Future price of bitcoin - logarithmic chart

[BitChick]

$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

I have a feeling that $300 for the end of 2013 seemed a bit high a year ago too!    Granted, this still seems impossible but who knows.  With the rate of adoption it is more likely then winning the lottery at least!

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[antimattercrusader]

...more likely then winning the lottery at least!

This.

I frequently use this on people who think I'm crazy for investing, but seem to think lottery tickets are the shit. I probably will not become a millionaire with this, but that said it is the most probable means I have of achieve that goal at this time. Certainly more probable than lottery tickets. More so than a start up business investment (at this moment in my life & current circumstances).

So we shall see, it is indeed more likely than willing the lotto!

[BitChick]

...more likely then winning the lottery at least!

This.

I frequently use this on people who think I'm crazy for investing, but seem to think lottery tickets are the shit. I probably will not become a millionaire with this, but that said it is the most probable means I have of achieve that goal at this time. Certainly more probable than lottery tickets. More so than a start up business investment (at this moment in my life & current circumstances).

So we shall see, it is indeed more likely than willing the lotto!

Having tried to start our own business with my husband, and investing much more then we have done in Bitcoin then having the business fail, I can already attest that we have eared 100% more with Bitcoin then a business venture did!  The best part of all is seeing the growth of our small investment (during rallys of course) while just hanging around the house watching a movie or even sleeping!  I joke that it is a much easier way to make money then working endless hours on a start-up company.    Hopefully it all pays off for us in the end, but it takes risk to earn rewards in life.

[rocks]

$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

The thing to remember is in 2013 we have a few millionaires and the Bitcoin Investment Trust investing in the $1M - $20M range.

This is nothing. Bond, stock and gold funds are in the $100B range

If wall street takes BTC seriously at some point, money flowing into BTC will easily be 10,000x to 100,000x higher than we have today.

The question for when/if $100K BTC happens is simply when/if serious money starts to take BTC seriously....

[BitChick]

$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

The thing to remember is in 2013 we have a few millionaires and the Bitcoin Investment Trust investing in the $1M - $20M range.

This is nothing. Bond, stock and gold funds are in the $100B range

If wall street takes BTC seriously at some point, money flowing into BTC will easily be 10,000x to 100,000x higher than we have today.

The question for when/if $100K BTC happens is simply when/if serious money starts to take BTC seriously....

  That is my thinking too.  It is tempting to take out a loan just to invest with the thought of this.  But I guess even having a handful of coins at this early in the game (I think anything under $1000 is probably cheap!) is a great thing for us all.  Perhaps we really don't even understand ourselves how big this could become. 

[Phinnaeus Gage]

As pointed out before, its cool, but also a load of shite, as past performance is not an indication of future results, especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin.

Also this: http://xkcd.com/605/

Heh funny chart but little bit exaggerated couse it is based on only one single discrete data. Bitcoin chart is based on milions of discrete datas.
Topic's chart looks enormously crazy for first look but, if worth of dollar will collapse then it can become true and then we will have some kind of devaluation of bitcoin. Am i right?

So you are saying that a million random data point have more weight than a single random event, when predicting the future?

The post reminds me of when I first read...

[mvidetto]

Let's hope this graph turns out to be actually a real one years later. 

A $ was in cents in 1950s.

Yeah but the dollar sucks and bitcoin doesn't.  This is why bitcoin has the capability to have a higher market capitalization than dollars.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

$100,000 per BTC by 2016 seems a bit high.

The thing to remember is in 2013 we have a few millionaires and the Bitcoin Investment Trust investing in the $1M - $20M range.

This is nothing. Bond, stock and gold funds are in the $100B range

If wall street takes BTC seriously at some point, money flowing into BTC will easily be 10,000x to 100,000x higher than we have today.

The question for when/if $100K BTC happens is simply when/if serious money starts to take BTC seriously....

Your post made me think of something. I wonder if that's why some of them fat wallets that have sat idle for awhile started moving coins out.

[CMMPro]

We tend to overestimate rates of change in the short term, and vastly underestimate them in the long term.

For now the simplified linear regression analysis presented here may be fine for the short term but in the coming months all predictions of fiat/xbt will likely prove to be vastly underestimated.

[antimattercrusader]

Having tried to start our own business with my husband, and investing much more then we have done in Bitcoin then having the business fail, I can already attest that we have eared 100% more with Bitcoin then a business venture did!  The best part of all is seeing the growth of our small investment (during rallys of course) while just hanging around the house watching a movie or even sleeping!  I joke that it is a much easier way to make money then working endless hours on a start-up company.    Hopefully it all pays off for us in the end, but it takes risk to earn rewards in life.

Absolutely, and I am not at all against starting businesses. I hate the 8-5 life with such a passion that... well, nevermind. My situation at the moment is trying to get my wife through school with no debt - we're almost there. That means, for the moment, I have an extremely low risk appetite. If I were to quit my reliable slave labor income producer, and fail - we'd be up shit creek. Anyway, that will change soon though, I have a few business ideas I'm running the numbers on. I've run a couple semi-successful small part time businesses to try to make ends meet, so have some experience although limited. The way I look at it is, even if I swing and miss with a business, at least the ride will be more interesting and fulfilling than copy and pasting all day, and there is always optimism. The office click-click monkey life is very bleak. Even if it fails, I tried, enjoyed trying - and can try again next time.

