false signal resulted rally in China, and it won't stop.

[Miz4r]

Good morning. I am surprised to see so many replies overnight.

Before answering please take a look at the new price now, Chinese trader's price is close to price of MtGox, very unusual (China used to be big export country so the price of bitcoins was often the cheapest of all global markets).

People always see what they wish to see. I also read Chinese bitcoin forums, and there is a recent poster, awaring baidu cannot stir up such a rally by the event itself, attribute the rally to that "also in the U.S. after silkroad traders feel positive because bitcoin is purged from crime". Today's price is rising as usual, please mind that it is definitely not solid, Chinese traders are not confident - you have to decide for your own if there will be a huge bull market (as confidence gets confirmed and grow) or an early rush sell. I myself betted the former and am exposed to the risk of latter, because it is too risky to be prudent: the confidence may get past to the west and change the mood globally.

I think the west is starting to think that the Chinese speculators have gone totally mad now. Bitstamp and Gox want to take a little rest and consolidate and retrace a bit to test and build support, but the Chinese bulls are just relentless and keep on going almost without pause. It's a lot of fun to see all the enthusiasm there, but we're getting into dangerous territory now by going up this fast. One small thing can trigger a huge correction and since there has almost been no time to build any meaningful support the fall will be quite deep. We've been through this before, so people here are still wary of this. I think this is why Gox and Bitstamp have now become more hesitant to follow China, before it was all fun and good but now things start to become a little scary even for them. Please tell the Chinese speculators to take it a little easy on the greed or they might be shooting themselves in the foot later.

[scarsbergholden]

Good morning. I am surprised to see so many replies overnight.

Before answering please take a look at the new price now, Chinese trader's price is close to price of MtGox, very unusual (China used to be big export country so the price of bitcoins was often the cheapest of all global markets).

People always see what they wish to see. I also read Chinese bitcoin forums, and there is a recent poster, awaring baidu cannot stir up such a rally by the event itself, attribute the rally to that "also in the U.S. after silkroad traders feel positive because bitcoin is purged from crime". Today's price is rising as usual, please mind that it is definitely not solid, Chinese traders are not confident - you have to decide for your own if there will be a huge bull market (as confidence gets confirmed and grow) or an early rush sell. I myself betted the former and am exposed to the risk of latter, because it is too risky to be prudent: the confidence may get past to the west and change the mood globally.

I think the west is starting to think that the Chinese speculators have gone totally mad now. Bitstamp and Gox want to take a little rest and consolidate and retrace a bit to test and build support, but the Chinese bulls are just relentless and keep on going almost without pause. It's a lot of fun to see all the enthusiasm there, but we're getting into dangerous territory now by going up this fast. One small thing can trigger a huge correction and since there has almost been no time to build any meaningful support the fall will be quite deep. We've been through this before, so people here are still wary of this. I think this is why Gox and Bitstamp have now become more hesitant to follow China, before it was all fun and good but now things start to become a little scary even for them. Please tell the Chinese speculators to take it a little easy on the greed or they might be shooting themselves in the foot later.

hehe, yeah, China is CRAZY. making this bubble happen way too fast. i hardly slept last night, probably no sleep tonight..... watching for them dumps.

[derpinheimer]

Good morning. I am surprised to see so many replies overnight.

Before answering please take a look at the new price now, Chinese trader's price is close to price of MtGox, very unusual (China used to be big export country so the price of bitcoins was often the cheapest of all global markets).

People always see what they wish to see. I also read Chinese bitcoin forums, and there is a recent poster, awaring baidu cannot stir up such a rally by the event itself, attribute the rally to that "also in the U.S. after silkroad traders feel positive because bitcoin is purged from crime". Today's price is rising as usual, please mind that it is definitely not solid, Chinese traders are not confident - you have to decide for your own if there will be a huge bull market (as confidence gets confirmed and grow) or an early rush sell. I myself betted the former and am exposed to the risk of latter, because it is too risky to be prudent: the confidence may get past to the west and change the mood globally.

I think the west is starting to think that the Chinese speculators have gone totally mad now. Bitstamp and Gox want to take a little rest and consolidate and retrace a bit to test and build support, but the Chinese bulls are just relentless and keep on going almost without pause. It's a lot of fun to see all the enthusiasm there, but we're getting into dangerous territory now by going up this fast. One small thing can trigger a huge correction and since there has almost been no time to build any meaningful support the fall will be quite deep. We've been through this before, so people here are still wary of this. I think this is why Gox and Bitstamp have now become more hesitant to follow China, before it was all fun and good but now things start to become a little scary even for them. Please tell the Chinese speculators to take it a little easy on the greed or they might be shooting themselves in the foot later.

hehe, yeah, China is CRAZY. making this bubble happen way too fast. i hardly slept last night, probably no sleep tonight..... watching for them dumps.

