Mass Adoption of BTC

[histman]

I am curious to see what people think will be the "break out" use for BTC that will lead to its mass adoption. Despite all the publicity BTC is still an abstract novelty to the general public much like amazon.com and eBay were in 1995.  So, what will be the first true use on a popular scale?

I, for one, think it will be for money transfer.  BTC is a big improvement over the current system of sending money, especially for migrant workers and the working class "unbanked."  Buying things and preserving wealth seems like a much tougher sell to the average Joe who is perfectly comfortable with good old fashioned dollars.

[imrer]

What is your opinion on it? How do you think that bitcoin economy is working now?

[theonewhowaskazu]

My opinion:

First, BTC will be a investment vehicle. The inflationary dollar will cause individuals with many assets to diversify some of that into BTC due to a rapidly declining dollar value, causing BTC to go up in value at a relatively constant pace, albeit slower than the current rate of growth.

Sooner or later a big lender will figure out that BTC is a non-inflationary currency and, to effectively charge higher interest, they and will start offering online consumer BTC loans detached from traditional banking. This will cause a short term depression in price as the artificial supply created by the lending goes onto the market. "Normal" BTCers like me and other people here will promptly buy up a ton of BTC, and the borrowers will be in a position like a short-squeeze. This will guarantee their interest in obtaining BTC just to pay off their debts. They'll eventually figure out that they can get BTC cheaper if they're paid directly in it, so some will pressure employers to do just that.

Next, the BTC loans will cause lots of BTC to be spent in that period of time, bringing in huge revenue to BTC businesses. As these businesses grow, they'll prove that BTC can be a profitable model and this will encourage other business to switch over.

Thus, employers will both accept, and eventually pay out, BTC, thus making it a legitimate currency. This final bump is what will make the price really rocket.

So I don't think it will be any one of the things listed in the poll, but rather a merging focusing on the various advantages of BTC.

[Shallow]

Bitcoin will remain a store of wealth for people and speculators for the foreseeable future. I think it might be used for microtransactions down the track.

[mogrith]

Wiring money to mexico is a big business. Bitcoin alone won't change that. they need a simple to use system. with bitcoin as the backend.

Jose in US goes to ATM machine puts in dollars and activities 2 cards. He sends one to Mama in mexico. She can take out pesos from ATM in her local store. Now he can go to any of right type of ATM put in more dollars for mama.

Instead of cards being Visa Amex debit cards they are keys to a cloud wallet. the activation gives them access to the one account.

[odolvlobo]

Remember the dot com bubble? People bought internet stocks, not because the companies did anything, but because they thought that the prices would keep going up. Remember the housing bubble? Same story ...

If mass adoption of Bitcoin is primarily for investment, the results will be terrible. Don't be stupid. This is what causes bubbles. If everyone buys bitcoins only because they think the price will go up, then we will see yet another bubble. We've already seen two bitcoin bubbles, and the only thing that kept Bitcoin alive in the aftermath is its utility and its potential utility.

In order for Bitcoin to have a sustainable value, it has to have utility. Bitcoin is a payment system with its own currency. Never lose sight of that or you will lose everything.

[BitChick]

Remember the dot com bubble? People bought internet stocks, not because the companies did anything, but because they thought that the prices would keep going up. Remember the housing bubble? Same story ...

If mass adoption of Bitcoin is primarily for investment, the results will be terrible. Don't be stupid. This is what causes bubbles. If everyone buys bitcoins only because they think the price will go up, then we will see yet another bubble. We've already seen two bitcoin bubbles, and the only thing that kept Bitcoin alive in the aftermath is its utility and its potential utility.

In order for Bitcoin to have a sustainable value, it has to have utility. Bitcoin is a payment system with its own currency. Never lose sight of that or you will lose everything.

Utility will come in time.  I think we are still so early on in this that it's main use at this point is for speculation.  It will be a volatile ride for a while until it stabilizes down the road.  The price will be much higher at that point though.  For those that are able to take advantage of the ups and downs, or just hold on for the bumpy ride, there will come a day when Bitcoin is used for many things but it will be a long painful process in the meantime.

[Erdogan]

My opinion:

First, BTC will be a investment vehicle. The inflationary dollar will cause individuals with many assets to diversify some of that into BTC due to a rapidly declining dollar value, causing BTC to go up in value at a relatively constant pace, albeit slower than the current rate of growth.

