And if half of the miners turn off their hardwares ?

[bitcoinator]

Mining a block takes 10 minutes in average. But it may take 10 seconds or 10 weeks as well. Did anybody make a calculation, what's the probability that it will take a week to mine a single block under normal conditions (i. e. when difficulty is adequate to the total hashing power)?

[inform]

i Rusia


my pc configuration


1 gigagers
1 ram memor gb
32 video

lol


you hapy if make

akes 10 minute


i cry 

[bitcoinator]

I meant it takes 10 minutes for the whole network of course, not for individual miner.

[cowandtea]

Avage block time would be 20 minutes for a few weeks, then back to normal.

This, then our difficulty would be half and everyone would celebrate.

Why? Higher the better.

The lower the better

[algorista]

Mining a block takes 10 minutes in average. But it may take 10 seconds or 10 weeks as well. Did anybody make a calculation, what's the probability that it will take a week to mine a single block under normal conditions (i. e. when difficulty is adequate to the total hashing power)?

I've seen many guesses and opinions about but a real calculation done by someone who understands the subject has not yet been done, or at least published.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Mining a block takes 10 minutes in average. But it may take 10 seconds or 10 weeks as well. Did anybody make a calculation, what's the probability that it will take a week to mine a single block under normal conditions (i. e. when difficulty is adequate to the total hashing power)?

I've seen many guesses and opinions about but a real calculation done by someone who understands the subject has not yet been done, or at least published.

Bitcoin mining is a poisson distribution.  It is far easier to just use a poisson distribution calculator (online, graphing calculator, mathematica).

In 1 hour the expected # of events (blocks) is 6.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is ~1.7%
In 2 hours the expected # of events (blocks) is 12.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is ~0.01%

In 24 hours the expected # of events (blocks) is 144.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is essentially 0  (4.198 E-61)

[DannyHamilton]

In 24 hours the expected # of events (blocks) is 144.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is essentially 0  (4.198 E-61)

So you're saying there's still a chance?
 

[justusranvier]

In 1 hour the expected # of events (blocks) is 6.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is ~1.7%
In 2 hours the expected # of events (blocks) is 12.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is ~0.01%

In 24 hours the expected # of events (blocks) is 144.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is essentially 0  (4.198 E-61)

Using the same numbers you can say:

1 hour block times should happen approximately once every 58 hours.
2 hour block times should happen approximately once every 80 days.
1 day block times should happen approximately once every 8*10⁴⁵ universe lifetimes (34 billion years).

[Morbid]

im more worried about operation involving governmental agencies around the globe shutting down most major pools at once. we need to be more concerned aboud pool safety imho.

[algorista]

im more worried about operation involving governmental agencies around the globe shutting down most major pools at once. we need to be more concerned aboud pool safety imho.

+1

[Anon136]

im more worried about operation involving governmental agencies around the globe shutting down most major pools at once. we need to be more concerned aboud pool safety imho.

it wouldn't be pleasant but it wouldn't be the end of the world ether. most miners would just operate without a pool, even with out expecting to profit monetarily just to spite the ass holes who attacked their pools. i know i surely would and if you took a pole I'm willing to bet it would corroborate my claim.

[algorista]

I think the greed is destroying the decentralization of Bitcoin with an excessive concentration in the pools.
But that still does not have have a simple solution.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think the greed is destroying the decentralization of Bitcoin with an excessive concentration in the pools.
But that still does not have have a simple solution.

Pools are no more concentrated than they were two years ago.  If anything they are marginally less concentrated and a significantly higher solo %.

[algorista]

I think the greed is destroying the decentralization of Bitcoin with an excessive concentration in the pools.
But that still does not have have a simple solution.

Pools are no more concentrated than they were two years ago.  If anything they are marginally less concentrated and a significantly higher solo %.

We have a historical record of this information? an chart would be great to understand that.

My reasoning when I made the statement is grounded *also* on the following link.


https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/P2Pool

Decentralized payout pooling solves the problem of centralized mining pools degrading the decentralization of Bitcoin and avoids the risk of hard to detect theft by pool operators.

[Anon136]

I think the greed is destroying the decentralization of Bitcoin with an excessive concentration in the pools.
But that still does not have have a simple solution.

The moment that centralization became an issue people would switch to less populated pools and the network would become less centralized and the problem would self correct. Thats the beauty of the situation. the equipment that is operating these pools is spread all over the world and can firctionlessly move between pools so the appearance of centralization that we see from that pi chart up there is very misleading.

[algorista]

I think the greed is destroying the decentralization of Bitcoin with an excessive concentration in the pools.
But that still does not have have a simple solution.

The moment that centralization became an issue people would switch to less populated pools and the network would become less centralized and the problem would self correct. Thats the beauty of the situation. the equipment that is operating these pools is spread all over the world and can firctionlessly move between pools so the appearance of centralization that we see from that pi chart up there is very misleading.

That is a good point to think about, but often people can not see beyond their options, they just choose whichever is easier and profitable for them.
A larger pool means gains more stable and therefore there is a tendency of centralization over the years.

[Morbid]

if you leave the biggest pool alive and pull the plug on three smaller pools at the same time then you pretty much gonna have 51% attack...

[bitcoinator]

In 24 hours the expected # of events (blocks) is 144.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is essentially 0  (4.198 E-61)

Whew. Thank you very much, this answers my question :-)

[Meni Rosenfeld]

Mining a block takes 10 minutes in average. But it may take 10 seconds or 10 weeks as well. Did anybody make a calculation, what's the probability that it will take a week to mine a single block under normal conditions (i. e. when difficulty is adequate to the total hashing power)?

I've seen many guesses and opinions about but a real calculation done by someone who understands the subject has not yet been done, or at least published.

It's a trivial calculation, and numbers have been published multiple times.

Mining a block takes 10 minutes in average. But it may take 10 seconds or 10 weeks as well. Did anybody make a calculation, what's the probability that it will take a week to mine a single block under normal conditions (i. e. when difficulty is adequate to the total hashing power)?

I've seen many guesses and opinions about but a real calculation done by someone who understands the subject has not yet been done, or at least published.

Bitcoin mining is a poisson distribution.  It is far easier to just use a poisson distribution calculator (online, graphing calculator, mathematica).

In 1 hour the expected # of events (blocks) is 6.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is ~1.7%
In 2 hours the expected # of events (blocks) is 12.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is ~0.01%

In 24 hours the expected # of events (blocks) is 144.  The probability that there will be 1 or less is essentially 0  (4.198 E-61)

Use the right terms, Bitcoin mining is a Poisson process. The number of blocks in a period of time follows the Poisson distribution.

The numbers are good but I think it is more useful to think in terms of the time until the next block, which follows the exponential distribution. If the average is 10 minutes, the chance that the next block will be later than a day (1440 minutes) is exp (-1440/10) = 2.9 E-63.

As for the original question re a week, that's exp(-7*1440/10) = 1.7 E-438.

[petersiddle98]

im more worried about operation involving governmental agencies around the globe shutting down most major pools at once. we need to be more concerned aboud pool safety imho.

Who cares about pool safety when everyone isn't making money mining it