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Author Topic: The DEATH CROSS is in. How low will we go?  (Read 454 times)
BrewMaster
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March 22, 2018, 03:55:12 PM
 #21

if you look at each of the previous major dumps from the ATH you can see each of them are getting smaller and smaller and all of them without exception started with a huge FUD.
right now there is no reason for a drop but only reason for a rise. and unless a fresh FUD starts up i don't see any major drops either.

just because $9500 is not the price we are seeing doesn't mean there will be a drop. it is more like a retracement before testing it again from where i am standing.

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March 22, 2018, 05:02:21 PM
 #22

Death cross.  Roll Eyes

There is only supply and demand. Death crosses are for stocks, bonds, and other assets that can die. Bitcoin does not need your money.

More bitcoin delusion.
It DOES need our money, if people don't keep buying and the early adapters keep selling it will be worth nothing in no-time. That's why it's a scam and people are calling it out for it!
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March 22, 2018, 05:04:57 PM
 #23

We failed to close above the 200 day and we just got a very bad death cross, both signalling an upcoming hard sell.
We'll see $6000 real soon and i think we'll drop much lower even.

Thoughts? Why has bitcoin failed again to recover? MtGox? Governments? Criminals selling off?

I wouldn't focus too much on TA in that case.
Remember we were going up for 2 years. So we are just retracing for about 3 months now, this is nothing!
Although we know anything can happen with Bitcoin, therefore the honeybadgers decides to moon out of nothing, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more months of consolidation with some minor up and down swings in a range of 6-10k. Even new lows aren't out of question for me.
If you're in for long just hold and wait until the market reverses. So far we're still in a bear market.

Ah yes, just ignore TA. TA is for all those millions of professional loser economists and traders that run the world business and economy.

HODL is the game!
The game that is the bitcoin scam. The scam community has to come up with some hype buzzword to draw in investors and make sure idiots keep buying "low" while early adapters sell at premium ridiculous prices and get filthy rich without ever moving a finger to contribute to society!

Technical analysis has been wrong a billion times in bitcoin. All the analysts that are now playing the "death cross" game called a top of $7500 for 2017, then we went to $20000. A bunch of idiots thought that "professional technical analysts" predictions couldn't fail, but that is exactly what they did, so all of these people now want lower prices to get back, in which group I suspect you belong to.

On a long enough time, your posts will look as stupid as this:



So be careful with these shorts my friend, or you may go bankrupt and not able to buy back the dip, which is what you all obviously want. Anyone that has been here for a couple of years isn't stupid enough to claim "bitcoin is a scam and it's going to die". Translation of that is "please price, go down, I sold and I need to buy back in cheaper".

On the other hand, holders on a long enough timeline can only meet one destiny: to get rich as fuck.

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March 22, 2018, 05:21:07 PM
 #24

We failed to close above the 200 day and we just got a very bad death cross, both signalling an upcoming hard sell.
We'll see $6000 real soon and i think we'll drop much lower even.

Thoughts? Why has bitcoin failed again to recover? MtGox? Governments? Criminals selling off?

I wouldn't focus too much on TA in that case.
Remember we were going up for 2 years. So we are just retracing for about 3 months now, this is nothing!
Although we know anything can happen with Bitcoin, therefore the honeybadgers decides to moon out of nothing, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more months of consolidation with some minor up and down swings in a range of 6-10k. Even new lows aren't out of question for me.
If you're in for long just hold and wait until the market reverses. So far we're still in a bear market.

Ah yes, just ignore TA. TA is for all those millions of professional loser economists and traders that run the world business and economy.

HODL is the game!
The game that is the bitcoin scam. The scam community has to come up with some hype buzzword to draw in investors and make sure idiots keep buying "low" while early adapters sell at premium ridiculous prices and get filthy rich without ever moving a finger to contribute to society!

Technical analysis has been wrong a billion times in bitcoin. All the analysts that are now playing the "death cross" game called a top of $7500 for 2017, then we went to $20000. A bunch of idiots thought that "professional technical analysts" predictions couldn't fail, but that is exactly what they did, so all of these people now want lower prices to get back, in which group I suspect you belong to.

On a long enough time, your posts will look as stupid as this:



So be careful with these shorts my friend, or you may go bankrupt and not able to buy back the dip, which is what you all obviously want. Anyone that has been here for a couple of years isn't stupid enough to claim "bitcoin is a scam and it's going to die". Translation of that is "please price, go down, I sold and I need to buy back in cheaper".

On the other hand, holders on a long enough timeline can only meet one destiny: to get rich as fuck.