Sooner or later a big lender will figure out that BTC is a non-inflationary currency and, to effectively charge higher interest, they and will start offering online consumer BTC loans detached from traditional banking. This will cause a short term depression in price as the artificial supply created by the lending goes onto the market. "Normal" BTCers like me and other people here will promptly buy up a ton of BTC, and the borrowers will be in a position like a short-squeeze. This will guarantee their interest in obtaining BTC just to pay off their debts. They'll eventually figure out that they can get BTC cheaper if they're paid directly in it, so some will pressure employers to do just that.

Next, the BTC loans will cause lots of BTC to be spent in that period of time, bringing in huge revenue to BTC businesses. As these businesses grow, they'll prove that BTC can be a profitable model and this will encourage other business to switch over.

Thus, employers will both accept, and eventually pay out, BTC, thus making it a legitimate currency. This final bump is what will make the price really rocket.

So I don't think it will be any one of the things listed in the poll, but rather a merging focusing on the various advantages of BTC.

Good thinking. Of course, the borrowing in BTC might be of lower magnitude than current fiat borrowing for two reasons: The borrower can not profit from inflation, and the banks can not get hold of cheap BTC from the Fed.

[Erdogan]

Remember the dot com bubble? People bought internet stocks, not because the companies did anything, but because they thought that the prices would keep going up. Remember the housing bubble? Same story ...

If mass adoption of Bitcoin is primarily for investment, the results will be terrible. Don't be stupid. This is what causes bubbles. If everyone buys bitcoins only because they think the price will go up, then we will see yet another bubble. We've already seen two bitcoin bubbles, and the only thing that kept Bitcoin alive in the aftermath is its utility and its potential utility.

In order for Bitcoin to have a sustainable value, it has to have utility. Bitcoin is a payment system with its own currency. Never lose sight of that or you will lose everything.

It is bubbly, but the effect of speculation (investment, entrepreneurship) is taking the price up before its natural price increase. Only if the speculators are wrong, will we have a price hike and then a fallback. Unfortunately it is not possible to know what the natural value is now, neither is it possible to know in advance what the long term stable value will be.

[Hawker]

Remember the dot com bubble? People bought internet stocks, not because the companies did anything, but because they thought that the prices would keep going up. Remember the housing bubble? Same story ...

If mass adoption of Bitcoin is primarily for investment, the results will be terrible. Don't be stupid. This is what causes bubbles. If everyone buys bitcoins only because they think the price will go up, then we will see yet another bubble. We've already seen two bitcoin bubbles, and the only thing that kept Bitcoin alive in the aftermath is its utility and its potential utility.

In order for Bitcoin to have a sustainable value, it has to have utility. Bitcoin is a payment system with its own currency. Never lose sight of that or you will lose everything.

It is bubbly, but the effect of speculation (investment, entrepreneurship) is taking the price up before its natural price increase. Only if the speculators are wrong, will we have a price hike and then a fallback. Unfortunately it is not possible to know what the natural value is now, neither is it possible to know in advance what the long term stable value will be.

Its possible to wonder if some day a legitimate use for Bitcoin is found. Perhaps the legitimate use only means the bitcoin economy gains the value of a small country like Malta. If that happens, the maximum of 21 million bitcoins means that each bitcoin is worth over $100k. 

If a legitimate use for Bitcoin is never found, then we are left with Bitcoin as a currency for people doing things they want kept from the state.  As more and more people understand the implications of the Wikileaks and Snowden materials, we can expect bitcoin to go well over $1000 in a year or two.

That's the way I see it anyway.  I sold some at $119.99 to buy a car a few months back and have been wondering if I made a terrible mistake.

[theonewhowaskazu]

My opinion:

First, BTC will be a investment vehicle. The inflationary dollar will cause individuals with many assets to diversify some of that into BTC due to a rapidly declining dollar value, causing BTC to go up in value at a relatively constant pace, albeit slower than the current rate of growth.

Sooner or later a big lender will figure out that BTC is a non-inflationary currency and, to effectively charge higher interest, they and will start offering online consumer BTC loans detached from traditional banking. This will cause a short term depression in price as the artificial supply created by the lending goes onto the market. "Normal" BTCers like me and other people here will promptly buy up a ton of BTC, and the borrowers will be in a position like a short-squeeze. This will guarantee their interest in obtaining BTC just to pay off their debts. They'll eventually figure out that they can get BTC cheaper if they're paid directly in it, so some will pressure employers to do just that.

