”.  But culpability is relevant to how I treat Alia herself.

(And just in case you were thinking something else re “empathy”:  I assure you that even if against the odds, it be true that Alia is a girl, I find “mathematical mumbo jumbo” and “stupid equations” sneering somewhat less attractive than an active outbreak of genital herpes.)


Oh, my Bitcoin.  I wrote the foregoing before the following post appeared, then was suddenly interrupted by a little IRL incident.  I will take this as empirical evidence of my psychic powers, or cosmic influence over random events, or something of that nature.  And now, I will use this power to win at provably fair gambling!

I find “mathematical mumbo jumbo” and “stupid equations” sneering somewhat less attractive than an active outbreak of genital herpes.

I did not refund him because of a tingling in my vag.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

If I am a "scammer" as so many claim (even though I kept my side of the contract when aTriz didn't), then why are you wasting time on me?

1) Huh?  If there was a contractual reason for a refund to aTriz, and you lived up to your contractual obligation to make that refund, then that reflects well upon you, but it does not in any way prove that aTriz was either in breach of his side of that contract or otherwise non-compliant with his obligations in that contract.  You are making a ridiculous conclusion to assert merely because you decided to give the refund in compliance with contractual obligations that you had, and therefore your seemingly compliant acts somehow help to establish in any way that aTriz was in breach of the contract or that there were any other facts to establish that aTriz was in breach of that particular contract.

2) you are correct that currently communicating with you regarding these various subjects of your not so stellar reputation and the gambling script does seem to be a bit of a waste of time; however, sometimes even trolls leave loose ends in threads (and on forums) that need to be cleaned up, and sometimes, it can still be in the public interest to respond to some of the disingenuous points, even when being made by a troll.  In your case, even if you might not be a troll exactly, we are seeming to run into a lot of repetition here in this thread, and there does not seem to be too many more points to address with you.  Maybe at some point mods will force close this thread, because the level of information being shared herein seems to be devolving into confusion and perhaps disinformation, rather than any kind of information that would be helpful to anyone.

I did not refund him because of a tingling in my vag. He stated that he will no longer continue payments (thus breaking the contract) and I refunded him out of goodwill.

It does not work like that, alia.  Let's assume, for hypothetical sake, that aTriz said that he intended not to pay you anymore, yet he had already paid you for five months in advance.   I doubt that you can call intention to breach as the same as an actual breach, so if you are asserting that his assertion that he was not going to pay you anymore, 4 months down the road rises to a breach, then you are going to be hard-pressed to find anyone willing to agree with you that there would be any breach until 4 months down the road, assuming that he did not pay you at that time... anyhow, you should understand that if there were going to be a breach from aTriz, then such breach would have begun upon non-payment 4 months down the road rather than his statement of such intention.   

I don't know if we need to say anything more, there were some arguments asserting that you should pay him back, and you agreed to do so, while bitching about it the whole time as you sent your 1 satoshi per byte payment that ended up still going through pretty quickly.  What else we need to be saying on that topic, except that you seem to be arguing non-existent facts, or alternatively some pie in the sky breach of contract theory based on statement of intention rather than any actual breach.

[alia]

[edited out]

If I am a "scammer" as so many claim (even though I kept my side of the contract when aTriz didn't), then why are you wasting time on me?

1) Huh?  If there was a contractual reason for a refund to aTriz, and you lived up to your contractual obligation to make that refund, then that reflects well upon you, but it does not in any way prove that aTriz was either in breach of his side of that contract or otherwise non-compliant with his obligations in that contract.  You are making a ridiculous conclusion to assert merely because you decided to give the refund in compliance with contractual obligations that you had, and therefore your seemingly compliant acts somehow help to establish in any way that aTriz was in breach of the contract or that there were any other facts to establish that aTriz was in breach of that particular contract.

2) you are correct that currently communicating with you regarding these various subjects of your not so stellar reputation and the gambling script does seem to be a bit of a waste of time; however, sometimes even trolls leave loose ends in threads (and on forums) that need to be cleaned up, and sometimes, it can still be in the public interest to respond to some of the disingenuous points, even when being made by a troll.  In your case, even if you might not be a troll exactly, we are seeming to run into a lot of repetition here in this thread, and there does not seem to be too many more points to address with you.  Maybe at some point mods will force close this thread, because the level of information being shared herein seems to be devolving into confusion and perhaps disinformation, rather than any kind of information that would be helpful to anyone.

I did not refund him because of a tingling in my vag. He stated that he will no longer continue payments (thus breaking the contract) and I refunded him out of goodwill.

