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Author Topic: Bitcoin - Highs and Lows Predictable?  (Read 339 times)
Kprawn
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March 11, 2018, 03:12:03 PM
Merited by d5000 (1)
 #21

It is common knowledge by now that the Bitcoin price takes a bit of a dive after December of every year. I think the reason

for that is quite simple. :

1. A lot of people take some profits during early December to fund their Xmas and New Year expenses. {selling coins}
2. The Chinese version of New Year is set on January 16th, but for one to two weeks Before the Chinese New Years Eve, most suppliers close shop. {less trading are done during this time} The Spring festival last for about 23 days {lunar calendar}
3. Most stock markets even close on New Years Day.
4. Many people are flat broke after the holiday season and will only recover after a few months.  Grin

These are just some of the things that cause a slow down in trading and less volume in the beginning of every year.  Cheesy

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March 11, 2018, 07:10:53 PM
 #22

It is common knowledge by now that the Bitcoin price takes a bit of a dive after December of every year. I think the reason

for that is quite simple. :

1. A lot of people take some profits during early December to fund their Xmas and New Year expenses. {selling coins}
2. The Chinese version of New Year is set on January 16th, but for one to two weeks Before the Chinese New Years Eve, most suppliers close shop. {less trading are done during this time} The Spring festival last for about 23 days {lunar calendar}
3. Most stock markets even close on New Years Day.
4. Many people are flat broke after the holiday season and will only recover after a few months.  Grin

These are just some of the things that cause a slow down in trading and less volume in the beginning of every year.  Cheesy

While I agree that all of these contribute I think the most evident thing is that people have an expectation that prices will fall (because of these reasons and the past trend) and so they sell their coins, this in turn actually leads to the fall in the prices as we have seen.

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March 11, 2018, 07:29:15 PM
 #23

It is common knowledge by now that the Bitcoin price takes a bit of a dive after December of every year.

I wish it had been common knowledge enough for me to have known it. I read and watch a lot to pick up as much as I can, but even though now I see that it makes perfect sense, I didn't catch on at the time. Will definitely be in a better position from now on, learning every day about different trends and how to spot them. Most of the stuff I am learning now is probably stuff that a majority of people on here already know, but I'm happy enough that I am now involved and improving. Onwards and upwards.

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March 11, 2018, 07:32:27 PM
 #24

Yes, there is the possibility to predict what's going to happen. It's a gamble anyway. But, from what I've noticed, it works in a pattern.

Right now we should expect an uptrend.


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March 11, 2018, 07:37:18 PM
 #25

Yeah, I don't think it's quite possible to predict anything, especially over a twelve month period. You can certainly have some prediction power day to day if you keep your finger on the pulse and stay very in tune to what's happening globally surrounding Bitcoin.
Prediction can not be correct always. Although we ca. assume that price of bitcoin will keep surging, we can not describe future of bitcoin. Therefore price hike and price fall is unpredictable.
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March 13, 2018, 03:44:45 AM
 #26

I know finding a range for an investor is the most important to avoid the risks or to judge the worst situation. But as per the historical data. After the market crash btc have loosed it value by the 50 percent. Help your self if you dont believe me. Last time loosing the value from 20k to 10k also signifies that.
Now the question is what should be the range for the certain period.
So as for the next 3 month as per my observation 5k will be the lowest and got 1 percent chance to achieve and 15k will be the highest to achive. 20k was a act played by the syndicated group. People wont sale coins when it is around 5k and gonna hold the coins for long time which will ensure a slow
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March 13, 2018, 03:54:58 AM
 #27

I know finding a range for an investor is the most important to avoid the risks or to judge the worst situation. But as per the historical data. After the market crash btc have loosed it value by the 50 percent. Help your self if you dont believe me. Last time loosing the value from 20k to 10k also signifies that.
Now the question is what should be the range for the certain period.
So as for the next 3 month as per my observation 5k will be the lowest and got 1 percent chance to achieve and 15k will be the highest to achive. 20k was a act played by the syndicated group. People wont sale coins when it is around 5k and gonna hold the coins for long time which will ensure a slow
Yes I agree on that, no one can really predict bitcoin price. Even the most experience person on this feild may never know what would be the exact time of changes of the bitcoin price. We can really know that it is unstable but if we point an exact time on when it will going to happen I think only god knows about that thing. We are need to be more patience on this feild to join the price flow or else we can lose our savings and maybe experience the worst thing.

