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Author Topic: false signal resulted rally in China, and it won't stop.  (Read 17602 times)
nobbynobbynoob
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October 21, 2013, 02:31:56 PM
 #21

Thanks for the Chinese perspective.

Paraphrasing but there was one part I found interesting.. American companies place people in government whereas in china the government places people in companies.

Merger of state and private sector in both cases, or in other words Fascism.

That's exactly what I was thinking: fascism by inverted routes. What's the difference between being crushed by a left jackboot and being crushed by a right jackboot? Shocked

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October 21, 2013, 03:04:16 PM
 #22

Chinese speculators waiting for a thing to spark a rally makes a lot of sense. They were the ones who had the first ASIC miners. So they must have stockpiled a lot of BTC waiting to sell at high prices. The exchanges help them with 0% fee for some fake volume et voilá a new bubble is born. Another famous chinese pump and dump strategy. Be warned ladies.
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October 21, 2013, 03:09:13 PM
 #23

A centralized power does only a handful of things at a time, and their hands are full in Xi's first 2 year's reign. (Xi is a surname, not roman number 11)

Great, because if you hadn't said that, I would have totally assumed you were talking about the roman numeral 11, and gotten really confused  Wink

The more people hear about this bitcoin thing, the more people will actually give it a try and tell their friends and family quickly realize that Bitcoin doesn't really solve any of the problems created by fiat.

I really can't for the life of me understand why anyone who didn't believe in the viability of bitcoin would spend any great amount of time reading and posting on this forum.


That's the best way to figure out who the shills are.

A practical matter would also be that if the Chinese government sees Bitcoin as a threat to Western banking (Western banks have admitted as much), then Bitcoin could be seen as a tool to increase their influence if it can undermine the European Central Bank's and the Federal Reserve's influence. But I do agree with you that if your government (or mine) felt more threatened by Bitcoin, they probably would come down on it hard.


This is important, because bitcoin is a bigger threat to a weakening fiat currency than to a strengthening one. China is still a long ways to go before their monetary and fiscal policy isn't as loose as a 13 year old Thai prostitute's vagina, but they are "tightening" and the U.S. is still "loosening." China's CB is also buying massive quantities of gold, and they encourage their citizens to purchase gold. So in some ways, Bitcoin is less of a threat to them and more of a threat to the dollar. They may not mind it so much since it may hurt their "enemy" more than it hurts them.
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October 21, 2013, 03:20:01 PM
 #24

This is important, because bitcoin is a bigger threat to a weakening fiat currency than to a strengthening one. China is still a long ways to go before their monetary and fiscal policy isn't as loose as a 13 year old Thai prostitute's vagina, but they are "tightening" and the U.S. is still "loosening." China's CB is also buying massive quantities of gold, and they encourage their citizens to purchase gold. So in some ways, Bitcoin is less of a threat to them and more of a threat to the dollar. They may not mind it so much since it may hurt their "enemy" more than it hurts them.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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October 21, 2013, 03:39:37 PM
 #25

Thank you for the interesting analysis.

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October 21, 2013, 04:00:57 PM
 #26

One question: when you say there is no way the Chinese gov would allow bitcoin on the markets, what exactly are referring to?

If Chinese government pays attention to bitcoin, it would act the same way they do towards shadow banking: fine those involved in bitcoin yet backed by government, and prosecute the entities without gvernment backing (even execute a few, like Wu Ying last year and Zeng Chengjie this year). The charge will be as usual: illegal fund-raising.

Right now there are two 'concepts'.

1. Chinese traders speculate. Few believed in a non-governmental currency taking root, as few believed anything significant yet non-governmental can take root. This translate to a huge bear market when Chinese government acts.

2. The atomsphere in China is like the roaring twenties which I read from books. Everyone feels like they are ready to make a big fortune. This can translates to potential huge bull markets.

My two cents.

I feel it is still years away until Chinese government taking action on bitcoin. A centralized power does only a handful of things at a time, and their hands are full in Xi's first 2 year's reign.

Makes sense. But from my view here in the West, China is very eager to appear mainstream especially when it comes to finance and capitalism. Therefore, if Bitcoin were to get mainstream acceptance in Europe and the US, I could see a world where China didn't try to ban bitcoin. Bitcoin isn't going to threaten a communist Chinese government at anytime in the future anyway.