Right, explain to me why i would want to hold something that is outdated so much? You realize Bitcoin is OLD right? It only works for a small group and not as P2P Cash as Satoshi Nakamoto intended it to me.
For that goal we now have several 4th Generation Crypto currencies that scale to hundreds of thousands transactions per second, don't ruin the planets climate, are more secure and have proper governance built in.
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March 22, 2018, 07:49:43 PM
 #25

We failed to close above the 200 day and we just got a very bad death cross, both signalling an upcoming hard sell.
We'll see $6000 real soon and i think we'll drop much lower even.

Thoughts? Why has bitcoin failed again to recover? MtGox? Governments? Criminals selling off?

I wouldn't focus too much on TA in that case.
Remember we were going up for 2 years. So we are just retracing for about 3 months now, this is nothing!
Although we know anything can happen with Bitcoin, therefore the honeybadgers decides to moon out of nothing, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more months of consolidation with some minor up and down swings in a range of 6-10k. Even new lows aren't out of question for me.
If you're in for long just hold and wait until the market reverses. So far we're still in a bear market.

Ah yes, just ignore TA. TA is for all those millions of professional loser economists and traders that run the world business and economy.

HODL is the game!
The game that is the bitcoin scam. The scam community has to come up with some hype buzzword to draw in investors and make sure idiots keep buying "low" while early adapters sell at premium ridiculous prices and get filthy rich without ever moving a finger to contribute to society!

Technical analysis has been wrong a billion times in bitcoin. All the analysts that are now playing the "death cross" game called a top of $7500 for 2017, then we went to $20000. A bunch of idiots thought that "professional technical analysts" predictions couldn't fail, but that is exactly what they did, so all of these people now want lower prices to get back, in which group I suspect you belong to.

On a long enough time, your posts will look as stupid as this:



So be careful with these shorts my friend, or you may go bankrupt and not able to buy back the dip, which is what you all obviously want. Anyone that has been here for a couple of years isn't stupid enough to claim "bitcoin is a scam and it's going to die". Translation of that is "please price, go down, I sold and I need to buy back in cheaper".

On the other hand, holders on a long enough timeline can only meet one destiny: to get rich as fuck.

Right, explain to me why i would want to hold something that is outdated so much? You realize Bitcoin is OLD right? It only works for a small group and not as P2P Cash as Satoshi Nakamoto intended it to me.
For that goal we now have several 4th Generation Crypto currencies that scale to hundreds of thousands transactions per second, don't ruin the planets climate, are more secure and have proper governance built in.

Kwukduck, THAT IS YOU!

I have missed you old friend.  And it is good to hear from you and your "predictions".  Clearly bull market boom times are ahead for BTC since you have confirmed it, in reverse.  Your record is flawless, in the opposite!
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March 22, 2018, 09:28:14 PM
 #26

Recovery from the downward trend is process that require time and positive news in favour of Bitcoin and other altcoins and not the FUD that emanates from different source that has led to panic selling in recent time.
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March 23, 2018, 06:08:32 AM
 #27


Kwukduck, THAT IS YOU!

I have missed you old friend.  And it is good to hear from you and your "predictions".  Clearly bull market boom times are ahead for BTC since you have confirmed it, in reverse.  Your record is flawless, in the opposite!

Hahaha! I was about to make the same post! OK EVERYONE! It is time to start buying this dip. Kwukduck, who is hiding in the not so obvious username "cryptokwuk", has given us the signal of doing the opposite of what he predicts.

Thank you for this, Kwuk. It made my decision to buy this dip easier. Cool

Right, explain to me why i would want to hold something that is outdated so much? You realize Bitcoin is OLD right? It only works for a small group and not as P2P Cash as Satoshi Nakamoto intended it to me.
For that goal we now have several 4th Generation Crypto currencies that scale to hundreds of thousands transactions per second, don't ruin the planets climate, are more secure and have proper governance built in.

"Old" but still ahead of everyone in security and reliability. Plus look! The market also prefers Bitcoin over the rest.

If you want "P2P cash", go use an altcoin like Bitcoin Cash or Dogecoin. No one is stopping you.


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nl247
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March 23, 2018, 07:53:13 AM
 #28

the death cross signal or chart analysis in general isn't any predictive factor for future price development.

in the best case, its a self fulfilling prophecy - in the worst case you gonna loose money due to irrational trading behavior.

just hodl
Very true and the fact that it happened in 2014/2015 does not mean we will end up seeing the same thing happening this time around. The market is not looking bad presently and I would not be surprised to see it breaking some resistances in the coming days.

Moreover, since we had the bounce from the $7k region, it already gave some hope and things are changing fundamentally towards the positive, so we may just see these MAs (50 and 200) never meeting.

