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Author Topic: The breakout is fake, BTC price will dip again.  (Read 186 times)
AICoin_Official
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March 12, 2018, 01:27:43 PM
 #1

Last night, BTC started climbing with expanding volumes around 19:30 and regained the control over MA 5, which was almost the same as what I’d stated in my last analysis. However, the weak momentum indicated that it’s a normal rally. Until now, we haven’t got enough information to confirm whether price will effectively remain above MA 5 or not, which leads us to a same conclusion that the breakout is fake.

It seems price holds greater chances to repeat the move pattern, before BTC moves above $10,000 effectively, I believe the downtrend will remain intact, when it does, it will turn oscillating.

Original by Kuang Ren, translated and posted by AICoin Jami.

Check the full version here: https://www.aicoin.net.cn/article/16835.html

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March 12, 2018, 02:27:28 PM
 #2

The next futures expiration is Wednesday March 14th:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/03/11/bitcoins-next-futures-expiration-is-this-wednesday/#591965565ef9

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The Cboe currently has four monthly Bitcoin contracts available. The closest one expires this Wednesday, and just over the past week it traded between $8,380 at its low point to $11,710 at its high, a 28.4% range. One news item that created this volatility was the SEC announcing that cryptocurrency trading platforms needed to register with it.

Bitcoin’s price on the Cboe closed at $9,257 on Friday. Since there is no physical aspect to Bitcoin all of its contracts will need to be closed before 2:45 pm on Wednesday or settled if the investor does not buy or sell their position. While there are many factors that drive Bitcoin’s price there may be some added volatility this week , and especially on Wednesday as the contract expires.

Some investors will try to close their contracts early if the price moves in their favour.

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March 12, 2018, 03:13:02 PM
 #3

I tend to go with you on this one as I believe that there is nothing to ride bitcoin price back.
As regulators enter the market, making it much harder to trade bitcoins, or even just to take out profits, people will run away and may buy BTC only through etf.
The only cryptocurrencies to benefit from this would be the private crypto currencies, especially monero, as the regulators enter the market people will search for untraceable coins.

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March 12, 2018, 04:16:56 PM
 #4

I tend to go with you on this one as I believe that there is nothing to ride bitcoin price back.
As regulators enter the market, making it much harder to trade bitcoins, or even just to take out profits, people will run away and may buy BTC only through etf.
The only cryptocurrencies to benefit from this would be the private crypto currencies, especially monero, as the regulators enter the market people will search for untraceable coins.


It is irrelevant. If your thesis is correct, then Monero will dump too. It matters not if Monero is a private currency, if you are saying that people is going to stop buying because of regulations, then what matters is KYC, and Monero, and any other crypto listed in a exchange which is subjected to KYC laws, would suffer the drop in volume.

But I think that is irrelevant. The demand for Bitcoin is a permanent one, the FUD is the temporal factor, long term we are going up. I believe specially once more people catch up to Lightning Network being a success, we'll see a golden era of payments and a new rise to ATH will begin, but the store of value demand is always there nontheless.

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March 12, 2018, 04:27:30 PM
 #5

But I think that is irrelevant. The demand for Bitcoin is a permanent one, the FUD is the temporal factor, long term we are going up. I believe specially once more people catch up to Lightning Network being a success, we'll see a golden era of payments and a new rise to ATH will begin, but the store of value demand is always there nontheless.
I have the same view on this situation. FUD only has a temporary effect on Bitcoin price, the current downtrend is not even a significant one if we compare it to some others. And nonetheless it's very well possible that the uptrend continues because the adopters are possibly not giving too much attention to the FUD.
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March 12, 2018, 04:37:49 PM
 #6

But I think that is irrelevant. The demand for Bitcoin is a permanent one, the FUD is the temporal factor, long term we are going up. I believe specially once more people catch up to Lightning Network being a success, we'll see a golden era of payments and a new rise to ATH will begin, but the store of value demand is always there nontheless.
I have the same view on this situation. FUD only has a temporary effect on Bitcoin price, the current downtrend is not even a significant one if we compare it to some others. And nonetheless it's very well possible that the uptrend continues because the adopters are possibly not giving too much attention to the FUD.

there is still a lot of FUD around and that is preventing the rise from happening but i still wouldn't agree with the title OP chose, there never was a breakout to be fake or real! price is still in the same price range and it is stuck.
although despite all the FUD price is holding up nicely. and i say if it stays in $9k range for the next 24 hours we can expect testing of $12k for the third time, this week.

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March 12, 2018, 04:38:53 PM
 #7

Fake or not!!I don't know!!But,I think this phase is good for us.
Because,some has bought some bitcoin in last dip.So,at least this phase was good for them to sell.But,I think it's not fake at all.Bitcoin has given it's last dip,and it will take time to do the next dip.My opinion. But your logic wasn't bad at all.

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March 12, 2018, 05:53:50 PM
 #8

In two or three days it seems like we'll see the bitcoin value movement after the Trustee crime was uncovered a few days ago. However as small FUDs are still circulating around us I think the movement is a bit hampered maybe we need May or June to get a high value increase.

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March 12, 2018, 06:06:13 PM
 #9

I think we're in dull chop for a period of time myself. It'll be neither here nor there. It might pop down sub 6-7k but it's just as likely to break five figures again and nothing will really have changed. I suppose to some people that would be alarming. I'm beyond it myself.

