Contrarian investing works very well in all markets throughout history.
Last time when btc hit $20K and turned back, permabear never thought it could reach $20K [most were bearish when it hit $7K / $10K], permabull never thought it would stop at $20K [most were expecting $50K / $100K or even straigh to $1M]
So, what would have been the choice a contrarian investor ?
Because you only take the numbers you want , and that's not how it's done.
You want to say that permabulls never didn't thought of it stopping at 20 000 and bears never thought of it going pass 20 000 so it was best to sell at 20 000.
BUT!
The same stands for 10 000 , 11 000, 12 000 , 25 000, and 34 000.
You're just playing with numbers after the event and try to figure out a scheme that would predict an already known answer.
Of all the comments I have heard regarding today's bitcoin situation, I have concluded these are the two prevailing views on the street:
1. Bitcoin is bouncing back into bull market from here after forming the $6K double bottom
2. Bitcoin is going down to $5K or $3K or $1K from here, no break
If we believe in contrarian investing, then these 2 are the only scenarios that will NOT happen.
So it could go up and down. How did you figure this out?
Hence we are looking at options like
a. consolidating around $7K-$8K for a long time then go down AGAIN / go up slowly [yes I know. Hurts my brain thinking about consolidating here then go DOWN MORE]
b. bouncing back to $10K - $11.5K area consolidating there then go back down to lower than $6K - a huge bulltrap set up
c. going to zero
d. to $1M in a few years time
personally I think option a / b is looking most likely - as they are least talked / thought about [aren't we all surprised by how many more people are talking about c or d instead of a and b!] - according to the principle of contrarian investing
Just one day after your prediction and options a and b (your choices) are not looking too god.
So much for the contrarian investing.