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Author Topic: Bitcoin downtrend is limited. Here's why.  (Read 362 times)
buwaytress
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April 03, 2018, 10:10:24 AM
 #21

I would say that most of the $15k/mainstream public already sold to avoid higher loses. And that's why the price crashed.

Those who sold and cut losses are stupid enough and didn't used their common sense, specially newbies, irrational buyers.
Maybe they are. Or maybe they bought at $19k just to sell at $15k. Would you be holding until now?

I'm a hodler no matter what, but I can't call someone who sold at an obvious downtrend to rebuy lower 'stupid'.

This is by far the most plausible. We know for a fact that a lot of new money came into the market during and after December, especially with futures lending Bitcoin a further air of "unignorable" buys. It's only sensible to think that these traders would have set stop losses above 10k and those who bought in at or above 10k stopped out around 8 and 9. That's definitely pressuring the price down, and it's just the gift that keeps on gifting...

Pointless to call traders stupid when they're practising perfectly sound risk mitigation strategies.

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April 04, 2018, 06:30:43 AM
 #22

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.

Absolutely right. Furthermore we shouldn't forget that costs for mining BTC may be at a level around $3k-$4k. So even some big miners have still lots of room for shenanigans. Don't think it's just big retail investors or funds who can play games. The miners are heavily involved as well.
Markets tend to stay longer irrational than you or we can stay solvent. So never over invest and or think to rational and believe you know what's the market going to do. You'll get burned very bad with that kind of mentality.

I believe that is incorrect. Doesn't it cost $8000, give or take a few hundred, to mine 1 Bitcoin? Can a miner make a comment on this and explain all the facts?

Speculation based on false information is pointless.


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April 04, 2018, 07:04:59 AM
 #23

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.

I disagree because this doesn't sound realistic to me on many points.
for example if someone is holding ever since $12k+ and price falls down they will sell for sure and when it reaches a ridiculously low price like lower than $5k they will surely surely sell! unless they have not bought bitcoin for profit! and that is unrealistic for most people so the sell pressure will start up IF a big dump were to happen.

but a sell pressure doesn't mean a drop or a bigger drop on its own. a sell pressure only means more sells, it can go either way depending on the buy support and how that can cancel the sells. in this case I do believe that there is an increasing buy support as the price goes down. for example if we need 100BTC to crash the $20k price, we will need 1000BTC to crash $15k and 10000BTC for $10k and it will be 100000BTC to crash $5k (arbitrary amounts of bitcoin to show the point). and whales do run out of bitcoin at some point since you can never go against the tide forever. there will be a point where you will be pushed back by the tide (the tide being the total strength of the buys).

so you are correct that the downtrend is limited but the limitation is because more people are buying more bitcoin as the price goes lower so it prevents the downtrend to continue forever and eventually will reverse the trend for good.

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April 04, 2018, 07:19:26 AM
 #24

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.


Agree. There is always a limit to how low one can go and would instead start to buck the trend and play it long term instead. Hit the moon or go for broke if there's nothing more to lose.
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April 04, 2018, 09:27:22 AM
 #25

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.


As Tryninja mentioned, most people have already dumped their coins at way higher levels by my knowledge so your theory that people will not be dumping at prices below $5k is not really plausible to me, at least. Long term holders most likely wouldn't have bought at $20k in the first place.

What will happen is, at around the $5k mark, demand for bitcoin will start to pick up.

Right now bitcoin is still in free fall. Even though it's going up in price today, it's going to continue the bearishness we saw as soon as this small rally is over.

We could see prices below $5k temporarily, but it'll quickly adjust back up to $4-5k. That's around a 30-40% reduction from right now, which means that $4-5k seems close to being the bottom for me.

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April 04, 2018, 04:58:03 PM
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 #26

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.

Absolutely right. Furthermore we shouldn't forget that costs for mining BTC may be at a level around $3k-$4k. So even some big miners have still lots of room for shenanigans. Don't think it's just big retail investors or funds who can play games. The miners are heavily involved as well.
Markets tend to stay longer irrational than you or we can stay solvent. So never over invest and or think to rational and believe you know what's the market going to do. You'll get burned very bad with that kind of mentality.

I believe that is incorrect. Doesn't it cost $8000, give or take a few hundred, to mine 1 Bitcoin? Can a miner make a comment on this and explain all the facts?

Speculation based on false information is pointless.

