Writer seeking a little technical help

[tbrown366]

Hi all.

I don't have any bitcoins and don't mine them but am learning about this for a novel I am writing.  The bitcoin mining is not a major part of the story but just a money-making hobby these 6 characters engage in. 

I think it would be more fun if they had a totally improvised setup without buying hardware specifically made for mining.  Is that realistic anymore, if one of them (unscrupulous computer repair guy) had access to computer parts, cpus, graphics cards, etc?  Or do you really have to have hardware specifically made for mining to get any kind of decent rate of return?

I know they could join an existing pool, but I just like the idea of these characters having their own little operation.  They don't live off the proceeds, but they should be able to generate a little income.

Later in the story, thanks to what I'll just call divine intervention, I want them to have a period of time when they get a huge rate of return, well beyond what probability would dictate.  I don't fully understand how the bitcoin process works but I know some of it is luck. If the luck were taken out...if they ALWAYS hit (for lack of a better word), what is the fastest rate the coins could be generated.  Remember, limited hardware but the luck factor is removed in their favor for a period of time. Any element of the process that is due to chance they always hit on the first try.  I realize I don't know enough maybe even to be asking this question correctly but hopefully you get the idea.

It might not make sense to hash this out in this forum.  In that case, I'd love to strike up an email correspondence with someone who could help me along the way make the technical side of this somewhat realistic (until the divine intervention part, of course).

Thanks.

[Foxpup]

I think it would be more fun if they had a totally improvised setup without buying hardware specifically made for mining.  Is that realistic anymore, if one of them (unscrupulous computer repair guy) had access to computer parts, cpus, graphics cards, etc?  Or do you really have to have hardware specifically made for mining to get any kind of decent rate of return?

The latter. Sorry.

Later in the story, thanks to what I'll just call divine intervention, I want them to have a period of time when they get a huge rate of return, well beyond what probability would dictate.  I don't fully understand how the bitcoin process works but I know some of it is luck. If the luck were taken out...if they ALWAYS hit (for lack of a better word), what is the fastest rate the coins could be generated.  Remember, limited hardware but the luck factor is removed in their favor for a period of time. Any element of the process that is due to chance they always hit on the first try.  I realize I don't know enough maybe even to be asking this question correctly but hopefully you get the idea.

BTC25 every 10 minutes. Much faster rates are possible temporarily, but the mining difficulty adjusts periodically to ensure this rate is maintained, on average. Of course, your characters won't achieve anywhere near this, unless your story is about your characters being accused of totally breaking Bitcoin's security and completely destroying the Bitcoin economy overnight, because such a thing happening by chance stretches credulity beyond the extent of the visible universe. "Merely" mining several times what their hardware would normally be capable of is more plausible (especially since it actually happens from time to time).

[zackclark70]

just make the year a back from now and you can say they were using gpus

[Dare]

just make the year a back from now and you can say they were using gpus

Or set your story in 2010-2011 and they could mine using CPUs with huge ROI from GPUs (those weren't used much/at all then, but it /is/ a story).

What's the title?

[webbrowser]

I don't claim to undestand it (at all).  But, if they ALWAYS hit it, i suppose they could find a matching block with every single attempt, earning a reward of 25 BTC (currently) in the process.  

The difficult level gets recalibrated every 21602016 blocks.  But if you were stretching the realms of impossibility, they /could/ still continue finding these matching blocks.  

Mining with GPUs, they could get a hash rate of say 200MH/s.  With only a total of 6929999 blocks getting BTC rewards, they could find them all in a second.  (I don't know, technically, whether there needs to be some network or time delay in order for the discovered blocks to be propagated and difficulty redadjusted).

So after your characters' brief burst of impossible luck, that would leave an astronomical difficulty level for the rest of the network which doesn't have the happy plot-device of lady luck shining on them.  

The network might well not be able to find any blocks for the next 100 years.  Which means no transactions get confirmed.  And the difficulty will only adjust to a reasonable rate after 21602016 more blocks are found.  Disaster!  And ironically, they wouldn't even be able to spend their BTCs.

Maybe if one of your characters were a math genius or had access to NSA math that is able to trivialise BTC's hard problem.

[DannyHamilton]

I don't claim to undestand it (at all).

You appear to understand it better than you think you do.

But, if they ALWAYS hit it, i suppose they could find a matching block with every single attempt, earning a reward of 25 BTC (currently) in the process.  

The difficult level gets recalibrated every 2160 blocks.  But if you were stretching the realms of impossibility, they /could/ still continue finding these matching blocks.  

Mining with GPUs, they could get a hash rate of say 200MH/s.  With only a total of 6929999 blocks getting BTC rewards, they could find them all in a second.  (I don't know, technically, whether there needs to be some network or time delay in order for the discovered blocks to be propagated and difficulty redadjusted).

So after your characters' brief burst of impossible luck, that would leave an astronomical difficulty level for the rest of the network which doesn't have the happy plot-device of lady luck shining on them.  

The network might well not be able to find any blocks for the next 100 years.  Which means no transactions get confirmed.  And the difficulty will only adjust to a reasonable rate after 2160 more blocks are found.  Disaster!  And ironically, they wouldn't even be able to spend their BTCs.

You hit it exactly on the nose.

If they ALWAYS hit . . .

If the luck were taken out...if they ALWAYS hit (for lack of a better word), what is the fastest rate the coins could be generated.  Remember, limited hardware but the luck factor is removed in their favor for a period of time. Any element of the process that is due to chance they always hit on the first try.

Then they would generate every single block as fast as their hardware could build the blocks (probably finishing after a few seconds).  As such, they'd end up with all the remaining bitcoins (a bit over 9.19 million bitcoins).  Then whenever their luck ran out, the bitcoin network would screech to a halt as blocks stopped being solved for years at a time (100's of years at a time?), probably resulting in bitcoins being worthless.

[b!z]

You will need specialized hardware. CPUs and GPUs just won't just it any more.

[Jumpy]

Note that if they were constantly hitting the blocks, they would also have the opportunity to change the transaction history and essentially steal as much BTC as they wanted. This might at least be a temptation that the characters would discuss, and if they went for it, they may just destroy the BTC economy since no one could trust the authenticity of the network.

[termhn]

You could switch it from bitcoins to litecoins, in that case the CPU and especially GPU mining would still be relevant. But yes, if they hit every single possible time, then they would very very quickly get bitcoins. Now, if you're just supposing that they're lucky enough to find the block a few times in a row, then the rate would be 25 bitcoins/10 minutes. That would be (more) plausible because bitcoins are coded specifically so that someone will hit a block about every 10 minutes.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I agree for an Alt-Coin scenario based on current models the Bitcoin tech needs specialized gear