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Author Topic: Contrarian Investing - speculating bitcoin price  (Read 72 times)
btcone111
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April 05, 2018, 12:56:02 PM
 #1

Contrarian Investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time
Contrarian investing works very well in all markets throughout history.
Last time when btc hit $20K and turned back, permabear never thought it could reach $20K [most were bearish when it hit $7K / $10K], permabull never thought it would stop at $20K [most were expecting $50K / $100K or even straigh to $1M]

Of all the comments I have heard regarding today's bitcoin situation, I have concluded these are the two prevailing views on the street:

1. Bitcoin is bouncing back into bull market from here after forming the $6K double bottom
2. Bitcoin is going down to $5K or $3K or $1K from here, no break

If we believe in contrarian investing, then these 2 are the only scenarios that will NOT happen.

Hence we are looking at options like

a. consolidating around $7K-$8K for a long time then go down AGAIN / go up slowly [yes I know. Hurts my brain thinking about consolidating here then go DOWN MORE]
b. bouncing back to $10K - $11.5K area consolidating there then go back down to lower than $6K - a huge bulltrap set up
c. going to zero
d. to $1M in a few years time

personally I think option a / b is looking most likely - as they are least talked / thought about [aren't we all surprised by how many more people are talking about c or d instead of a and b!] - according to the principle of contrarian investing

Let me know what you think!

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April 05, 2018, 02:20:54 PM
 #2

The main thing here is that every form of analysis or way of looking at the market, makes sense and doesn't make sense. I don't rule out a further decline with a lower consolidation range, but in the same way, I don't rule out a further increase with a higher consolidation range. It's a 50/50 situation impossible to correctly predict. I just make sure I have enough coins and enough fiat to put in action, and that's the only thing that makes sense for me in current time frame. Long term speaking, the way is only up. If people think otherwise, they are just retarded. This market as time goes by more and more transforms into a professional market, and that's what we all should be aiming for. This kindergarten will soon become an institutional playing ground.

Some things to look forward to;

* Global LN deployment.
* Coin backed funds.
* ETF's.
* More professional parties taking over exchanges.
* Block halving.
* Bitcoin obtaining legal status in more countries.
* Stock exchanges getting involved.

You probably don't need to guess what I am doing when the price is going down further. Wink

fabiorem
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April 05, 2018, 02:32:08 PM
 #3

We are in a bear market and the sentiment is very bearish, ultra-bearish. There is already one user talking about sub-one digit numbers, which is technically impossible, but this is how the sentiment is going. Even me who was predicting 100k by the end of the year had changed opinion and I'm now guessing we will be 10k in December.

The misery index created by Wall Street is on its historical low, surpassing even 2011. We can say for certain that this is the most bearish sentiment the market has ever experimented since bitcoin was created in 2009.

I'm just with the fiat prepared to increase my exposure once we enter the 1-4k area, then I will be buying in small parts until we reach 1k. The biggest parts will be reserved for 1k and 2k. In case we dont reach there and bounce back, there will be no problem for me, since I didnt sell my stash and will be holding until the next halvening and perhaps beyond.
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April 05, 2018, 02:36:58 PM
 #4

Not sure this is a good way on well clear trends  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Contrarian Investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time
Contrarian investing works very well in all markets throughout history.
Last time when btc hit $20K and turned back, permabear never thought it could reach $20K [most were bearish when it hit $7K / $10K], permabull never thought it would stop at $20K [most were expecting $50K / $100K or even straigh to $1M]

Of all the comments I have heard regarding today's bitcoin situation, I have concluded these are the two prevailing views on the street:

1. Bitcoin is bouncing back into bull market from here after forming the $6K double bottom
2. Bitcoin is going down to $5K or $3K or $1K from here, no break

If we believe in contrarian investing, then these 2 are the only scenarios that will NOT happen.

Hence we are looking at options like

a. consolidating around $7K-$8K for a long time then go down AGAIN / go up slowly [yes I know. Hurts my brain thinking about consolidating here then go DOWN MORE]
b. bouncing back to $10K - $11.5K area consolidating there then go back down to lower than $6K - a huge bulltrap set up
c. going to zero
d. to $1M in a few years time

personally I think option a / b is looking most likely - as they are least talked / thought about [aren't we all surprised by how many more people are talking about c or d instead of a and b!] - according to the principle of contrarian investing

Let me know what you think!


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April 05, 2018, 06:46:15 PM
 #5

Consolidating time is getting over. we will start a bull run not a bulltrap.
6k is really bottom for me i will panic below 6k. and i know too many investors will start to panic there

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Lieldoryn
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April 05, 2018, 06:58:32 PM
 #6

I think that now the market is ready for a big jump. It is very difficult to reduce the price. This would have to sell a lot of coins. The whales are enjoying easy pickings. They can leave the market at any time and the price will start to grow very quickly. For me, the price of $ 10,000 was a bottom. I sold bitcoin for $ 11,000 and now I won't buy coins until I see a stable growth.


