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Author Topic: SilkRoad domain Seized?  (Read 46592 times)
greyhawk
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October 08, 2013, 12:40:59 PM
 #481

Unlikely yes. But the more I think about this the more I realize DPR has one thing going for him. He does not in any way look like a criminal mastermind. He is a young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered man. Not your typical violent drug trafficker.


LOL, do you know any drug traffickers in real life? Because the "typical violent drug trafficker" is a Hollywood movie cliche and rather the exception to the rule.
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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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October 08, 2013, 12:41:13 PM
 #482

DPR is supposed to appear in court for his bail hearing tomorrow. The prosecution is going to label him a flight risk but I think his defense has a shot at getting him bail. It will probably be a steep bail (1 mil+ maybe?) but if he is able to post it all manner of things involving his bitcoin stash could happen starting tomorrow.

Large scale drug dealer, suspected of involvement in two murders for hire, and demonstrated ability to arrange for false IDs.
Bail seems...unlikely.

Unlikely yes. But the more I think about this the more I realize DPR has one thing going for him. He does not in any way look like a criminal mastermind. He is a young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered man. Not your typical violent drug trafficker. I think a judge and jury are going to have a hard time seeing this guy running a major drug/violence ring. He may get lucky tomorrow and get bail. I personally don't agree with giving bail to anybody implicated in a murder but it happens more than you think.

I think anyone should be allowed to be a free man during the trial. Innocent until proven guilty. Any form of incarceration is a violation of the constitution of most countries and therefore in itself a serious crime.

On the other hand, man having possible access to more hidden btc can flee the country given chance, and they do not want that.


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Chronikka
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October 08, 2013, 12:42:59 PM
 #483

Unlikely yes. But the more I think about this the more I realize DPR has one thing going for him. He does not in any way look like a criminal mastermind. He is a young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered man. Not your typical violent drug trafficker.


LOL, do you know any drug traffickers in real life? Because the "typical violent drug trafficker" is a Hollywood movie cliche and rather the exception to the rule.

You clearly missed the point. That is what the prosecution is going to paint him as. Nobody is going to believe it.

"The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination"  -Albert Einstein
greyhawk
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October 08, 2013, 12:46:52 PM
 #484

Unlikely yes. But the more I think about this the more I realize DPR has one thing going for him. He does not in any way look like a criminal mastermind. He is a young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered man. Not your typical violent drug trafficker.


LOL, do you know any drug traffickers in real life? Because the "typical violent drug trafficker" is a Hollywood movie cliche and rather the exception to the rule.

You clearly missed the point. That is what the prosecution is going to paint him as. Nobody is going to believe it.

Why do you think the prosecution would be idiotic enough to go for that angle? They're not accusing him of trying to beat those to men to death with his awesome ninja skillz, they're accussing him of ordering hits on these men. And who orders hits instead of dirtying his own hands? Exactly: young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men.
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October 08, 2013, 12:48:10 PM
 #485

And who orders hits instead of dirtying his own hands? Exactly: young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men.

Funny that. Young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men are also the ones that lie about other young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men ordering hits on people.
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October 08, 2013, 12:49:39 PM
 #486

And who orders hits instead of dirtying his own hands? Exactly: young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men.

Funny that. Young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men are also the ones that lie about other young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men ordering hits on people.

There's only one logical conclusion. Let's order hits on all young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men. Problem solved.
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October 08, 2013, 12:50:41 PM
 #487

I personally don't agree with giving bail to anybody implicated in a murder but it happens more than you think.

So far, he isn't implicated in an actual murder of any sort, but an attempt to contract for two, at least one of which might have involved some degree of entrapment.  The prosecutors will of course argue blah blah blah violent drug criminal, kingpin, facing life without parole so likely to flee, able to obtain false IDs, etc.  Defense, if it is competent, will argue something like strong ties to the community, perhaps offer to put DPR in custody of some family member who ensures appearance, blah blah even actual murderers are entitled to bail, prosecution has failed to show any signs of flight risk other than just the crimes they're accusing him of.  Also that he's not a drug dealer, but just ran a website, this isn't Al Capone here, and these "hitman" contracts are cartoonishly ridiculous.  Defendant doesn't pose a threat, etc.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's denied bail, but I think the most likely event is that he is granted bail, but it is high, and perhaps too high for him to meet.
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October 08, 2013, 12:51:26 PM
 #488

Let's order hits on all young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men. Problem solved.

