Bitcoins will become Betamax if we don't do THIS

[tonygal]

Sony had the superior technology. Betamax was better than VHS. So what happened?

Numbers. It's all about numbers. JVC, Panasonic, Hitachi, Mitsubishi and others all ganged up and pushed out an inferior technology to the masses.  But an inferior technology with a 2-hour tape.

And we all know what happened next. Betamax entusiasts were left talking to themselves about the great benefits of their tehnology.

Here is another comparison. Linux users swear up and down about how great of an operating system it is. Mac users too.  But what kind of market share do they get?

Hint:  the answer is here  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems

So how does bitcoin position itself to avoid going the way of betamax, or relegated to a 2% market share?  We all agree we have the best technology. But how do we get the NUMBERS?

1.  Make the wallet easier to use
2.  Make trading more accessible
3.  Make it easier for businesses to accept it

These same points have been made by many people. But to offer a solution you really need to look at the business case study of VHS v. Betamax.  Here's one source, but look for others:

http://gizmodo.com/5316722/the-dirty-backstabbing-mess-called-betamax-vs-vhs

And then read up how Sony changed their gameplan when Toshiba et. al. ganged up on them once again and tried to push HD-DVD against blu-Ray.  This is THE business case study we all must learn from if bitcoin is ever going to make it!  What really happened behind the scenes at Warner Bros?  Before they dropped their bombshell that they will stop supporting HD-DVD?  If anyone has the inside scoop, please share.

I know some very smart people are working on the bitcoin wallet. And some very smart people are working on the exchange aspect.  And some very smart people are working on the merchant side too. Every link in the chain needs to be absolutely the best it can be. And then we need to push this everywhere. To everyone.  And quickly.

We have a Technical Lead for bitcoin, which is a great thing.  We also need a Business Lead for bitcoin.  Someone to push out the message in a controlled proactive fashion, and not put us always in a reactive mode.  Because we are always reacting to something bad, and it's the completely wrong way to market a product.

In NY at the Conference, I would like to meet with anyone that is interested in forming a committee to conduct a search for a "Business Lead" for bitcoins.  We need it desperately, but let's figure out all the requirements of the job before we just start nominating people.

I will be in NY for the conference, with Steve and the rest of the Bit-pay team. Including Alison. If you don't know who Alison is, click here:

https://bit-pay.com

I look forward to a great weekend of bitcoin!

Tony

[ctoon6]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture.

[tonygal]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture.

Correct.  Sony did release a 2-hour tape.  But by then VHS was too far ahead in the Numbers.

[Yatta99]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture better porn.

Fixed that for you 

[Tasty Champa]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture better porn.

Fixed that for you 

that's it.
Same reason why we have such a robust internet now, porn.

[tonygal]

Exactly... VHS won out because of porn.

True.  The porn companies also got behind HD-DVD.  When it lost, they said fine.  We'll just stream it.  We don't need your $10 blank discs.

[ctoon6]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture better porn.

Fixed that for you 

that is also true  

[Jack of Diamonds]

And we all know what happened next. Betamax entusiasts were left talking to themselves about the great benefits of their tehnology.

Here is another comparison. Linux users swear up and down about how great of an operating system it is. Mac users too.  But what kind of market share do they get?

The issue being, we're dealing with highly technical products (Linux, Bitcoins, Video recording technology). Rather than in the product itself, some blame lies in the developers.

Developers of those technologies are usually very skilled in their own area of work, some perhaps nearing genius rather than being 'ordinary workers' but the communities are generally (note: not always) socially inept. You could compare them to a collective mind of autists or aspergers.

Linus Torvalds, the creator of Linux, is known to continuously bring up this issue on the Linux mailing list because he gets annoyed by completely introverted and shut-in people who pay zero attention and regularly ignore the common usability of the code they write, rather only focusing on the 'function' which even an experienced programmer might have a hard time understanding.

The more user-friendly and social you make your technical product the more users and revenue it's going to attract. That's a simple fact and you can see it in every success story. Companies like Apple and Microsoft go to painstaking lengths to make their technical products as accessible to the typical non-geek as possible.

At the other end of the spectrum you have geeks who are good at programming and make phenomenal products but are irritated by the incompetence of the end user (typical Joe or Jane average), completely unable to grasp the fact 99.99% of the population has no idea what the hell they are trying to explain in highly technical terms.

People don't want command line interfaces. People don't care about kernels or which type of cryptography provides the highest security. People don't want to go through 5 hoops just to buy something online.
This mystical "people" is the average person on the streets. He or she wants something that will improve their lives or entertain them with the least possible effort.

