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Author Topic: Bitcoin - Highs and Lows Predictable?  (Read 363 times)
cryptothief
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March 10, 2018, 05:22:25 PM
Last edit: March 10, 2018, 05:41:51 PM by cryptothief
Merited by d5000 (1)
 #1

I was just looking through the historical prices of Bitcoin on bitcoin.com (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price) and noticed that the high points and low points seem to be (give or take a bit) fairly predictable. The highest price of Bitcoin each year always seems to be towards the end of the year, normally December; and the lowest price always seems to be at the beginning of the year, normally January. Obviously throughout the year there is plenty of market movement up and down, and some periods may over or under run slightly, but as a general pattern, it's an eye opener.

2010 -

Low - No real action on the price until July, when it jumped from virtually nothing to about $0.09. Therefore lowest price January to June.
High - Hit $0.35 in November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 300%

2011 -

Low - Started the year at around $0.30
High - Hit $29 in June

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 10,000%

2012 -

Low - Dropped to around $4 in February
High - Rose to just under $14 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point around 250%

2013 -

Low - Carried on from December at around $13 in January
High - Huge rise up to over $1100 by November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 8,500%

2014 -

Low - Low point right at the end of the year, when it dropped to just over $300
High - Hit it's high right at the beginning of the year in January at around $950 before immediately dropping like a stone

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 200% (pretty irrelevant this one, as the high was in January and the low in December, so would show a loss unless trading throughout the year)

2015 -

Low - Didn't drop too much lower than December 2014, and was at around $190 in January
High - Crept up to $460 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 150%

2016 -

Low - Standard January drop to about $370
High - Steadily moved up, roller coaster style, to almost $1000 in December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 150%

2017 -

Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%

-----------------------------------------------------------

None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.

Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
 

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TheGodFather
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March 10, 2018, 05:26:51 PM
 #2

I was just looking through the historical prices of Bitcoin on bitcoin.com (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price) and noticed that the high points and low points seem to be (give or take a bit) fairly predictable. The highest price of Bitcoin each year always seems to be towards the end of the year, normally December; and the lowest price always seems to be at the beginning of the year, normally January. Obviously throughout the year there is plenty of market movement up and down, and some periods may over or under run slightly, but as a general pattern, it's an eye opener.

2010 -

Low - No real action on the price until July, when it jumped from virtually nothing to about $0.09. Therefore lowest price January to June.
High - Hit $0.35 in November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 300%

2011 -

Low - Started the year at around $0.30
High - Hit $29 in June

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 10,000%

2012 -

Low - Dropped to around $4 in February
High - Rose to just under $14 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point around 250%

2013 -

Low - Carried on from December at around $13 in January
High - Huge rise up to over $1100 by November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 8,500%

2014 -

Low - Low point right at the end of the year, when it dropped to just over $300
High - Hit it's high right at the beginning of the year in January at around $950 before immediately dropping like a stone

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 200%

2015 -

Low - Didn't drop too much lower than December 2014, and was at around $190 in January
High - Crept up to $460 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 150%

2016 -

Low - Standard January drop to about $370
High - Steadily moved up, roller coaster style, to almost $1000 in December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 150%

2017 -

Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%

-----------------------------------------------------------

None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.

Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
 


No, I don’t think it is ever possible to predict cryptocurrency, even the people in wall street with all their pedigree and their standing and their experience cannot even state for sure what bitcoin will be in the future. They cannot even correctly predict their stock market how much more the bitcoin. That’s why we can only rely on this past information as a basis, some sort of guideline to have an understanding before we can even make a major decision and to me that’s only what we can do







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epidose
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March 10, 2018, 05:30:01 PM
 #3

Yeah, I don't think it's quite possible to predict anything, especially over a twelve month period. You can certainly have some prediction power day to day if you keep your finger on the pulse and stay very in tune to what's happening globally surrounding Bitcoin.
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March 10, 2018, 05:30:32 PM
 #4

That's why prediction is hard this day because of the sudden drop and slowly increase of the bitcoin price, that is the reason why traders is earning and losing at the same time.
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March 10, 2018, 05:35:30 PM
 #5

That's why prediction is hard this day because of the sudden drop and slowly increase of the bitcoin price, that is the reason why traders is earning and losing at the same time.
Having the coins earned or purchase doesn't matter. The price of Bitcoin and altcoins can go up in value if there is people holding the coins.

