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Author Topic: What if Gox runs out of Bitcoins?  (Read 2858 times)
Walsoraj
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October 18, 2013, 07:13:52 PM
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I'm starting to see reports in the Service section and on Reddit of delays in withdrawing btc from Gox. It has taken several days in some cases. So far, looks like everyone eventually received their coins.

However, some of Gox's explanations are complete bullshit. For example, when they blame "net congestion." lol. That excuse, along with tapping a cold wallet, will only last so long.

Let's suppose Gox has been selling their btc to meet demand for fiat withdrawals and they are now running low. What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat?
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October 18, 2013, 07:17:09 PM
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What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat?
Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.

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October 18, 2013, 07:21:18 PM
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What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat?
Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.

Who would be foolish enough to send coins to Gox in the above scenario? Fiat is still stuck there and now it would be clearer than ever that Gox is in fact bankrupt. I think we would see price stagnation and close to zero volume.
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October 18, 2013, 07:30:31 PM
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What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat?
Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.

Who would be foolish enough to send coins to Gox in the above scenario? Fiat is still stuck there and now it would be clearer than ever that Gox is in fact bankrupt. I think we would see price stagnation and close to zero volume.

Gox will just follow China or Bitstamp, they have no choice.

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October 18, 2013, 07:31:39 PM
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Then there is no real bitcoin and no real USD left on gox and it is all an imaginary game played by bots and hopeless traders. Eventually volume dwindles to zero as people realize they are working for nothing and just spending fees. The market realizes gox is no longer relevant and bases all services and speculations on other exchanges (this has for the most part already occurred). After a possible brief panic sale at some point, bitcoin continues its rally due to its exponential growth, China, etc. Litecoin reaches sub  $1.
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October 18, 2013, 07:34:09 PM
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October 18, 2013, 07:52:00 PM
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Then there is no real bitcoin and no real USD left on gox and it is all an imaginary game played by bots and hopeless traders. Eventually volume dwindles to zero as people realize they are working for nothing and just spending fees. The market realizes gox is no longer relevant and bases all services and speculations on other exchanges (this has for the most part already occurred). After a possible brief panic sale at some point, bitcoin continues its rally due to its exponential growth, China, etc. Litecoin reaches sub  $1.

This.

Gox isn't leading anything these past few days.  They sit and wait to see what happens elsewhere, then match the action.

Gox is dead.  Oh well.. 
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October 18, 2013, 07:56:23 PM
 #8

fractional reserve gox

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October 18, 2013, 07:57:10 PM
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What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat?
Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.

Who would be foolish enough to send coins to Gox in the above scenario? Fiat is still stuck there and now it would be clearer than ever that Gox is in fact bankrupt. I think we would see price stagnation and close to zero volume.

I don't know why anyone has used Gox for any reason for the past year, but they still do.

Price stangation and zero volume on Gox maybe, but every where else will certainly see some excitement.

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Walsoraj
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October 18, 2013, 07:58:30 PM
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Then there is no real bitcoin and no real USD left on gox and it is all an imaginary game played by bots and hopeless traders. Eventually volume dwindles to zero as people realize they are working for nothing and just spending fees. The market realizes gox is no longer relevant and bases all services and speculations on other exchanges (this has for the most part already occurred). After a possible brief panic sale at some point, bitcoin continues its rally due to its exponential growth, China, etc. Litecoin reaches sub  $1.

This.

Gox isn't leading anything these past few days.  They sit and wait to see what happens elsewhere, then match the action.

Gox is dead.  Oh well.. 

It is not "oh well" if Gox dies will the vast majority of fiat. There is over 12 mil on the books and lordy knows how much off. New fiat will not rush to other exchanges after a Gox collapse. If anything, this would scare away prospective investors waiting on the sidelines.
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October 18, 2013, 08:14:35 PM
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What happens to the price in USD when it is just as difficult, if not more so, to withdraw btc as it is fiat?
Simple. The only thing left would be sending btc into MtGox. That would make the price drop. Probably it would lead to a situation where in the end, MtGox/USD would be lower than bitstamp/USD.

Who would be foolish enough to send coins to Gox in the above scenario? Fiat is still stuck there and now it would be clearer than ever that Gox is in fact bankrupt. I think we would see price stagnation and close to zero volume.

Gox will just follow China or Bitstamp, they have no choice.
this, i think. this market is so strange.....
rampantparanoia
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October 18, 2013, 08:19:25 PM
 #12

if gox runs out of coins, I will LOL and send them an e-mail letting them know they should've never quit the trading card business.

