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Marbit
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November 13, 2013, 04:59:11 AM
 #121

$500 will be broken through and then we will crash shortly after.  Smiley
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November 14, 2013, 02:17:24 PM
 #122

$500 will be broken through and then we will crash shortly after.  Smiley

Spike up to $2000 and a disastrous collapse to $800 where it will stagnate for a few months? Sweet! Tongue
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November 14, 2013, 03:58:34 PM
 #123

Uh oh, did chodpaba say we are starting to run out of steam? I do not take his comments lightly!

chodpaba, what indicators are the basis for your indicator?  Smiley

I am not treating this the same way I was trying to detect intermediate trend reversals, which I think is actually harder.

The indicator I am looking at is a simple ratio of current $volume with the cumulative total of $volume to date over a calibrated interval of BTCvolume. The accuracy has everything to do with how valid the calibration is, which is hard to tell because there are so far only two samples to go by... The $32 peak, and the $266 peak. Currently I am trying to figure out how to combine the data from various exchanges to get a better calibration. If I am right, this same kind of cycle will keep occurring, so there will eventually be plenty of points to go by.

The way I interpret this indicator is that it gleans from trading patterns what the extremes are for future price expectation. They tend to be higher farther out, and lower closer in. But then the tails start pulling in it starts to look like it is possible to extrapolate where they will finally meet. The reason this is easier for ATH peaks than it is for intermediate peaks is that it affects a larger population, and with the Law of Large Numbers on your side the projection is actually easier. It acts more like a physics problem.

Chodpada what's your current thinking, along the same lines?
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November 14, 2013, 04:26:08 PM
 #124

I think the last chance to buy below $300 was last weekend..
Any historical data that points to a 80% crash is based on the assumption that our only exchange is MtGox, which is not the case anymore.
I'm convinced that in a few years, anything below $1000/BTC will be considered cheap.

I cannot wait till next EU countries starts collapsing, I'm sure we will have a party in here. Smiley

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November 14, 2013, 04:33:16 PM
 #125

I think the last chance to buy below $300 was last weekend..
Any historical data that points to a 80% crash is based on the assumption that our only exchange is MtGox, which is not the case anymore.
I'm convinced that in a few years, anything below $1000/BTC will be considered cheap.

I cannot wait till next EU countries starts collapsing, I'm sure we will have a party in here. Smiley
I heard the same thing when it hit $200+ and it wouldn't touch "double digits ever again." Within a few weeks, I was buying more at $70-80.
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November 14, 2013, 05:13:14 PM
 #126

In other words, have we started capitulation? And the market is completely clueless about it yet?

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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November 14, 2013, 06:37:37 PM
 #127

In other words, have we started capitulation? And the market is completely clueless about it yet?

I'm looking at maybe $470 at the outside. It depends—if we can pull back and recover it might go a little higher. If not, then we start going the other way.
yikes! thanks for your input.  Smiley

do you take EW theory into consideration at all? i am trying to figure out if the next correction is wave 4 or ABC corrective...

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November 14, 2013, 06:40:51 PM
 #128

I think the last chance to buy below $300 was last weekend..
Any historical data that points to a 80% crash is based on the assumption that our only exchange is MtGox, which is not the case anymore.
I'm convinced that in a few years, anything below $1000/BTC will be considered cheap.

I cannot wait till next EU countries starts collapsing, I'm sure we will have a party in here. Smiley
I heard the same thing when it hit $200+ and it wouldn't touch "double digits ever again." Within a few weeks, I was buying more at $70-80.

Really?  Where on the chart was it $200+ and then $70 "a few weeks" later.  Maybe the day it hit $266 for 1 minute, because that's when a friend of mine got in for $70 (so lucky).

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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November 14, 2013, 06:41:50 PM
 #129

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.

We'll never see the $100s again.

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November 15, 2013, 09:31:04 AM
 #130

This rally:

522.5


Next rally:
Between 950-1338

BTC: 1JTwkAWCBtjd51Xhzu1EULmmProMYNVX9E
alexout
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November 15, 2013, 10:40:31 AM
 #131

This rally:

522.5


Next rally:
Between 950-1338

522.5$? not 522 or 523? lol
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November 15, 2013, 03:00:31 PM
 #132

$1,000
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November 15, 2013, 03:23:34 PM
 #133

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.

We'll never see the $100s again.

or the $200s
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November 15, 2013, 03:25:13 PM
 #134

$720 top
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November 15, 2013, 09:34:46 PM
 #135

If we haven't topped already, I'm going to say 832$
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November 15, 2013, 09:36:39 PM
 #136

3000$

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November 15, 2013, 09:39:03 PM
 #137

i think we are approaching the top. maybe we break $500 or so, but i think we start pulling back not long after, if we do. but what do i know, LOL? i haven't had the courage to pull the sell trigger yet.
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November 15, 2013, 09:59:07 PM
 #138

Took my meds  Grin i feel better now
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November 15, 2013, 10:04:01 PM
 #139

Infinity and beyond. Or 550$. One of them for sure  Tongue

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November 16, 2013, 01:35:43 AM
 #140

In other words, have we started capitulation? And the market is completely clueless about it yet?

I'm looking at maybe $470 at the outside. It depends—if we can pull back and recover it might go a little higher. If not, then we start going the other way.
looks like we got that pullback and recovery! let's see if we can't hit $500 or so before a real pullback.  Cheesy

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