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Author Topic: Effects of hoarding on trading  (Read 4274 times)
btc_enigma
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October 31, 2013, 11:35:49 AM
 #1

Hi all,

Just last month I went to a site which was selling some tickets and they accepted both bitcoins and fiat currency . In this case, of course I choose to pay via fiat currency because I didnt want to spend my bitcoins. Within a week, bitcoin value went up by 15% !!

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.

I want to know what is general thoughts of the community on this.

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Birdy
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October 31, 2013, 11:40:15 AM
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You could use Bitcoins and rebuy them (at least if it's not too much of a hassle to get them).

I think a lot of people prefer saving their money in Bitcoins instead of trying to spend it though, because they see it more as a good investment.
Also don't forget everyone gets paid in fiat right now, if people got their paycheck in Bitcoins they would use them way more to buy stuff.
And currently Bitcoin has to be hyperdeflationary in order to get a magnitudes higher market cap, another point towards investing instead of spending it.
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October 31, 2013, 03:21:30 PM
 #3

Hi all,

Just last month I went to a site which was selling some tickets and they accepted both bitcoins and fiat currency . In this case, of course I choose to pay via fiat currency because I didnt want to spend my bitcoins. Within a week, bitcoin value went up by 15% !!

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.

I want to know what is general thoughts of the community on this.


From my experience as a merchant that accepts bitcoin your right. When the price is rising rapidly barely anyone is purchasing items from me with BTC. When the price is crashing I get a flood of orders.

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October 31, 2013, 03:22:06 PM
 #4

Hi all,

Just last month I went to a site which was selling some tickets and they accepted both bitcoins and fiat currency . In this case, of course I choose to pay via fiat currency because I didnt want to spend my bitcoins. Within a week, bitcoin value went up by 15% !!

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.

I want to know what is general thoughts of the community on this.


just because the market is 1 BTC = $200 USD at the moment doesn't mean everyone must exchange freely at that rate. You chose not to (you would rather buy BTC with USD), others choose to do so (sell BTC for USD).


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nobbynobbynoob
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October 31, 2013, 03:27:14 PM
 #5

It is beneficial to the Bitcoin community and often more straightforward to buy stuff with bitcoin so I spend some of mine from time to time, almost regardless of the exchange rate. I was spending them freely when the exchange rate was under twelve bucks! Smiley

Using bitcoin for payment then rebuying is a good idea too.

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galbros
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November 01, 2013, 05:49:55 AM
 #6

This is a great question and an issue for any deflationary currency like bitcoin.  If you expect it to be worth more tomorrow, why would you ever spend it today?  This is why I think bitcoin will be more of a store of value rather than a medium of exchange if it is successful.

I agree with the others though that spending bitcoin is the best way to further its adoption, so it is an interesting issue.
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November 01, 2013, 08:12:18 AM
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This is a great question and an issue for any deflationary currency like bitcoin.  If you expect it to be worth more tomorrow, why would you ever spend it today?  This is why I think bitcoin will be more of a store of value rather than a medium of exchange if it is successful.

I agree with the others though that spending bitcoin is the best way to further its adoption, so it is an interesting issue.
Did you ever buy a PC or laptop?
Why did you do that? You could buy a better one for the same money if you wait.

This is more a problem of hyperdeflation than deflation.
But Bitcoin will have to go through hyperdeflation for a while in order to become mainstream.
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November 01, 2013, 08:24:18 AM
 #8

Good to see everybody's thoughts. I agree that until people are still getting paid in fiat which is hugely inflated compared to bitcoin, people would continue to buy using fiat.  Bitcoin gambling website is what I am getting into making ! Ha  Cheesy

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November 01, 2013, 08:40:35 AM
 #9

Ideal is spend all your fiat as fast as you can because of inflationary nature. And if you cant convert all to Bitcoin, then spending fiat has priority for me. Getting paid in Bitcoins would help, I agree

                               
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gaston909
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November 03, 2013, 02:18:49 PM
 #10

Hi all,

Just last month I went to a site which was selling some tickets and they accepted both bitcoins and fiat currency . In this case, of course I choose to pay via fiat currency because I didnt want to spend my bitcoins. Within a week, bitcoin value went up by 15% !!

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.

I want to know what is general thoughts of the community on this.


For tax reasons - it makes more sense for me to convert to BTC and then buy whatever I need. (I am assuming my couple of stored BTC will appreciate in value)
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November 03, 2013, 02:22:48 PM
 #11

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.
If hoarding Bitcoins is good, sellers will want to hoard Bitcoins, which will mean they will offer buyers lower prices for paying in Bitcoins.

Why do gas stations ever sell gas? They know they can wait until tomorrow when the price of gas will be higher due to inflation. Simple reason: The price of gas *today* already takes inflation into account.

Same for Bitcoins. The price of Bitcoins today already takes into account the fact that people want to hoard them.

Or, to put it another way, if you felt this way, why would you ever buy anything with dollars unless you had no choice? Why would you handle dollars at all?

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November 03, 2013, 02:23:56 PM
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Just last month I went to a site which was selling some tickets and they accepted both bitcoins and fiat currency . In this case, of course I choose to pay via fiat currency because I didnt want to spend my bitcoins. Within a week, bitcoin value went up by 15% !!

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.



If you rebuy the spent BTC immediatelly back, there is no reason to not spend Bitcoins. In fact this way you helping your saved BTC gain value and you loose nothing
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November 04, 2013, 08:28:03 AM
 #13

Just last month I went to a site which was selling some tickets and they accepted both bitcoins and fiat currency . In this case, of course I choose to pay via fiat currency because I didnt want to spend my bitcoins. Within a week, bitcoin value went up by 15% !!

