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Author Topic: rpietila public diary -- Episode II  (Read 40341 times)
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November 21, 2013, 03:12:46 PM
 #81

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.
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November 21, 2013, 03:22:25 PM
 #82

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

I hope he bought back at a loss already Cheesy


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November 21, 2013, 03:24:54 PM
 #83

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

I hope he bought back at a loss already Cheesy

You can bet he did. He has much experience and knows you always cut your losses when your stop-loss is hit.

Problem is BTC China. Hope he can trade well on that.

I guess I should say that everyone sucks at speculation. I've never heard of a speculator that didn't end up at 0 eventually.

I know too many stories that I can not share (not about Risto, although we have some too).

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November 21, 2013, 03:46:41 PM
 #84

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

If the current technical stock pattern turns out to be a triangle, as was the case back in April, then maybe a midpoint price between the high of 900 and low of 453, equals 676.5. My tactic in this pattern is to buy some more fractions below 675 - if indeed it ever does.
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November 21, 2013, 05:23:18 PM
 #85

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

I hope he bought back at a loss already Cheesy

You can bet he did. He has much experience and knows you always cut your losses when your stop-loss is hit.

Problem is BTC China. Hope he can trade well on that.

I guess I should say that everyone sucks at speculation. I've never heard of a speculator that didn't end up at 0 eventually.

I know too many stories that I can not share (not about Risto, although we have some too).

I have a strategy, which does not involve a stop-loss. It involves a concept called creep from last May. Wink I am still short the coins..

..but I have to say it hurts. Just like it hurt after selling in September and seeing the price go up. When enough people have this realization, perhaps we will see singularity after all.  Shocked
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November 21, 2013, 06:01:29 PM
 #86

You asked for feedback on the dealer network.  In a nutshell, the dealer network is trust-based network of large buyers and sellers, with the trust secured by an escrowed deposit.  Bitcoin is a trustless transfer system.  So I see that the dealer network is to some degree a throwback to a previous era.

However, that observation does not mean that it is not useful.  In fact, Bitcoin only allows trust-free TRANSFER, not EXCHANGE.  And to date all geographically disparate mechanisms of exchange require trust (i.e. the centralized exchange websites).

So from that perspective the dealer network is on par with what we've got.

However, a big difference is that it allows its members to acquire BTC rapidly.  The trust involved allows a member to draw BTC right away, but settle later. 
This has 2 advantages.
1. Timeliness -- do not have to wait for the fiat transfer to arrive and be validated.
2. Volume -- This would allow a member to supply BTC to a buyer whose purchase amount is significantly larger than the outlay of the member himself, by drawing the BTC (perhaps into a personal escrow) and then setting up the wire transfers direct from the buyer to the seller.
 
I think the problem with the dealer network is who is willing to sell?  To avoid fiat transfer slippage during bull markets, members would have to have fiat on exchanges.  But the risk profile of this fiat-on-the-exchange is not dissimilar to BTC on the exchange and may even be worse than BTC in a paper wallet due to counterparty risk.

So the network may have liquidity issues.  However, if the network includes payment processors and other entities that tend to have surplus BTC (perhaps via a selling-only account) you may solve this problem.  But what is the incentive for payment processors to want to be included?  Perhaps lack of slippage or a better exchange rate?



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November 21, 2013, 06:08:41 PM
 #87

I have a strategy, which does not involve a stop-loss. It involves a concept called creep from last May. Wink I am still short the coins..

..but I have to say it hurts. Just like it hurt after selling in September and seeing the price go up. When enough people have this realization, perhaps we will see singularity after all.  Shocked

I agree that the market looks way overbought in regard to the consensus log trend price growth.

However, I will be making additional fractional purchases as circumstances and opportunities permit through at least June 2014.
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November 21, 2013, 08:05:38 PM
 #88

The post is copied from another thread, which has since been locked. Links are not copied yet.

"
Bitcoin is a technology. It is a blockchain-based transaction ledger. There is a limited number of claims to this ledger. These are called satoshis, or bitcoins (10^8 satoshi). We are here to deduce if Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, a Pyramid scheme, a Greater-Fool's-game or just a freely-traded something, subject to markets' whims, resulting in booms, busts, bubbles and crashes.


A) I start with assuming that "Ponzi scheme" option is already refuted beyond doubt.


B) As for "Pyramid scheme", after much deliberation I fail to see the logic, how Bitcoin would qualify. I wonder if we even read the same definitions for a Pyramid scheme:
- Wikipedia
- Investopedia.

The essential qualifications for a pyramid are not met.


