rpietila public diary -- Episode II

[rpietila]

Introduction

Satoshi started to run Bitcoin software 3.1.2009. In the first weeks, the community of bitcoin users numbered only a handful. The first BTC/USD transaction was 5,000 bitcoins for $5, ($0.000,001/mBTC). All the bitcoins of the world were valued at $100 at those prices.

Currently bitcoin is well established in several exchanges with large daily trading volumes. The exchange rate is now about $1/mBTC, and all the bitcoins are valued at $13 billion.

Bitcoin is the first thing in the history of the world whose value has appreciated this much (a millionfold) this quickly (less than 5 years).
This is making many ask the question -
What is this phenomenon called Bitcoin?


About rpietila

I have a long-term interest in Economics and it was also my major in Aalto University (formerly Helsinki University of Technology). This has led me to pursue a career of "private finance". I was previously interested in silver as the lynchpin of the global monetary economy. I am Founder and Partner in several investment silver dealerships.

I had known about Bitcoin in 2010 and we had arranged debates in our investment club, whether it was a viable monetary system already that winter 2010-11. I bought in only after the 2011 bear trap. I started to actively solicit Bitcoin and organize related events in late 2012. In February 6, 2013 I began to fully embrace Bitcoin and turned my back on silver. That day I sent a letter to all my clients, subscribers and later also posted it in my blog, somewhat ashamed of the slow progress of silver, and also of the (seemingly) late decision to quit it in favor of bitcoins. In the letter I issued the strongest possible buy recommendation for bitcoin.
(translation mine)

I (still) recommend each and every one to invest at least a small sum in bitcoins. I also recommend that all familiarize themselves with bitcoin [sic]. Even though typically it is more prudent to familiarize yourself with the investment first, and only then invest, bitcoin's value appreciation has been so rapid (15% monthly during the last 1.5 years) that even the reverse order could be taken. This only if you pretend to not find enough time at your disposal, to familiarize yourself with this fascinating invention, which has already revolutionized the international micropayments remittance industry and may in the future be a paradigm shift to the monetary system as a whole.

/—-****—-

I am rather proud of the millions of euros that my clients have prospered by investing in silver. One good piece of advice is better than any number of bad. Now, I believe that an investment comparable to silver has been invented. Although the risks are high (bitcoin can go to zero, like euros or dollars, unlike silver or gold), the value appreciation potential is staggering.
Risto Pietilä 6.2.2013


Since writing that and investing an increasing percentage of my and the companies' portfolio into bitcoin, I have become a Bitcoin multimillionaire. I live in Helsinki with my wife and daugher. I have recently purchased a castle to act as a Bitcoin Retreat Center.


Bitcoin Economics Resources

Apart from the Beginners' Introduction and the FAQ, the other resources are my primers and forum contribution to the bitcoin knowledge base:

Introduction to Bitcoin

Bitcoin FAQ

How bitcoins are distributed among holders of different size

Bitcoin's price trend 2009-2013

The TOP-500 Bitcoin wealthiest (not reliable, not updated)

"SSS" (Bitcoin Savings Plan)

What is the value of a bitcoin (EV method)

rpietila Wall Observer (chat thread)



Happened in previous episode of rpietila public diary 12.4.2013-18.6.2013
- rpietila explaining how he makes money with bitcoin
- Deduces bitcoin's long term target price of $300/mBTC
- Talking about Real Bills Doctrine
- Sent BTC13.37 to nkspace, an unknown forum troll
- Organized an international Bitcoin Summit in Finnish country hotel
- Developed concepts of Bitcoin Supernode System and Bitcoin Dealer Network Association
- Closed down due to declining health in anticipation of $1.400/mBTC


Happened in this thread
- Noticing that Bitcoin is designed such (declining mining rewards) that it will likely revert to corporate control starting in 2033
- Design proposal of a CPU-mineable altcoin with ever-increasing monetary base
- This discussion is tied with the Bitcoin's price trend, which will go to over a million $/BTC in its peak, which is probably 18-48 months from now
- Typhoon hit the Philippines, and we are organising the (possibly) first ever P2P cryptocurrency aid effort (lots of PICS)
- The second Bitcoin crash of 2013 is underway
- The thread is closed


Current all-purpose thread



If you want to follow my stream (all comments, most of which are quite situational).