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.



If you rebuy the spent BTC immediatelly back, there is no reason to not spend Bitcoins. In fact this way you helping your saved BTC gain value and you loose nothing

This is exactly what I also do, although I have to admit that there's not much (yet) I can buy / have bought with Bitcoins (although not nothing!).

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November 04, 2013, 09:15:22 AM
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"Gresham's Law" Bad money drives out good

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greshams-law.asp


Investopedia explains 'Gresham's Law'
Coins were first made with gold, silver and other precious metals, which gave them their value. Over time, the amount of precious metals used to make the coin decreased because the metals were worth more on their own than when minted into the coin itself. If the value of the metal in the old coins was higher than the coin's face value, people would melt the coins down and sell the metal. Similarly, if a low quality good is passed off as a high quality good, then the market will drive down prices because consumers won't be able to determine the good's real value.

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November 04, 2013, 03:37:14 PM
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I do both, that way both purposes are supported, investment and exchange.

I have a larger holding of coins that I don't ever sell, and a smaller stash that I use from time to time to buy things. I keep them in separate wallets. This works great because, unlike the merchant's experience posted above, I only spend when it's up because then it's like free money. For example on the last runup to $225 I sold off some for a WalMart gift card from eGifter, payable in btc and sent straight to my phone, where they can scan it at the register. I also paid for a Pro upgrade in Word Press for a blog I participate in. So it's not a lot but it's nice to support people that take btc and frankly I get a kick out of it every time I spend some btc, it makes snicker under my breath for some reason.
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November 05, 2013, 02:03:03 AM
 #16

Hi all,

Just last month I went to a site which was selling some tickets and they accepted both bitcoins and fiat currency . In this case, of course I choose to pay via fiat currency because I didnt want to spend my bitcoins. Within a week, bitcoin value went up by 15% !!

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.

I want to know what is general thoughts of the community on this.


From my experience as a merchant that accepts bitcoin your right. When the price is rising rapidly barely anyone is purchasing items from me with BTC. When the price is crashing I get a flood of orders.

Interesting effect.

But... when the value of bitcoin is expected to rise, and therefore the buyer is reluctant to use his bitcoins, the opposite holds for the merchant, he will be more interested to receive bitcoins. The effect should be that his goods are priced lower, balancing the interests of the two parties.

Currently it seems that the merchants see only the usefulness of the transaction, he therefore sells his bitcoins immediately, but this could change when the merchants become aware of the store of value quality of bitcoins.

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November 05, 2013, 05:04:21 AM
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Hoarding is good in moderation as you certainly don't want a flooded market

btc_enigma
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November 05, 2013, 06:25:27 AM
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Hi all,

Just last month I went to a site which was selling some tickets and they accepted both bitcoins and fiat currency . In this case, of course I choose to pay via fiat currency because I didnt want to spend my bitcoins. Within a week, bitcoin value went up by 15% !!

My point is , due to deflation, why would people  spend bitcoin instead of fiat currency to buy regular items like electronics, shoes, groceries etc. I see lots of these sites coming up, but I am not sure what is the volume of business these sites are doing. Of course bitcoin is the currency of choice to buy stuff like drugs and in a decentralized fashion. Would it still make sense for businesses like Amazon (that anyway ask you to enter personal details) to accept bitcoins, seeing that fact the so much hoarding is going on.

I want to know what is general thoughts of the community on this.


From my experience as a merchant that accepts bitcoin your right. When the price is rising rapidly barely anyone is purchasing items from me with BTC. When the price is crashing I get a flood of orders.

Interesting effect.

But... when the value of bitcoin is expected to rise, and therefore the buyer is reluctant to use his bitcoins, the opposite holds for the merchant, he will be more interested to receive bitcoins. The effect should be that his goods are priced lower, balancing the interests of the two parties.

Currently it seems that the merchants see only the usefulness of the transaction, he therefore sells his bitcoins immediately, but this could change when the merchants become aware of the store of value quality of bitcoins.


Nice thought, so the merchants would give a discount if the user paid in bitcoins(compared to equivalent money in fiat). This would give users an incentive to spend their bitcoins rather than use fiat.

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November 06, 2013, 11:24:57 PM
 #19

Nice thought, so the merchants would give a discount if the user paid in bitcoins(compared to equivalent money in fiat). This would give users an incentive to spend their bitcoins rather than use fiat.
Right, but this discount is already built into the price of Bitcoins. If people want to hold and hoard Bitcoins, they'll be willing to pay more dollars for them than they would otherwise and people would only be willing to trade Bitcoins for dollars at a price higher than it would be otherwise. This is already built into the price.

The exchange rate between Bitcoins and dollars already takes into account expected future price changes. To the extent people think Bitcoin will be worth more in the future, they will demand higher prices for it today.

Why do people buy computers today even though they can get them tomorrow for a lower price? Simple -- they demand a lower price today because the fact that they can get a better computer for less in the future makes that computer worth less today. This is already built into the price of computers.

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November 07, 2013, 12:21:50 AM
 #20

Based on the results of this poll: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=148660.0

I tried floating my prices to 10% of cost using MtGox (which is itself effectively a discount if people pay ~10% less to buy BTC practically everywhere else). No increase in sales.

Probably only a 50% or more discount under fiat will get results, despite the majority of poll responses.

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