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March 23, 2018, 09:13:02 AM
 #29

We failed to close above the 200 day and we just got a very bad death cross, both signalling an upcoming hard sell.
We'll see $6000 real soon and i think we'll drop much lower even.

Thoughts? Why has bitcoin failed again to recover? MtGox? Governments? Criminals selling off?
Bitcoin is well above $6k which was the lowest of the low. So it has recovered, it has not failed to recover as you have suggested.

I agree, we may be seeing $6k soon but that's going to be temporary. The price should again recover to at least $8-9k if the price does hit $6k, but for now, I think it's just a short correction that will stop as soon as the $9.3k resistance is broken.

2018 was never expected to be bullish, anyways.

I mean what else do you expect coming off a year where BTC's price grew 2000%. Do you expect the exact same thing to happen? Come on, obviously there's got to be some profit takers and corrections to consolidate the price to a more reasonable level. And that's exactly what's happening right now. Nothing surprising. But the process is definitely sped up via all the new regulations coming out that is scaring the crap out of traders.

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March 23, 2018, 12:14:08 PM
 #30

We can't say yet but if bitcoin backs to $7k level I think it will crash again up to $6k. I see no more bad news about cryptocurrency aside from banning the advertisements in fact a lot of good news during G20 summit but yeah, it looks like its not able to break the resistance. We can wait for more weeks and I believe it can finally break that wall and go even higher.
Yes, there is no bad news, the atmosphere is gradually changing and I do not see how this would really be the case. Before we even see the 50 and 200MA crossing, we should have seen a huge bounce already in the market with volume kicking in. I do not know, but at least I expect the bulls to be somewhere around the corner, ready to do something.

Moreover, OP kind of guys all should stop all this bullshit with the death cross, it may be looming but does not mean it would happen. We are bouncing and volume can kick in, and at least let it cross first before spreading some unnecessary panic. I know this would not be good because that would cause some panic dump in the market but, I feel we have gotten past this stage already once we show sign of recovery and strength.

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March 23, 2018, 05:45:31 PM
 #31

We failed to close above the 200 day and we just got a very bad death cross, both signalling an upcoming hard sell.
We'll see $6000 real soon and i think we'll drop much lower even.

Thoughts? Why has bitcoin failed again to recover? MtGox? Governments? Criminals selling off?

I wouldn't focus too much on TA in that case.
Remember we were going up for 2 years. So we are just retracing for about 3 months now, this is nothing!
Although we know anything can happen with Bitcoin, therefore the honeybadgers decides to moon out of nothing, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more months of consolidation with some minor up and down swings in a range of 6-10k. Even new lows aren't out of question for me.
If you're in for long just hold and wait until the market reverses. So far we're still in a bear market.

Ah yes, just ignore TA. TA is for all those millions of professional loser economists and traders that run the world business and economy.

HODL is the game!
The game that is the bitcoin scam. The scam community has to come up with some hype buzzword to draw in investors and make sure idiots keep buying "low" while early adapters sell at premium ridiculous prices and get filthy rich without ever moving a finger to contribute to society!

Technical analysis has been wrong a billion times in bitcoin. All the analysts that are now playing the "death cross" game called a top of $7500 for 2017, then we went to $20000. A bunch of idiots thought that "professional technical analysts" predictions couldn't fail, but that is exactly what they did, so all of these people now want lower prices to get back, in which group I suspect you belong to.

On a long enough time, your posts will look as stupid as this:



So be careful with these shorts my friend, or you may go bankrupt and not able to buy back the dip, which is what you all obviously want. Anyone that has been here for a couple of years isn't stupid enough to claim "bitcoin is a scam and it's going to die". Translation of that is "please price, go down, I sold and I need to buy back in cheaper".

On the other hand, holders on a long enough timeline can only meet one destiny: to get rich as fuck.

Right, explain to me why i would want to hold something that is outdated so much? You realize Bitcoin is OLD right? It only works for a small group and not as P2P Cash as Satoshi Nakamoto intended it to me.
For that goal we now have several 4th Generation Crypto currencies that scale to hundreds of thousands transactions per second, don't ruin the planets climate, are more secure and have proper governance built in.

No such thing as better than Bitcoin, so no, Bitcoin is not outdated, and no, none of these "4th generation crypto currencies" (whatever this shit means) offer anything worth anyone's time. I guess you are stupid enough to have fallen for the IOTA scam and any other of these DAG, DPoS or whatever other scams which pretend to be viable replacements for pure PoW. This explains everything. Well, what can I say? other than sorry for your loss.