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March 12, 2018, 06:12:07 PM
 #10

We're just going to end this bubble like the 2013 one. It doesn't need FUD. The amount of dumb money in this run, just like the 2013 one, is larger than you think. Everyone around me suddenly talks of BTC this year. It's all dumb money.
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March 12, 2018, 06:14:52 PM
 #11

We're just going to end this bubble like the 2013 one. It doesn't need FUD. The amount of dumb money in this run, just like the 2013 one, is larger than you think. Everyone around me suddenly talks of BTC this year. It's all dumb money.

Whether we get another 2014/15 is the thing everyone wants to know.

But yes, the money was possibly even more stupid this time around compared to last time. How XRP could've got to over $3 is staggering, let alone the whitepaper coins like Tron.

I hope by the time the next bubble comes along there'll be some actual justification for it.

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March 12, 2018, 06:43:08 PM
 #12

The price since hitting 6k has been fairly stuck between 9k and 12k for the most part and I don't see that changing any time soon. It'll pump for a few days to 12k then dip for a few days back down and that pattern is likely to repeat until there is something significant enough to break the support or resistance at either end.

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March 12, 2018, 06:58:21 PM
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What's the point of constantly trying to wrongly 'predict' the market? Release one analysis per week, and focus on how you think the market will behave from that point. It's obvious that the market isn't going anywhere any time soon, so it's pretty pointless to say that we're up for an increase one day, and refute everything the other day. It's longer term consolidation between an obvious range that will likely remain for a couple of more weeks. Nothing hints at an increase, and nothing even justifies an increase -- we have to accept that we'll keep seeing these ping pong movement over and under the $10,000 level.
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March 12, 2018, 08:00:03 PM
 #14

Yes, probably there might be another dips and  probably might be longer than the ones who have been seeing. But yet, we are quite unsure when the next one will be and how much it the price will be. Dont be surprise if the next dip might hit below 5k; cause the Cryptocurrency market is quite unpredictable. And I seriously think that we should take a break in this constant prediction of bitcoin market price. Its very confusing.
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March 12, 2018, 08:56:31 PM
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We're just going to end this bubble like the 2013 one. It doesn't need FUD. The amount of dumb money in this run, just like the 2013 one, is larger than you think. Everyone around me suddenly talks of BTC this year. It's all dumb money.

Whether we get another 2014/15 is the thing everyone wants to know.

But yes, the money was possibly even more stupid this time around compared to last time. How XRP could've got to over $3 is staggering, let alone the whitepaper coins like Tron.

I hope by the time the next bubble comes along there'll be some actual justification for it.

nah, that's just not how it works. the bubbles are massive layers of hype (essentially gartner hype cycles) build on top of slowly uptrending utility. that leaves lots of room for dumb money speculation and it happens every cycle because of rational human reaction to the market cycle. people want the next big thing, and they want to get rich---the bitcoin/altcoin bubbles feed into those dreams well. the masses aren't thinking, "oh, this bitcoin technology is really empowering and revolutionary. let's end trust in finance and start using sound money!" they're just looking for the next big thing and they'll bail when the hype is over. it's not a matter of "good tech" or "bad tech" or scams or real utility or any of that.

that will be true until the "s-curve" has completed and adoption has plateaued. by then, mainstream adoption has already occurred and there isn't much upside left from a speculative standpoint. and that's when you'll see "justified" valuations for bitcoins and shitcoins alike.

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March 12, 2018, 09:07:12 PM
 #16

The price since hitting 6k has been fairly stuck between 9k and 12k for the most part and I don't see that changing any time soon. It'll pump for a few days to 12k then dip for a few days back down and that pattern is likely to repeat until there is something significant enough to break the support or resistance at either end.
Yes, i do feel like it does need something like that to break its resistance hence a fork maybe or a good news for a week and i'm sure it will go change the way it used to be. People will follow if they saw where the price is heading and that's what most people are waiting for, to ride the bandwagon.

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March 12, 2018, 09:56:20 PM
 #17

Personality, I'm in from early enough that I'm comfortable for it to go to around $1,000 at the bottom of a bear market.

At this point it definitely looks like we are transitioning into a bear market, because we've just come out of a huge overdramatic bull market and there's been a downtrend for a couple of months now. 

If we're going into a bear market, I doubt it really matters that there are breakouts to people other than day traders.  I'll be sitting back and watching the exact amount of profit I could have fluctuate.
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March 12, 2018, 10:53:01 PM
 #18

The last contracts close of bitcoin futures caused a manipulation that sent the price downward. If bitcoin futures are closing again, then I believe they'll try to manipulate the price lower yet again.

If anything, there's a high likelihood the price will continue to dip until the end of the day on the 14th, when they'll let the price rise again.

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March 12, 2018, 11:03:34 PM
 #19

Personality, I'm in from early enough that I'm comfortable for it to go to around $1,000 at the bottom of a bear market.

At this point it definitely looks like we are transitioning into a bear market, because we've just come out of a huge overdramatic bull market and there's been a downtrend for a couple of months now. 

If we're going into a bear market, I doubt it really matters that there are breakouts to people other than day traders.  I'll be sitting back and watching the exact amount of profit I could have fluctuate.
Bear market it is but isn't it too deep to go through $1,000? it does required something to bring down the trend of resistance. Besides prices are playing at around $8k to $10k and the price do fluctuate much more on the dip rather than on growing. It's a bit hard for day traders to adjust to this volatility this days... One must have to say this again to all the hodlers out there, "HODL". lol
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March 13, 2018, 01:33:33 AM
 #20

I dont care. I dont give a fuck.

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