C) What has been discussed upthread under the name Pyramid scheme, should more precisely be called Greater-Fool's-game. The essence in this would be that people buy in anticipation of a price rise, without regard of the intrinsic value. If the price is indeed rising, this may suck quite many people in, resulting in a spectacular collapse if the intrinsic value fails to meet the expectations.

It does not matter whether we are talking about Internet stocks with currently negative earnings, tulip bulbs, shares of the Blockchain pie, or something "completely useless" such as modern art. The fact is that people are (in most jurisdictions) free to invent, produce and sell things for whatever price they can gouge in a voluntary market. Also buying at inflated prices is not criminalized.

At most, Bitcoin could be classified in this category.

It has to be noted that this kind of speculative bubbles are almost completely harmless. If the product does not have intrinsic value, its production does not burden the real economy. Every time someone buys the bag at a higher price, another one receives the money. The only way to become bankrupt is to take excessive risk or leverage, which are always very stupid actions and people prone to them cannot be helped unless all banks and casinos are closed.

Unlike Ponzis and Pyramid schemes, which revert to zero when unfolding, speculative bubbles revert to their intrinsic value. There are many Internet stocks that are doing good in Nasdaq, tulip bulbs have a certain price, bitcoins will always have a price and art has its valuation. The real economy lives on quite unaffected of the speculative valuation.


D) It seems that the crux of the matter is, whether Bitcoin/bitcoins have intrinsic value as a currency/money or not. If not, it has been a recurring fad over several years and numerous bubbles, which have repeatedly risen higher and higher. In fact, the numbers we are seeing in the exchanges testify that every day until this week has been a bear trap.

It is hardly possible that Bitcoin would have survived the 2011 bubble if there was not a promise of significant utility. The word promise is important, because money is a high network-effect thing. If I have all the money in the world, it is most likely worth less than half of it. Money tends to be worth the most when it is distributed in a Pareto way.

If all money belongs to a few and others are uniformly poor, the rich cannot employ their money to buy goods and services because the poor are not capitalized to produce them. Similarly the poor cannot buy from the rich because they don't have the money. The (hypothetical and unachievable) situation that everyone has the same amount of money, quickly leads to Pareto distribution (or "worse" top-heaviness, unless the rule of law is present).

Let's think the valuation of Facebook from the user perspective. When Facebook had one user, it was worthless. I would say the value per user grew rather quickly when the earliest users came. Just out of my hat, let's say they valued it at $100 on average. As new users were added, the value for them was initially just above zero (the threshold of joining in is to receive positive value), but the old users' value was increased due to network effects. The more Facebook grew, the more value for everyone. From systems perspective, it should have been obvious that the supermajority of the target segment globally would become users.

The valuation of Facebook in the stock market is $112 billion, which is $95 per monthly active user. If the ownership of the system were possible for everyone in every stage of the adoption process, we would have an ownership distribution curve similar to Bitcoin's. (Now there is some 29-year old geek that owns 24% of all, talk about inequality  Angry ) In both cases, the value is roughly proportional to the number of users, but the issuance is fixed.

Facebook would not have become so valuable if it had not become widespread. Then the investors would have lost their stake. If Bitcoin fails, investors lose likewise. If someone sees the failure before the others and sells out, good for him. It is not a reason to be jailed. This is the basic free stock market operation, nothing new to see there.

Quote
And there is no way to deconcentrate it from the current 90+% of BTC is in a few hands. Thus it can't be a widely accepted currency, because it is not widely held and can't be widely held. By the time 1% of the global population has purchased, it will be priced on the order $30,000+ and then the other 99% won't be able to afford to get much BTC at all. You say that is okay, but it means you impoverish the rest of the world relative to early adopters so the velocity of money would collapse, because very rich people spend a much smaller % of their money than middle class people. The 99% will never go for that arrangement, they will stick with fiat and then the collapse of Bitcoin's bubble will ensue and the stampede to the exits with all trampled and value lost.

Bitcoin is currently distributed in an even theoretically near-optimal scale-invariant Pareto way. Bitcoins can be easily traded in many parts of the world. The free market ensures that they are most optimally distributed, because if someone finds himself with too many bitcoins, he can sell. The one lacking can buy. The distribution of bitcoins is way more efficient and widespread than Facebook stock, and will soon become possible for practically everyone on the planet, which is unprecedented for any investment vehicle or even currency!

We share the vision that the inordinate gains in price drive adoption quicker than the general understanding of Bitcoin spreads. This will lead to a bubble of extraordinary valuation. But that will pop even quicker than it formed and no value will have been lost. The recent examples to be carefully analyzed are the Nasdaq bubble of 1999-2000 and the PM in 1980. Bubbles act as boosters to the underlying. Nasdaq bubble fueled the all-pervasiveness of Internet in the 2000s by providing ample VC money to everyone interested. PM bubble encouraged mining, resulting in tumbling PM prices when the mines started operations a decade later.