I use mBTC whenever practical.

If I have time, I actively moderate the threads for
- bad behavior
- negative posts
- noncontent
- repetition, including "rpietila is k1ng", "+1"
- off topic.
In some threads, most of the content gets deleted after a time, because the threads are preserved for newcomers to be read in entirety.

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[rpietila]

Today a quiet day. Bitcoin closed 4th consecutive "green" week yesterday. Last time this happened in January. I have the feeling based on multiple indicators that we have just started a megamove. I even bought back 170,000mBTC which I had previously sold.

[rpietila]

Since this was dubbed "Golden post", I will copy it here:

My advice for successful bitcoin investing is as follows:

- Every time the price is below the trendline, BUY
- If it is above, HOLD, if you think you can buy cheaper after a dip (for lazy investors: BUY unless the price is more than double the target)
- If the price overshoots by a great margin, such as 5x the trend, HOLD/SELL (never sell more than a fraction, even temporarily)

The trendline goes up 23% per month, so you should not sell after every little blip over the trendline, because it will catch the price so soon. Only major overshoots should be sold into. Always buy if the price is below trendline, because the trend will rise so quickly and the price will need to rise even quicker, just to catch up with the trend. Never wait in this kind of situation. We are now in this situation, since Nov. trendtarget is $310.

[rpietila]

Started a new thread, which is related to my work (enabling people to exchange bitcoins for other types of non-fiat money). Go, look and vote!

[rpietila]

This morning saw the ATH, nothing special businesswise.
(Later edit: crossed the $266 ATH from last April - from now on we would see ATH four days a week)

We are celebrating it in our BitcoinMillionaire(tm) club currently with some champagne etc. Sorry for being so short-worded.

[BitChick]

Congrats!  Wish we could join you in that party! We are a quite far from joining a millionaires club.  Perhaps in a couple years some of us can be there too if we can hold on that long and all goes well.   

[rpietila]

Thanks for the encouraging words! It does not take that long to become millionaire with bitcoin. Today I was offered a bet concerning whether bitcoin will hit $5,000 before next June. Of course I took the "no" side. It is very nice if it happens, but in that case it does not matter to lose a bet. Furthermore, I already have a similar bet, but for the cutoff price of $1,000. That one I am on the "yes" side.

All in all, if in next June the price is less than $1,000 or more than $5,000, the bets cancel each other. If the price is in between (what I consider the most likely scenario!), I win both, netting 2,000mBTC.

This is just an example that you should strive to make your financial arrangements such that you win regardless (or minimum that you don't lose). Then just wait the required approximately 2 years and you will be a millionaire if bitcoin stays on track.

In the celebrations I got to use the Bitcoin ATM, and it was really cool. The bitcoins came instantly to my mobile wallet and premium was so low that I am almost ahead by now (I bought @199€, now: 197).

[Wekkel]

This ATM thing is really cool. It makes Bitcoin somewhat better to accept (cash machine -> cash). Never underestimate the psychological aspects.

[rpietila]

Huh, last week did indeed score a tall green, and this week will also. On Friday I sold a BTC5 casascius for €1,470. When the buyer came back with the money, the price rise had already eaten my 5% margin over spot. The following day it had eaten the BTC1 physical premium. Then it crashed 29% and is already pretty much back where it was. Well done.  

The saddest thing on the Earth are bitcoin speculators who have sold out (at a profit, or loss, doesn't matter) and can't bite the bullet to buy back significantly higher. So now they spend their time in agony and attack old and new adopters alike in forums and Facebook.

I acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin has technical issues and it may have to be reengineered sometime in the future. But from an investor's point of view, every uncertainty can be mitigated by not investing 100% of your assets into same thing. As bitcoin's rise averages over 1000% per year, it is ridiculous to think that it would be risk or volatility free.

[thezerg]

Huh, last week did indeed score a tall green, and this week will also. On Friday I sold a BTC5 casascius for €1,470. When the buyer came back with the money, the price rise had already eaten my 5% margin over spot. The following day it had eaten the BTC1 physical premium. Then it crashed 29% and is already pretty much back where it was. Well done. 

The saddest thing on the Earth are bitcoin speculators who have sold out (at a profit, or loss, doesn't matter) and can't bite the bullet to buy back significantly higher. So now they spend their time in agony and attack old and new adaptors alike in forums and Facebook.

I acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin has technical issues and it may have to be reengineered sometime in the future. But from an investor's point of view, every uncertainty can be mitigated by not investing 100% of your assets into same thing. As bitcoin's rise averages over 1000% per year, it is ridiculous to think that it would be risk or volatility free.

typo: adopters not adaptors,  but I agree, it is sad to read these people embarrassing themselves.

I think that even if other coins do emerge to address some of the problems with Bitcoin (like 10 minute settlement time, representation of other commodities), Bitcoin will still exist as a reserve and large value settlement currency... so long as Bitcoin is quite valuable there will be inertia to changes to protect the existing value from being lost due to bugs.  But when/if some other crypto currency starts to eat into Bitcoin's value, its features will be incorporated Bitcoin...

[rpietila]

There is a thread that has some deeper-than-Bitcoin discussion about the state of the world. It has several facets of the topic, so best read when you have time to read several pages. Combined with my recent findings about the Bitcoin market cap growth vis-a-vis new investment flow, this paints a troubling picture of the equality of the bitcoin distribution at the bubble top.

It is hardly possible to stall Bitcoin's appreciation to a long-term sustainable value of, about 10 average apartments per bitcoin. At that point, bitcoin has risen 8 orders of magnitude already, and it is just hitting the masses (maybe 100 million people are in, so most are still out). There is just not enough time for the early adopters to get rid of the coins and acquire anything valuable. If they buy something, it is likely from other well-off people, which does not increase the number of bitcoins in the masses' hands. Capital Gains Tax is one thing that greatly hinders bitcoins from being distributed, and should be abolished.

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?

[dserrano5]

There is just not enough time for the early adopters to get rid of the coins and acquire anything valuable. If they buy something, it is likely from other well-off people, which does not increase the number of bitcoins in the masses' hands.

Interesting thought, and one more reason why we should spend our coins now.

[Hawker]

99% of people are relatively poor - its not the purpose of Bitcoin to change that.  As long as people have excess food and good housing, there is no reason to be concerned about the fact that wealth is concentrated in 1% of the population.

[Sword Smith]

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?

Yes. Barricade yourself on a Caribbean Island.

In all seriousness, you touch upon a very important problem. When the whole economic landscape changes and The Last Big Bankrun (on the dollar dominated fiat system) hits us, most people will find it extremely unfair that early adopters sit on this wealth and their private pensions as well as the government's pension schemes are gone. There is one solution for that though. I will outline it in another thread.

[rpietila]

This and the following discussion is, I think, high quality concerning the economic threats to Bitcoin.

I have high hopes for the Bitcoin ATM's, since they can quickly disperse bitcoins to many hands, which I consider important. I think that having individuals with large bitcoin stashes is equally important, but that is already achieved and will probably not change that much due to inertia alone. Educating the BTC1,000+ holders is my job. We need much more people like me, who quit their day job and do some thinking.

There is some talk concerning starting a think tank for people who are strongly committed in crypto and liberty. PM me.

[SlipperySlope]

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?

Have you seen dukong's bitcoin ranking search? http://btc.ondn.net/search

The current blockchain holdings by address yield this distribution ....

