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Author Topic: The DEATH CROSS is in. How low will we go?  (Read 454 times)
exstasie
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March 24, 2018, 07:41:35 PM
 #41

You argued that fees had a negative correlation to price. Any data to support that? Because you're ignoring an obvious and established correlation which suggests the opposite.

No, I didn't. We're actually in agreement on this. Its just that you said price follows fee and I'm saying its the other way around.

You're now just arguing with me for argument's sake.

Well now you're just confusing things. I didn't say price follows fees. That would imply causation. I merely said there was a correlation between BTC price and transaction fees that is at odds with your theory.

You actually went further than mere correlation. You argued they have a causal relationship (higher fees causes lower price):

BTC has a price ceiling which is determined by its average transaction fee. If the ave tx fee goes too high, BTC loses its intrinsic value as a currency and is no longer competitive.
I believe bitcoin's upward potential is limited by an increasing non-competitiveness in transaction fees

I don't believe BTC price and transaction fees have a causal relationship. I believe the correlation exists because higher demand = higher price, and higher demand = higher network activity. So price and average fees rise together, but one doesn't cause the other. They are both caused by spikes in demand to own/use BTC.

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March 24, 2018, 10:31:19 PM
 #42

Someone is nervous. This lion you can't kill so easily. Waiting for more panic and it will turn over again.
Up and down we go as always.
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March 26, 2018, 04:42:01 PM
 #43

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

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March 26, 2018, 06:03:50 PM
 #44

I'm not worried about the future. Bitcoin is a very good idea. She can't go anywhere. Now many potential investors are ready to buy bitcoin but they are afraid that bitcoin will never become a currency and will forever remain a speculative asset. Without bitcoin upgrades, we should not expect price increases. To increase prices, you need to forget about the legalization of bitcoin and Fiat.
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March 26, 2018, 08:37:35 PM
 #45

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

I think it's pretty clear by now what this signal means.
LOL.
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March 26, 2018, 09:21:28 PM
 #46

During the last DEATH CROSS, the price of BTC was 250 USD (2015 summer). Sınce than 50 days EMA have never been under 200 days EMA. At the moment the cross is very very close. Maybe 2-3 more days if the fall continues like this.
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March 26, 2018, 09:22:43 PM
 #47

I think we guys shouldn't let mathematics to fool us. Bitcoin is returning to sane levels and consolidating. Its not losing confidence or trust. Every pther price drop gives us good entry point so I am waiting like 'hunter' to accumulate more bitcoin.

It took only a couple of days for the trend to totally reverse and for Bitcoin to go below $8,000. We do seem to be at an inflection point - it is very much possible that we drift lower towards $6,000 as predicted by the 'death cross'. If we do consolidate at this stage, it could be a nice spring board for the next bull rally.


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March 26, 2018, 09:32:12 PM
 #48

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

Sorry my friend but you are wrong. Many technical analysts use the golden cross and the death cross as a buy/sell signal for bitcoin and even for ether.
Please look at the name you will understand what does it means.
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March 27, 2018, 06:57:26 AM
 #49

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

Sorry my friend but you are wrong. Many technical analysts use the golden cross and the death cross as a buy/sell signal for bitcoin and even for ether.
Please look at the name you will understand what does it means.

It does mean we're gonna have a somewhat extended bear market. We might even see sub $4000s / BTC in a few weeks with this downward momentum.


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March 27, 2018, 07:38:06 AM
 #50

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

Sorry my friend but you are wrong. Many technical analysts use the golden cross and the death cross as a buy/sell signal for bitcoin and even for ether.
Please look at the name you will understand what does it means.

It does mean we're gonna have a somewhat extended bear market. We might even see sub $4000s / BTC in a few weeks with this downward momentum.

This could be, but anybody who was willing to sell should have already , didn't they?l
To me it seems like the hype was not into a stage of delirium yet....
7.8-7.9 seems to hold untill now.
Curious how this is going to turn out, if it should revert, next time it won't
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March 27, 2018, 08:08:50 AM
 #51

We failed to close above the 200 day and we just got a very bad death cross, both signalling an upcoming hard sell.
We'll see $6000 real soon and i think we'll drop much lower even.

Thoughts? Why has bitcoin failed again to recover? MtGox? Governments? Criminals selling off?

anyway if i get stuck in a very high coin price then i will still keep my coin because if i sell it then surely i will get a lot of losses, i keep confident that the price will surely rise if this goes down this seems only price correction only and still can go back up, patience is very important and highly tested when faced with problems like this.