This is why i've said the Western ppl has no clue about Chinese Goverment and culture.
You just proved my statement
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October 21, 2013, 04:01:46 PM
 #27

This is important, because bitcoin is a bigger threat to a weakening fiat currency than to a strengthening one. China is still a long ways to go before their monetary and fiscal policy isn't as loose as a 13 year old Thai prostitute's vagina, but they are "tightening" and the U.S. is still "loosening." China's CB is also buying massive quantities of gold, and they encourage their citizens to purchase gold. So in some ways, Bitcoin is less of a threat to them and more of a threat to the dollar. They may not mind it so much since it may hurt their "enemy" more than it hurts them.

+1. My thinking exactly.

This can develop to a WIN-WIN-WIN situation:

1. Chinese government, which is already flooded with US toilet papers and recently made angry voice over the debt ceiling and threat of default, sees promoting Bitcoin as a way to strengthen their national wealth and undermine dollar hegemony.

2. US dollar, while may suffer short to mid term due to BTC competition, can be a beneficiary in the long term because this forces the US government to clean up their act and rein in the printing press. Besides, I really don't see US government has the constitution power to ban a network protocol, if so, the founding fathers would be rolling in their graves.

3. The people, of course, get to use people's money.

This may be a little bit over-optimistic but definitely a possibility.
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October 21, 2013, 04:05:06 PM
 #28

One question: when you say there is no way the Chinese gov would allow bitcoin on the markets, what exactly are referring to?

If Chinese government pays attention to bitcoin, it would act the same way they do towards shadow banking: fine those involved in bitcoin yet backed by government, and prosecute the entities without gvernment backing (even execute a few, like the unlucky millionaire Wu Ying last year and Zeng Chengjie this year). The charge will be as usual: illegal fund-raising.

Right now there are two points that needs to be considered on understaind Chinese behaviour:

1. Chinese traders speculate. Few believed in a non-governmental currency taking root, as few believed anything significant yet non-governmental can take root. This translate to a huge bear market when Chinese government acts.

2. The atomsphere in China is like the roaring twenties which I read from books. Everyone feels like they are ready to make a big fortune. This can translates to potential huge bulls.

My two cents.

I feel it is still years away until Chinese government taking action on bitcoin. A centralized power does only a handful of things at a time, and their hands are full in Xi's first 2 year's reign. (Xi is a surname, not roman number 11)

OP i rarely see a Chinese member that can make such honest statement. Most Chinese on the interweb always talk fantasy about China which in turn gives all the Western ppl a delusion of China becoming like a Western Capitalist country. I also blame stupid mainstream media,.... frankly they're all owned by big corporations which all have benefits from working with China.
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October 21, 2013, 04:07:33 PM
 #29

A centralized power does only a handful of things at a time, and their hands are full in Xi's first 2 year's reign. (Xi is a surname, not roman number 11)

Great, because if you hadn't said that, I would have totally assumed you were talking about the roman numeral 11, and gotten really confused  Wink

The more people hear about this bitcoin thing, the more people will actually give it a try and tell their friends and family quickly realize that Bitcoin doesn't really solve any of the problems created by fiat.

I really can't for the life of me understand why anyone who didn't believe in the viability of bitcoin would spend any great amount of time reading and posting on this forum.


That's the best way to figure out who the shills are.

A practical matter would also be that if the Chinese government sees Bitcoin as a threat to Western banking (Western banks have admitted as much), then Bitcoin could be seen as a tool to increase their influence if it can undermine the European Central Bank's and the Federal Reserve's influence. But I do agree with you that if your government (or mine) felt more threatened by Bitcoin, they probably would come down on it hard.


This is important, because bitcoin is a bigger threat to a weakening fiat currency than to a strengthening one. China is still a long ways to go before their monetary and fiscal policy isn't as loose as a 13 year old Thai prostitute's vagina, but they are "tightening" and the U.S. is still "loosening." China's CB is also buying massive quantities of gold, and they encourage their citizens to purchase gold. So in some ways, Bitcoin is less of a threat to them and more of a threat to the dollar. They may not mind it so much since it may hurt their "enemy" more than it hurts them.

Another fantasy talk from the Western about China .... Roll Eyes

"encourage their citizen to purchase gold? "

LOL do you even know wtf you're talking about? Go live in China and try to buy gold freely like you do in US.... then come back here and talk like you know shit
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October 21, 2013, 04:21:49 PM
 #30

@zhangweiwu:  Thanks for writing.
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October 21, 2013, 05:07:30 PM
 #31

Nemesis, why don't you correct the statements rather than simply calling "false" "incorrect" "stupid". Are you even from China?

This is all rather interesting.