Code:

Balance        Rank
1 BTC       195,629
10 BTC       91,885
100 BTC      10,128
1,000 BTC     1,127
10,000 BTC       95
100,000 BTC       3

Total     2,062,380

At full adoption, one could reasonably expect the same ratios of large to small holdings, with large growth below 1 BTC. Addressing your point, let's think about when the 98% of humanity acquires bitcoins. I believe it will not be in the next few years when bitcoin reaches full adoption by financial speculators, rather the masses will adopt bitcoin when it is the universal payment mechanism, e.g. everyone has a mobile debit account denominated in bitcoins for everyday point of sale purchases.

There is a lesser percentage of humanity that invests in securities and precious metals. Here in the USA, that is about 50%. It is the investor class that will propel bitcoin to the bubble you mention. My logistic bitcoin price analysis suggests that the exponential increase of bitcoin prices will continue for a few more years, therefore in the final exponential year perhaps 10x more new investors will participate - and those are the ones who may be buying near the top.

The current fiat-printing stimulation by coordinating central banks could soon be tapered off as the world economy recovers from the Great Recession. Accordingly, I expect world stock markets to return to more typical valuations during the same period that bitcoin reaches full adoption by speculators. Thus at the same time stock markets are slumping, bitcoin will be a contrasting boom. That might be the narrative that lures the last large cohort of bitcoin investors.

I am not worried about income and wealth inequality being aggravated by bitcoin adoption. Economic injustice is solvable by the political process in respective jurisdictions. As an aside, achieving the Technological Singularity is my life's mission - I am an active artificial intelligence researcher, and believe that when computers and robots put nearly everyone out of work, the political process will find a fair way to allocate purchasing power to human consumers - in a future economy growing exponentially without the constraints of human labor.

[vokain]

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?

Yes. Barricade yourself on a Caribbean Island.

In all seriousness, you touch upon a very important problem. When the whole economic landscape changes and The Last Big Bankrun (on the dollar dominated fiat system) hits us, most people will find it extremely unfair that early adopters sit on this wealth and their private pensions as well as the government's pension schemes are gone. There is one solution for that though. I will outline it in another thread.

http://lifeboat.com/blog/2013/04/bitcoins-dystopian-future

We need people thinking about this. I’ll admit that many of the things I wrote about may not happen at all, or may happen very differently than I imagine. However, there are lots of people touting the fantastic benefits that bitcoin and its children can give us, and I don’t see anybody talking about how bad things could potentially get.

We need solutions. When the government finally starts taking decentralized currency seriously, it will probably be doing so in a state of panic. We need to be advising governments now about how they can survive the storm and protect their populace. We need to think of ways the government can pay for its most critical operations, and what legislation makes sense to mitigate these new risks while preserving as much freedom as we can.

The Lifeboat Foundation is attempting to provide this thinking, advice, and solutions. They are already getting ready for a new advisory board, culled from computer scientists, economists, and bitcoin experts. If you make a fortune from your investments in decentralized currency, I urge you to consider how you can help all the people harmed by these rapid changes. Many bitcoin enthusiasts seem to think they will get to retire on a private island with a harem and a stable of Italian sports cars. This is wrong. Bitcoin investors need to someday become bitcoin philanthropists, and our giving needs to be targeted at helping all the people we have harmed. The Lifeboat Foundation is one option, but I’m sure there will be others.

[AnonyMint]

The current fiat-printing stimulation by coordinating central banks could soon be tapered off as the world economy recovers from the Great Recession.

There is no recovery. This is an illusion of increasing debt. I explained this at the following linked post, as well have a link there to the astronomical total debt-to-GDP ratios, e.g. 550% for the UK for example.

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3179

I believe you are living in Neverland. Do you have any rationale to support that statement?

We are seeing a bounce in dollar and euro because capital is pulling out of BRICs due to the end of China's imbalanced economy. The commodity bubble peaked and is in a slow motion crash.