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April 05, 2018, 07:34:07 PM
 #7

I think consolidation at around $7,000 is the most likely scenario now. We could have some sideways movement. I think it could be more than 6 months of stagnation, after which the bulls lose their patience and any hopes they have. At that point, expect Bitcoin to go below $5,000


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April 06, 2018, 04:27:12 PM
 #8

Contrarian investing works very well in all markets throughout history.
Last time when btc hit $20K and turned back, permabear never thought it could reach $20K [most were bearish when it hit $7K / $10K], permabull never thought it would stop at $20K [most were expecting $50K / $100K or even straigh to $1M]


So, what would have been the choice a contrarian investor ?
Because you only take the numbers you want , and that's not how it's done.

You want to say that permabulls never didn't thought of it stopping at 20 000 and bears never thought of it going pass 20 000 so it was best to sell at 20 000.

BUT!
The same stands for 10 000 , 11 000, 12 000 , 25 000, and 34 000.
You're just playing with numbers after the event and try to figure out a scheme that would predict an already known answer.

Of all the comments I have heard regarding today's bitcoin situation, I have concluded these are the two prevailing views on the street:

1. Bitcoin is bouncing back into bull market from here after forming the $6K double bottom
2. Bitcoin is going down to $5K or $3K or $1K from here, no break

If we believe in contrarian investing, then these 2 are the only scenarios that will NOT happen.

So it could go up and down. How did you figure this out?


Hence we are looking at options like
a. consolidating around $7K-$8K for a long time then go down AGAIN / go up slowly [yes I know. Hurts my brain thinking about consolidating here then go DOWN MORE]
b. bouncing back to $10K - $11.5K area consolidating there then go back down to lower than $6K - a huge bulltrap set up
c. going to zero
d. to $1M in a few years time

personally I think option a / b is looking most likely - as they are least talked / thought about [aren't we all surprised by how many more people are talking about c or d instead of a and b!] - according to the principle of contrarian investing

Just one day after your prediction and options a and b (your choices) are not looking too god.
So much for the contrarian investing.




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April 06, 2018, 05:00:33 PM
 #9

Looking at the way on how you broke down the bits, it still ends to a broad-ended and confusing conclusion: there are always a few scenarios that is most likely to happen compared to the most talked about scenarios which are still likely to happen. So, contrarian investing, IMO, is just like any other forms of analyses existing right now: they can't give you even a 90% success rate, so it's still pretty useless to apply on your trading schemes and it's no different to other methods of analyzing trends and predicting future price movements. Price goes up and down, we all know that, no need for other fancy terminologies as they are all essentially the same.

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April 06, 2018, 05:02:43 PM
 #10

The whole thing is certainly far too volatile for any sensible person to spend their hard earned cash on at the present time.  That's my opinion.  there is no guarantee it will rise in any meaningful way any time soon.  And if it goes up to say even 8k the day traders will be along in a flash to swipe the lot.  If it falls to say 5k it would be tempting to buy in at that level.  But I wouldn't buy at this price around 6.5 or so
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April 06, 2018, 09:53:58 PM
 #11

Even if I would see a $5000, $4000, $3000, $2000 or even $1000 value for bitcoin it would only be a great opportunity to buy however I am still positive that bitcoin price will recover even though there are many that had sold their holdings because of panic we can choose from that value what can be the bottom for this down trend then the much awaited bull run will continue I am not pretty sure when can it be, But holding and waiting is not a bad idea.














 

 

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magneto
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April 07, 2018, 05:46:35 AM
 #12

Contrarian Investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time
Contrarian investing works very well in all markets throughout history.
Last time when btc hit $20K and turned back, permabear never thought it could reach $20K [most were bearish when it hit $7K / $10K], permabull never thought it would stop at $20K [most were expecting $50K / $100K or even straigh to $1M]

Of all the comments I have heard regarding today's bitcoin situation, I have concluded these are the two prevailing views on the street:

1. Bitcoin is bouncing back into bull market from here after forming the $6K double bottom
2. Bitcoin is going down to $5K or $3K or $1K from here, no break

If we believe in contrarian investing, then these 2 are the only scenarios that will NOT happen.

Hence we are looking at options like

a. consolidating around $7K-$8K for a long time then go down AGAIN / go up slowly [yes I know. Hurts my brain thinking about consolidating here then go DOWN MORE]
b. bouncing back to $10K - $11.5K area consolidating there then go back down to lower than $6K - a huge bulltrap set up
c. going to zero
d. to $1M in a few years time

personally I think option a / b is looking most likely - as they are least talked / thought about [aren't we all surprised by how many more people are talking about c or d instead of a and b!] - according to the principle of contrarian investing

Let me know what you think!



I think that scenario a and b is probably what's going to happen.

Either there will be somewhat of a bull trap with bitcoin suddenly surging in value from this point, and after the bull trap BTC going down more; or that bitcoin will just stay at in the range of $6000-7000, but going down further as the support is slowly broken down and there is no sign of any bullish movements.

We're not going to see real rally until we actually hit the bottom of this bear trend, possibly $4000. I think though that we've entered the long term buy zone at this level, $7000 or below per coin is a definite buy for me if I had the resources to do it.

Option c is not possible, bitcoin is not going to zero even in the worst case scenario. There will be huge amount of buyers under $4000 let alone under $1000 to prevent BTC from going to zero.

Option d is possible, but it'll take more than a few years and will probably take at least 3 bull markets like 2017 and mass adoption happening in order for you to happen.

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