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Author Topic: Bitcoin downtrend is limited. Here's why.  (Read 397 times)
Canis Majoris
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April 02, 2018, 07:36:28 PM
Last edit: April 02, 2018, 07:50:51 PM by Canis Majoris
 #1

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.
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April 02, 2018, 08:54:58 PM
Last edit: April 28, 2018, 03:36:45 PM by peter0425
 #2

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.

You have a point and because of so much money at stakes, I don't think that the whales will simply not take the opportunity to purchase more at a price of $6400 that's why the price didn't go down to $5K as want many pundits predicted. Well, its possible, with FUD, however, there isn't one right now we still live a day.

Of course there will be holders, and no matter what the price, they will be holding and won't cut their losses by selling it. Those who sold and cut losses are stupid enough and didn't used their common sense, specially newbies, irrational buyers.

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April 02, 2018, 10:39:14 PM
 #3

I would say that most of the $15k/mainstream public already sold to avoid higher loses. And that's why the price crashed.

Those who sold and cut losses are stupid enough and didn't used their common sense, specially newbies, irrational buyers.
Maybe they are. Or maybe they bought at $19k just to sell at $15k. Would you be holding until now?

I'm a hodler no matter what, but I can't call someone who sold at an obvious downtrend to rebuy lower 'stupid'.

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April 02, 2018, 10:51:48 PM
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 #4

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.

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April 02, 2018, 11:10:33 PM
 #5

I tend not to underestimate the price of bitcoin; do not think it can't fall below 5k cause it can happen. No matter how you calculate it, cryptocurrency prices are unpredictable. And don't think that people won't sell, there are a lot of people who are already giving up since the price of bitcoin have seems to remain in price between 6k-7k. Some of them may rush off to sell now so as to gain a little
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April 02, 2018, 11:33:17 PM
 #6

I tend not to underestimate the price of bitcoin; do not think it can't fall below 5k cause it can happen. No matter how you calculate it, cryptocurrency prices are unpredictable. And don't think that people won't sell, there are a lot of people who are already giving up since the price of bitcoin have seems to remain in price between 6k-7k. Some of them may rush off to sell now so as to gain a little
We don't need to rush things, 2017 maybe a good year for crypto, but before that happens there is a long wait, it was not instantly happened so better calm and set amount you wanted your coin to reach. Think of it as a long term investment.


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April 03, 2018, 01:34:25 AM
 #7

I tend not to underestimate the price of bitcoin; do not think it can't fall below 5k cause it can happen. No matter how you calculate it, cryptocurrency prices are unpredictable. And don't think that people won't sell, there are a lot of people who are already giving up since the price of bitcoin have seems to remain in price between 6k-7k. Some of them may rush off to sell now so as to gain a little
We don't need to rush things, 2017 maybe a good year for crypto, but before that happens there is a long wait, it was not instantly happened so better calm and set amount you wanted your coin to reach. Think of it as a long term investment.

Patience and self control is the way on how we can handle things over, indeed that's good to be calm but even how we are able to do it the emotions will follow most of the time. Rushing this isn't right because we might fall into trap of regrets, and the worst is you possibly will panic which could end up losing all what you've been saving for a long time to make it an asset. Somehow having long term investment can be ruined through emotions, and while uncertainties of bitcoin's price kept on bouncing up and down we should be strong enough to take it as an emotional challenges. Learn how to be brave and stay focus on the future profit, because it really needs sacrifices before reward can be yours.
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April 03, 2018, 01:37:07 AM
 #8

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.
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April 03, 2018, 02:22:34 AM
 #9

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.

That's what happens because during price runs, bull or bear, it's emotion that is in control, not logic. If you can separate the two then you're already halfway being a great trader.


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April 03, 2018, 04:26:39 AM
 #10

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

But it also means that we are not on the phase of "capitulation" yet. We do not know how strong those people are psychologically and if they do not need that money for their needs in the real world. Some of them might have loaned the money to buy Bitcoin.

Quote
So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.


Less volatility is not necessarily good if you want Bitcoin's price to go up. Without volatility, the price would stay flat.



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April 03, 2018, 04:40:47 AM
 #11

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.



True. These are the people who spam threads about "will the price go up?" or "you need to remain calm", because they are already desperate and need confirmation that people are not as desperate as they are, they need some comfort. Or then they say this is a "correction" to feel better and deny the reality of facts (a correction wont go more than 25%, anything below that is a bear market).

They wonder if the price will recover, because they dont know about the fundamentals, or they know, but dont pay any attention to it. They want quick profits, they are in only to increase their fiat money, thats why they are triggered by tether printing.
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April 03, 2018, 04:41:11 AM
 #12

I think many investors like whales already knows that, That is why I think they already sold some of their coin when it is higher than $15,000 But this is a manipulation even if they lost so much they will sure get it back after the market crash do you really think they are not ready for this to happen and if we keep on underestimating them from manipulating the market we had already lost if many would not keep on holding their bitcoin, I really think there are many weak hand holders that already sold their bitcoin not only those whales but some middle class ones, I really think if they want to manipulate the market of crypto they will sacrifice something and they would gain later when the value recovers.
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April 03, 2018, 04:43:03 AM
 #13

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.
Am I seeing this wrong or not? I see the article created there are very similar similarities as above can be called copy paste, forgive me if I have an error here.

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April 03, 2018, 04:55:02 AM
 #14

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding. So it is not just about demand building up, it is also as much about supply running dry at lower prices. That could potentially lead to less volatility, at least temporarily until a new long-term trend gets established.