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October 18, 2013, 08:21:12 PM
 #13

Here's the deal.

Either Gox is solvent or its not.

If its solvent, then all of this will eventually unwind itself, withdraws with increase and arbitrage will bring it back in line. Or withdraws will remain the same and volume will continue to go down until its just a japanese market (assuming withdraws in Japan are/have been consistently normal).

If its not solvent, when this comes to light, Gox will tank dragging other exchanges down with it temporarily. This event will probably be another "Silk Road" crash event - worse if it happens soon, or similar if it happens down the road with other exchanges growing in size and depth.  Then the dust will settle and bitcoin will grow stronger with the Gox albatross freed from its neck.

Either way, I think people are insane to not cash into bitcoins on Gox and get the hell out. Because only the people with funds on Gox are really at risk in either of these scenarios, imo.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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October 18, 2013, 09:13:54 PM
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Why would news of gox insolvency cause gox to lead a crash? Selling will not help the user as they cannot withdraw. It seems to be the reverse where panic is driving the gox price upwards. Even if btc cannot be withdrawn also, the user would probably want to hold btc vs USD since btc is in a bull market, and its much more likely they'll someday get the ability to withdraw BTC vs USD.
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October 18, 2013, 10:18:57 PM
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Why would news of gox insolvency cause gox to lead a crash? Selling will not help the user as they cannot withdraw. It seems to be the reverse where panic is driving the gox price upwards. Even if btc cannot be withdrawn also, the user would probably want to hold btc vs USD since btc is in a bull market, and its much more likely they'll someday get the ability to withdraw BTC vs USD.

Because thousands of people losing their money through insolvency would create a short term negative view of bitcoin. Just like the end of silk road did. You are thinking about it too much. Its pretty simple that short term it would create a crisis of confidence and negative publicity.

Mtgox wouldnt crash. It would close. The other markets would crash. Temporarily.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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October 18, 2013, 10:23:02 PM
 #16

I would think that as the price rises there will be a constant stream of coin coming and going.  Everyone has a sell price.  I am sure that the hoarders will release more and more as the price increases for sure.

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October 18, 2013, 10:27:29 PM
 #17

Why would news of gox insolvency cause gox to lead a crash? Selling will not help the user as they cannot withdraw. It seems to be the reverse where panic is driving the gox price upwards. Even if btc cannot be withdrawn also, the user would probably want to hold btc vs USD since btc is in a bull market, and its much more likely they'll someday get the ability to withdraw BTC vs USD.

Because thousands of people losing their money through insolvency would create a short term negative view of bitcoin. Just like the end of silk road did. You are thinking about it too much. Its pretty simple that short term it would create a crisis of confidence and negative publicity.

Mtgox wouldnt crash. It would close. The other markets would crash. Temporarily.
I was addressing the guy who said mtgox itself would crash and lead the other exchanges.
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October 18, 2013, 10:32:50 PM
 #18

fractional reserve gox

Mt.Gox Mt.FED
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October 18, 2013, 10:34:19 PM
 #19

Why would Gox run out of bitcoins?

Currently the best way to make money off of them is to buy a bunch of bitcoins on the cheaper exchanges, send those bitcoins to MtGox and sell them at a higher price.

It is cash that they will run out of sooner.

I doubt they are trading bitcoins on other exchanges. And why would anyone withdraw bitcoins from MtGox?

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October 18, 2013, 10:39:37 PM
 #20

Why would Gox run out of bitcoins?

Currently the best way to make money off of them is to buy a bunch of bitcoins on the cheaper exchanges, send those bitcoins to MtGox and sell them at a higher price.

It is cash that they will run out of sooner.

I doubt they are trading bitcoins on other exchanges. And why would anyone withdraw bitcoins from MtGox?

Who is getting their fiat out of mt.gox? there is a reason why they are 20 bucks more a coin than anywhere else, people are forced  to buy coin and move them, like I did.. Im just glad I did it when the price was about 30 dollars cheaper.. I was lucky, I have no more coins on mt.gox.. If i were you, I would pull all coins off mt.gox, if they aren't bankrupt, they will be soon.

I havent heard of on person saying that they have been able to pull their fiat out. One guy I know has been waiting for over 2 months for just one coins worth. I have heard that they are getting to them, but they are just slow. I have a feeling its much worse over there.. Get your coins off mt.gox asap...
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