Next, the BTC loans will cause lots of BTC to be spent in that period of time, bringing in huge revenue to BTC businesses. As these businesses grow, they'll prove that BTC can be a profitable model and this will encourage other business to switch over.

Thus, employers will both accept, and eventually pay out, BTC, thus making it a legitimate currency. This final bump is what will make the price really rocket.

So I don't think it will be any one of the things listed in the poll, but rather a merging focusing on the various advantages of BTC.

Good thinking. Of course, the borrowing in BTC might be of lower magnitude than current fiat borrowing for two reasons: The borrower can not profit from inflation, and the banks can not get hold of cheap BTC from the Fed.

Borrowers seldom think of inflation when borrowing, while lenders do. That's because lenders generally pay much more attention to the profitability of their business than their customers. As such, BTC is the natural currency to lend in, if you can get a hold of it.

Second, I suspect that the borrower will likely either already have a ton of BTC ready to lend, or gather the support of people with lots of BTC. Imagine something like Just-Dice. Just-Dice's business is dubious at best and yet it has over 60k BTC invested. Imagine if a similar pool was created after BTC had increased in price to $250. That's over $15 million dollars worth of BTC to lend. That's plenty for such a lender to make consumer loans.

[histman]

For something to really have mass appeal it has to be better than something that already exists.  The Model T was a hit not because it was a good car, but because it was better than owning a horse.  In other words, it has to be disruptive.  This is also why electric cars have yet to disrupt internal combustion cars.  The mass of people don't see electric as better than gas.  Electric vehicles are toys of the rich, and "novelty" vehicles. 

Why did VCRs take off?  Because watching porn at home was better than going to a theater.  Just ask Pee Wee Herman.

Thus, we need to think of what industry bitcoin will disrupt.  What would a critical mass of people see bitcoin as "better" than?  We bitcoiners understand the technology, and certainly see how BTC is better in lots of ways.  Now, go try and talk your co-workers into moving all their investments into BTC.  Try and explain to Average Joe why paying for something in BTC is better than buying the exact same thing with dollars.  The current system works fine for them, from their perspective. How is BTC better?

Give Jose the field worker a cheaper, easier way to send his money home, and all of the sudden we have huge numbers using BTC.  He doesn't understand the tech, but that doesn't matter.  It works for him.  Bear in mind that many, many more South Asians (mostly from India) send money home than Latin Americans.  Also, 80% of Africa is "unbanked."

[Rival]

My wife has an online antique business, and sells through a variety of outlets including ebay. I showed her what coinbase was doing with their system including bitdazzle. She was blown away. Her fees drop so significantly that if is almost as if she had been walking uphill to the well to get some water with two anvils strapped to her back, and now she can just drop the anvils and run up the hill.

I am not trying to shill for coinbase or bitdazzle, and I don't know how they will play out in the future. But I do think that if businesses adopt a similar model and it actually works as advertised that those who do not adopt will wither and die. This is a real-world example where bitcoins as a concept meets bitcoins as an application and the results can be staggering. For ecommerce it will be adopt or perish.

If you stuck with filecabinets and typewriters you went bankrupt in the 1980's.

If you decided your business did not need a website you went bankrupt in the 1990's.

If you ignore bitcoins and stay with paypal and credit cards you will go bankrupt by 2015. You will not be able to compete with those who adapt and adopt. They will take all of your business because of the direct benefit to their bottom line. They will be able to offer lower prices and strangle you.

[BitChick]

My wife has an online antique business, and sells through a variety of outlets including ebay. I showed her what coinbase was doing with their system including bitdazzle. She was blown away. Her fees drop so significantly that if is almost as if she had been walking uphill to the well to get some water with two anvils strapped to her back, and now she can just drop the anvils and run up the hill.

I am not trying to shill for coinbase or bitdazzle, and I don't know how they will play out in the future. But I do think that if businesses adopt a similar model and it actually works as advertised that those who do not adopt will wither and die. This is a real-world example where bitcoins as a concept meets bitcoins as an application and the results can be staggering. For ecommerce it will be adopt or perish.

If you stuck with filecabinets and typewriters you went bankrupt in the 1980's.