I think we will see BTC under $5k at some stage of this dump. However, if the price does go below $5000 it shouldn't end up at that point for too long and a recovery will happen soon enough. So there is honestly nothing to worry about, since we're already near bottom at the $6-7k level.

This is simply because of the fact that I feel like a lot of people who bought in at such high prices are actually newbies that panic sell easily.

I disagree with the comment about the price will recover because of the supply drying up and not the demand going up, because IMO it's probably the opposite. There are a ton of people including me who would happily buy at a level such as $3-4k which builds effective support for the market at that level. So yes, it is indeed limited, but probably not $5k which is just a couple thousand away from our level right now.

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April 03, 2018, 07:16:45 AM
 #15

Well, somehow I thought I wouldn't need further explanations but it seems that many people didn't understand what I meant. Okay, I will try to explain my point in detail below.

People often act without thinking twice, but this is not the case when prices have been low for nearly 3 months already. For example, you bought at $19k and you didn't sell at 15k, 12k, and so on, then selling at 5k and below is psychologically meaningless to you because you already accepted your loss. You have your capital halved and then halved again, and now you have like 25% left of it. To me, it makes no sense selling in these circumstances because it is unlikely that Bitcoin will fall substantially below relative to the loss you already suffered. Indeed, it can fall from 5k down to 1k, but the new loss will be pretty irrelevant to you psychologically because by that time you have already lost most of your capital anyway. In other words, it's no use crying over spilt milk.
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April 03, 2018, 08:52:22 AM
 #16

Well, somehow I thought I wouldn't need further explanations but it seems that many people didn't understand what I meant. Okay, I will try to explain my point in detail below.

People often act without thinking twice, but this is not the case when prices have been low for nearly 3 months already. For example, you bought at $19k and you didn't sell at 15k, 12k, and so on, then selling at 5k and below is psychologically meaningless to you because you already accepted your loss. You have your capital halved and then halved again, and now you have like 25% left of it. To me, it makes no sense selling in these circumstances because it is unlikely that Bitcoin will fall substantially below relative to the loss you already suffered. Indeed, it can fall from 5k down to 1k, but the new loss will be pretty irrelevant to you psychologically because by that time you have already lost most of your capital anyway. In other words, it's no use crying over spilt milk.
Yeah good thinking, but no matter what loses are loses and the person who experience this has had pretty hard punches on the financial and emotional aspect does not matter when he felt it but it is a matter of he has undergone the lost itself.
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April 03, 2018, 09:24:02 AM
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 #17

Well, somehow I thought I wouldn't need further explanations but it seems that many people didn't understand what I meant. Okay, I will try to explain my point in detail below.

People often act without thinking twice, but this is not the case when prices have been low for nearly 3 months already. For example, you bought at $19k and you didn't sell at 15k, 12k, and so on, then selling at 5k and below is psychologically meaningless to you because you already accepted your loss. You have your capital halved and then halved again, and now you have like 25% left of it. To me, it makes no sense selling in these circumstances because it is unlikely that Bitcoin will fall substantially below relative to the loss you already suffered. Indeed, it can fall from 5k down to 1k, but the new loss will be pretty irrelevant to you psychologically because by that time you have already lost most of your capital anyway. In other words, it's no use crying over spilt milk.

Interesting perspective, but there are plenty of reasons why people would want to cash out anyway. Let's not forget that Bitcoin only reached the $5k level around September a year ago, so chances are majority of people in Bitcoin bought below that level. They break even at different points, so you never really know when they spill their milk, and you never really know when they'd want to dump. I totally get your point though.

It would do everyone good to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. The reality is that Bitcoin is speculative, and could therefore dip anywhere.

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April 03, 2018, 09:32:21 AM
 #18

160 000 BTC and BCH is a lot of selling pressure.

For big players it might be more profitable to let the market panic and dump from this while scooping up cheap coins on the open market and participate in the auctions (at this point i believe something like this will happen).

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April 03, 2018, 09:32:37 AM
 #19

I come to think that we can't fall massively below 5,000 dollars per BTC - if ever - unless some major whale - of the Mt. Gox trustee's scale - decides to cash out. I base my assumption on the premise that people who bought coins at high prices like over $12-$15k won't be selling at prices below some psychological limit because selling at such prices will be pointless and their only viable option will be to continue holding.

that's not how market psychology works. you're being far too rational. irrational despair and exuberance dominate markets, and emotions dominate traders.

so here's what usually happens: those people who bought at $15k? they think rationally like you for quite some time. but the price drops and drops and eventually, they start to wonder if the price will ever recover. then the crash accelerates. panic ensues. these once rational hodlers who were so strong at $8000 are suddenly so much weaker at $5000 and below.

these are the bulls that sell the bottom on high volume in bitcoin's classic v-bottoms. then they provide lots of buying power on the way up when they want to recover their coins. you should only devote yourself to hodling if you can actually keep your cool during crashes and avoid selling into bottoms.

Absolutely right. Furthermore we shouldn't forget that costs for mining BTC may be at a level around $3k-$4k. So even some big miners have still lots of room for shenanigans. Don't think it's just big retail investors or funds who can play games. The miners are heavily involved as well.
Markets tend to stay longer irrational than you or we can stay solvent. So never over invest and or think to rational and believe you know what's the market going to do. You'll get burned very bad with that kind of mentality.
imapessimist
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April 03, 2018, 09:33:17 AM
 #20

The major whales won't cash out completely.  They are quite happy with gobbling up profits on a daily basis.  So a lot of investor's money is now going to feed whales.  That's why I won't buy now.
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