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[swogerino]

Another upset win by Morocco, ooofff

With all these upsets happening, I think this will be the best worldcup ever for bookmakers lol. Didn’t see the loss of Portugal and Brazil but that is how it goes in soccer sometimes.
Just won another 5000 RP with my WOF, one step closer again to reach the 100,000k mark!

This was the world cup which had the biggest number of upsets and I think bookies are very happy while bettors like us have taken a huge hit and most likely most of us are in big red by playing sport betting for the world cup event,personally I can't wait for it to end so we can restart the major soccer leagues and the Champions League,I am sure that we never so far have seen so many upsets and they are club teams not nationals which in national teams surprises should be less and less but from this world cup we saw that they are more and more.

Congrats on those 5000 RP.

[soslex]

The time weight multiplier doesn't always increase the winning amount.

Assume that the prize pool is 1 BTC and there are 100 winners.
If there was no time weight multiplier, each of the winners would get 0.01 BTC.
The time weight multiplier makes the profit of those who placed their bet early more than 0.01 BTC and those who placed their bet late less than 0.01 BTC.

Are you sure about this? Your example assumes every winner who placed a bet placed the exact same bet amount, which is a pretty big assumption to make. Anyway, I was under the impression the time weight multiplier always gave a boost to the final outcome odds, it just gives less of a boost to those who bet late.

If someone knows the formula freebitco.in uses to calculate the betting payouts, it would be greatly appreciated if they could post it.

[Saint-loup]

Yes slaman29 but you shouldn't forget the Time Weight Multiplier which gives you a boost on the final odds, even when it is already low.

The time weight multiplier doesn't always increase the winning amount.

Assume that the prize pool is 1 BTC and there are 100 winners.
If there was no time weight multiplier, each of the winners would get 0.01 BTC.
The time weight multiplier makes the profit of those who placed their bet early more than 0.01 BTC and those who placed their bet late less than 0.01 BTC.

Are you sure about that? Your example is very theoretical, but in reality have you already received one time winnings lower that what you should get from the final odds? I don't remember having already seeing that. I don't know how odds are calculated precisely but they take that into account IMO, that's why the cut is high at the end, and even bets with the smallest TMWs are not paid less than the final odds.  

Edit: Soslex shares the same opinion apparently

[hosseinimr93]

Anyway, I was under the impression the time weight multiplier always gave a boost to the final outcome odds, it just gives less of a boost to those who bet late.

If that was the case, the house would lose money.

Assume that there's a match between teams A and B.
All the money that has been put on team A is 100 BTC and all the money that has been put on team B is 300 BTC. You have put 0.01 BTC on team A.
The total money is 400 BTC. 5% of that 400 BTC goes to the house and 95% of that goes to the winners. So, the prize pool is 380 BTC.

Team A wins the match and they should give your prize.
Assuming there is no time weight multiplier, you will get 380 * (0.01/100) = 0.038 BTC

If you have placed your bet early, you will get more than 0.038 BTC. Ask yourself where does the extra money come from.
The extra money comes from those winners who have placed their bet late.
If the house increase the winning amount of those who have placed their bet early without decreasing the winning amount of those how have placed their bet late, they will lose money and that's not possible.

[bitcampaign]

Another upset win by Morocco, ooofff

everyone will not be surprised to see it, morocco is the best now they can advance to the semi-finals of the world cup and of course it will be history for their team, it is worth admitting that they are the seeded team now they are no longer the underdog team like before, that's how football sometimes isn't always a great country that can survive in the world cup sometimes can be eliminated at the start, always a lot of surprises in this world cup

[soslex]

Anyway, I was under the impression the time weight multiplier always gave a boost to the final outcome odds, it just gives less of a boost to those who bet late.

If that was the case, the house would lose money.

Assume that there's a match between teams A and B.
All the money that has been put on team A is 100 BTC and all the money that has been put on team B is 300 BTC. You have put 0.01 BTC on team A.
The total money is 400 BTC. 5% of that 400 BTC goes to the house and 95% of that goes to the winners. So, the prize pool is 380 BTC.

Team A wins the match and they should give your prize.
Assuming there is no time weight multiplier, you will get 380 * (0.01/100) = 0.038 BTC

If you have placed your bet early, you will get more than 0.038 BTC. Ask yourself where does the extra money come from.
The extra money comes from those winners who have placed their bet late.
If the house increase the winning amount of those who have placed their bet early without decreasing the winning amount of those how have placed their bet late, they will lose money and that's not possible.

Thanks for the explanation.

I think the extra money that you're talking about comes from a reduction in the outcome odds. Take a look at a recent event on freebitco.in, for example, the England vs. France quarterfinal game. 65% of the money was placed on France, and 35% on England. So you would expect the odds to be (1.0/0.65) = 1.54 for France and (1.0/0.35) = 2.85 for England. But the actual odds were much less for both teams, 1.31 for France and 2.10 for England.