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March 10, 2018, 06:41:38 PM
 #6

There's been a clear trend in past years for a big rise year end and a fall in the new year but that does not mean that it will happen again. Only so much can be concluded from the past and the future is never written. Also just because you know that the price is going to dip does not mean you can pick accurately when it's near the top and when it's near the bottom. Even if someone told you that 'in the next month bitcoin will drop 30%' you still might end up making a loss.

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March 10, 2018, 06:49:26 PM
 #7

Your showing past years from bitcoin beginning is showing just bitcoin intercourse, it's cryptocurrencies natural activity I think, and no one can guess right about cryptocurrencies future proper activities.
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March 10, 2018, 06:54:34 PM
 #8

Not really predictable, but you can use these patterns as guidelines. Patterns can direct the flow of the market, but the force of the news I can say can really stagger the market.
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March 10, 2018, 06:58:47 PM
 #9

I do not believe anyone can predict the value of bitcoin. If they really anticipate bitcoin value they have become wealthy with their speculation. Its value depends on many investors around the world. Not dominated by anyone

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March 10, 2018, 07:00:28 PM
 #10

Thats a very good analysis bro and well known fact as well since many years. Yes, bitcoin always dumps itself in the prices when it is month of January. This is thought to be because of new year where people sell most of their bitcoin for cash and thus enjoy the new year welcoming parties. This is obvious case though! Later on when people start getting their taxes filed then they start with new investments later on. The is why the bitcoin starts going upwards and this creates feeling of better bitcoin and thus more people jump into it through the year. The end result of this event? Spiked prices of the bitcoin at the end of year. So yeah your analysis is completely true and also worth studying it for this years prediction too.

   

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March 10, 2018, 07:08:53 PM
 #11

Not really predictable, but you can use these patterns as guidelines. Patterns can direct the flow of the market, but the force of the news I can say can really stagger the market.
They can only be predictable if there is a test net that only you own. Having that would not make any difference on Bitcoins network though.

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March 10, 2018, 07:17:42 PM
 #12

I was just looking through the historical prices of Bitcoin on bitcoin.com (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price) and noticed that the high points and low points seem to be (give or take a bit) fairly predictable. The highest price of Bitcoin each year always seems to be towards the end of the year, normally December; and the lowest price always seems to be at the beginning of the year, normally January. Obviously throughout the year there is plenty of market movement up and down, and some periods may over or under run slightly, but as a general pattern, it's an eye opener.


Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%

-----------------------------------------------------------

None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.

Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
 


No, I don’t think it is ever possible to predict cryptocurrency, even the people in wall street with all their pedigree and their standing and their experience cannot even state for sure what bitcoin will be in the future. They cannot even correctly predict their stock market how much more the bitcoin. That’s why we can only rely on this past information as a basis, some sort of guideline to have an understanding before we can even make a major decision and to me that’s only what we can do
Some very well respected Crypto people i follow says that bitcoin bottom will be a "W" bottom not just a "V" bottom at 6000.  So they expect this current dip to get near the 6000 low to complete the "W" bottom before it goes back on its bull run. And "W" bottoms make for much stronger bull rallies than just "V" bottoms.  In addition, alot of institutional investment money will be coming into crypto in May which will obviously make the over all crypto market rise (especially the large caps).  Im not expecting just a rise, Im expecting a very strong run to the all time highs this summer.  This is the opinion of very respected crypto people, and I believe it and will be investing accordingly.  good luck to you
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March 10, 2018, 07:20:17 PM
 #13

I think bitcoin prices are low and growth is not so much as forecaster because many business men are losing their capital. Again, those who understand the predictions can increase bitcoin, they are benefiting from the business. So bitcoin prices should be stable.
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March 10, 2018, 07:28:43 PM
 #14

This gives an idea about the prices from the past, but  that's no guarantee for the future. When Bitcoin hit 20K, everyone's attention was drawn to cryptocurrencies. That's when banks and governmentsbegan to realise something big was going on. They got scared bank accounts would run empty and state issued tender would be in danger because of cryptocurrencies. Now cryptocurrencies will face worldwide regulations, that means the prices will not go to the moon anymore.