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October 21, 2013, 05:25:49 PM
 #32

Another fantasy talk from the Western about China .... Roll Eyes

"encourage their citizen to purchase gold? "

LOL do you even know wtf you're talking about? Go live in China and try to buy gold freely like you do in US.... then come back here and talk like you know shit


Yeah, it's all a giant conspiracy, illusion. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=chinese+buy+gold&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X
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October 21, 2013, 05:34:03 PM
 #33

Very interesting to read how chinese think.

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Thx so much for sharing OP!
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October 21, 2013, 06:02:13 PM
 #34

Another fantasy talk from the Western about China .... Roll Eyes

"encourage their citizen to purchase gold? "

LOL do you even know wtf you're talking about? Go live in China and try to buy gold freely like you do in US.... then come back here and talk like you know shit

Thank you for your completely useless, incorrect refutation. You imply that anecdotal evidence is more important than legitimate data. Do some actual research on that claim before you make yourself out to be an idiot... I think a google search was recommended by another poster  Wink

EDIT: Not to mention that buying and holding gold as savings is actually a culturally accepted practice throughout the east, but in the west, it is only "crazy people" who stack. Sounds like you're the one living in a fantasy world... Grin Grin Grin
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October 21, 2013, 06:56:09 PM
 #35

Also mind that Q-coin has a different position than Bitcoin. As said, in China (people think that) nothing significant can take root without being part of the government. This holds true with Q-coin. The company behind Q-coin doesn't hesitate to follow governmental scrutiny - other big players baidu, sina all show obedience to the central governmental the same way, and are allowed to live. The game that is called regulation in the west is equivalent to the game of obedience here. So it is not the question whether bitcoin can be regulated, but whether bitcoin can obey. Bitcoin trading can be regulated but bitcoin itself bends to no one - which begets the question whether or not it will be allowed to live.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin becomes so significant that the government has to make a decision, and they decided to let it live, the acceptance of bitcoin will have no consumer psychological barrier, because, as you said, we are pretty familiar with virtual currencies.
Some questions:

I read that in 2007, the government of China limited Q-coin purchases to 120 Q-coins per month for each person. Is that limit still enforced?

Bitcoin provides a way to convert yuan to Bitcoins to dollars or euros or yen, bypassing the exchange controls of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Once someone has bought Bitcoins, there is no way to prevent them from converting them to another currency outside China. Will the People's Bank of China do something to stop that? Or is Bitcoin too small to matter? 
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October 21, 2013, 07:23:02 PM
 #36

@zhangweiwu:  Thanks for informative post, greatly appreciated.
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October 21, 2013, 08:05:05 PM
 #37

Great post. It is a clear, concise and well-formulated summary that made sense of my garbled understanding of China, pieced together from bits an pieces of information from half-way around the world.

I'm not going to discuss the obvious geopolitical benefits of adopting Bitcoin - because in some sense they apply to very many other countries.

One thing I'm wondering about though is more on-topic: if the Chinese government got obedience from most Bitcoin users in China, could that qualify for the obedience-system?



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October 21, 2013, 10:47:49 PM
 #38

This can develop to a WIN-WIN-WIN situation:

1. Chinese government, which is already flooded with US toilet papers and recently made angry voice over the debt ceiling and threat of default, sees promoting Bitcoin as a way to strengthen their national wealth and undermine dollar hegemony.

2. US dollar, while may suffer short to mid term due to BTC competition, can be a beneficiary in the long term because this forces the US government to clean up their act and rein in the printing press. Besides, I really don't see US government has the constitution power to ban a network protocol, if so, the founding fathers would be rolling in their graves.
This will be lose for both Chineze and US governments. They will lose their important source of income: the printing press. And their banks will lose a lot of customers (why keep money in bank if bitcoin's % is better). So it's in interest of both governments to squash BTC. Our hope is that instead of jointly killing BTC they will use it to fight each other. Then they will lose and we will win.

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
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October 21, 2013, 10:56:25 PM
 #39

This will be lose for both Chineze and US governments. They will lose their important source of income: the printing press. And their banks will lose a lot of customers (why keep money in bank if bitcoin's % is better). So it's in interest of both governments to squash BTC. Our hope is that instead of jointly killing BTC they will use it to fight each other. Then they will lose and we will win.

The old collusion/prisoner's dilemma situation, right there.

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zhangweiwu (OP)
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October 22, 2013, 01:24:00 AM
Last edit: October 22, 2013, 09:34:04 AM by zhangweiwu
 #40

Good morning. I am surprised to see so many replies overnight.

Before answering please take a look at the new price now, Chinese trader's price is close to price of MtGox, very unusual (China used to be big export country so the price of bitcoins was often the cheapest of all global markets).