The bubble happens when the 2nd % wants to buy. Then it crashes and the 98% can slowly start buying. My father still owns Internet stocks, he only bought them long after the bubble Wink Life and markets go on and do not magically stop at the bubble top. Bitcoin exchange rate will not go to zero, it will go down and provide a spectacular buying opportunity in the wake of mass adoption that will drive the price to its realistic long term value (if there is one).

Quote
I see it can never scale as a currency, thus it has no value to you once the gains stop. Thus you and everyone else will exit and the value will go to near 0. Because only a very small fraction of the market cap is using it for spending.

This can't change, because Bitcoin isn't designed to distribute out to the masses to get them involved in spending it.

Gold is also not used as a currency. Gold is the most salable commodity, meaning that it is the easiest to part with in large quantities. This has been called Money in the past.

As bitcoin grows bigger, it may surpass gold in this regard, or may have already done so. Thought experiment is that a person finds himself in a random place with $1 million worth of gold or bitcoins. How long time and how many % loss he must spend to make the transactions necessary to convert the value to what he needs.

Silver used to be the most hoardable commodity, meaning that it is easiest to accumulate in small increments. Bitcoin has already become the most hoardable thing, proven by tipboxes etc. In long-range applications bitcoins are easier to accumulate than even cash!

There is a reason why the word 'silver' and 'money' are the same in 49 languages.

Quote
Distributing the mining coin rewards to millions of people who download it with one-click will do that.

And the investors can buy from them. So no problem the greed will help then.

Bitcoin is the inverse (converse)!

The investors mine the coins, then the masses are expected to buy them. brain dead design for a coin.

The Russians tried to privatize the communist state wealth directly to the people. The result was 50 million people who owned their share of huge enterprises for a few minutes, until somebody bought it from them at a price of a small bottle of vodka, or a cup of coffee. The companies ended back in oligarch control. It is not optimal, workable or possible for everybody to own a little. It invariably ends in somebody owning it all, and the masses do not get much of a benefit for selling their share. As much as we both would like it, faucets don't work.

In a more theoretical vein, if we assume that the altcoin system is worth $1,000 per user, and the users generate the value for themselves by CPU mining, and the inflation rate mimics gold's 2% APR, then the mining reward is $20 per user per year, and it is indeed a perfect analogy to exchange your monthly reward for a cup of coffee. Hardly a recipe for a stealth mass-adoption.
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November 21, 2013, 09:20:53 PM
 #89

Some of the oldtimers may remember the Haikko Manor summit. I have finally started the production of video material, so let us start with the following trailer (the password: "bitcoin"):

Silvervault presents: Haikko Manor Bitcoin Summit May 2013: The Appetizer
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November 21, 2013, 09:46:08 PM
 #90

Epic! Cheesy Hope to see more soon!
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November 24, 2013, 12:05:07 PM
 #91

It is good to read something concise concerning Bitcoin, and not just random forum talk:

The way the holders have the balls to hold is that they understand what is happening. The world is switching over to secure digital asset ledgers. They are simply unquestionably superior. Since they've already cashed out enough fiat currency to meet their daily needs, the only thing they care about is increasing their share in that asset register.

If you want be able to hold on to your coins, deeper research and thought about the system in the grand sweep of things is essential. Here are some links for deep Bitcoin scholarship:

Money as Memory

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr218.pdf
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1fw3m5/bitcoin_is_memory/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232137.0
http://libertyhq.freeforums.org/fed-economist-predicts-bitcoin-will-end-the-fed-t938-20.html
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=230416.msg2450191#msg2450191
http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/t/31743.aspx

Natural Order

I, Pencil video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYO3tOqDISE
I, Pencil essay: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/I,_Pencil
http://mises.org/journals/scholar/hasnas.pdf
http://faculty.msb.edu/hasnasj/GTWebsite/TIL.PDF
http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/t/8889.aspx
http://archive.freecapitalists.org//forums/t/18619.aspx
Google "FA Hayek, The Fatal Conceit" (book, available in PDF)


Panarchy

Balaji Srinivasan, Silicon Valley's Ultimate Exit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A&t=1m0s
http://athousandnations.com/2009/10/20/towards-youtopia-are-all-public-good-providers-earthbound/
http://www.panarchy.org/knott/bitcoin.html


Economics

Google "Economics in One Lesson" (book, available in PDF)
http://mises.org/Books/humanaction.pdf (PDF)