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March 14, 2018, 12:48:05 PM
 #28

Bitcoin is way too volatile to predict the highs and lows but I think the theory about the price drop after december is plausible because people are broke from the holidays and are trying to recover so not a lot of money goes into the market, but as the year progresses people get more expendable cash and they start buying back in again. Its the only one that seems reasonable enough to me
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March 14, 2018, 12:55:46 PM
 #29

We can not predict high low of btc but hope btc is always rising up
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March 17, 2018, 10:32:49 AM
 #30

I was just looking through the historical prices of Bitcoin on bitcoin.com (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price) and noticed that the high points and low points seem to be (give or take a bit) fairly predictable. The highest price of Bitcoin each year always seems to be towards the end of the year, normally December; and the lowest price always seems to be at the beginning of the year, normally January. Obviously throughout the year there is plenty of market movement up and down, and some periods may over or under run slightly, but as a general pattern, it's an eye opener.

2010 -

Low - No real action on the price until July, when it jumped from virtually nothing to about $0.09. Therefore lowest price January to June.
High - Hit $0.35 in November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 300%

2011 -

Low - Started the year at around $0.30
High - Hit $29 in June

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 10,000%

2012 -

Low - Dropped to around $4 in February
High - Rose to just under $14 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point around 250%

2013 -

Low - Carried on from December at around $13 in January
High - Huge rise up to over $1100 by November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 8,500%

2014 -

Low - Low point right at the end of the year, when it dropped to just over $300
High - Hit it's high right at the beginning of the year in January at around $950 before immediately dropping like a stone

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 200% (pretty irrelevant this one, as the high was in January and the low in December, so would show a loss unless trading throughout the year)

2015 -

Low - Didn't drop too much lower than December 2014, and was at around $190 in January
High - Crept up to $460 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 150%

2016 -

Low - Standard January drop to about $370
High - Steadily moved up, roller coaster style, to almost $1000 in December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 150%

2017 -

Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%

-----------------------------------------------------------

None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.

Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
 

This year will be different, value from December 2017 (20k) is melting steadily and downtrend is obvious. Price can easily slip to 4-5K but i expect rather 7-8k on longer scale. Those with right information can always risk to sell (e.g. today at 8.200$) then buy again at 7800$. big players have right info always so they are not in risk that much.
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March 17, 2018, 01:01:26 PM
 #31

In practice, it turns out that the cost of bitcoins depends heavily on the number of active (and therefore satisfied) users of the system - this is noticeable
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March 17, 2018, 01:34:34 PM
 #32

I was just looking through the historical prices of Bitcoin on bitcoin.com (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price) and noticed that the high points and low points seem to be (give or take a bit) fairly predictable. The highest price of Bitcoin each year always seems to be towards the end of the year, normally December; and the lowest price always seems to be at the beginning of the year, normally January. Obviously throughout the year there is plenty of market movement up and down, and some periods may over or under run slightly, but as a general pattern, it's an eye opener.