[Jack of Diamonds]

The mystical "people" are also the ones that get their personal data stolen via Citi and have to fight with them when their shit gets stolen.

Exactly. As a programmer, you almost need to 'protect these people from themselves' if you want your company to still have them as customers in the future (regardless of their stupidity or technical ineptitude, they are still giving your company money regularly and paying your salary).

They don't care about the details, they just want things to work easily and be safe. That's what Joe/Jane Average pays for. It's useless to despise them for their stupidity when your livelihood comes from them. Think of it like supporting your grandmother who can barely turn the PC on. Don't hate on them, make the product even more 'idiot-proof' on it's own.

(Bitcoin developers don't get a salary but they might have other vested interests, financial or personal, to make bitcoins as user-friendly as possible)

[flyswatta]

IMHO, you get porn and poker sites (read: pokerstars) to accept bitcoin and this will be the dominate currency of the future. 

[Anonymous]

I seem to recall this forum driving off the only porn site that was accepting bitcoins...

[Phinnaeus Gage]

"Sony had the superior technology. Betamax was better than VHS. So what happened?"

After I finished reading the OP, I immediately thought of this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRVdiHu1VCc At first viewing, one may wonder where's the connection. May I suggest watching it with the OP in/on mind.

Then read the follow. Why Imitation Bests Innovation: http://www.forbes.com/2010/05/11/china-america-innovation-leadership-mangement-imitation-book.html

[BusmasterDMA]

When you take into account servers and Android OS, I'd say Linux has been fairly successful.  There are large numbers of people using it without even realizing it (or caring).  Bitcoin can achieve a similar success.

[CurbsideProphet]

Nice post OP.  As I stated in another thread, by design, Bitcoin puts the onus on the user to shape its future.  Having a revolutionary piece of technology is not enough, Bitcoin will succeed or fail based on the amount of effort put forth by its users. 

Reminds me of the quote: "Two hands at work will accomplish more than a thousand clasped in prayer."

If anyone is currently working on projects to improve Bitcoin's infrastructure and is in need of assistance, feel free to PM me or post to the forums. 

[neo1999]

When you take into account servers and Android OS, I'd say Linux has been fairly successful.  There are large numbers of people using it without even realizing it (or caring).  Bitcoin can achieve a similar success.

Also don't forget OSX and iOS are both based on the Linux kernel.

It's true that usability and accessibility must be improved in order to accelerate adoption of Bitcoin, but even if those improvements are slow to come, I don't think Bitcoin will die right away. It's already carved out a good niche and developed a devoted following. I don't think anyone's crystal ball can predict what we'll be doing with bitcoins 2, 5 or 20 years from now.

[wumpus]

The issue being, we're dealing with highly technical products (Linux, Bitcoins, Video recording technology). Rather than in the product itself, some blame lies in the developers.

Why would the developers need to be the people that promote it? In an open source community, everyone does what they find fun / are good in. If you're not a PR person you don't have any "blame" for not being good at that.

In the case of Linux, it's mainly the ecosystem of companies around it (Redhat, Ubuntu, etc) that have people that promote its use to "normals", not the developers themselves.

In the case of bitcoin there is currently mainly a lot of mouth-to-mouth and media attention spreading it. But if you want to volunteer doing PR work that'd be great ofcourse

Reminds me of the quote: "Two hands at work will accomplish more than a thousand clasped in prayer."

+1 I'm a huge fan of people that do something instead of telling others what to do or what is best to do.

[jackjack]

When you take into account servers and Android OS, I'd say Linux has been fairly successful.  There are large numbers of people using it without even realizing it (or caring).  Bitcoin can achieve a similar success.

Also don't forget OSX and iOS are both based on the Linux kernel.

I thought it was BSD

[tvbcof]

When you take into account servers and Android OS, I'd say Linux has been fairly successful.  There are large numbers of people using it without even realizing it (or caring).  Bitcoin can achieve a similar success.

Also don't forget OSX and iOS are both based on the Linux kernel.

I thought it was BSD

Drifting off topic...

My understanding is that the OSX _kernel_ is mostly based on the Mach work.  That a good bit of Mach work happened to be integrated into FreeBSD (previously) was mostly tangential.  As I understand it, the OSX _userland_ leveraged FreeBSD work, at least early on.  More palatable license model upon which to base a commercial product compared to the GNU stuff.  I think Android used the BSD-licensed C libraries for similar reasons.  Not sure where things stand now.