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March 23, 2018, 11:21:38 PM
 #32

Technical analysis has been wrong a billion times in bitcoin.

It's wrong no more often in Bitcoin than other markets, especially now that we have a more liquid market. The problem is that most people (especially novices and laypeople) assume that TA is predictive. It is not, at least not outside the scope of generalized probability.

A chart setup will always fail a significant amount of the time. Trading successfully is about quickly cutting the losses from those failures while maximizing the gains (letting your winners run, rolling stops up).

All the analysts that are now playing the "death cross" game called a top of $7500 for 2017, then we went to $20000. A bunch of idiots thought that "professional technical analysts" predictions couldn't fail, but that is exactly what they did, so all of these people now want lower prices to get back, in which group I suspect you belong to.

That's probably not true. "Golden crosses" and "death crosses" are long term lagging indicators. Nobody who trades based on them would have called a top at $7,500.

Maybe what you say is true of permabears, but then your bone to pick is with permabears, not TA.

the death cross signal or chart analysis in general isn't any predictive factor for future price development.

in the best case, its a self fulfilling prophecy - in the worst case you gonna loose money due to irrational trading behavior.

I don't like to think of it as predictive. It's a lagging observation of cyclical trends. A death cross after long term bullish trending just means that price is no longer recovering during bearish/corrective cycles as before. That can indicate a marked change to the trend. It doesn't necessarily mean doom, but it's one indicator that an uptrend is no longer intact.

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March 23, 2018, 11:58:39 PM
 #33

the death cross signal or chart analysis in general isn't any predictive factor for future price development.

in the best case, its a self fulfilling prophecy - in the worst case you gonna loose money due to irrational trading behavior.

just hodl

Ah, finally somebody who gets it.

As others began to explain, BTC is not beholden to the trader psychology theories that underpin classical technical analysis. That's because its not a stock or a commodity -- its essence is digital and its nature is changing all the time.

BTC has a price ceiling which is determined by its average transaction fee. If the ave tx fee goes too high, BTC loses its intrinsic value as a currency and is no longer competitive. That doesn't happen with commodities. The amount it costs to trade gold is always flat regardless of its price or current popularity.
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March 24, 2018, 12:16:51 AM
 #34

As others began to explain, BTC is not beholden to the trader psychology theories that underpin classical technical analysis. That's because its not a stock or a commodity -- its essence is digital and its nature is changing all the time.

"Its essence is digital?" If I say the essence of gold is metal, does that tell you something about how the gold market moves? I don't think so. What does it have to do with anything? The nature of Bitcoin is not changing all the time. It's rather society's opinion towards it that changes. This boils down to markets.

It's very simple: Bitcoin is bought and sold like anything else. The market is necessarily determined by supply and demand, like any other market. Why would it be immune to market dynamics, the understanding of which underpins TA?

BTC has a price ceiling which is determined by its average transaction fee. If the ave tx fee goes too high, BTC loses its intrinsic value as a currency and is no longer competitive. That doesn't happen with commodities. The amount it costs to trade gold is always flat regardless of its price or current popularity.

Take a chart of median/average transaction fees paid over time. Then lay the chart over a Bitcoin price chart for the same period.

Seems like the opposite is true. As fees rise, so does Bitcoin's price.

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March 24, 2018, 12:39:28 AM
 #35

"Its essence is digital?" If I say the essence of gold is metal, does that tell you something about how the gold market moves? I don't think so. What does it have to do with anything? The nature of Bitcoin is not changing all the time.

Actually it is. Recently a new version of Core was released that contained some upgrades that helped scale bitcoin and reduce tx fees.

Why would it be immune to market dynamics, the understanding of which underpins TA?

For most of its history it wasn't and its rise has been uniquely spectacular. However, when the price goes higher, the ave tx fee is bound to simultaneously increase, due to people shelling out more BTC to speed through a transaction. Trading stocks and bonds and commodities doesn't work this way. Most trade brokers offer a flat trading fee -- it doesn't change with the price of the security being traded.


Take a chart of median/average transaction fees paid over time. Then lay the chart over a Bitcoin price chart for the same period.

Seems like the opposite is true. As fees rise, so does Bitcoin's price.

Okay so I did what you asked. BTC reached its all-time high on 12-10-17. The all-time high for fees was on 12-20. So what was your point again?

Anybody can read anything however they want to and make a compelling argument for their prediction. I believe bitcoin's upward potential is limited by an increasing non-competitiveness in transaction fees, which means its intrinsic value morphs according to its price, or adjustments made to the Core client.