My solution is to give no credence to the words of young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men. I used to be one and I know how much I lied back then just to get what I wanted.
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October 08, 2013, 12:53:53 PM
 #489

Let's order hits on all young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men. Problem solved.

My solution is to give no credence to the words of young, good looking, educated, seemingly mild mannered men. I used to be one and I know how much I lied back then just to get what I wanted.

And it worked didn't it? Thats why I say he has a shot at bail.

"The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination"  -Albert Einstein
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October 08, 2013, 12:59:24 PM
 #490

Thats why I say he has a shot at bail.

Judging by their backgrounds and jobs, I'd say that DPR lies less than the guys that busted him. He should have a shot at bail in a just world, which means they'll probably keep him in jail. He's a high-profile example that they don't want to lose track of.
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October 08, 2013, 01:02:11 PM
 #491

Make sure you smile relaxed and confidently Smiley

Never sweat either. Always a dead giveaway.
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October 08, 2013, 01:59:15 PM
 #492

To me a flight risk is irrelevant: it's not his problem. Incarcerating him for being a flight risk is punishing him for a crime he hasn't committed yet (and might not commit at all).

Flight risk is the single most important factor in granting bail or not.
The purpose of setting a high bail figure is to ensure that the accused returns for trial, rather than fleeing.
In this case he:
a) Is accused of serious crimes (so has more incentive to flee)
b) Has proven access to forged documentation (showing intent to evade detection, and increased likelihood of successfully fleeing
c) Is assumed to have access to large amounts of untraceable money (increased likelihood of successfully fleeing, and reduced incentive not to give up bail money)
d) Has significant underworld connections (increased likelihood of successfully fleeing)

Bail would be extremely surprising in this case.

And from another poster:
Quote
strong ties to the community

Exactly what strong ties?
He conducted is business anonymously, with people from around the world, and was living in a shared flat.
Strong ties to drug dealers isn't going to help with bail Smiley

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October 08, 2013, 02:07:58 PM
 #493

And from another poster:
Quote
strong ties to the community

Exactly what strong ties?
He conducted is business anonymously, with people from around the world, and was living in a shared flat.
Strong ties to drug dealers isn't going to help with bail Smiley

That's up to the defense lawyer to magic up.  It's a relevant consideration as to flight risk.  The "community" is also which one, exactly?  The defense should argue it's to whichever community he's being released to, rather than necessarily where he lived.  After all, he lived in California, is charged in New York, and would be released on bail to where?  Into the home of a close family member who is the one posting the bail or signing the bail bond would probably be the best option (if he actually wants to get bailed out).  He should also do his best to appear willing and eager to appear at trial and confident of the likelihood of acquittal on at least the most serious charges, so as to appear to be less of a flight risk.

I'd be surprised if any of that happened without someone other than a federal public defender, though.  In that situation, I'd expect either onerous bail or no bail at all.  The fact most of his funds are subject to forfeiture would mean he's likely to have to appeal to third parties for a defense.  He may be effectively destitute without those funds.
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October 08, 2013, 08:07:02 PM
 #494

Flight risk is the single most important factor in granting bail or not.

I agree with you, and I would also add "destroy evidence"... remember there is a wallet (or several) with all the money (or what have remained) he gained from his activity. Do you think he will be allowed to go out on bail and further moving and hiding it?

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October 08, 2013, 08:09:01 PM
 #495

Anyone seen this yet.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/oct/07/fbi-bitcoin-silk-road-ross-ulbricht


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October 08, 2013, 08:46:04 PM
 #496

DPR is supposed to appear in court for his bail hearing tomorrow. The prosecution is going to label him a flight risk but I think his defense has a shot at getting him bail. It will probably be a steep bail (1 mil+ maybe?) but if he is able to post it all manner of things involving his bitcoin stash could happen starting tomorrow.

Large scale drug dealer, suspected of involvement in two murders for hire, and demonstrated ability to arrange for false IDs.
Bail seems...unlikely.