It does not work like that, alia.  Let's assume, for hypothetical sake, that aTriz said that he intended not to pay you anymore, yet he had already paid you for five months in advance.   I doubt that you can call intention to breach as the same as an actual breach, so if you are asserting that his assertion that he was not going to pay you anymore, 4 months down the road rises to a breach, then you are going to be hard-pressed to find anyone willing to agree with you that there would be any breach until 4 months down the road, assuming that he did not pay you at that time... anyhow, you should understand that if there were going to be a breach from aTriz, then such breach would have begun upon non-payment 4 months down the road rather than his statement of such intention.   

I don't know if we need to say anything more, there were some arguments asserting that you should pay him back, and you agreed to do so, while bitching about it the whole time as you sent your 1 satoshi per byte payment that ended up still going through pretty quickly.  What else we need to be saying on that topic, except that you seem to be arguing non-existent facts, or alternatively some pie in the sky breach of contract theory based on statement of intention rather than any actual breach.

Statement of intention yes, but he stated he wouldn't pay me anymore. A 3 year contract would've ended in 5 months. It is definitely breaking the contract. Ask aTriz yourself. He's lucky I chose to refund him

[alia]

why are you wasting time on me?

Already answered this.  We are going in circles.

Wait.  I thought you weren?t selling it now?right?

Please do realize, nobody here is personally concerned with proving you wrong.  The motive of people arguing with you in this thread is to make sure that nobody else loses money by buying or investing in a mathematical impossibility.  If you were claiming something wacky which could not foreseeably cost others money (as Jude Austin with his alleged address collision), then I would have shrugged and gone away by about midway through page 2 of this thread.  For my part, I don?t have time for more than casual debunking of such things.

@JayJuanGee, I wished to reply to something you said above—perhaps later.

In a nutshell:  Specifically in this thread, as to motives, I am genuinely puzzled as to whether Alia is scamming, blinded by a gambler’s obsession with discovering the magic trick to winning, or some mix of both.  This question of mens rea (“guilty mind”) is totally irrelevant to my treatment of a mathematically impossible script, which could cause others to lose money if Alia were to commit the actus reus (“guilty act”) of again trying to sell it or take “investors”.  But culpability is relevant to how I treat Alia herself.

(And just in case you were thinking something else re “empathy”:  I assure you that even if against the odds, it be true that Alia is a girl, I find “mathematical mumbo jumbo” and “stupid equations” sneering somewhat less attractive than an active outbreak of genital herpes.)


Oh, my Bitcoin.  I wrote the foregoing before the following post appeared, then was suddenly interrupted by a little IRL incident.  I will take this as empirical evidence of my psychic powers, or cosmic influence over random events, or something of that nature.  And now, I will use this power to win at provably fair gambling!

I find “mathematical mumbo jumbo” and “stupid equations” sneering somewhat less attractive than an active outbreak of genital herpes.

I did not refund him because of a tingling in my vag.

I made a script that made me profit. I attempted to sell it to make some more risk-free profit (as opposed to using my own funds on the script which is relatively far more risky). I stopped selling the script after people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable, a fact I had stated many times). I scammed nobody, in fact aTriz scammed be and I refunded him for it. Sums it up pretty good

[Quickseller]

people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,

It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term

a fact I had stated many times).

I would dispute this.

[alia]

people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,

It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term

a fact I had stated many times).

I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

[Quickseller]

people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,

It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term

a fact I had stated many times).

I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

"one of" being the key words in that statement...

[Astargath]

people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,

It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term

a fact I had stated many times).

I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.

[alia]

people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,

It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term

a fact I had stated many times).

I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.

EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.

[LoyceMobile]

EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.

The expected value is negative on all bets, whether you win or lose doesn't matter for this.

[Astargath]

people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,

It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term

a fact I had stated many times).

I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.

EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.

There is no such thing as expected positive value in the beginning that turns into an expected negative value in the long term, it's either positive or negative all the way otherwise how does the script even know it's the beginning? No matter how many millions of bets you have done the next bet is literally like the first one, you don't have more or less chances of anything, it's the same.

[alia]

people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,

It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term

a fact I had stated many times).

I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.

EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.

There is no such thing as expected positive value in the beginning that turns into an expected negative value in the long term, it's either positive or negative all the way otherwise how does the script even know it's the beginning? No matter how many millions of bets you have done the next bet is literally like the first one, you don't have more or less chances of anything, it's the same.

No, not how it works. For example, say you're tossing a coin and counting the number of heads and tails appear.

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

In the same way, the more bets you make, the more likely you are to lose money. With a fixed BR, the beginning can be profitable, but given infinite time and infinite money, you will lose all of it. That's just how it works.

[o_e_l_e_o]

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct¹, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.


1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.

[Astargath]

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct¹, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.


1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.

Yes, I don't know why this thread is still here, it's clear that op does not understand basic math. The beginning can be profitable just like it can be not profitable.