[tonygal]

Why would the developers need to be the people that promote it?

Yea yes yes. That was exactly the point I made with the bold and red in the OP. We also need a business lead for bitcoin. That is the issue here. The technical programmers should not be the ones getting grilled on TV. we need a more proactive business message for bitcoins.  It needs to be a consistent and well rehearsed message. we need numbers.

 

[Chris Acheson]

Yea yes yes. That was exactly the point I made with the bold and red in the OP. We also need a business lead for bitcoin. That is the issue here. The technical programmers should not be the ones getting grilled on TV. we need a more proactive business message for bitcoins.  It needs to be a consistent and well rehearsed message. we need numbers.

Your OP should do more to emphasize this.  Maybe phrase it as something like "the next step for promoting Bitcoin" instead of "Bitcoin is dead if we don't do this".  As it stands, you've drawn the rabid defenders out of the woodwork, who've derailed the topic.

May want to just kill this thread and post another.

[Steve]

Elections are for politicians, leaders make things happen.  I don't think a "business lead" is what's needed (and really, I abhor that "business" vs "technical" type casting BS)...no committees, no votes.  We just need people with good ideas and initiative to run with it.

So, let's discuss that.  I really don't like the sort of undisciplined, in your face kind of marketing approach that many are advocating (plastering bitcoin here or there, etc).  And, really, the software is not quite there yet for a mass audience.  So any marketing efforts should take that into consideration and evolve as the software evolves.  The worst thing from a marketing perspective is having a lot of people get exposed to it too early and rather than recognize its potential, they can't see past its shortcomings (stolen wallets, poor exchange security, regulatory uncertainty, use for illegal trade, etc...there are plenty of shortcomings). 

I think if you want to expand the use of bitcoin, you're better off focusing energy on the people who are already sold on the potential of bitcoin, but for one reason or another can't quite make it work or aren't able to use it as much as they'd like.  These are the people that are already trying to look past the current shortcomings, and if not for one or two missing things, would be using bitcoin or using bitcoin more often.  This will address key pain points for many people.

In addition to that, people need to keep searching for that critical niche where bitcoin's unique design gives it a clear advantage and address that market.  But for goodness sake, don't run out and try to start one of these businesses.  Just because you have a great hammer, it doesn't mean you should run out and start a construction business.

[MaGNeT]

On the other side... Who uses a VHS recorder nowadays 

[netrin]

In addition to that, people need to keep searching for that critical niche where bitcoin's unique design gives it a clear advantage and address that market.
✔
But for goodness sake, don't run out and try to start one of these businesses.  Just because you have a great hammer, it doesn't mean you should run out and start a construction business.
?

[Steve]

In addition to that, people need to keep searching for that critical niche where bitcoin's unique design gives it a clear advantage and address that market.
✔
But for goodness sake, don't run out and try to start one of these businesses.  Just because you have a great hammer, it doesn't mean you should run out and start a construction business.
?

 ...the point I was trying to make is that it's great if bitcoin is useful for some business, but apply bitcoin to that business, don't necessarily try and go into that business yourself but focus instead on enabling the existing businesses with bitcoin.  Sell your great new hammer to construction businesses rather than start your own construction business.

[netrin]

[dinzy]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture better porn.

Fixed that for you 

that's it.
Same reason why we have such a robust internet now, porn.

Either that or due to high energy physicists continuously pushing for bleeding edge data transfers.

[Exonumia]

Sony had the superior technology. Betamax was better than VHS. So what happened?

Betamax is still in use by broadcasters to this day... perhaps bitcoin wants to be the currency for professionals?

[wumpus]

Betamax is still in use by broadcasters to this day... perhaps bitcoin wants to be the currency for professionals?

BTC already has a clear niche where it is succesful, I think this topic is about extending it outside that

I agree that helping current businesses accept bitcoin would be a very good idea. For example, making it easier to integrate it into current sites and merchant solutions, and promoting these easy solutions.

I was about to persue this some months ago but got "stuck" in building a better client GUI

[silverchair]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture better porn.

Fixed that for you 

that's it.
Same reason why we have such a robust internet now, porn.

Either that or due to high energy physicists continuously pushing for bleeding edge data transfers.

LOL

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Amateurs...Built the ark.

Professionals...Built the Titanic!

[phelix]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture better porn.

Fixed that for you 

that's it.
Same reason why we have such a robust internet now, porn.

so is that the lesson... more bitcoin porn?