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March 27, 2018, 08:31:34 AM
 #52

I'm not worried about the future. Bitcoin is a very good idea. She can't go anywhere. Now many potential investors are ready to buy bitcoin but they are afraid that bitcoin will never become a currency and will forever remain a speculative asset. Without bitcoin upgrades, we should not expect price increases. To increase prices, you need to forget about the legalization of bitcoin and Fiat.
I don't think an investor has a concern for Bitcoin being a legal currency but one of its main concern is the price itself. A lot of people who have entered in the cryptocurrency market are newbies and all of them don't have any trading plan and don't know what to do with it. The price movement we are seeing now is the bears dominating the market as everyone is pressured selling their cryptocurrencies in anticipating for a price drop which can occur and all of them are helping it to go down more.

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March 27, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
 #53

Just don't let the hype get you, it's just normal as bitcoin price go up and down, maybe it a bit low now but let put trust bitcoin like we were used to do. I still believe that bitcoin can recover to its normal price sooner or later, we just have to hold like we used to do.

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March 27, 2018, 12:09:20 PM
 #54

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

I think it's pretty clear by now what this signal means.
LOL.

Nothing is clear, that's why it is called a signal. Nothing will become clear until it has actually unfolded. I also did not question what it is meant to signal, I am fully aware of that.


Sorry my friend but you are wrong. Many technical analysts use the golden cross and the death cross as a buy/sell signal for bitcoin and even for ether.
Please look at the name you will understand what does it means.

I understand very well what it means. I know many are using it for bitcoin, but it has not happened yet so how can they know if it will be transitive. It is used far more frequently in stock markets and has shown success as a signal but we do not know yet if it will be transitive to bitcoin. That is why I was asking if it had happened previously. In the end I looked myself, turns out it's happened in 2014 and 2015, in 2014 it was as part of the large crash which many fear this one is mirroring and would suggest we still are going to fall at least a further 50%. In 2015 it was followed by a return to increasing prices for a period and barely signaled anything.

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March 27, 2018, 12:25:25 PM
 #55

The real question here is - how low is enough for serious investors to start buying massively and hence giving a green signal to everybody else? Wink
Is it a matter of timing or just price? This experience shows us how centralized cryptos actually are.

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March 27, 2018, 12:47:16 PM
 #56

hangover, bitcoin needs time to rest the last pump

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March 27, 2018, 02:20:21 PM
 #57

So the current cross of moving averages reminds me about the downside power of the cryptocurrencies. Lets analysis the market and check relations between different financial tools. The whole financial markets currently turned to next cycle which bears have consistence.
Bitcoin is worst more than 40% of marketcap and this death cross on price will result more panic selling on cryptocurrencies.

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exstasie
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March 28, 2018, 06:37:59 AM
 #58

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

Of course it's happened. Bitcoin has been trading on exchanges for 8+ years now. There was a death cross on the 1-day chart in early 2014, but it was actually a bad signal. It happened near a market bottom before a 2-month bull trap. The next death cross in September held for almost a year, though.

I don't know why people make these big distinctions between traditional markets like stocks and Bitcoin. Markets act like markets, no matter the asset.

The real question here is - how low is enough for serious investors to start buying massively and hence giving a green signal to everybody else? Wink
Is it a matter of timing or just price? This experience shows us how centralized cryptos actually are.

$3,000-4,000. But it's more a matter of time than price.

dado7
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March 28, 2018, 07:06:07 AM
 #59



The real question here is - how low is enough for serious investors to start buying massively and hence giving a green signal to everybody else? Wink
Is it a matter of timing or just price? This experience shows us how centralized cryptos actually are.

$3,000-4,000. But it's more a matter of time than price.

You think? All right. Seems valid. Where do you expect it to bounce after that?

parobber
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March 28, 2018, 06:29:15 PM
 #60

If I'm not mistaken the death cross is used as a signal in more traditional financial markets like stocks and is a fairly accurate signal but has it ever happened before in crypto that the cross has formed and what was the result of this if it did happen?

Of course it's happened. Bitcoin has been trading on exchanges for 8+ years now. There was a death cross on the 1-day chart in early 2014, but it was actually a bad signal. It happened near a market bottom before a 2-month bull trap. The next death cross in September held for almost a year, though.

I don't know why people make these big distinctions between traditional markets like stocks and Bitcoin. Markets act like markets, no matter the asset.

The real question here is - how low is enough for serious investors to start buying massively and hence giving a green signal to everybody else? Wink
Is it a matter of timing or just price? This experience shows us how centralized cryptos actually are.

$3,000-4,000. But it's more a matter of time than price.

Yeah, I checked it out myself in the end because I was too impatient to wait for a response. a 50% accuracy rate isn't all that great for people to be putting so much faith in to it as a predictor.

$3k-$4k would be in line with the 2014 dip in terms of a percentage fall. In that scenario it took just over a year from top to bottom and a further 2 years to recover. I don't think we'll experience such a long downturn again but if we do it's going to get very painful for many.

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