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Author Topic: Bitcoin downtrend is limited. Here's why.  (Read 362 times)
Canis Majoris
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April 06, 2018, 02:02:34 PM
 #41

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.


Bitcoin has been shown over the years to be absolutely immune to what technical analysts tend to call "psychological levels". I remember that over the past year there was too much speculation about what would happen once the bitcoin price broke the historical high around $1,200. Many also watched with expectation the moment when the marks of $5,000, $10,000 and $15,000 fell, and bitcoin broke those barriers easily and without fright. Therefore, I do not see any solid reason to think that the $5,000 price now can work as a sufficiently strong support level in case a massive sell-off occurs.

In fact, that point I mentioned right in the OP, which you included in your quote, by the way. I highlighted that we are not invulnerable or immune to the impact that a big whale could easily deliver. But then the price would plunge however low, even to single digits if, for example, Satoshi himself comes out of his hideout and drops his stash of coins on our heads. But there are more than enough bearwhales beside him who can dump the price below what we could reasonably think of.
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April 06, 2018, 03:23:58 PM
 #42

It's difficult to predict.
Seems the harder it is to tempt holders to sell, the lower btc would have to go to shake out weak hands.


I keep on buying when the price dip through $7000 and sell a small amount when the price is over $8,000. I have made some profit by doing that.
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April 06, 2018, 05:55:57 PM
 #43

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.
That is ever the best summary to all the things going on in the market right now than I have ever seen.
A lot of new investors may not know how volatile the market is or how the whales can actually make the market drop to a huge extent just to shake the weak hands off.

One thing however they always forget to know is that these people know how to read emotions on the chart and they play on that since they have the upper hand anyway and anyone who falls into such trap as an investor will really have a lot of blame to push on themselves when the time comes.
Canis Majoris
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April 06, 2018, 06:23:00 PM
 #44

ps. I don't think cost of mining is important at all! because you may think it is $7000 now and say price won't fall below that but it may fall and then if it falls below $7000 the cost of mining will be reduced to $6000 and so on.

These topics and arguments emerge occasionally now and then where some people claim that the price can't fall below some cost of mining. Obviously, this is nowhere near how things stand in reality. First, there is no certain cost of mining because every miner has different costs even if his fellow miners have the same electricity prices or the same equipment. And then, miners don't dictate prices, prices are determined by the market, while the role and importance of miners has long seized to be a factor there.
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April 07, 2018, 04:46:49 AM
 #45

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.
As far as I am concerned, I feel we are just going to only have the last phase of drop before entering consolidation. Yes, we cannot start assuming for the market, but I do not see that strong hands dropping the market for now. A little bit lower than $6k could be possible, who knows ?

The bears may still want to act on the market, no one also knows, but one thing I know is that the market will definitely recover, and I am sure those who have been holding from the peak of last year already know these facts and really would not care these fluctuations. OP may bring many reasons for this downtrend but I too never care them because I just focus on simply holding my bitcoins for the prices hundred time of current levels.

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Herbert2020
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April 07, 2018, 06:20:58 AM
 #46

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out.
"cash outs" such as Mt Gox trustee never caused any drop in the past to want to cause a drop now. the drop would have happened nonetheless and in case you have forgotten they started selling their coins when price was a little above $4000 last year and it continued as the price went up to $20k.

Quote
I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.
not at all. you are forgetting the panic sellers and how they work.
the thing about panic sellers is that they don't understand how the market works. they buy something and hope for it to go up so for example if one of them bought at $15k and price started going down they still hope for it to go up, at some point as the price goes lower they can no longer continue to hope because as i said they don't have any understanding of how market works so they eventually dump at a huge loss which is always near the bottom and before the reversal.

Quote
So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.
again i disagree. it is always about both supply and demand. right now there is an equilibrium between the two which is why we have been seeing an stable price for the past 30 hours. when this equilibrium is broken price starts to move in that direction.

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wozzek23
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April 07, 2018, 11:31:49 AM
 #47

It's difficult to predict.
Seems the harder it is to tempt holders to sell, the lower btc would have to go to shake out weak hands.


I keep on buying when the price dip through $7000 and sell a small amount when the price is over $8,000. I have made some profit by doing that.
Aww! That’s somehow cute. It seems you are new to the crypto market or the one who is not investing too much into the market. This is nothing wrong that you invest a lot into bitcoin but investing little amounts and making little profits on regular basis is the better than investing too much and waiting over the time span of months. Enjoy the good profit you have earned from the market of bitcoin.

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April 07, 2018, 02:38:30 PM
 #48

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.
As far as I am concerned, I feel we are just going to only have the last phase of drop before entering consolidation. Yes, we cannot start assuming for the market, but I do not see that strong hands dropping the market for now. A little bit lower than $6k could be possible, who knows ?

People had been saying essentially the same when the price first reached 12k - after it plunged from an ATH of 20k. It didn't work out very well in the end, though it was a good and sound - if sound is the right term to be used here - dead cat's bounce when the price went as high as 15-16k. It turned out to be the last chance to get out mostly unscathed for those who bought at the peak in December. Then there was a good deal of talk about "consolidation phase" at and around 9-10k, and now we are trading sideways below 7k.