India is crumbling. The collapse has stalled but will renew after a bounce. Ditto China, Brazil, Russia, etc.

Accordingly, I expect world stock markets to return to more typical valuations during the same period that bitcoin reaches full adoption by speculators.

Indeed you may see a double in US stock markets due to this capital rushing from periphery to the reserve economies. This will drive US interest rates up, which will lay the foundation for the collapse in 2016.

After 2016, all hell will break loose.

Thus at the same time stock markets are slumping, bitcoin will be a contrasting boom. That might be the narrative that lures the last large cohort of bitcoin investors.

Peripheral stock markets slumping because this wave of globalization via expansion of debt is peaking, US stock market will blast off to a double between now and end of 2015 because capital is running back to the safest haven and this causing a boom in US real estate and markets.

I am not worried about income and wealth inequality being aggravated by bitcoin adoption. Economic injustice is solvable by the political process in respective jurisdictions.

No it is not. Political action invariably makes everything worse.

You fail to understand the basic game theory of political economics. Learn from Eric S Raymond, the creator of "open source" who has a claimed 150 - 170 IQ:

Some Iron Laws of Political Economics

As an aside, achieving the Technological Singularity is my life's mission - I am an active artificial intelligence researcher,

Technological Singularity is complete nonsense. I explained why on my blog:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html

and believe that when computers and robots put nearly everyone out of work, the political process will find a fair way to allocate purchasing power to human consumers - in a future economy growing exponentially without the constraints of human labor.

You don't understand the physics of math. Degrees-of-freedom is potential energy. When you redistribute capital in effect you centralize it, thus you destroy all the potential energy in the economy.

If you boomer socialists have your way, you will destroy humanity and we will be in a MadMax dark age.

I am going to attempt to stop you. I realize you can't see your errors. I am trying to teach, but I doubt you will even read the links I provided above.

If you disagree with me, why not try to convince me with math and logic as my links above do.

P.S. I don't intend this as a personal insult. But if you are going to make statements that are consistent with destroying the world (from my perspective), please be prepared to support your reasoning with math, data, and logic.

[AnonyMint]

Then just wait the required approximately 2 years and you will be a millionaire if bitcoin stays on track.

Don't you remember when Jason Hommel was worth $15 million in 2007, then everything crashed.

Saying you are millionaire in Bitcoin is like saying "I expect the world to be a Neverland".

Just remember what Obama said, "you didn't earn that".

You were called "Robber Barons" in the last Great Depression.

No one wants to hear that indeed "it is too good to be true" as ALL such get rich quick schemes always are.

[SlipperySlope]

I am going to attempt to stop you. I realize you can't see your errors. I am trying to teach, but I doubt you will even read the links I provided above.

As a matter of fact, I met Eric Raymond in Austin where I worked at an AI research company. His comments on democratic politics are interesting. But I am satisfied that economic injustice is solvable by the political process. Not absolutely solvable - just good-enough solvable. In particular, I believe that household purchasing power, when unfairly allocated, can be recognized and fixed by the political process, stemming from the will of the voting majority in democratic jurisdictions, or by well-meaning technocrats elsewhere.

Suppose in some possible world, that the three Trinity College crypto guys are revealed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, and suppose that in 2018 they are bitcoin trillionaires. Would not the UK do something about redistributing their windfall? Or more likely, they would voluntarily distribute the majority of it.

Regarding a defense of the Technological Singularity, it is off-topic here. Suffice it to say that I believe all relevant intelligent human behavior, and likewise the behavior of human organizations, can be modeled as learnable skills. My own research, following the advice of Alan Turing, is to create a computer system capable of being taught skills, and then proceed to teach it.

Your blog post mentions human creativity as a counterexample. An important AI skill that I am developing is the ability for the computer to write and modify computer programs. This is the sort of creativity that interests me.

Potential bitcoin profit provides yet another way to bootstrap this effort. And I have in mind using bitcoin as an internal currency for the system of human-mentored software agents that comprise my AI architecture.