[neo1999]

When you take into account servers and Android OS, I'd say Linux has been fairly successful.  There are large numbers of people using it without even realizing it (or caring).  Bitcoin can achieve a similar success.

Also don't forget OSX and iOS are both based on the Linux kernel.

I thought it was BSD

I stand corrected. Still, while MS has been busy monopolizing the desktop, *nix begat the preferred mobile platforms. Believe me, I hope Bitcoin gets popular support soon, as that would quickly increase the value of my BTC. However if that doesn't happen now, BTC could still become big later, perhaps in some application no one has even thought of yet.

[ampkZjWDQcqT]

Here is another comparison. Linux users swear up and down about how great of an operating system it is. Mac users too.  But what kind of market share do they get?

No. That's the GNU/Linux operating system.

[LeonGeeste]

A lot of this is getting off topic.  I think the TC's point is fundamentally sound.  I think the way to pursue is to make it possible for businesses to "accept bitcoin without accepting bitcoin".  That is, make it so that they list it as a payment option, but once you choose to pay with bitcoin, it automatically converts (perhaps through some intermediary service) into the currency the merchant wants and pays the merchant that way.  This would significantly increase bitcoin's visibility and remove a lot of the frictions and uncertainty associated with it.

Maybe if we could get a major BTC exchange to go along in and reduce the fee on such currency trades in exchange for all the business that would come their way?

[tonygal]

I think the TC's point is fundamentally sound.  I think the way to pursue is to make it possible for businesses to "accept bitcoin without accepting bitcoin".  That is, make it so that they list it as a payment option, but once you choose to pay with bitcoin, it automatically converts (perhaps through some intermediary service) into the currency the merchant wants and pays the merchant that way.  This would significantly increase bitcoin's visibility and remove a lot of the frictions and uncertainty associated with it.

Leon, check out https://bit-pay.com and watch us on the Bitcoin Show tomorrow (Wednesday).  We will discuss a new service that does exactly what you are asking for.

[BillX]

VHS won because they had a longer record time. even though the betamax did have slightly better resolution and overall quality of the picture better porn.

Fixed that for you 

that's it.
Same reason why we have such a robust internet now, porn.

so is that the lesson... more bitcoin porn?

Absolutely! Just ask Vegetta (or whatever he changed his name to in probable disgrace) about how well bitcams is coming along. Its a great example of porn and bitcoin joining forces!

[btcbaby]

Elections are for politicians, leaders make things happen.  I don't think a "business lead" is what's needed (and really, I abhor that "business" vs "technical" type casting BS)...no committees, no votes.  We just need people with good ideas and initiative to run with it.

So, let's discuss that.  I really don't like the sort of undisciplined, in your face kind of marketing approach that many are advocating (plastering bitcoin here or there, etc).  And, really, the software is not quite there yet for a mass audience.  So any marketing efforts should take that into consideration and evolve as the software evolves.  The worst thing from a marketing perspective is having a lot of people get exposed to it too early and rather than recognize its potential, they can't see past its shortcomings (stolen wallets, poor exchange security, regulatory uncertainty, use for illegal trade, etc...there are plenty of shortcomings). 

I think if you want to expand the use of bitcoin, you're better off focusing energy on the people who are already sold on the potential of bitcoin, but for one reason or another can't quite make it work or aren't able to use it as much as they'd like.  These are the people that are already trying to look past the current shortcomings, and if not for one or two missing things, would be using bitcoin or using bitcoin more often.  This will address key pain points for many people.

In addition to that, people need to keep searching for that critical niche where bitcoin's unique design gives it a clear advantage and address that market.  But for goodness sake, don't run out and try to start one of these businesses.  Just because you have a great hammer, it doesn't mean you should run out and start a construction business.

+1

[ctoon6]

Absolutely! Just ask Vegetta (or whatever he changed his name to in probable disgrace) about how well bitcams is coming along. Its a great example of porn and bitcoin joining forces!

off topic, but i think most of the bitcoin community have a similar opinion.

[Serge]

I think the TC's point is fundamentally sound.  I think the way to pursue is to make it possible for businesses to "accept bitcoin without accepting bitcoin".  That is, make it so that they list it as a payment option, but once you choose to pay with bitcoin, it automatically converts (perhaps through some intermediary service) into the currency the merchant wants and pays the merchant that way.  This would significantly increase bitcoin's visibility and remove a lot of the frictions and uncertainty associated with it.