At the moment, he either hasn't yet been indicted in NY or there's an indictment which hasn't yet been unsealed.  Only part of the Maryland proceedings (which first started in May) have been unsealed so far.  If he even looks likes getting bail, the feds almost certainly have more charges in reserve. 

Summary of the legal issues here.

http://www.popehat.com/2013/10/02/the-silk-road-to-federal-prosecution-the-charges-against-ross-ulbricht/

All I can say is that this is Bitcoin. I don't believe it until I see six confirmations.
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October 08, 2013, 08:48:46 PM
 #497


“The FBI has not been able to get to Ulbricht’s personal Bitcoin yet,” wrote Hill. An FBI spokesperson said to Hill that the “$80m worth” that Ulbricht had “was held separately and is encrypted”.

And that is good news for the Bitcoin system.
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October 08, 2013, 09:06:49 PM
 #498

DPR is supposed to appear in court for his bail hearing tomorrow. The prosecution is going to label him a flight risk but I think his defense has a shot at getting him bail. It will probably be a steep bail (1 mil+ maybe?) but if he is able to post it all manner of things involving his bitcoin stash could happen starting tomorrow.

Large scale drug dealer, suspected of involvement in two murders for hire, and demonstrated ability to arrange for false IDs.
Bail seems...unlikely.

At the moment, he either hasn't yet been indicted in NY or there's an indictment which hasn't yet been unsealed.  Only part of the Maryland proceedings (which first started in May) have been unsealed so far.  If he even looks likes getting bail, the feds almost certainly have more charges in reserve. 

Summary of the legal issues here.

http://www.popehat.com/2013/10/02/the-silk-road-to-federal-prosecution-the-charges-against-ross-ulbricht/

Excellent Article Thanks

"The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination"  -Albert Einstein
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October 08, 2013, 09:18:07 PM
Last edit: October 08, 2013, 10:10:53 PM by repentance
 #499

Excellent Article Thanks

There's a rough timeline of the various mistakes made by DPR here.  It's been put together using only the information in the court documents which have been released so far.  When you see it all in one place put together in a coherent fashion, it becomes apparent why DPR getting caught was only a matter of time.  

Not all of the evidence the feds have is referenced in the unsealed court documents (this is acknowledged in the criminal complaint), but anyone who's even contemplating setting up a similar enterprise to SR should keep in mind just how many simple errors led to DPR's downfall.

http://shadowlife.cc/2013/10/tracking-the-silk-road-lessons-for-darknet-services/

http://shadowlife.cc/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/SR-Timeline.html

DPR aside, the human element is going to be the biggest challenge in operating any SR-like market place - because stuff like this will inevitably happen.

Quote
The denial and shitty feelings kick in knowing some people ive grown great relationships with have lost alot of money in my store within escrow. Such great relationships that a few customers trusted me to keep shipping info and i would just ship every friday knowing they will set up the payment a few days later when they get online.

Three mistakes right there. Vendor hold's customer's shipping info, buyer uses same delivery address on an ongoing basis, order is shipped (and therefore received) in a predictable pattern.

Over the long term, people get too comfortable and start sacrificing security for convenience.  The minute you start establishing personal relationships with others in enterprises where secrecy is vital, you start making yourself vulnerable.

All I can say is that this is Bitcoin. I don't believe it until I see six confirmations.
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November 18, 2013, 02:00:16 AM
Last edit: November 18, 2013, 06:05:31 AM by archangel689
 #500

All the modern examples of government-less areas of the world I can think of are countries where the state collapsed after a revolution or war, usually either quickly replaced by a (often worse) government, or constantly warring factions.

Dr. Benjamin Powell looked a dozen or so standard of living measures they could get reliably reported from Somalia over the course of 15-20 years. What we find is that these living measures decline dramatically from 1985-1990 (its last years of having a state). Since losing it's statelessness these living measures have improved dramatically. They rank in the top half of African countries. And they're near the top in access to telecommunications. They're the third biggest improver in life expectancy on the African continent since 1990.

They have improved in absolute terms and they've improved relative to the average on the continent.