Also look into the revolutionary nature of:

- P2P

- Open Source

- Cryptography


Summaries

http://evoorhees.blogspot.ch/2013/05/bitcoin-2013-role-of-bitcoin-as-money.html
http://konradsgraf.squarespace.com/storage/On%20the%20Origins%20of%20Bitcoin%20Graf%2023.10.13.pdf
http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/p/32931/512864.aspx
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=230416.msg2450191#msg2450191


Future Applications

Mike Hearn's 2012 talk: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD4L7xDNCmA
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November 24, 2013, 05:29:34 PM
 #92

There may be some gray areas between the definition of a Network and a Ponzi-scheme but I believe Bitcoin is a protocol so calling Bitcoin a Ponzi-scheme is a point I quickly move past.

What you believe is much less relevant than what ends up being in reality. I bet Charles Ponzi feigned innocence through certain beliefs. I rebutted Risto. If anyone feels they have a useful argument to make, PM me and I will unlock the linked thread. I locked it because of the useless, noisy "you are just sore because you didn't buy Bitcoin" butt hurt spam (hilarious butt hurt form). Cheers.

There is a lot of noise in that thread. In the end with Ponzi, if you you were holding 'physical' you could still mail a letter Wink
Ponzi's problem were promises he made based on leverage. Currently the price of Bitcoin is extremely leveraged by speculators which explains the volatility. Ponzi's scheme lasted a little over a year and his problem was that he could not deliver on his promises and ultimately could not repay that which he borrowed. His arbitrage methods were essentially legal.

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November 24, 2013, 08:29:05 PM
 #93

Please feel free to add to that. It's just a few links so far, but I've seen many more that I forgot about and will have to dig up later. This might be a good addition for the natural order section, or perhaps summary.

Here's another, perhaps belonging in the panarchy section: Bitcoin and Unbreakable Law. Excerpt:

Quote
Imagine that you were entertaining a business deal with a man with an supernatural ability to make two kinds of promises: 1) promises that are impossible for him to break and 2) ordinary, breakable promises. Why would you accept anything other than the unbreakable promises from him? If he offered to make  breakable promises you might grow suspicious about his intent.

It’s easy to see how unbreakable promises would be a revolution for contracts and law. Enforcement costs for contracts would be drastically reduced. It would enable a new era of globalization, allowing people to participate in contracts with each other without regard to jurisdiction. The rights promised to a citizen of a country could be guaranteed instead of relying on the benevolence and caprice of their sovereign.

This is why I find Bitcoin so exciting. Sending someone a bitcoin is like making a promise that can’t be broken because the rules governing the transfer of bitcoins are secured by cryptographic algorithms which cannot be broken. Bitcoin is a system of rules for the accounting and transfer of property rights in a way that is completely verifiable and unforgeable. The regulation and enforcement of property rights is a big portion of what governments do so bitcoin opens the door to more efficient and trustable decentralized forms of governance.
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November 24, 2013, 08:52:11 PM
 #94

Please feel free to add to that. It's just a few links so far, but I've seen many more that I forgot about and will have to dig up later. This might be a good addition for the natural order section, or perhaps summary.

Here's another, perhaps belonging in the panarchy section: Bitcoin and Unbreakable Law. Excerpt:

Quote
Imagine that you were entertaining a business deal with a man with an supernatural ability to make two kinds of promises: 1) promises that are impossible for him to break and 2) ordinary, breakable promises. Why would you accept anything other than the unbreakable promises from him? If he offered to make  breakable promises you might grow suspicious about his intent.

It’s easy to see how unbreakable promises would be a revolution for contracts and law. Enforcement costs for contracts would be drastically reduced. It would enable a new era of globalization, allowing people to participate in contracts with each other without regard to jurisdiction. The rights promised to a citizen of a country could be guaranteed instead of relying on the benevolence and caprice of their sovereign.

This is why I find Bitcoin so exciting. Sending someone a bitcoin is like making a promise that can’t be broken because the rules governing the transfer of bitcoins are secured by cryptographic algorithms which cannot be broken. Bitcoin is a system of rules for the accounting and transfer of property rights in a way that is completely verifiable and unforgeable. The regulation and enforcement of property rights is a big portion of what governments do so bitcoin opens the door to more efficient and trustable decentralized forms of governance.