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March 10, 2018, 07:50:41 PM
 #15

I'm waiting for lightning network. After that price could run as fast as can
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March 10, 2018, 08:01:32 PM
 #16

Although crypto prices are not easy to predict, but it is a fun fact to read. Thank you for putting the information together. From OP, it show that bitcoin price rise at least 150%, which is quite good for an investment.

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crutu
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March 10, 2018, 08:14:44 PM
 #17

I was just looking through the historical prices of Bitcoin on bitcoin.com (https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price) and noticed that the high points and low points seem to be (give or take a bit) fairly predictable. The highest price of Bitcoin each year always seems to be towards the end of the year, normally December; and the lowest price always seems to be at the beginning of the year, normally January. Obviously throughout the year there is plenty of market movement up and down, and some periods may over or under run slightly, but as a general pattern, it's an eye opener.

2010 -

Low - No real action on the price until July, when it jumped from virtually nothing to about $0.09. Therefore lowest price January to June.
High - Hit $0.35 in November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 300%

2011 -

Low - Started the year at around $0.30
High - Hit $29 in June

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 10,000%

2012 -

Low - Dropped to around $4 in February
High - Rose to just under $14 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point around 250%

2013 -

Low - Carried on from December at around $13 in January
High - Huge rise up to over $1100 by November

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 8,500%

2014 -

Low - Low point right at the end of the year, when it dropped to just over $300
High - Hit it's high right at the beginning of the year in January at around $950 before immediately dropping like a stone

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 200% (pretty irrelevant this one, as the high was in January and the low in December, so would show a loss unless trading throughout the year)

2015 -

Low - Didn't drop too much lower than December 2014, and was at around $190 in January
High - Crept up to $460 by December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 150%

2016 -

Low - Standard January drop to about $370
High - Steadily moved up, roller coaster style, to almost $1000 in December

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point just over 150%

2017 -

Low - Just under $800 in January
High - Around $20,000 in December before...

Percentage rise from lowest to highest point almost 2500%

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None of this really means anything I guess, but interesting nonetheless.

Another random fact, August 2013 was the last time you could buy a Bitcoin for less than $100. And hopefully that won't be changing anytime soon.
 

it is a fact that bitcoin price movements like roller coasters sometimes rise very high even when there is a decrease to the lowest point. I acknowledge the bitcoin value history to the low point is in 2013, but for the big players of 2013 it is the most precious year because they can buy bitcoin in considerable amounts.

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March 10, 2018, 11:13:57 PM
 #18

Bitcoin price is unpredictable, any wise trader or investor will never trust such predictions.
I will not buy Bitcoin in January and wait the whole year hoping it will have the highest price by December, any thing can happen in the meanwhile.
There are faster and safer ways to make profit.

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March 10, 2018, 11:25:09 PM
 #19

Hardly predictable anybody would say, if that were the case then we wouldn't all be running around makings predictions and have feelings of FOMO. The markets would be boring, and then it wouldn't be nearly as fun as it is now. I for one enjoy the unpredictability and believe it is the reason the markets exist as they do.

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March 11, 2018, 02:16:04 PM
 #20

Yeah, the question mark at the end of the title was important. I realise that nothing in the markets can be predicted 100%, otherwise the markets wouldn't exist. But just interested to see the overall pattern of Bitcoin's price over the last few years. I know most traders do regular analysis of all patterns and use much more complicated indicators to pick out buy and sell points on a daily basis. Even after doing all of that, it is still unpredictable, but it does give you a headstart against those that are buying completely blind.

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