Arvydas77 (OP)
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 12:24:50 PM |
|
Very interesting article and conclusion. I tend to agree with researchers. Check this out: We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst. In these bubbles, we detect a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth. We model this universal pattern with the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which parsimoniously captures diverse positive feedback phenomena, such as herding and imitation. The LPPLS model is shown to provide an ex-ante warningof market instabilities, quantifying a high crashhazardand probabilistic bracketof the crash time consistent with the actual corrections; although, as always, the precise time and trigger (which straw breaks the camel’s back) being exogenous and unpredictable. Looking forward, our analysis identifies a substantial but not unprecedented overvaluation in the price of bitcoin, suggesting many months of volatile sideways bitcoin prices ahead (from the time of writing, March 2018).
Original source to download full research: https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.05663
|
|
|
|
Xester
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 12:29:55 PM |
|
I have read many predictions and there are always two possible results. Its either bitcoin will go up in value or it will go down. Their evaluation of bitcoin was made in a complex manner and just like our evaluation they said that bitcoin was overvalued and that led to a correction. But in our group we predicted that the normal price for bitcoin is at 10k$ but due to the negative news that floods the net panic selling brought bitcoin down to 6k + $.
|
|
|
|
Arvydas77 (OP)
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 12:52:02 PM |
|
The problem is that we don't have established valuation metrics for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. I will say the only one I trust is actual price to mine 1 BTC. NVT ratio is not good but maybe just for me. This bear market will last more and we could expect to see much lower prices. This piece by Burniske is interesting as well to handle situation of bear market: https://medium.com/@cburniske/handing-your-happiness-to-mr-crypto-market-d655da3927c2![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn-images-1.medium.com%2Fmax%2F2000%2F1%2A_l3YcKUAPEr8Y-53CEgBIw.png&t=665&c=Py8EMnYkJ4rMvQ)
|
|
|
|
Dudeperfect
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 01:11:29 PM |
|
Even if it seems difficult for Bitcoin to rise but still, I am optimistic about recovery from the next month and I am even expecting price to hit a fresh all time high level in this year itself. There are several factors which are affecting the price of Bitcoin and market is still in the last phase of the correction process so I don't think that there is anything to worry about it.
|
|
|
|
Pancheng
Jr. Member
Offline
Activity: 182
Merit: 1
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 01:24:01 PM |
|
Bitcoin price as shown on the graph is dropping but the point is it is pumping while dropping not dramatically dropping as a straight line, it shows that anytime it will revive, and it can pump anytime soon, so all we have is to work while stay tuning with the graph.
|
gscplatform.io ─ ✈ ─ Navigate To The Heart Of A Revolution ▐ █▐▌ICO Presale July 1st, 2018▐▌█▐
|
|
|
First77
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 266
Merit: 32
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 01:27:53 PM |
|
By end of 2018, bitcoin will be known as a high speculative asset which was over talked into pushing its price to $10,000. There is nothing new that Bitcoin can offer and it can go to $20 in the end.
|
|
|
|
leviathon
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 392
Merit: 13
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 06:57:18 PM |
|
Bitcoin will still be the market leader through 2018.
More institutions either accepting Bitcoin or even joining the fray.
You cannot talk about Bitcoin without making mention of its volatile market nature, and although it is a year older and wiser, it will still be a wild ride.
|
|
|
|
wantjokull
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 07:06:30 PM |
|
Even if it seems difficult for Bitcoin to rise but still, I am optimistic about recovery from the next month and I am even expecting price to hit a fresh all time high level in this year itself. There are several factors which are affecting the price of Bitcoin and market is still in the last phase of the correction process so I don't think that there is anything to worry about it.
Yup bitcoin is already on it and as you can all the market is turning green now. This is so fast that as soon as the March month has ended up the new era of the bitcoin begins too. I ma completely positive about the ATH reaching this year end and it could be faster than that as people had choice to invest at lowest possible value and most of them have done it already. So keeping that in mind and with the financial processes ending today the bitcoin seems to b energised completely and is already on the verge of increasing. Not only this but the alts are following the same patterns too. Happy bitcoining!!
|
|
|
|
liseff3
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 07:53:01 PM |
|
Bitcoin is more familiar in society than any other coin, he will continue to fight on the front lines against the obstacles that continue to block. Within these three days bitcoin continues to fall may have something to do with Easter and today the price has gradually increased. I really hope this will be the start of all the upcoming improvements (bigger increase).
|
|
|
|
eminemcookie
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 08:38:10 PM |
|
It could be that bitcoin is highly overvalued currently, similarly it could be that it is ideally valued. In your example were you say that the price could move sideways for many months that would indicate that the price is actually about where it should be instead of bitcoin being overvalued.
|
GIGZI INDEPENDENT WEALTH MANAGEMENT Crowdsale Starts on 23rd November 2018
|
|
|
Reid
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
March 31, 2018, 09:46:32 PM |
|
Wow. They really made it look like it was true. Making predictions that are harder to explain and laws which will not be understood by another ordinary person.
