false signal resulted rally in China, and it won't stop.

[BitThink]

You surly studied a lot on the facts, but you are thinking on the line that one event leads to another, with a set of rule, not on the line that how leaders will consider the issue. In fact you talk as if the leaders ain't present.

Thanks a lot for your detailed reply. Actually I agree with you on that China is not a country following rules. Therefore, the risk of BTCChina is not really the legal risk, but the risk of threatening the central government.

Currently, I think this risk is pretty low. First, BTC is still not well known yet. Second, the daily volume is just millions of CNY. Most importantly, now most investors are happy because of the BTC appreciation.

The risk will be larger if 1) the BTC becomes more mainstream, 2) there's a huge crash of BTC price, or 3) one of the trading platforms may finally be proven as scam and there're a lot of angry investors.

[zhangweiwu]

Thanks a lot for your detailed reply. Actually I agree with you on that China is not a country following rules. Therefore, the risk of BTCChina is not really the legal risk, but the risk of threatening the central government.

I love western thinking applied to China: China got the highest number of English learner in the world (aguablly also highest number of English speakers in the world), hearing this overtime, China may change, and there is a good chance it is changing towards something better. And it is always good to have more people like you who follows things happening in China. -- Unless you are hired "womao" who sing praise of death panalty, in that case, I have something to say about the very part of death panalty in your words:

If BTCChina suddenly disappears with billions of CNY from the traders, then yes, they deserve death penalty.

Picture this:
1. BTCChina got hacked.
2. People rally, some lost their life's saving, some accuse BTCChina took it in their own pocket.
3. Our government got smart, decide it is easier to pacify the crowd with accused's blood.
4. BTCChina management foresee 3, and decide it is easier to just disappear with billions of CNY from the traders. If die anyway, better die with some wealth, knowing they will be framed anyway and make no attempt to cleanse their reputation.

So do they deserve death panalty?

I think death panalty can be mooted only if justice is garanteed, and it is so hard to garantee it i in the west, least China.

[supert]

So the chinese government will want to ban bitcoin when it is larger, since it cannot bend the knee.

How?

I answered this before, and you haven't read it. Just search for keyword "Zeng" in this thread. Here is more information: among the 7 Chinese exchange service providers that I am monitoring, only btcchina published a name and an address on their website, all others anonymous. All exchange providers do not accept direct bank transfer (nor domestic nor international) and only accept money through virtual accounts on alipay/tenpay (like paypal in China) because it is easier to fake personal information on these virtual accounts. Now you realize being anonymous is bad for running exchange service business - how do you entrust others to put money on your trading account? So why do they still choose to be anonymous? Because they want to keep their body alive, even a billionaire like Zeng cannot save his life.

In other words, those who operate btcchina is betting their lives or runnning incognito without our awareness. They are either the bravest or they are the biggest fraud. If they used real names, they still have a good chance to keep their body (not company) alive, as they are betting Central Government being more cautious on killing, while provincial government less, and bitcoin is going to be a central government issue. But nevertheless they are betting their lives. And I am not yet sure if btcchina people deserve a lot of respect, they could be just too greedy than too bold (their 0% trade fee policy and higher volume than MtGox fits the picture of the ubiquitous winner-take-all ambition in China, a characteristic of our time).

I had read the whole thread. That is how the exchanges are banned. Private use of bitcoin is much harder to discover. What is to prevent bitcoin black market use in China between individuals?

Thank you for your interesting posts.

[Pruden]

Excuse my naiveté, but why the Chinese characters for some keywords?

[zhangweiwu]

Excuse my naiveté, but why the Chinese characters for some keywords?

I assumed BitThink knows Chinese, for he knows much, and that he would need keywords to google for back reference. Now think back I am he one who is naive, using Chinese keywords to expose bitcointalk.org to China's sensorship. So I just replaced some with PinYin -- added PinYin to the onces that are not sensitive.

[Lohoris]

If I were to be owner of (let's say apple iTunes store):

Buy 15 000BTC @ 100$

Press release about accepting bitcoin in 3-10 days

LIFTOFF!

sell 15 000BTC @ 200$

Press release about change of heart, no bitcoin accepting in near future, sorry

And that's why you are not neither owner of iTunes store, nor in prison.

[BitThink]

Thanks a lot for your detailed reply. Actually I agree with you on that China is not a country following rules. Therefore, the risk of BTCChina is not really the legal risk, but the risk of threatening the central government.

I love western thinking applied to China: China got the highest number of English learner in the world (aguablly also highest number of English speakers in the world), hearing this overtime, China may change, and there is a good chance it is changing towards something better. And it is always good to have more people like you who follows things happening in China. -- Unless you are hired "womao" who sing praise of death panalty, in that case, I have something to say about the very part of death panalty in your words:

If BTCChina suddenly disappears with billions of CNY from the traders, then yes, they deserve death penalty.

Picture this:
1. BTCChina got hacked.
2. People rally, some lost their life's saving, some accuse BTCChina took it in their own pocket.
3. Our government got smart, decide it is easier to pacify the crowd with accused's blood.
4. BTCChina management foresee 3, and decide it is easier to just disappear with billions of CNY from the traders. If die anyway, better die with some wealth, knowing they will be framed anyway and make no attempt to cleanse their reputation.

So do they deserve death panalty?

I think death panalty can be mooted only if justice is garanteed, and it is so hard to garantee it i in the west, least China.

Don't take me wrong. I'm not praising any death penalty. On the contrary, I'm against death penalty, especially for economical crimes.