People always see what they wish to see. I also read Chinese bitcoin forums, and there is a recent poster, awaring baidu cannot stir up such a rally by the event itself, attribute the rally to that "also in the U.S. after silkroad traders feel positive because crime is purged from bitcoin".

Today's price is rising as usual, and mind the sharp raise of all Chinese exchang's price at GMT 00:00, which is local time 8 in the morning. The excitement yesterday must have made some birds rise early. Please mind that it is definitely not solid, Chinese traders are not confident - you have to decide for your own if there will be a straight bull market as confidence gets confirmed and grow, or an early rush sell. I myself betted the former and am exposed to the risk of latter, because it is too risky to be prudent: the confidence may get past to the west and change the mood globally.

In other words, it looks like sentiment drove Baidu Jiasule to accept bitcoins, rather than their acceptance driving sentiment. The Baidu story isn't what caused China to catch the Bitcoin bug; it's proof that China has caught the Bitcoin bug.

Exactly my take on the things.

One thing I'm wondering about though is more on-topic: if the Chinese government got obedience from most Bitcoin users in China, could that qualify for the obedience-system?

How do you even come to that point? This is completely mind-bogging! The government sees tools as means to control people, and obedience as Chinese be, do you think we love to obey? That we have the slightest idea to adore our government? People has to be chained to stay obedient! In my personal opinion, under this pressure people is more likely to develop to scoundrels than docile, begetting more chains.

I read that in 2007, the government of China limited Q-coin purchases to 120 Q-coins per month for each person. Is that limit still enforced?

Bitcoin provides a way to convert yuan to Bitcoins to dollars or euros or yen, bypassing the exchange controls of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Once someone has bought Bitcoins, there is no way to prevent them from converting them to another currency outside China. Will the People's Bank of China do something to stop that? Or is Bitcoin too small to matter?  

Answer your first question: I don't even bother to look up, one person 120 Q-coin per month is unbelievable nowadays. Such a limitation would serves better the purpose to test the chain - how willing a company complies with governmental rules that is against its own interest. In reality QQ makes money on entertaining people, which is never bad for a centralized power.

And your second question: I think bitcoin is too small to matter now. Unlike in the U.S. where banks own the government (at least I heard so) here government owns the bank. It look like the kind of issue that the government will take direct action with its prosecutors and police, not through policies in the People's Bank of China. (FYI In China the person prosecuted is always "found" guilty.)

Shocked by billionaires being executed Sad

Zeng was not that stupid to challange his government; he didn't. Government is made of people; the official he believe that backs him is removed from high position and his pervious investment stuck in the goverment. He probably tried to get the money back, and was likely killed for that reason. Before you assume him a tough guy, know that he may be well docile with the previous official, just got caught a unmerciful disaster. A good lesson for power strugglers. Also keep in mind that a leader of a province in China has as many man under his reign as an emperor in Europ, not to be trifled with.

OP i rarely see a Chinese member that can make such honest statement. Most Chinese on the interweb always talk fantasy about China which in turn gives all the Western ppl a delusion of China becoming like a Western Capitalist country. I also blame stupid mainstream media,.... frankly they're all owned by big corporations which all have benefits from working with China.

So you saw for yourself the roaring 20s franticness.

Chinese speculators waiting for a thing to spark a rally makes a lot of sense. They were the ones who had the first ASIC miners. So they must have stockpiled a lot of BTC waiting to sell at high prices. The exchanges help them with 0% fee for some fake volume et voilá a new bubble is born. Another famous chinese pump and dump strategy. Be warned ladies.

Can you back that? I also suspected they have fake volume with their 0% fee for a while, but it may even be true.

This is important, because bitcoin is a bigger threat to a weakening fiat currency than to a strengthening one. China is still a long ways to go before their monetary and fiscal policy isn't as loose as a 13 year old Thai prostitute's vagina, but they are "tightening" and the U.S. is still "loosening." China's CB is also buying massive quantities of gold, and they encourage their citizens to purchase gold. So in some ways, Bitcoin is less of a threat to them and more of a threat to the dollar. They may not mind it so much since it may hurt their "enemy" more than it hurts them.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

This is unrealistic. I took it as a typical U.S. idea. Why Chinese government think much of U.S. when it comes to bitcoin? More straight question: why Chinese government should take it a priority to fight the U.S.? Perhaps the people in the U.S. think they are really important and we are here everyday figuring how to fight the U.S. The chief enemy of Chinese government is, frankly, Chinese people. So is the second and third enemy. U.S. lines up the fifth enemy of Chinese government. You are not that important in this decision making.

China blocks western news outlet and facebook; don't have any idea China is doing this to fight U.S., they do it to fight us the people.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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