If you decided your business did not need a website you went bankrupt in the 1990's.

If you ignore bitcoins and stay with paypal and credit cards you will go bankrupt by 2015. You will not be able to compete with those who adapt and adopt. They will take all of your business because of the direct benefit to their bottom line. They will be able to offer lower prices and strangle you.

Love this post!  It is so true.  I agree that companies that adopt Bitcoin they will benefit greatly.  There will be some that do not want to change but they will either have to give in at some point or go out of business.

By 2015? That I am not so sure of but it could happen faster than we expect.

[histman]

So I suppose that you think people buying things will be the first mass adoption rather than people remitting money?

[theonewhowaskazu]

For something to really have mass appeal it has to be better than something that already exists.  The Model T was a hit not because it was a good car, but because it was better than owning a horse.  In other words, it has to be disruptive.  This is also why electric cars have yet to disrupt internal combustion cars.  The mass of people don't see electric as better than gas.  Electric vehicles are toys of the rich, and "novelty" vehicles. 

Why did VCRs take off?  Because watching porn at home was better than going to a theater.  Just ask Pee Wee Herman.

Thus, we need to think of what industry bitcoin will disrupt.  What would a critical mass of people see bitcoin as "better" than?  We bitcoiners understand the technology, and certainly see how BTC is better in lots of ways.  Now, go try and talk your co-workers into moving all their investments into BTC.  Try and explain to Average Joe why paying for something in BTC is better than buying the exact same thing with dollars.  The current system works fine for them, from their perspective. How is BTC better?

Give Jose the field worker a cheaper, easier way to send his money home, and all of the sudden we have huge numbers using BTC.  He doesn't understand the tech, but that doesn't matter.  It works for him.  Bear in mind that many, many more South Asians (mostly from India) send money home than Latin Americans.  Also, 80% of Africa is "unbanked."

I agree with this 100%.

You forget that things have the potential to be "better" for business, rather than "better" for individuals, however. In this case, BTC is "better" for lending businesses, since their repayment is assured in a non-inflationary currency, and this will translate into it being better for normal merchants as well, as more BTC-based transactions occur.

[zirt]

I think, sooner or later, especially if Bitcoin goes high, NSA, FBI, will shut it down, block it. I don't know when, I don't know how, but they will do it. Too dangerous. A Dollar is a Dollar, USA owns the world, and it is like this.

[theonewhowaskazu]

I think, sooner or later, especially if Bitcoin goes high, NSA, FBI, will shut it down, block it. I don't know when, I don't know how, but they will do it. Too dangerous. A Dollar is a Dollar, USA owns the world, and it is like this.

The entire point of Bitcoin is that you can't 'shut it down'. This  is like the billionth time somebody has tried this argument. Do you people ever try understanding how Bitcoin itself works? If they wanted to "shut it down", they have to 51% it. Which is getting harder and harder every day. Its not going to happen.

[BitChick]

I think, sooner or later, especially if Bitcoin goes high, NSA, FBI, will shut it down, block it. I don't know when, I don't know how, but they will do it. Too dangerous. A Dollar is a Dollar, USA owns the world, and it is like this.

The entire point of Bitcoin is that you can't 'shut it down'. This  is like the billionth time somebody has tried this argument. Do you people ever try understanding how Bitcoin itself works? If they wanted to "shut it down", they have to 51% it. Which is getting harder and harder every day. Its not going to happen.

Right.  Wouldn't it be like shutting down the internet at this point? 

[theonewhowaskazu]

I think, sooner or later, especially if Bitcoin goes high, NSA, FBI, will shut it down, block it. I don't know when, I don't know how, but they will do it. Too dangerous. A Dollar is a Dollar, USA owns the world, and it is like this.

The entire point of Bitcoin is that you can't 'shut it down'. This  is like the billionth time somebody has tried this argument. Do you people ever try understanding how Bitcoin itself works? If they wanted to "shut it down", they have to 51% it. Which is getting harder and harder every day. Its not going to happen.

Right.  Wouldn't it be like shutting down the internet at this point? 

Potentially, it'd be actually easier to shut down the internet. The internet is more centralized in that if you control the switches you can do a massive man in the middle attack. Since most of the switches are owned by US companies, it'd be easier to harm the internet than harm bitcoin. Just look at the NSA.

A better analogy would be "Shutting down Bitcoin would be like shutting down Tor."