How to predict crash?

[prophetx]

there are also fibonacci retracements...

[Corelianer]

If Mtgox gets sized again, then you should expect rapid price drop.

It's just a matter of time when they get sized again....

... but it won't kill Bitcoin...

[maursader]

If Mtgox gets sized again, then you should expect rapid price drop.

It's just a matter of time when they get sized again....

... but it won't kill Bitcoin...

Perfect time to buy!!

[prophetx]

there are also fibonacci retracements...

Someone should double check me, but bitstamp is hovering at almost exactly the 61.8% fib retracement from the earlier year high to the low that followed a couple days later...

[TERA]

there are also fibonacci retracements...

Someone should double check me, but bitstamp is hovering at almost exactly the 61.8% fib retracement from the earlier year high to the low that followed a couple days later...

I think the emergence of China has invalidated any form of TA that could be used based on previous charts (if TA could ever even have been used on bitcoin in the first place). Suddenly the market needs to correct to accept the injection of billions of Yuan.

[imrer]

there are also fibonacci retracements...

How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I think the emergence of China has invalidated any form of TA that could be used based on previous charts (if TA could ever even have been used on bitcoin in the first place). Suddenly the market needs to correct to accept the injection of billions of Yuan.

That's certainly a possibility. For example, even if Bitcoin were only used outside of China, we would still expect exponential growth. With the addition of China growth can be faster. Not double exponential, but faster than it was. However, this assumes that China was not already part of the exponential growth so far. Still, Japan for example is not part of it as there is almost no adoption in Japan. If Japan jumps aboard, price could again go up faster. The old exponential curves would have to be slightly updated. Though given how fast the growth is (10x per year), adding in China or Japan is only like fast-forwarding a few weeks perhaps.

[prophetx]

there are also fibonacci retracements...

How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support...  the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

[renaxi]

You can't really predict a crash, but only guess.

[Apraksin]

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

I've speculated away quite a few BTC to gain that insight, reading TA and all that shit. If one wants to fuck around daytrading it's better and less expensive to buy some alts and play pump and dump. My BTC are back in paperwallet to stay for good this time.

[Wary]

i follow a couple of solid analysts and try to get a feel for the market..... and then since i can't crystal ball, i just do dollar costs averaging and set limit orders up and down to take advantage of price movement.

When price fluctuates, dollar cost averaging is a good idea. When price grows, it isn't.

[imrer]

there are also fibonacci retracements...

How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support...  the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

What's the difference between bitcoin market and other markets? Why is that fucked up?

[notme]

there are also fibonacci retracements...

How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support...  the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

What's the difference between bitcoin market and other markets? Why is that fucked up?

Bitcoin is tiny compared to most markets.  This results in way more volatility and way less liquidity.

[600watt]

there are also fibonacci retracements...

How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support...  the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

What's the difference between bitcoin market and other markets? Why is that fucked up?

Bitcoin is tiny compared to most markets.  This results in way more volatility and way less liquidity.

most of all, bitcoin is a technology. not a stock. its "rate" may appear like a stock chart but pictures something completly different: adaption.
take mobile phones. cool technology, everyone wants to have it, everyone buys into it and a few company giants get incredibly rich. did anyone shout "ponzi" here? bitcoin is a cool technology. an incredibly fast growing stable network, programmable money, internet cash.... you want to be part of it ? you know what?: it´s free. it´s already there. everyone with internet access can participate within seconds. feel free to take a ride.
and indeed it will be a ride. bitcoin combines money with the net. the web gets "monetized", some bigger chunks of the economy will start to ride/exist online. the internet will become an universal tool to transfer private or public wealth.
since it had to start from small it has a direction/momentum. as a technological infrastructure it has to level up with the old technolgogy it will replace. this up-leveling is the ride you are experiencing and interpreting as stock-chart behaviour.
again, bitcoin is a cool technology, soon everyone might want to have some, just like other every technology. but this time it´s not phones, it´s our money. we will have a lot of fun, be prepared.

[imrer]

600watt,I agree with you. Once we pass the treshold it'll be mainstream and after that we won't even consider it as someting "new". It'll be just part of our lives not realizing it wasn't like this before.

Have you read something from Kevin Kelly? Great author writing about technology/technium. -> kk.org

[cp1]

It's different from other markets because it's difficult to get in and out.  Buying and selling BTC are not really easy.  Hell, holding BTC isn't even easy.

[RenegadeMind]

I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

[imrer]

I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

I invest all my btcs to ltc some time ago but now ltc's future is as bright as it was. Since then I got some BTCs and holding them. I think best thing to do if you don't know how to predict things.

[wopwop]

I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

That seems to be the smartest way in my opinion. This isn't going down and stay there for long

[viboracecata]

Nobody here can answer this question.