Who knows when an investor will come in. Example is if I am one investor. Should I broadcast to the media or forums that I will be buying a large number just so they could predict it?
It can happen anytime.
|
|
|
|
renes
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 01, 2018, 07:39:57 PM |
|
The more this sideway going on, the more people gonna lose money. For some people that does not matter but this is terrible market for those who always believe it is going to rise next month etc.
|
|
|
|
Coin-1
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2562
Merit: 2261
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 01, 2018, 07:52:55 PM |
|
The authors of this article claim that the price of Bitcoin is overvalued now, but how they can evaluate an information. The value of crypto currency mostly figures out from the balance of an offer and a demand on the markets.
I think that the crypto exchange markets just negatively responds to the trading wars instigated between USA and China in the current time. Therefore I guess that the price of crypto currencies will slowly slide down in the near future.
|
|
|
|
oni4an
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 01, 2018, 07:53:03 PM |
|
All these analyses and predictions about the course crypto divination on the coffee grounds. Bitcoin is always restored after all the problems and bad news, I believe in crypto and you advise)
|
|
|
|
Aleshia696
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 308
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 02, 2018, 02:55:28 PM |
|
Have always found it hard to understand analysis. But this one looks pretty legit. Market is still alive and we can already see some positive movement in market. I believe we will see some positive bounce son.
|
|
|
|
bonballi
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 238
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 03, 2018, 05:21:38 AM |
|
Bitcoin is in the first position in the market and its growth is spreading all over the world. Though, the price right now is not in favour of many people. But, at the end of this year it'll have its full recovery.
|
|
|
|
jrrsparkles
Sr. Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif) ![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif) ![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 2464
Merit: 277
Eloncoin.org - Mars, here we come!
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 03, 2018, 05:25:58 AM |
|
For me it is $50K is coming in 2018.Anyone can see that the sane thing what I am seeing. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) This is just a temporary dump in the price of bitcoin and these also happens in past too so just chill out and buy more bitcoin to get more profits.
|
▄▄████████▄▄ ▄▄████████████████▄▄ ▄██████████████████████▄ ▄█████████████████████████▄ ▄███████████████████████████▄
| ███████████████████▄████▄ █████████████████▄███████ ████████████████▄███████▀ ██████████▄▄███▄██████▀ ████████▄████▄█████▀▀ ██████▄██████████▀ ███▄▄████████████▄ ██▄███████████████ ░▄██████████████▀ ▄█████████████▀ █████████████ ███████████▀ ███████▀▀ | | | Mars, here we come! | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ▄███████████████████▄ ▄█████████████████████▄ ▄███████████████████████▄ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ▀███████████████████████▀ ▀█████████████████████▀ ▀███████████████████▀ ▀███████████████▀ ▀▀███████▀▀ | ElonCoin.org | │ | | .
| │ | ████████▄▄███████▄▄ ███████▄████████████▌ ██████▐██▀███████▀▀██ ███████████████████▐█▌ ████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██▄▄▄▄▄ ███▀░▐███▀▄█▄█▀▀█▄█▄▀ ██████████████▄██████▌ █████▐██▄██████▄████▐ █████████▀░▄▄▄▄▄ ███████▄█▄░▀█▄▄░▀ ███▄██▄▀███▄█████▄▀ ▄██████▄▀███████▀ ████████▄▀████▀█████▄▄ | . "I could either watch it happen or be a part of it" ▬▬▬▬▬ |
|
|
|
Opnsrc
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 11, 2018, 05:51:07 PM |
|
No one can predict the exact forecast of bitcoin or another coin. I think that in 2018 the price of the bitcoin will be more stable and maybe only at the end of the year will grow much
|
|
|
|
BinManR
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 182
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
April 11, 2018, 05:57:11 PM |
|
In my opinion and the news from the prediction of analysts. The market for crypto and bitcoin may move unpredictably with volatility and the market's return to reality is only possible in June. At the current low price, the popularity is spreading and forming many Investors are interested in bitcoin and crypto. That could trigger an outbreak of volatility in the future. However, I am not sure about the time of growth. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
|
|
|
|
total.room
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 30
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 22, 2018, 02:51:50 PM |
|
Saya rasa tidak ada yang bisa memprediksi harga bitcoint yang naik tinggi ataupun turun drastis dari koin lainnya, karna setiap orang pasti memprediksi harga bitcoint selalu stabil,itu hal yang wajar bagi pengguna bitcoin
|
|
|
|
|