So, it seems to me that the TWM always does boost the odds, and this extra money comes from a reduction in the outcome odds.

[hosseinimr93]

So, it seems to me that the TWM always does boost the odds, and this extra money comes from a reduction in the outcome odds.

I understand you, but whatever odds they show there, it doesn't change the fact that those who bet late don't really get any bonus and the time factor is against them.
Those who place their bet late would get better odds if the odds didn't depend on time and there was no time weight multiplier at all.

[STT]

In a system balanced by people themselves the cut remains the same for the bookmaker or site such as this.  The greater amount of upsets in the worldcup just means I think the smaller countries and the people who bet those teams did better then most occurrences of the world cup.  Obviously its usually the biggest teams with the most money invested who consistently get the highest places.   I've never heard of Morocco being this good but its nice to have a surprise not a script to every game surely, it must help audience figures.

If the house increase the winning amount of those who have placed their bet early without decreasing the winning amount of those how have placed their bet late, they will lose money and that's not possible.

I used to bet on a site where the  majority of money was placed in the last five minutes, everything was left open and unrestrained.  It was chaos and the odds vastly changed as there was no warnings and some of those last betters underestimated how little money was on this little site so they got tiny odds.   I benefited as I often went underdog and won possibly with giant odds.   This system here is far better to reward at least something to early betters, its healthy and ultimately encourages more betting from stability in the odds.
(why do people wait, event news and maybe last minute illness is quite possible also naturally people start watching, etc.)

[Strongkored]

Another upset win by Morocco, ooofff

everyone will not be surprised to see it, morocco is the best now they can advance to the semi-finals of the world cup and of course it will be history for their team, it is worth admitting that they are the seeded team now they are no longer the underdog team like before, that's how football sometimes isn't always a great country that can survive in the world cup sometimes can be eliminated at the start, always a lot of surprises in this world cup

Morocco remain underdogs even though they can make it to the semifinals but when they face France in the semifinals I don't think they will be able to withstand the onslaught of France, their defensive system will make it difficult for them, what might be no less surprising is that the final of this World Cup will be the same as the final 4 years ago in Russia, Croatia vs France and it will be a good time for Croatia to take revenge.

[slaman29]

Yes slaman29 but you shouldn't forget the Time Weight Multiplier which gives you a boost on the final odds, even when it is already low. If you take that into account odds can be higher than other bookmakers for some outcomes. Moreover if you hold some FUN tokens you will get a small cashback from your bet, some other sportsbooks are also giving bonus each time you place a bet but not all of them and sometimes the bonus earned is worth nothing, here it's an instant cashback in Bitcoin.

I have taken those into account, and tried betting on the early ones, but I still don't see them as advantageous. In the examples I gave, you would need an entire "100%" of the odds to make up for that and while it definitely gives you a chance of getting higher odds, it's pretty unpredictable because it still relies on others betting. It's probably good for the underdog but I can't see how it's better for the favorite especially once you've missed the time weight multiplier.

Thanks for all your feedback, I am quite familiar with how it works here and still I am sharing my findings versus other places

I would like someone to prove that it is far more profitable with FUN, weight and all those calculations -- considering other places also give a lot more cashback and bonuses, I think it's just fair to use raw odds. A price boost on my other fav book is immediately 7% minimum boost on odds... 3x becomes 3.3x. I doubt the weight multiplier makes up for it as soslex points out (and again, it requires you bet very very early, so your money is locked for so long).

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[Saint-loup]

So, it seems to me that the TWM always does boost the odds, and this extra money comes from a reduction in the outcome odds.

I understand you, but whatever odds they show there, it doesn't change the fact that those who bet late don't really get any bonus and the time factor is against them.
Those who place their bet late would get better odds if the odds didn't depend on time and there was no time weight multiplier at all.

Yes but it's not relevant to think like that when you place a bet, if odds for one outcome are better than on other sportsbooks or better than you think they should be, who cares if you will get less money than if there was no TWM? Moreover, the closer the event gets, the less likely the odds on Freebitcoin are to change, and the more the odds from bookmakers and from what you can assess yourself are reliable because there is less uncertainty. So there are advantages to betting late too.

[redsun114]

Let's see how things go in the Semi Finals now. I guess Argentina and France will take it to the finals but you never know what the underdogs are capable of.

At some point we need to stop talking about them as underdogs. Maybe people didn't expected them to win, but when a team beats Spain, you should start to consider them as a good team at some point.