We're not comparing the United States today to Somalia now. Somalia is definitely a poor impoverished country, like much of the African continent. What we need is relevant institutional comparisons. How well does any given country/culture do compared to it's less state or stateless alternatives. It's not fair to compare a first world country to a third world country regardless of the institutions we're comparing.

How does Somalia do in its statelessness compared to when it had a State and to the other 42-some sub Sahara countries? That's the relevant comparison.


http://benjaminwpowell.com/scholarly-publications/journal-articles/somalia-after-state-collapse.pdf

But absence of decision making is not really the same thing as absence of the rule of law, which is what DPR wanted.

This is a strawman. Market anarchy is not absence of law. Even the Somalis have law (Xeer), they just don't have a dominant state.

That's an empirical study, it even says so in the abstract. That's the kind of economics I find convincing - study the data.

1) There are many empricist economists and econometricans who are market anarchists.

2) "The statistical approach, unlike deductive inference, leaves the conditions under which established economic relations hold good fundamentally undetermined; and similarly, the objects to which they relate cannot be determined as unequivocally as by theory. Empirically established relations between various economic phenomena continue to present a problem to theory until the necessity for their interconnections can be demonstrated independently of any statistical evidence. The concepts on which such an explanation is based will be quite different from those by which statistical interconnections are demonstrated; they can be reached independently. Moreover, the corroboration of statistical evidence provides, in itself, no proof of correctness. A priori we cannot expect from statistics anything more than the stimulus provided by the indication of new problems. In thus emphasizing the fact that trade cycle theory, while it may serve as a basis for statistical research, can never itself be established by the latter, it is by no means desired to deprecate the value of the empirical method. On the contrary, there can be no doubt that trade cycle theory can only gain full practical importance through exact measurement of the actual course of the phenomena it describes. But before we can examine the question of the true importance of statistics to theory, it must be clearly recognized that the use of statistics can never consist in a deepening of our theoretical insight.

II.
Even as a means of verification, the statistical examination of the cycles has only a very limited value for trade cycle theory. For the latter—as for any other economic theory—there are only two criteria of correctness. First, it must be deduced with unexceptionable logic from the fundamental notions of the theoretical
system; and second, it must explain by a purely deductive method those phenomena with all their peculiarities that we observe in the actual cycles. Such a theory could only be “false” either through an inadequacy in its logic or because the phenomena it explains do not correspond with the observed facts. If, however,
the theory is logically sound, and if it leads to an explanation of the given phenomena as a necessary consequence of these general conditions of economic
activity, then the best that statistical investigation can do is to show that there still remains an unexplained residue of processes. It could never prove that the
determining relationships are of a different character from those maintained by the theory." - Friedrich A. Hayek, Prices and Production.


It's difficult to do the same for anarcho-capitalist ideas because there aren't any good examples of it working successfully in modern times.

1) Embedded in the question is the assumption that libertarian countries don’t exist because they are fantastic creatures, like unicorns. Of course, just because something doesn’t exist yet does not mean it can’t exist.

2) An indefinite number of potential reasons may speak against market anarchy. No matter how many you succeed in falsifying, however, some may still be left, and you can never prove that none are left. In other words, you've shifted the burden of proof and haven't shown we need a state (a term not synonymous with law) in the first place.

Theories that exist in the world of abstract philosophy is how you end up with the deflationary spiral idea - stuff that simply doesn't match observed reality.

"We cannot in practice consider a fact without relating it to other facts, and the relation is a theory. Facts by themselves are dumb; before they will tell us anything we have to arrange them, and the arrangement is a theory. Theory is simply the unavoidable arrangement and interpretation of facts, which gives us generalizations on which we can argue and act, in the place of a mass of disjoined particulars."
(Henry Clay. Economics for the General Reader. New York: Macmillan. 1925. pp.10-11.)

"The 'practical man' habitually acts on theories that he does not consciously realize; and in most cases this means that his theories are fallacious. Using a theory consciously, on the other hand, always results in some new attempt to clear up the interrelations that it assumes, and to bring it into harmony with which theoretical assumptions; that is, it results in the pursuit of theory of its own sake." - Friedrich A. Hayek, Prices and Production.


Rothbard had a lot of very strange ideas about the nature of cartels and monopolies

Really?


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