The article is really not making much sense, like most of those predictions based on mimicking previous patterns. There's a lot of bullshit in this article, like this sentence:
when you couple that with the fact that bitcoin has been trending steadily lower since the launch of futures, I think that it is a major negative.
There was no other way but go short when the launch started close to the peak. Any trader that hasn't dealt with crypto before would go short after seeing the chart with this 700% rise that we had in November and December. It's not an indicator of anything, and the following statement confirms that.
The market actually pumped when CBOE futures launched. The launch of CME futures did mark the top, but I don't think it's meaningful. As you point out, the market was exuberant already and bound to crash at anytime.
If we look at the evidence thus far, bitcoin reached a death cross in 2015 when it was trading in the $200 range. But in that same year, the bitcoin price more than doubled to nearly $500. Bitcoin hasn’t touched on a death cross since that time.
That's right, TA doesn't work. You're writing this whole article to prove that this death cross is going to be bad for BTC and then you give an example of the last death cross that ended up in the price going up by 300%...
That's a pretty cherry-picked example. Looking at a single data point and extrapolating from it is a great way to be wrong. A golden cross or death cross is just one piece of information to help confirm or deny trade setups. It's just a single lagging trend indicator and should never be relied on alone.
Regarding the above example, a death cross should be more meaningful after a crazy 2+ year bull trend than after 9 months of sideways in a basing market. Context is everything.
As for whether TA works? I've been trading profitably for years. But I think your opinion is common because most people misunderstand how TA should be used. There are no foolproof trade setups. Trading is not about predicting what the market will do. It's about reacting to the market, finding EV+ setups and using risk/reward to edge out profits. It's a grind based in statistics, not a crystal ball reading exercise. The bottom line:
Most traders are losers. 80% or more. TA doesn't just work. TA (when done correctly) just suggests statistically EV+ trades given proper risk management. Even if your charts are good, you will consistently lose money if you can't manage risk.
Ten small winners are easily wiped out by one big loser. That's what most people do. Then they say "TA doesn't work!!!!!!11!" Wrong.
