How far you think Bitcoin will go?!

[UFOMINER]

The price for bitcoin in this week goes up rapidly! I think bitcoin has no limit! How do you guys think, could bitcoin easily beat $1000 per unit in next three years??

[BitChick]

I keep watching the MTGox chart and it seems that after $170 it could go up pretty fast.  Of course once we hit that number more walls will appear pretty fast but with the rapid price increase momentum will increase as well. 

My speculation is that the price will get up to the same all time high, or a little above and then crash below $200 again.  Maybe not as low as it did in April though.  There are more people interested in BTC now.

[BitChick]

That said, It can definitely get up to $1000.  The question is how many ups and downs will we have to endure to get there?

[BTCtrader71]

The mtgox price over the last 3 years looks more or less likes a straight line on a log scale, with a bunch of superimposed ups and downs. If you smooth out the ups and downs then you get:

~ 0.7% increase per day
~ 21% increase per month
~ 900-1000% increase per year

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease? Assuming nothing catastrophic happens, I'd say it still has quite a ways to go.

If the next 2 years stay on the same trajectory as the past 3, we're looking at:

Oct 2014: 1000-2000
Oct 2015: 10,000-20,000

Which is when I retire   

[nobbynobbynoob]

Against the dollar there is no upper bound, for obvious reasons (q.f. Zim$).

I think there is huge room for growth but in order to squelch the psychological impact of "bitcoin is too expensive at $XXX", we will need to start pricing in mBTC at some stage along the way. Hopefully the market can adapt to this organically. Personally, I'd suggest a big shift in thinking toward mBTC when the price is firmly over $300 or so; I already set my small wallets to show mBTC balances and only my main Bitcoin-Qt still displays in BTC.

[UFOMINER]

So, how you guys think investing money to mine still profitable? Difficulty and bitcoin price both goes up.....

[Johnny Bitcoinseed]

As uses and users of bitcoin increase in number, its value will increase.  Assuming no catastrophe, bitcoin will likely to go much higher over time.  The network effect will play a big role.

Remember though: comparison to dollars and other currencies over time is not entirely accurate.  At some point a million dollars may only buy a loaf of bread; at that moment if 1 Bitcoin is worth a million dollars then it really is only worth a loaf of bread and you are not rich.

[Light]

Honestly, aside from the occasional fall/hiccup I suspect BTC will keep on growing albeit at a decreasing rate so that eventually we hit a price point that is quite stable.

[justusranvier]

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease?

If Bitcoin becomes the universal currency, then the upper plateau of the S curve would be somewhere between $5x10⁵ and $1x10⁷ equivalent purchasing power per bitcoin. There wouldn't actually be an exchange rate in that situation because there wouldn't be a dollar any more.



At the point at which half of world economic activity was denominated in bitcoin is about where the exponential increase should begin to slow and eventually level out.

[mccoyspace]

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease?

If Bitcoin becomes the universal currency, then the upper plateau of the S curve would be somewhere between $5x10⁵ and $1x10⁷ equivalent purchasing power per bitcoin. There wouldn't actually be an exchange rate in that situation because there wouldn't be a dollar any more.



At the point at which half of world economic activity was denominated in bitcoin is about where the exponential increase should begin to slow and eventually level out.

When half of the world's economic activity is transacted in something less than 21 million whole currency units, the value of each whole currency unit will be quite quite high.

[hulk]

10 million each. Maybe about 20 years later..

[Taras]

So, Bitstamp hit $170. Will it keep going up?

[BitChick]

10 million each. Maybe about 20 years later..

That is still a pretty good investment I would say.

[Flashman]

I was coming up with something like $10,000 a piece with 30% penetration of internet commerce.... but then I was forecasting difficulty 6 months ahead to now and getting about 150M as "worst case" LOL

[notme]

I was coming up with something like $10,000 a piece with 30% penetration of internet commerce.... but then I was forecasting difficulty 6 months ahead to now and getting about 150M as "worst case" LOL

Don't forget that bitcoins can be spent multiple times.... I pay you for a chocolate bar, you buy a newspaper, the newpaper company buys some paper, and the paper company buys some chemicals.  If you are looking at yearly sales, that volume can be done with much less btc than sales/(btc supply).  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

[hashman]

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease?

If Bitcoin becomes the universal currency, then the upper plateau of the S curve would be somewhere between $5x10⁵ and $1x10⁷ equivalent purchasing power per bitcoin. There wouldn't actually be an exchange rate in that situation because there wouldn't be a dollar any more.



At the point at which half of world economic activity was denominated in bitcoin is about where the exponential increase should begin to slow and eventually level out.

Your plot applies to a finite asset such as ounces of gold per bitcoin or pints of beer per bitcoin.  However for an infinite asset such as a fiat currency, the only possible answer is infinity.  The more interesting question of when, of course I don't know.   

[justusranvier]

Think purchasing power, not notational value.

[wobber]

Breaking news:



Couldn't resist

[Marbit]

i think it'll probably hit 4 figures in the next year or two, definitely within 3. not in this rally, though, IMO.....

[wachtwoord]

The mtgox price over the last 3 years looks more or less likes a straight line on a log scale, with a bunch of superimposed ups and downs. If you smooth out the ups and downs then you get:

~ 0.7% increase per day
~ 21% increase per month
~ 900-1000% increase per year

The question should be: when will this exponential increase cease? Assuming nothing catastrophic happens, I'd say it still has quite a ways to go.

If the next 2 years stay on the same trajectory as the past 3, we're looking at:

Oct 2014: 1000-2000
Oct 2015: 10,000-20,000

Which is when I retire   

With your time frame I'll retire before you!

Meh, maybe I need less than you