The bears may still want to act on the market, no one also knows, but one thing I know is that the market will definitely recover, and I am sure those who have been holding from the peak of last year already know these facts and really would not care these fluctuations. OP may bring many reasons for this downtrend but I too never care them because I just focus on simply holding my bitcoins for the prices hundred time of current levels.

It will recover in due course but there are many questions as to when it will happen, from what levels exactly, and which coins will recover better than the others and which won't recover at all. It is not just about Bitcoin.
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April 08, 2018, 11:58:38 AM
 #49

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.

of course people who buy for $ 12000 - $ 15000 will not sell in situations like this, they will tend to hold it. how much would they lose if they sold it? very much, but I do not think prices will continue to fall any further. the price will begin to grow slowly although still in the shadow with a very strong fluctuations.
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April 08, 2018, 01:42:32 PM
 #50

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out.
"cash outs" such as Mt Gox trustee never caused any drop in the past to want to cause a drop now. the drop would have happened nonetheless and in case you have forgotten they started selling their coins when price was a little above $4000 last year and it continued as the price went up to $20k.

I'm not sure I understand what you refer to here. As far as I know, there was no selling of this scale in the past at prices so high. The FBI auctioned off a few dozen thousand bitcoins in the past but that was an off-market deal anyway and it didn't affect the price for obvious reasons.

Quote
I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.
not at all. you are forgetting the panic sellers and how they work.

Are you sure you know how panic selling actually works? I think there are no more panic sellers left on the market by now, in massive numbers. The vast majority of them should be gone already. That likely explains why we no longer see flash crashes - in the absence of bearwhales of the Mt. Gox custodian scale, at least.

Quote
So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.
again i disagree. it is always about both supply and demand. right now there is an equilibrium between the two which is why we have been seeing an stable price for the past 30 hours. when this equilibrium is broken price starts to move in that direction.

The price can stop falling as either supply dries up or demand builds up. I'm talking about the process, not the end result in this case.
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April 10, 2018, 04:52:11 AM
 #51

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.
As far as I am concerned, I feel we are just going to only have the last phase of drop before entering consolidation. Yes, we cannot start assuming for the market, but I do not see that strong hands dropping the market for now. A little bit lower than $6k could be possible, who knows ?

People had been saying essentially the same when the price first reached 12k - after it plunged from an ATH of 20k. It didn't work out very well in the end, though it was a good and sound - if sound is the right term to be used here - dead cat's bounce when the price went as high as 15-16k. It turned out to be the last chance to get out mostly unscathed for those who bought at the peak in December. Then there was a good deal of talk about "consolidation phase" at and around 9-10k, and now we are trading sideways below 7k.

The bears may still want to act on the market, no one also knows, but one thing I know is that the market will definitely recover, and I am sure those who have been holding from the peak of last year already know these facts and really would not care these fluctuations. OP may bring many reasons for this downtrend but I too never care them because I just focus on simply holding my bitcoins for the prices hundred time of current levels.

It will recover in due course but there are many questions as to when it will happen, from what levels exactly, and which coins will recover better than the others and which won't recover at all. It is not just about Bitcoin.
Those who are bitcoin supporters, I don’t think so they are worried about any other coin or they are interested in updates about any of the altcoins. They thing is simple, with the increase in the market conditions of bitcoin every altcoin is going to show some improvement.

So this is why people who have even invested into altcoins are concerned about the rise in the prices of bitcoin for estimating their coins value.

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April 10, 2018, 05:22:22 AM
 #52

In fact, that point I mentioned right in the OP, which you included in your quote, by the way. I highlighted that we are not invulnerable or immune to the impact that a big whale could easily deliver. But then the price would plunge however low, even to single digits if, for example, Satoshi himself comes out of his hideout and drops his stash of coins on our heads. But there are more than enough bearwhales beside him who can dump the price below what we could reasonably think of.

The Mt gox coins were never written off but the Satoshi coins after this period of time are considered out of circulation permanently.  So any return of the OG would be both surprising, no doubt welcomed but very much introduce a giant source of coins back into the market which would not be bullish.

The effect of the Mt gox coins is like water into sand, it brings liquidity and higher supply then normal leading to a lower price for that length of selling.   Its not changing the underlying value but buyers are more able to find supply.  The real weakness at present I think originates with the end of the tax year.   That event unites sellers into a specific program of selling not normally present in the market, its especially able to lower the price at that time.

Again its not altering the worth only the market availability and price for this time.    I think this is a natural process, we are all familar with profit taking even within a bullish trend this occurs as traders naturally hold more for short periods of time then they can own longer term.  

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April 10, 2018, 06:40:05 AM
 #53

I agree with you and I disagree with the prophet of doom that keeps saying bitcoin is going to fall below $3,000. If the current downward movement continue and we fall below  $5,000 it means even those that buy at $17,000 , $14,000, $10,000 , $9,000 and $7500 has started to sell their positions and that may cause complete dump of the price.