That's why its different from anything that's ever been traded before: first of all, unlike most things that are traded, it was built to be traded. It just so happens that because of the way it works, as it becomes more popular and the system gets strained, people have to pay more $$ to rush their transaction into the next block. This causes it to lose some of its innate value as a currency. That's what its for. It's not meant for speculation. Then again, most things that are traded aren't.
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March 24, 2018, 01:06:22 AM
 #36

"Its essence is digital?" If I say the essence of gold is metal, does that tell you something about how the gold market moves? I don't think so. What does it have to do with anything? The nature of Bitcoin is not changing all the time.

Actually it is. Recently a new version of Core was released that contained some upgrades that helped scale bitcoin and reduce tx fees.

How does that change the "nature of Bitcoin?" A new version may affect the network's prospects for scale and adoption (fundamentals), the perception of which affects supply and demand. So what? Like all markets, everything boils down to supply and demand.

Why would it be immune to market dynamics, the understanding of which underpins TA?

For most of its history it wasn't and its rise has been uniquely spectacular. However, when the price goes higher, the ave tx fee is bound to simultaneously increase, due to people shelling out more BTC to speed through a transaction. Trading stocks and bonds and commodities doesn't work this way. Most trade brokers offer a flat trading fee -- it doesn't change with the price of the security being traded.not meant for speculation. Then again, most things that are traded aren't.

If transaction fees rise over time, why does it follow that TA doesn't apply to Bitcoin?

If stock brokers have flat fees, why does it follow that TA doesn't apply to Bitcoin?

Take a chart of median/average transaction fees paid over time. Then lay the chart over a Bitcoin price chart for the same period.

Seems like the opposite is true. As fees rise, so does Bitcoin's price.

Okay so I did what you asked. BTC reached its all-time high on 12-10-17. The all-time high for fees was on 12-20. So what was your point again?

Um, peaking only 10 days apart just proves my point.

  • Both fees and price significantly trended upwards throughout 2017.
  • After both fees and price peaked in December, they trended downwards throughout 2018.

You argued that fees had a negative correlation to price. Any data to support that? Because you're ignoring an obvious and established correlation which suggests the opposite.

Anybody can read anything however they want to and make a compelling argument for their prediction. I believe bitcoin's upward potential is limited by an increasing non-competitiveness in transaction fees, which means its intrinsic value morphs according to its price, or adjustments made to the Core client.

You're saying that demand is limited by fees. I get it. The idea is not intuitively wrong if Bitcoin's only value is cheap fees (I disagree). Anyway, I was just pointing out that the evidence isn't there.

That's why its different from anything that's ever been traded before: first of all, unlike most things that are traded, it was built to be traded.

No it wasn't. It was built to remove trusted third parties from financial transactions.

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March 24, 2018, 07:07:22 AM
 #37

You argued that fees had a negative correlation to price. Any data to support that? Because you're ignoring an obvious and established correlation which suggests the opposite.

No, I didn't. We're actually in agreement on this. Its just that you said price follows fee and I'm saying its the other way around.

You're now just arguing with me for argument's sake.
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March 24, 2018, 10:24:58 AM
 #38

We failed to close above the 200 day and we just got a very bad death cross, both signalling an upcoming hard sell.
We'll see $6000 real soon and i think we'll drop much lower even.

Thoughts? Why has bitcoin failed again to recover? MtGox? Governments? Criminals selling off?

My thought won’t be as negative that anyone does. It isn’t failing to recover, it does recovered in a slight and slowly phase that is different from than the much faster happened last year. Mtgox is already a done controversial news and happened to be used in FUDs to strongly crash the market. They have given an statement regarding this issue and that’s good enough.
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March 24, 2018, 06:32:46 PM
 #39

Now that we're in a situation where there is not even a single day of bad news. Perhaps, it is the games of governments. Isn't it strange that you have bad news every day? I don't know what to do anymore.
Who even cares? Let the death cross happen, and then we will be gladly buying more at the end of the day. This is just a way to panic some people in the market, but from the look of things and the news going on, I want to believe that we are going to have good times ahead of us from the bounce we already had. It is just plain stupid for anyone to be panicking right now when the market is about to set off for another bull run.

As much as I believe that the 50 and 200MA will not cross on the daily chart, one must also be ready to get careful in the market as things are presently. I am very optimistic though that we won't get to see any doom, but if that happens, I am so sure, the bear rally is going to be a huge one, and that is one that would set us way down lower. Let's just see how this would suffice in coming days.

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March 24, 2018, 07:13:03 PM
 #40

I think we guys shouldn't let mathematics to fool us. Bitcoin is returning to sane levels and consolidating. Its not losing confidence or trust. Every pther price drop gives us good entry point so I am waiting like 'hunter' to accumulate more bitcoin.

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