2010 -

Low - No real action on the price until July, when it jumped from virtually nothing to about $0.09. Therefore lowest price January to June.
High - Hit $0.35 in November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 300%

2011 -

Low - Started the year at around $0.30
High - Hit $29 in June

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 10,000%

2012 -

Low - Dropped to around $4 in February
High - Rose to just under $14 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point around 250%

2013 -

Low - Carried on from December at around $13 in January
High - Huge rise up to over $1100 by November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 8,500%

2014 -

Low - Low point right at the end of the year, when it dropped to just over $300
High - Hit it's high right at the beginning of the year in January at around $950 before immediately dropping like a stone

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 200% (pretty irrelevant this one, as the high was in January and the low in December, so would show a loss unless trading throughout the year)

2015 -

Low - Didn't drop too much lower than December 2014, and was at around $190 in January
High - Crept up to $460 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 150%

2016 -

Low - Standard January drop to about $370
High - Steadily moved up, roller coaster style, to almost $1000 in December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 150%

2017 -

Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%

-----------------------------------------------------------

None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.

Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
 


Another fact is that Bitcoin is still growing, though we see it drop a bit this early month but it is still going to go up in the later part of this year. So there is nothing to worry about and just keep holding your Bitcoin for bigger gain in the future.

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March 17, 2018, 01:57:20 PM
 #33

Yes you can predict it, based on the bitcoin price history you will find out when the bitcoin price spike.
bitcoin price always spiked on the end of the year indeed. But the thing you must find out is, why ?
Why the price always spiked every year on that time ? If there are some reasons, then we can find out
if the reasons still exist for this year too or not. If it still exist, then bitcoin price will spiked again in this year with a high possibility.

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March 17, 2018, 02:13:36 PM
 #34

Bitcoin price is unpredictable, based on the market news, since March 7, 2018, within 48 hours
the price of bitcoin decrease from 11 thousand dollars to 8,300 dollars, recording a staggering
2,700 dollars dropped in value.

The entire market price followed the bitcoin price trend, declined by 11 percent. It recoverse
and stabilized at about 8,600 dollars yet it goes down again. The current btc per dollar is 8,021 dollars.

In conclusion, the market trend is unpredictable.

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March 17, 2018, 02:16:38 PM
 #35

Your post is a very good one I wish I could give a merit. You summarized bitcoin past prices. It could be seen well that bitcoin always rises up every end of the year.

It wouldbe more nice if there would be a graph showing that pattern to help people trust more in bitcoin or any cryptocurrency.
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March 17, 2018, 02:44:34 PM
 #36

I think bitcoin increase or decrease is very difficult to predict. No one knows when and how much bitcoin will increase. Bitcoin can disappear instantly. Because bitcoin is not managed by any state or government. You can hardly predict the future of bitcoin.
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March 17, 2018, 03:15:43 PM
 #37

Base on OP's, there 3 non-consecutive years that bitcoin exceeded 1,000 percent gains. Also the gap from each gains became longer. So i guess unless there's a major upgrade on the network or a strong mass adoption of bitcoin payments, it's price will not surpass last year's ATH and we might wait for a couple of years.

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March 17, 2018, 03:48:54 PM
 #38

Bitcoin price is unpredictable, based on the market news, since March 7, 2018, within 48 hours
the price of bitcoin decrease from 11 thousand dollars to 8,300 dollars, recording a staggering
2,700 dollars dropped in value.

The entire market price followed the bitcoin price trend, declined by 11 percent. It recoverse
and stabilized at about 8,600 dollars yet it goes down again. The current btc per dollar is 8,021 dollars.

In conclusion, the market trend is unpredictable.


Yes bitcoin price is unpredictable, but I see now bitcoin is more stable not much drop down and increase. But still many investors invest in bitcoin.
Many prediction in this year bitcoin can reach around $ 30,000 end of this year. But actually no one can make sure what will happen in bitcoin future.


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March 17, 2018, 03:53:32 PM
 #39

I think it will increase the bitcoin we just wait for it to rise first and we're too chilly with its price so its time to buy a bitcoin so we can buy or profit bigger

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March 17, 2018, 10:05:07 PM
 #40

Bitcoin price is unpredictable but with the previous experience I notice that the price always appreciate more towards the end of the year but let keep our fingers across to see how it goes.

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