Like we are talking about a team that went out of the group stage first, then beat Spain and then they are going to not be able to fight against Portugal? Of course they might have lost, that's understandable, but that doesn't mean that they are terrible or anything, they could have still won, they had that chance. I wouldn't give more than 2.30 or so to them to win for this game, many places gave a lot more because they were still seen as big underdogs for some reason.

[swogerino]

Let's see how things go in the Semi Finals now. I guess Argentina and France will take it to the finals but you never know what the underdogs are capable of.

At some point we need to stop talking about them as underdogs. Maybe people didn't expected them to win, but when a team beats Spain, you should start to consider them as a good team at some point.

Like we are talking about a team that went out of the group stage first, then beat Spain and then they are going to not be able to fight against Portugal? Of course they might have lost, that's understandable, but that doesn't mean that they are terrible or anything, they could have still won, they had that chance. I wouldn't give more than 2.30 or so to them to win for this game, many places gave a lot more because they were still seen as big underdogs for some reason.

I don't think there are anymore underdog lefts,we are in the semi finals and all the teams that have come here so far fully deserve it,I know many will say that Morocco is not at such high levels but they are undoubtedly the best defense of the whole tournament and that has brought them here.

I think though now from the game France vs Morocco mostly France will come out as winners while I am not sure in the other pair that we will see tomorrow night between Argentina and Croatia.

[STT]

Their defensive strategy is a positive and they are not just biased to that strength but especially good at it apparently, Spain was unable to break that defensive stance and so lost because of it.   I wonder if their ability to stop any goal concession will force them into a greater probability for penalties deciding the match.   Its not an easy question to decide which team is best able to win on penalties, whose goalkeeper is the best and even then its far closer to luck then skill.

[babygun]

Let's see how things go in the Semi Finals now. I guess Argentina and France will take it to the finals but you never know what the underdogs are capable of.

At some point we need to stop talking about them as underdogs. Maybe people didn't expected them to win, but when a team beats Spain, you should start to consider them as a good team at some point.

Like we are talking about a team that went out of the group stage first, then beat Spain and then they are going to not be able to fight against Portugal? Of course they might have lost, that's understandable, but that doesn't mean that they are terrible or anything, they could have still won, they had that chance. I wouldn't give more than 2.30 or so to them to win for this game, many places gave a lot more because they were still seen as big underdogs for some reason.

Didn’t saw a lot of games of Morocco (only the one against Belgium) and they are playing good but are we not over estimating them a bit? Spain is a good team but they didn’t convince or really played good also this whole worldcup! Same for the game of Morocco vs Belgium, they played good and deserved to win but Belgium was also extremely weak and didn’t play good at all.

[bitcampaign]

Their defensive strategy is a positive and they are not just biased to that strength but especially good at it apparently, Spain was unable to break that defensive stance and so lost because of it.   I wonder if their ability to stop any goal concession will force them into a greater probability for penalties deciding the match.   Its not an easy question to decide which team is best able to win on penalties, whose goalkeeper is the best and even then its far closer to luck then skill.

so far this world cup has been going on, Morocco has won a penalty shootout against Spain and Croatia won a penalty shootout with Brazil also Argentina won a penalty shootout with the Netherlands, but France during this world cup has not really felt a penalty shootout so it will be easier to be awkward and not confident, therefore I hope there are no penalties for Morocco and France because according to experience it seems that France will lose if the penalty shootout with Morocco

[babygun]

so far this world cup has been going on, Morocco has won a penalty shootout against Spain and Croatia won a penalty shootout with Brazil also Argentina won a penalty shootout with the Netherlands, but France during this world cup has not really felt a penalty shootout so it will be easier to be awkward and not confident, therefore I hope there are no penalties for Morocco and France because according to experience it seems that France will lose if the penalty shootout with Morocco

Why would France loose the penalty shootout? Just because of the fact that Morocco already got one and France not during this worldcup? Sorry to say, but doesn't make sense in my eyes. France is the big favorite to win it and I really think this will be end of Morocco but they have written history already, so fair play to them!

[Strongkored]

so far this world cup has been going on, Morocco has won a penalty shootout against Spain and Croatia won a penalty shootout with Brazil also Argentina won a penalty shootout with the Netherlands, but France during this world cup has not really felt a penalty shootout so it will be easier to be awkward and not confident, therefore I hope there are no penalties for Morocco and France because according to experience it seems that France will lose if the penalty shootout with Morocco

Never going through a penalty shoot-out doesn't mean they won't be able to do it, indeed France has a bad history when it comes to penalty shoot-outs at the 2006 Germany World Cup but that was a long time ago and the players now are different players, and France's ability to never go through a penalty shoot-out is proof that 90 minutes is enough time for them to finish and win the game, maybe the surprises won't happen again in the semifinals but that's probably because football can be so suprising.

[mindrust]

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