Just download bitcoinium app. Set price alarm with hardcore mode on, make sure you dont have any battery savers on your phone..

Wala, chose your trigger points and its sure to wake you if something happens

I've gotten quite a few trades to it. And quite a few lost because battery saver stopped it from updating lmao.

[TERA]

My biggest fear, other than the volume being fake, is that this is just a bunch of high roller chinese gamblers (the Chinese love gambling) and they will all dump at once at the slightest sign of a reversal, and any whale (Chinese or otherwise) that decides to capitulate will initiate a massive crash.

[scarsbergholden]

really good to have this perspective now. thank you, OP. i'm not sure how to feel now!

[wobber]

My biggest fear, other than the volume being fake, is that this is just a bunch of high roller chinese gamblers (the Chinese love gambling) and they will all dump at once at the slightest sign of a reversal, and any whale (Chinese or otherwise) that decides to capitulate will initiate a massive crash.

Would be nice to see double or even single digits again.

[scarsbergholden]

My biggest fear, other than the volume being fake, is that this is just a bunch of high roller chinese gamblers (the Chinese love gambling) and they will all dump at once at the slightest sign of a reversal, and any whale (Chinese or otherwise) that decides to capitulate will initiate a massive crash.

Would be nice to see double or even single digits again.

yeah, i really dont have enough coins for this yet 

[Lohoris]

More straight question: why Chinese government should take it a priority to fight the U.S.? Perhaps the people in the U.S. think they are really important and we are here everyday figuring how to fight the U.S. The chief enemy of Chinese government is, frankly, Chinese people. So is the second and third enemy. U.S. lines up the fifth enemy of Chinese government. You are not that important in this decision making.

China blocks western news outlet and facebook; don't have any idea China is doing this to fight U.S., they do it to fight us the people.

That's because westerners (me included) usually struggle and fail to understand China, and usually you fear what you don't understand.
It's quite a widespread sentiment to fear that China wants to conquer the whole world, hence people react to that.
(I'm not saying this makes any sense, mind, I'm just trying to explain why many people think that China thinks we are enemies)

[bitcool]

This can develop to a WIN-WIN-WIN situation:

1. Chinese government, which is already flooded with US toilet papers and recently made angry voice over the debt ceiling and threat of default, sees promoting Bitcoin as a way to strengthen their national wealth and undermine dollar hegemony.

2. US dollar, while may suffer short to mid term due to BTC competition, can be a beneficiary in the long term because this forces the US government to clean up their act and rein in the printing press. Besides, I really don't see US government has the constitution power to ban a network protocol, if so, the founding fathers would be rolling in their graves.

This will be lose for both Chineze and US governments. They will lose their important source of income: the printing press. And their banks will lose a lot of customers (why keep money in bank if bitcoin's % is better). So it's in interest of both governments to squash BTC. Our hope is that instead of jointly killing BTC they will use it to fight each other. Then they will lose and we will win.

"important source of income" via printing press is additive drug to the governments, losing this kind of income is not a bad thing. 

The banking sectors are becoming obsolete and parasitic, a cleansing process is long overdue.

For governments, Bitcoin is like bitter pills, good to your health, but hard to swallow.

[dvdrewritable]

 I am Interested about following



https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&source=emfromsendlink&format=PDF&document_id=1010517251&extdocid=1010517251_1_eng_pdf&serialid=VLRQ4TgNxWzk%2FTvHinuua6Xm4ULQYuKKG73B%2FntsRZo%3D

I heard from some friend who was at conference in sz last week (China Internet financial forum). sentiment on p2P finance is optimistic , and some speakers had  nice words to say about bitcoin

[Wary]

"important source of income" via printing press is additive drug to the governments, losing this kind of income is not a bad thing. 

The banking sectors are becoming obsolete and parasitic, a cleansing process is long overdue.

For governments, Bitcoin is like bitter pills, good to your health, but hard to swallow.

It seems we are in different paradigms. In your paradigm, the state is people's servant. In mine, the state is people's parasite. You beleive that state strives to benefit us. In mine, it doesn't care about us and does good things only when forced to it.

[Wary]

My biggest fear, other than the volume being fake, is that this is just a bunch of high roller chinese gamblers (the Chinese love gambling) and they will all dump at once at the slightest sign of a reversal

Yes, that's the question: who are the Chinese behind this rally? Are they gamblers or investors? I believe they are not gamblers only: a lot of Chinese are desperate in search of place to invest.

[supert]

So the chinese government will want to ban bitcoin when it is larger, since it cannot bend the knee.

How?

[PrintMule]

If I were to be owner of (let's say apple iTunes store):

Buy 15 000BTC @ 100$

Press release about accepting bitcoin in 3-10 days

LIFTOFF!

sell 15 000BTC @ 200$

Press release about change of heart, no bitcoin accepting in near future, sorry

[RustyRussell]

If you search the topic in baidu of the last week's price rise, and you search in Chinese, most posts and reports ascribe it to the recent adoption of bitcoin payment method by a web service of Baidu (jiasule.baidu.com).