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April 10, 2018, 04:34:23 PM
 #54

In fact, that point I mentioned right in the OP, which you included in your quote, by the way. I highlighted that we are not invulnerable or immune to the impact that a big whale could easily deliver. But then the price would plunge however low, even to single digits if, for example, Satoshi himself comes out of his hideout and drops his stash of coins on our heads. But there are more than enough bearwhales beside him who can dump the price below what we could reasonably think of.

The Mt gox coins were never written off but the Satashi coins after this period of time are considered out of circulation permantly.  So any return of the OG would be both surprising, no doubt welcomed but very much introduce a giant source of coins back into the market which would not be bullish.

Satoshi is not the only one with a huge stash of coins. I've read somewhere around here that there are a few guys roaming in the wild who have more than 100k bitcoins in the wallets. What if one of them decides to cash out one day? Before the Mt. Gox dude, it was all theory and speculation, but now it is no longer the case. It is a new reality, a reality where one whale crashes the price dozens of percentages in a matter of days. Surely not something to discard or write off in your investment decisions.
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April 10, 2018, 04:52:12 PM
 #55

Your assumption is very true I also believe the bitcoin value will not drop to $5000 that more demand before that happens ,moreover whales that will not want market value down to that extent then investors who should be more patient to hodl if the value gets that far

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April 10, 2018, 04:57:08 PM
 #56

In fact, that point I mentioned right in the OP, which you included in your quote, by the way. I highlighted that we are not invulnerable or immune to the impact that a big whale could easily deliver. But then the price would plunge however low, even to single digits if, for example, Satoshi himself comes out of his hideout and drops his stash of coins on our heads. But there are more than enough bearwhales beside him who can dump the price below what we could reasonably think of.

The Mt gox coins were never written off but the Satashi coins after this period of time are considered out of circulation permantly.  So any return of the OG would be both surprising, no doubt welcomed but very much introduce a giant source of coins back into the market which would not be bullish.

Satoshi is not the only one with a huge stash of coins. I've read somewhere around here that there are a few guys roaming in the wild who have more than 100k bitcoins in the wallets. What if one of them decides to cash out one day? Before the Mt. Gox dude, it was all theory and speculation, but now it is no longer the case. It is a new reality, a reality where one whale crashes the price dozens of percentages in a matter of days. Surely not something to discard or write off in your investment decisions.

I'm going to need a source on who these people are with 100,000 bitcoin under their own control.   Somehow they've decided to never use them or employ that capital in a gambling operation or similar just left them unused ?
Without details of who it is I cant exactly decide how probable it is they would sell now and decided not to previously.

I think the very largest wallets regularly used are by business and exchanges.   Though the amount appears large, the capital is employed daily in various ways.  The value is shared by a great many individuals and all of those people have different thoughts on selling or not.

The big point in a market is not everyone agrees and certainly they dont agree all at the same time.    So buyer and sellers find various prices they are willing to part or accumulate Bitcoin at.    If we get a trend, its because there is an ongoing theme in the market population.  It often takes a long time to get to the conclusion of a trend, its not an overnight event its a process of change.

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April 10, 2018, 05:58:52 PM
 #57

In fact, that point I mentioned right in the OP, which you included in your quote, by the way. I highlighted that we are not invulnerable or immune to the impact that a big whale could easily deliver. But then the price would plunge however low, even to single digits if, for example, Satoshi himself comes out of his hideout and drops his stash of coins on our heads. But there are more than enough bearwhales beside him who can dump the price below what we could reasonably think of.

The Mt gox coins were never written off but the Satashi coins after this period of time are considered out of circulation permantly.  So any return of the OG would be both surprising, no doubt welcomed but very much introduce a giant source of coins back into the market which would not be bullish.

Satoshi is not the only one with a huge stash of coins. I've read somewhere around here that there are a few guys roaming in the wild who have more than 100k bitcoins in the wallets. What if one of them decides to cash out one day? Before the Mt. Gox dude, it was all theory and speculation, but now it is no longer the case. It is a new reality, a reality where one whale crashes the price dozens of percentages in a matter of days. Surely not something to discard or write off in your investment decisions.

I'm going to need a source on who these people are with 100,000 bitcoin under their own control.   Somehow they've decided to never use them or employ that capital in a gambling operation or similar just left them unused ?
Without details of who it is I cant exactly decide how probable it is they would sell now and decided not to previously.

You can search the forum or wait until someone points you to the appropriate topic. I remember some dude has been claimed to have like 800k bitcoins, and he is not Satoshi Nakamoto.

Anyway, you can perform a search in Google. Just fill in "biggest Bitcoin wallets owned by individuals" and you will find out everything you wanted to know about who officially ranks the highest among Bitcoin owners. Okay, I carried out the search myself and here's the list of top Bitcoin holders. Ironically, Uncle Sam is listed as one of them, though I'm not sure that he cuts as an individual.
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