I'd like to add this:

http://prezi.com/vfdcr18qie2w/decentralized-society-and-bitcoin-contracts/

It's a slide show regarding the work ahead when thinking about a completely decentralized society.
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November 24, 2013, 09:06:24 PM
 #95

That is good. I was hoping people would use Prezi more. It's a great tool for visual wikis and you can make one very large one and use it to make a whole series of videos discussing a topic.
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November 26, 2013, 12:43:16 PM
 #96

Meanwhile I write about the positive case of Bitcoin revolutionizing the world of money, like Internet revolutionized the world of information:

That confirms my expectation of a price peak 2015 +/- 1 year, i.e. I don't expect we make it to 2017 before Bitcoin's bubble has collapsed. This is my opinion. No way Bitcoin makes it to $1 million per BTC, because that would be a $20 trillion market cap which is much larger chunk of the global net worth than I think is realistic for what what I view to be an irrational mania not supported by fundamental value of a currency.

You told some time back that you would not sell your experience to me at any cheap price. What part of your experience is only valuable in the context of Internet? What would you say is the value of Internet to you, or to an average person?

As for me, I am able to live without a good health. I would pay much to gain one, though.

But I don't own a house, have a car, or TV, or coffee maker, even though I could buy those things. They are negative value to me.

Without Internet, the world would go back to information repression. Dark ages. Let's say I value the freedom of Internet to $1 million. In actuality I value it much more, because instead of going to work, I spend my days solidifying the Internet by posting valuable free information there. I would make much more money than $1 million by going to work and scheming something that profits me in the expense of others.

I think Bitcoin brings even more important things to the game than Internet. It is the coercion-free money (transfer protocol) of the Internet, and capable of bringing such abundance and freedom that the oppressive structures of the world would just lose their grip. Vote, or exit. Bitcoin enables exit in actuality for large groups of brilliant people, whereas PM's only enabled exit for very few (like you and me), and those could not leverage their exit any way. Internet enabled exit for VC investors (pun), but their money sits in the controlled financial instruments. Bitcoin is the most important exit, considering everything that has been available so far.

So what is my net worth calculation? Health. Knowledge. Most of the other things are worth zero (and for this reason I don't have them). Oh yes, and some financial wealth, most of it in bitcoins.
 
Is it so difficult to think that the Internet is worth a double-digit percentage of the world? The world is valued at $400T, which does not include Internet. I cannot easily dream how Bitcoin protocol in practicality changes the world (any more than I was able to grasp how many industries were revolutionized by Internet before it started to happen), but I can say that $6T, gold's market cap, is only realistic in the case that Bitcoin does not turn out to be more than digital gold.

If it really takes off, it makes most of the valued structures in the world obsolete (the same way as I sold the cars and did not buy a TV even for free). The real limit (in mathematical sense, limit is the absolute upper bound) for Bitcoin's value is more than 50% of the world.

In Old Testament times, the property rights of land could not be enforced, or were not applicable in cases that land was only used for herding. The technology was uniform and there was no capital stock (material or immaterial). The wealth of people consisted of cattle, salt, cloths and garments, and gold and silver. The gold and silver accounted for more than half of all the wealth (including land!).

Perhaps we are entering in an age where most of people's wealth is again in most hidable, most protable, most usable form, as the industrial age and its huge capital requirements give way to Internet based businesses with immaterial capital, capital which can be created directly from knowledge, by mixing in only a trivial amount of money, which is ubiquituous anyway.

Soon everybody is so rich that money will only be used to buy groceries. The more interesting things of this life will not be (able to be) bought with money, any more than they are now. The difference is that nobody will be out of groceries Smiley
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November 27, 2013, 08:08:58 AM
 #97

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.

Ouch. Did you buy back?

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November 27, 2013, 08:14:55 AM
 #98

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.

Ouch. Did you buy back?

This should be known to you already. Possibilities are:

1. I get to buy back the same amount cheaper.
2. I get to cash out the money enough for retirement+ride the freebies.

It has not even visited the #1 territory so I guess it is #2 then.  Grin


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November 27, 2013, 08:35:23 AM
 #99

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.

Ouch. Did you buy back?

This should be known to you already. Possibilities are:

1. I get to buy back the same amount cheaper.
2. I get to cash out the money enough for retirement+ride the freebies.

It has not even visited the #1 territory so I guess it is #2 then.  Grin

Of course I had assumed this and assumed I was having an effect on you, or perhaps it was just serendipity Smiley

I am happy if I rescued a friend.

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November 27, 2013, 09:01:26 AM
 #100

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.

Ouch. Did you buy back?

This should be known to you already. Possibilities are:

1. I get to buy back the same amount cheaper.
2. I get to cash out the money enough for retirement+ride the freebies.

It has not even visited the #1 territory so I guess it is #2 then.  Grin




#2 is pretty good too, and quite necessary. Enjoy.

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