I am also interested in this topic. some people say cost of mining is around 3 to 4k and some 7 to 8k. The reality is that since we have been at this prices last years, hashrate has nearly tripled. So at the same prices as 4 months before, miners are not as profitable, they have a lot more competition.

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April 04, 2018, 05:22:14 PM
 #27

I don't know what to think anymore about bitcoin price. I suspected a crash after we had a brilliant 2017, but I dindn't think that the price would be consistenly so low for the last couple of weeks. Lets wait and see what happens.

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April 04, 2018, 05:25:06 PM
 #28

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.

Absolutely right. Furthermore we shouldn't forget that costs for mining BTC may be at a level around $3k-$4k. So even some big miners have still lots of room for shenanigans. Don't think it's just big retail investors or funds who can play games. The miners are heavily involved as well.
Markets tend to stay longer irrational than you or we can stay solvent. So never over invest and or think to rational and believe you know what's the market going to do. You'll get burned very bad with that kind of mentality.

I believe that is incorrect. Doesn't it cost $8000, give or take a few hundred, to mine 1 Bitcoin? Can a miner make a comment on this and explain all the facts?

Speculation based on false information is pointless.

I am also interested in this topic. some people say cost of mining is around 3 to 4k and some 7 to 8k. The reality is that since we have been at this prices last years, hashrate has nearly tripled. So at the same prices as 4 months before, miners are not as profitable, they have a lot more competition.
Competition does not affect the cost. If bitcoin mining costs 3-4K dollars, this amount does not change except for the region in which the production occurs due to the cost of electricity. It seems to me that the rise in the price of bitcoin will be very soon. If miners are really interested in the prospects of bitcoin that now need to negotiate with developers and come up with a mechanism in which bitcoin will be used in trade.
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April 04, 2018, 05:25:53 PM
 #29

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.

Many people have bought BTC when it was in the ATH prices. Seems txns volume is still low compared to Dec highs. Everyone just weathering this correction out. Good opportunity to buy now since it is way lower than the 10K mark.

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April 04, 2018, 05:32:35 PM
 #30

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.

Absolutely right. Furthermore we shouldn't forget that costs for mining BTC may be at a level around $3k-$4k. So even some big miners have still lots of room for shenanigans. Don't think it's just big retail investors or funds who can play games. The miners are heavily involved as well.
Markets tend to stay longer irrational than you or we can stay solvent. So never over invest and or think to rational and believe you know what's the market going to do. You'll get burned very bad with that kind of mentality.

I believe that is incorrect. Doesn't it cost $8000, give or take a few hundred, to mine 1 Bitcoin? Can a miner make a comment on this and explain all the facts?

Speculation based on false information is pointless.

I am also interested in this topic. some people say cost of mining is around 3 to 4k and some 7 to 8k. The reality is that since we have been at this prices last years, hashrate has nearly tripled. So at the same prices as 4 months before, miners are not as profitable, they have a lot more competition.
Competition does not affect the cost. If bitcoin mining costs 3-4K dollars, this amount does not change except for the region in which the production occurs due to the cost of electricity. It seems to me that the rise in the price of bitcoin will be very soon. If miners are really interested in the prospects of bitcoin that now need to negotiate with developers and come up with a mechanism in which bitcoin will be used in trade.

It does not affect your cost, your electricity bill if you dont add more rigs will stay the same, however price you pay per mined bitcoin will go up. You will need more time to produce it and it means more electricity per bitcoin.

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April 04, 2018, 06:37:00 PM
 #31

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.


As Tryninja mentioned, most people have already dumped their coins at way higher levels by my knowledge so your theory that people will not be dumping at prices below $5k is not really plausible to me, at least. Long term holders most likely wouldn't have bought at $20k in the first place.

What will happen is, at around the $5k mark, demand for bitcoin will start to pick up.

Right now bitcoin is still in free fall. Even though it's going up in price today, it's going to continue the bearishness we saw as soon as this small rally is over.

We could see prices below $5k temporarily, but it'll quickly adjust back up to $4-5k. That's around a 30-40% reduction from right now, which means that $4-5k seems close to being the bottom for me.
The demand will surely be higher if bitcoin price continue to go down.  Investors will flood and buy bitcoin which will positively affect the market price and that is what we have been waiting for.  Anyways,  it is also possible that there will be sellers if the price reach $6K- $7K which I would like to hope to only have a small effect on the bitcoin price.

The price have shown progress for the past few days but still we cannot depend on that the price will continue rising for the next weeks or months.