Leon, check out https://bit-pay.com and watch us on the Bitcoin Show tomorrow (Wednesday).  We will discuss a new service that does exactly what you are asking for.

Tony, will you be on 2pm show or in the evening one?

[netrin]

Absolutely! Just ask Vegetta (or whatever he changed his name to in probable disgrace) about how well bitcams is coming along. Its a great example of porn and bitcoin joining forces!

Looked to me if the boys shut up and listened to Jessy Kang they might have a good biz model. I don't grok how the porn industry makes money but if I were a customer I'd certainly prefer to avoid a paper trail.

[tonygal]

Tony, will you be on 2pm show or in the evening one?

2:00!

[Atdhe]

IMHO, you get porn and poker sites (read: pokerstars) to accept bitcoin and this will be the dominate currency of the future. 

pokerstars can not do it
they went out of USA and it was part of the deal with FBI
they want to be licensed in the USA

but smaller poker rooms: YES
or some whitelabels

[dancupid]

As a trader I'm happy to accept bitcoins, but no one has them so few people buy in this way.
I want it the other way round - ie a buyer can pay with their credit card, bank transfer etc and I receive payment in bitcoins (which I can easily convert to cash whenever I like).  
This makes international trade much easier as the buyer does not need to be aware that transfer of value occurred in bitcoins.
There could be an open source payment checkout system that links to to the exchange of your choice in your own country, you press pay and the money is immediately converted to bitcoins in the local exchange and sent to the seller anywhere in the world. If the seller's exchange is connected to this system it could automatically convert the bitcoins to cash in the local currency (if the seller prefers cash).
All the exchanges around the world could function like a distributed paypal without having to open branches in every country.
No single entity needs to open it's own branch in every country - each exchange would be responsible for dealing with local legislation.

[ctoon6]

As a trader I'm happy to accept bitcoins, but no one has them so few people buy in this way.
I want it the other way round - ie a buyer can pay with their credit card, bank transfer etc and I receive payment in bitcoins (which I can easily convert to cash whenever I like).  
This makes international trade much easier as the buyer does not need to be aware that transfer of value occurred in bitcoins.
There could be an open source payment checkout system that links to to the exchange of your choice in your own country, you press pay and the money is immediately converted to bitcoins in the local exchange and sent to the seller anywhere in the world. If the seller's exchange is connected to this system it could automatically convert the bitcoins to cash in the local currency (if the seller prefers cash).
All the exchanges around the world could function like a distributed paypal without having to open branches in every country.
No single entity needs to open it's own branch in every country - each exchange would be responsible for dealing with local legislation.

I like that idea, but the best solution is to pay in bitcoin everywhere, and get paid in bitcoin. then you never have to exchange in and out of USD.

[dancupid]

I like that idea, but the best solution is to pay in bitcoin everywhere, and get paid in bitcoin. then you never have to exchange in and out of USD.

The people who buy my products don't have bitcoin. I agree if everyone had bitcoin it would be great - but they don't. And until they do, there should be a mechanism that allows them to pay without going through paypal. Bitcoin is such a brilliant concept, and it has the potential of making straight cash payments easy too. (Indecently I'm British, so I have no use for USD anyway)

[heavyb]

I will be in NY for the conference, with Steve and the rest of the Bit-pay team. Including Alison. If you don't know who Alison is, click here:

https://bit-pay.com

I look forward to a great weekend of bitcoin!

Tony

SUP ALISON???

[Atdhe]

As a trader I'm happy to accept bitcoins, but no one has them so few people buy in this way.
I want it the other way round - ie a buyer can pay with their credit card, bank transfer etc and I receive payment in bitcoins (which I can easily convert to cash whenever I like).  
This makes international trade much easier as the buyer does not need to be aware that transfer of value occurred in bitcoins.
There could be an open source payment checkout system that links to to the exchange of your choice in your own country, you press pay and the money is immediately converted to bitcoins in the local exchange and sent to the seller anywhere in the world. If the seller's exchange is connected to this system it could automatically convert the bitcoins to cash in the local currency (if the seller prefers cash).
All the exchanges around the world could function like a distributed paypal without having to open branches in every country.
No single entity needs to open it's own branch in every country - each exchange would be responsible for dealing with local legislation.

I like that idea, but the best solution is to pay in bitcoin everywhere, and get paid in bitcoin. then you never have to exchange in and out of USD.

It will come later. I think the idea is great. Same is with ewallets, when you can pay :thru: them even when actually you use your CC. This way BTC can imprint into peoples minds. Building reputation of BTC will take a while.