BTW, do you have a bitcoin address we can tip to?

Cheers,
Rusty.

[zhangweiwu]

If you search the topic in baidu of the last week's price rise, and you search in Chinese, most posts and reports ascribe it to the recent adoption of bitcoin payment method by a web service of Baidu (jiasule.baidu.com).

BTW, do you have a bitcoin address we can tip to?

Cheers,
Rusty.

Oh yes I forgot that. Thank you! I just added it to my signature.

1H8zTiwu7cLFzoVaUkUSGZhEgE8RKxyQbZ

[zhangweiwu]

So the chinese government will want to ban bitcoin when it is larger, since it cannot bend the knee.

How?

I answered this before, and you haven't read it. Just search for keyword "Zeng" in this thread. Here is more information: among the 7 Chinese exchange service providers that I am monitoring, only btcchina published a name and an address on their website, all others anonymous. All exchange providers do not accept direct bank transfer (nor domestic nor international) and only accept money through virtual accounts on alipay/tenpay (like paypal in China) because it is easier to fake personal information on these virtual accounts. Now you realize being anonymous is bad for running exchange service business - how do you entrust others to put money on your trading account? So why do they still choose to be anonymous? Because they want to keep their body alive, even a billionaire like Zeng cannot save his life.

In other words, those who operate btcchina is betting their lives or runnning incognito without our awareness. They are either the bravest or they are the biggest fraud. If they used real names, they still have a good chance to keep their body (not company) alive, as they are betting Central Government being more cautious on killing, while provincial government less, and bitcoin is going to be a central government issue. But nevertheless they are betting their lives. And I am not yet sure if btcchina people deserve a lot of respect, they could be just too greedy than too bold (their 0% trade fee policy and higher volume than MtGox fits the picture of the ubiquitous winner-take-all ambition in China, a characteristic of our time).

[zhangweiwu]

My biggest fear, other than the volume being fake, is that this is just a bunch of high roller chinese gamblers (the Chinese love gambling) and they will all dump at once at the slightest sign of a reversal

Yes, that's the question: who are the Chinese behind this rally? Are they gamblers or investors? I believe they are not gamblers only: a lot of Chinese are desperate in search of place to invest.

Where is the line?

The behaviour of a gambler and a desperate investor is the same, if they don't have faith in what they are investing in.

For your information, in some areas of Beijing the rent-to-purchase ratio of real estate is already at the level of 1000:1 (norm is 200:1), that is much beyond when Japan had their real estate bubble burst. And real investors, investors betting the happiness of the rest of his life and his family's, are still pouring money into Beijing real estate purchase. Are they investors or gamblers? Just this morning I read a post someone saying he put his life's saving into bitcoin and wishing it to triple, so that he can cash out and buy real estate in Beijing and thus move to live in Beijing. There are much less logic behind investment, only sentiment matters.

I am stil betting this madness can go on a few days - after that, it depends on the sentiment.

[wobber]

I see walls building up. And makes me feel we'll never go beyond 205.5.

[BitThink]

So the chinese government will want to ban bitcoin when it is larger, since it cannot bend the knee.

How?

I answered this before, and you haven't read it. Just search for keyword "Zeng" in this thread. Here is more information: among the 7 Chinese exchange service providers that I am monitoring, only btcchina published a name and an address on their website, all others anonymous. All exchange providers do not accept direct bank transfer (nor domestic nor international) and only accept money through virtual accounts on alipay/tenpay (like paypal in China) because it is easier to fake personal information on these virtual accounts. Now you realize being anonymous is bad for running exchange service business - how do you entrust others to put money on your trading account? So why do they still choose to be anonymous? Because they want to keep their body alive, even a billionaire like Zeng cannot save his life.

In other words, those who operate btcchina is betting their lives or runnning incognito without our awareness. They are either the bravest or they are the biggest fraud. If they used real names, they still have a good chance to keep their body (not company) alive, as they are betting Central Government being more cautious on killing, while provincial government less, and bitcoin is going to be a central government issue. But nevertheless they are betting their lives. And I am not yet sure if btcchina people deserve a lot of respect, they could be just too greedy than too bold (their 0% trade fee policy and higher volume than MtGox fits the picture of the ubiquitous winner-take-all ambition in China, a characteristic of our time).

I am afraid I have to disagree with you on two things:
1) BTCChina accepts direct bank transfer.
2) Running an bitcoin exchange is different than running a stock exchange or opening a virtual IPO. It's just a platform for people to buy/sell a commodity (BTC is not treated as currency yet in China). So I don't think they are risking their life.  They may be force closed and fined, or even charged for tax, license issues, but definitely not terminated as long as they do not just flee with all traders' money.
I like your analysis, but please don't exaggerate and keep objective.