That said, if they decide to disappear with all CNY just because some BTCs are hacked, I do think they deserve life imprisonment. If BTC was lost because the site was hacked, the site owner has to take all the responsibility. If any exchange says otherwise, I doubt people will use it.

[huangxin]

You should know that China has a large population, over 10 million population, there are 14 city.
There are 3 city 20000000. (does not contain the floating population.)

[spike420211]

/grunch

regarding the housing bubble...
Do any of the Chinese ITT know if your government has a contingency plan to
gather up the speculated housing that remains vacant post-crash
and turn them into massive housing projects for the people?

[I said contingency, I'm NOT predicting this will happen...]

/end grunch

[Nagan]

Finally some healthy view on the Jiasule topic. Thanks OP!

[theonewhowaskazu]

If I were to be owner of (let's say apple iTunes store):

Buy 15 000BTC @ 100$

Press release about accepting bitcoin in 3-10 days

LIFTOFF!

sell 15 000BTC @ 200$

Press release about change of heart, no bitcoin accepting in near future, sorry

And that's why you are not neither owner of iTunes store, nor in prison.

How is announcing accepting a currency that you own a criminal offense?

Seriously, I doubt anybody accepts Bitcoins that doesn't own any.

[zhangweiwu]

Thank you for having tipped me, whoever you are:)

[Hazard]

Interesting stuff. Let me know if you want to guest write an article. http://cryptolife.net

[aminorex]

While news of Baidu accepting bitcoin payments was sensationalized, it is a strong signal nonetheless.  The operators of BTC China are well known.  One is the brother of a Litecoin author.  The real news driving bitcoin price gains is the 10% premium at which BTC trade on BTC China.  This demonstrates a huge pent-up demand, which is only gradually being expressed in the price. 

I fear that I may never get another shot at sub-$200 BTC.

On the upside, this may pull my mining ops back in the black for another year.

[baillou2]

Thanks for the Chinese perspective.

Paraphrasing but there was one part I found interesting.. American companies place people in government whereas in china the government places people in companies.

Merger of state and private sector in both cases, or in other words Fascism.

Nailed it.

[oxfeeefeee]

I was going to post something like this, but then I thought, hey, it's that obvious?

A company like Baidu, posting nothing but a message, showing nothing more than an address.

Now they accept BTC, how? via manual crediting? I'm not saying the news is not authentic, I'm just saying it must be a lot less significant than it sounds like.

[rocks]

You should know that China has a large population, over 10 million population, there are 14 city.
There are 3 city 20000000. (does not contain the floating population.)

But that population is overweight in middle age people, with relatively few children, and most of those children are boys with relatively fewer girls since chinese parents keep killing off future potential mothers, so they can have a son. If you look at china's numbers for 0-15 year old girls who determine a population's future, the population does not seem as large as the overall figures you cite.

[RationalSpeculator]

do you mean monthly rent being 200 times more than value of property?

Where I live, if you rent 1000 months, you spend enough to buy the house. The news report says a figure much lower than 1000, and they are sensored. So either I live in a very special area of Beijing (could be, because it is greener here and we have elders in the community -- the less valued locations are full of youngsters), or the newspapers are lying. I didn't do a full study of everywhere in Beijing.

Unbelievable. 1000 times month needed to buy the house. So that means a property you can rent for say $500 per month, is valued at $500,000 right?

That means a yearly rental income of $500x12=$6000 for a property valued $500,000, that is a rental return (or dividend) of 1.2% per year.

Or put differently a Price/Earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of 83. And that is an average for real estate in Beijing?

This is a bubble of epic proportions.  

Sell all you can. Prepare for a slump of many decades just like Japan.  

[Wary]

Yes, that's the question: who are the Chinese behind this rally? Are they gamblers or investors? I believe they are not gamblers only: a lot of Chinese are desperate in search of place to invest.

Where is the line? The behaviour of a gambler and a desperate investor is the same, if they don't have faith in what they are investing in.

Agree, it's a matter of definition. In a sense, all activity are speculations: we do something now, expecting some (unguaranteed) results in a future. The difference is only how distant is the future. If it weeks, it's speculator/gambler. If it years, it's investor. So if the Chinese behind this rally are mostly gamblers, they will withdraw shortly and after-the bubble-BTC-rate will return to the pre-bubble one. But if they are mostly investors, they'll buy&hold, so the rate will stay high even after the crash.

Anyway, if the rally will continue for another couple of weeks, the West will follow China and then Chinese behaviour won't matter so much: history shows that about half of Westerners hold after the crash and therefore the price after the crash will be about half of bubble peak value.

[theonewhowaskazu]

do you mean monthly rent being 200 times more than value of property?

Where I live, if you rent 1000 months, you spend enough to buy the house. The news report says a figure much lower than 1000, and they are sensored. So either I live in a very special area of Beijing (could be, because it is greener here and we have elders in the community -- the less valued locations are full of youngsters), or the newspapers are lying. I didn't do a full study of everywhere in Beijing.

Unbelievable. 1000 times month needed to buy the house. So that means a property you can rent for say $500 per month, is valued at $500,000 right?

That means a yearly rental income of $500x12=$6000 for a property valued $500,000, that is a rental return (or dividend) of 1.2% per year.

Or put differently a Price/Earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of 83. And that is an average for real estate in Beijing?

This is a bubble of epic proportions.  

Sell all you can. Prepare for a slump of many decades just like Japan.  

A dividend of 1.2% per year really isn't that bad, if you have to pay for your own expenses like utilities, repairs & any taxes that come with the land. I wish I could get 1.2% returns by investing in a noninflationary asset like land.