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April 04, 2018, 06:52:12 PM
 #32

I worry efficiency will lead to a negative not this base line price people suppose.    In any normal commodity industry the market price can fall below cost to produce.    What would happen in Bitcoin case is the miners now longer operate.

To me this says they switch to a more efficient process like Proof of stake not that somehow the tail wags the dog and a minimum price must happen.    

Heres something relevant I spotted, btw capitulation is considered a marker to a true bottom ie. irrational selling, it can happen.





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April 04, 2018, 09:08:31 PM
 #33

I disagree with the comment about the price will recover because of the supply drying up and not the demand going up, because IMO it's probably the opposite. There are a ton of people including me who would happily buy at a level such as $3-4k which builds effective support for the market at that level. So yes, it is indeed limited, but probably not $5k which is just a couple thousand away from our level right now.

I don't see how you are disagreeing with my point. If you read my post carefully, you will see that I don't say it is just the supply drying up. Actually, I say it is both the demand going up because of lower prices and the supply tapering off on the same account. To sum it up, at some point in price and time we should see a convergence event where both these tendencies meet and match each other. That will be a quasi-stable price from which an entirely new trend should develop in due course.
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April 04, 2018, 10:17:09 PM
 #34

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.

I agree to you because not all people are crazy panicking when price goes down they much think what is for the better and who's person that buy a lot of bitcoin sell it in low price without any profit. We need to be patient because it's not all the time is bitcoin is on down price.
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April 04, 2018, 10:31:52 PM
 #35

It's difficult to predict.
Seems the harder it is to tempt holders to sell, the lower btc would have to go to shake out weak hands.

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April 05, 2018, 07:14:05 PM
 #36

Interesting perspective, but there are plenty of reasons why people would want to cash out anyway. Let's not forget that Bitcoin only reached the $5k level around September a year ago, so chances are majority of people in Bitcoin bought below that level. They break even at different points, so you never really know when they spill their milk, and you never really know when they'd want to dump. I totally get your point though.

If people bought at 5k and below, they more than likely had already sold at 10k, then bought again, and so on, till the December peaks. Apart from that, a lot of people were buying on the way down to 10k and below - with 12k being the major support back then, otherwise we wouldn't see so much resistance right now. These days Bitcoin seems to be stuck in a pretty narrow range, and whenever the price makes an effort to rise higher, it invariably retreats soon thereafter. We have seen this cycle repeat at least a few times during the last two weeks.

In short, neither up nor down.
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April 05, 2018, 10:58:07 PM
 #37

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.

If someone wants to sell their many bitcoin we can be lower than $5k as we had experience this is a volatile in nature and we had no control in every investors decision if they want to give blood in the market. This is a business with billions of money circulating at crypto and nobody wants to be a losser not unless a dumbass investor.

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April 05, 2018, 11:45:18 PM
 #38

It's difficult to predict.
Seems the harder it is to tempt holders to sell, the lower btc would have to go to shake out weak hands.

Do not worry, there will be no other banning that might affect the market since, China, Japan, Fb, twitter, google, the biggest name already done in it. In the time it will recover and all traders will be back on track.

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April 05, 2018, 11:53:19 PM
 #39

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.


Bitcoin has been shown over the years to be absolutely immune to what technical analysts tend to call "psychological levels". I remember that over the past year there was too much speculation about what would happen once the bitcoin price broke the historical high around $1,200. Many also watched with expectation the moment when the marks of $5,000, $10,000 and $15,000 fell, and bitcoin broke those barriers easily and without fright. Therefore, I do not see any solid reason to think that the $5,000 price now can work as a sufficiently strong support level in case a massive sell-off occurs.

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April 06, 2018, 07:46:29 AM
 #40

I am also interested in this topic. some people say cost of mining is around 3 to 4k and some 7 to 8k. The reality is that since we have been at this prices last years, hashrate has nearly tripled. So at the same prices as 4 months before, miners are not as profitable, they have a lot more competition.

you have to consider a couple of factors:
1. difficulty (which everyone forgets)
2. bitcoin price
3. electricity and other costs.

2 and 3 are easy to measure since the numbers are simply found and 3 is a fixed number. but you have to measure how long does it take to earn a fixed amount, it can be finding of 1 block or earning 1BTC or earning in fiat like $1000 or something like that. and this is constantly changing due to difficulty adjustments.

ps. I don't think cost of mining is important at all! because you may think it is $7000 now and say price won't fall below that but it may fall and then if it falls below $7000 the cost of mining will be reduced to $6000 and so on.

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