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Author Topic: How far you think Bitcoin will go?!  (Read 4110 times)
UFOMINER
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October 18, 2013, 09:34:26 PM
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The price for bitcoin in this week goes up rapidly! I think bitcoin has no limit! How do you guys think, could bitcoin easily beat $1000 per unit in next three years??
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BitChick
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October 18, 2013, 10:25:59 PM
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I keep watching the MTGox chart and it seems that after $170 it could go up pretty fast.  Of course once we hit that number more walls will appear pretty fast but with the rapid price increase momentum will increase as well. 

My speculation is that the price will get up to the same all time high, or a little above and then crash below $200 again.  Maybe not as low as it did in April though.  There are more people interested in BTC now.

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October 18, 2013, 10:26:39 PM
 #3

That said, It can definitely get up to $1000.  The question is how many ups and downs will we have to endure to get there?

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October 18, 2013, 10:35:35 PM
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The mtgox price over the last 3 years looks more or less likes a straight line on a log scale, with a bunch of superimposed ups and downs. If you smooth out the ups and downs then you get:

~ 0.7% increase per day
~ 21% increase per month
~ 900-1000% increase per year

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease? Assuming nothing catastrophic happens, I'd say it still has quite a ways to go.

If the next 2 years stay on the same trajectory as the past 3, we're looking at:

Oct 2014: 1000-2000
Oct 2015: 10,000-20,000

Which is when I retire  Grin  Cool

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October 18, 2013, 10:44:13 PM
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Against the dollar there is no upper bound, for obvious reasons (q.f. Zim$).

I think there is huge room for growth but in order to squelch the psychological impact of "bitcoin is too expensive at $XXX", we will need to start pricing in mBTC at some stage along the way. Hopefully the market can adapt to this organically. Personally, I'd suggest a big shift in thinking toward mBTC when the price is firmly over $300 or so; I already set my small wallets to show mBTC balances and only my main Bitcoin-Qt still displays in BTC.

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October 18, 2013, 11:10:33 PM
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So, how you guys think investing money to mine still profitable? Difficulty and bitcoin price both goes up.....
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October 18, 2013, 11:15:30 PM
 #7

As uses and users of bitcoin increase in number, its value will increase.  Assuming no catastrophe, bitcoin will likely to go much higher over time.  The network effect will play a big role.

Remember though: comparison to dollars and other currencies over time is not entirely accurate.  At some point a million dollars may only buy a loaf of bread; at that moment if 1 Bitcoin is worth a million dollars then it really is only worth a loaf of bread and you are not rich.

Sincerely I am, Johnny BitcoinSeed .com
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October 18, 2013, 11:44:55 PM
 #8

Honestly, aside from the occasional fall/hiccup I suspect BTC will keep on growing albeit at a decreasing rate so that eventually we hit a price point that is quite stable.
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October 18, 2013, 11:51:07 PM
 #9

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease?
If Bitcoin becomes the universal currency, then the upper plateau of the S curve would be somewhere between $5x105 and $1x107 equivalent purchasing power per bitcoin. There wouldn't actually be an exchange rate in that situation because there wouldn't be a dollar any more.



At the point at which half of world economic activity was denominated in bitcoin is about where the exponential increase should begin to slow and eventually level out.
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October 19, 2013, 12:08:28 AM
 #10

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease?
If Bitcoin becomes the universal currency, then the upper plateau of the S curve would be somewhere between $5x105 and $1x107 equivalent purchasing power per bitcoin. There wouldn't actually be an exchange rate in that situation because there wouldn't be a dollar any more.



At the point at which half of world economic activity was denominated in bitcoin is about where the exponential increase should begin to slow and eventually level out.

When half of the world's economic activity is transacted in something less than 21 million whole currency units, the value of each whole currency unit will be quite quite high.
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October 19, 2013, 03:02:25 AM
 #11

10 million each. Maybe about 20 years later..

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October 19, 2013, 02:37:38 PM
 #12

So, Bitstamp hit $170. Will it keep going up?

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October 19, 2013, 03:04:43 PM
 #13

10 million each. Maybe about 20 years later..

That is still a pretty good investment I would say. Wink

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October 19, 2013, 03:16:52 PM
 #14

I was coming up with something like $10,000 a piece with 30% penetration of internet commerce.... but then I was forecasting difficulty 6 months ahead to now and getting about 150M as "worst case" LOL

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October 19, 2013, 05:01:03 PM
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I was coming up with something like $10,000 a piece with 30% penetration of internet commerce.... but then I was forecasting difficulty 6 months ahead to now and getting about 150M as "worst case" LOL

Don't forget that bitcoins can be spent multiple times.... I pay you for a chocolate bar, you buy a newspaper, the newpaper company buys some paper, and the paper company buys some chemicals.  If you are looking at yearly sales, that volume can be done with much less btc than sales/(btc supply).  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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October 19, 2013, 08:22:00 PM
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The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease?
If Bitcoin becomes the universal currency, then the upper plateau of the S curve would be somewhere between $5x105 and $1x107 equivalent purchasing power per bitcoin. There wouldn't actually be an exchange rate in that situation because there wouldn't be a dollar any more.



At the point at which half of world economic activity was denominated in bitcoin is about where the exponential increase should begin to slow and eventually level out.

Your plot applies to a finite asset such as ounces of gold per bitcoin or pints of beer per bitcoin.  However for an infinite asset such as a fiat currency, the only possible answer is infinity.  The more interesting question of when, of course I don't know.   
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October 19, 2013, 10:56:18 PM
 #17

Think purchasing power, not notational value.
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October 20, 2013, 03:20:32 AM
 #18

Breaking news:



Couldn't resist Tongue

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October 20, 2013, 03:41:20 AM
 #19

i think it'll probably hit 4 figures in the next year or two, definitely within 3. not in this rally, though, IMO.....
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October 20, 2013, 03:45:04 AM
 #20

The mtgox price over the last 3 years looks more or less likes a straight line on a log scale, with a bunch of superimposed ups and downs. If you smooth out the ups and downs then you get:

~ 0.7% increase per day
~ 21% increase per month
~ 900-1000% increase per year

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease? Assuming nothing catastrophic happens, I'd say it still has quite a ways to go.

If the next 2 years stay on the same trajectory as the past 3, we're looking at:

Oct 2014: 1000-2000
Oct 2015: 10,000-20,000

Which is when I retire  Grin  Cool

With your time frame I'll retire before you! Tongue

Meh, maybe I need less than you Wink
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