Until then (and after!), bitcoin!

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

As pointed out before, its cool, but also a load of shite, as past performance is not an indication of future results, especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin.

Technically, past performance is the ONLY indication of future results, for anything ever. You only know that trying to move your finger will actually move your finger because it has worked in the past. You only really know that letting go of your pencil will result in it falling down instead of falling up because of past performance.

Also, "the trend is your friend" is a trading adage for good reason.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it sure as hell is an indicator. If it weren't, humans would have no way to make sense of the world at all, because nothing would be even remotely predictable; all would be pure chaos. The consistency and regularity of phenomena is the very basis by which one navigates the world and manipulates it to one's benefit.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Looks pretty accurate to me. It all comes back to the binary bet: either Bitcoin more or less follows this chart, or it goes to zero.

The investment proposition is simple. Determine what you think the odds of those two outcomes are, decide how confident you are in those odds, and place your bets accordingly (based on your own life situation in the context of those two outcomes and their probabilities, as well as your risk tolerance).

[Zarathustra]

Looks pretty accurate to me. It all comes back to the binary bet: either Bitcoin more or less follows this chart, or it goes to zero.

The investment proposition is simple. Determine what you think the odds of those two outcomes are, decide how confident you are in those odds, and place your bets accordingly (based on your own life situation in the context of those two outcomes and their probabilities, as well as your risk tolerance).

Why accurate?


And this one isn't?

[DeathAndTaxes]

What is the r squared for your regression or did you simply draw a line on a chart?

The OP isn't saying Bitcoin will do "this" simply showing that there the line drawn has a high correlation to the known historical price points.  In other words the chart of actual price points can be simplified/reduced to the line drawn.   If the trend continues (and it may not) it will generally follow the line drawn.  In other words MATH ROCKS.

[Zarathustra]

What is the r squared for your regression or did you simply draw a line on a chart?

The OP isn't saying Bitcoin will do "this" simply showing that there the line drawn has a high correlation to the known historical price points. 

In other words the chart of actual price points can be simplified/reduced to the line drawn.   If the trend continues (and it may not) it will generally follow the line drawn.  In other words MATH ROCKS.

Can't price points be reduced to the line of my chart as well, if you simply choose fewer price points?

[DeathAndTaxes]

Well if you are choosing point then you are just drawing a line where you want it to be.  It is a pretty line.  I like that it is blue.  The complete lack of antialiasing give is a kinda retro vibe. Not much value beyond that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression

 

[greaterninja]

Hello,

I've just seen link for interesting chart on btc-e chat.

One user posted this:



Looks crazy couse this is logarithmic scale. Hard to believe that this prediction will happen but..

What do you think about this?

Ok, one of the very first things about statistics is that extrapolation based on data becomes more innacurate the further you go out.

100k/btc by 2016 does not seem real.   The rate of growth per time is decreasing as time goes by.  Bitcoin is much more likely to slow down in percentage / proportional growth.
With that said I believe it will hit $1,000 to $30,000 in 5 years.   $10,000 to $30,000 is highly probable in 5 years per bitcoin.

[Zarathustra]

Well if you are choosing point then you are just drawing a line where you want it to be.  It is a pretty line.  I like that it is blue.  The complete lack of antialiasing give is a kinda retro vibe. Not much value beyond that.
 

No, it's not me who chooses the data points. What, if the computer chooses only monthly (median) or yearly data points?

I'm not a mathematician, I am only a philosopher and always happy to learn something. That's why I asked the Genius. Is it mathematically impossible to paint different lines? Who chooses R squared?

[XxionxX]

Why accurate?


And this one isn't?

What, I don't even... Do you even math? How does that correlate to anything at all? At least the OP's chart had an idea of where it wanted to go, your chart makes my frontal lobe hurt trying to understand what possessed you to put that line there.

I am seriously not trying to mock you or anything. I just don't follow what your point is.

I guess you are tying to say that bitcoin will fail? Care to make a bet on it? Lets say that you owe me 1btc in 2020 if bitcoin is successful and I will owe you $420usd which is the ATH of bitcoin of today. Seems fair right? tollface.jpg

I mean bitcoin will fail so you would be making out like a bandit Your chart says that we will never break the ATH again! Upon coser examination it looks like your chart is still bullish, just a lot lower

But seriously, what is up with this chart you made? I want to understand your position.

[XxionxX]

Well if you are choosing point then you are just drawing a line where you want it to be.  It is a pretty line.  I like that it is blue.  The complete lack of antialiasing give is a kinda retro vibe. Not much value beyond that.
 

No, it's not me who chooses the data points. What, if the computer chooses only monthly (median) or yearly data points?

I'm not a mathematician, I am only a philosopher and always happy to learn something. That's why I asked the Genius. Is it mathematically impossible to paint different lines? Who chooses R squared?

If you wanted to get a really good guess with all of the datapoints, you could take every possible set of datapoints from 2 points to all of them, and make an average out of all the different lines you made. If I had to guess, I bet it would be similar to the OP's line. But I am also not a mathematician, I haven't passed Calculus yet

That would be a cool chart though.

I do agree that the chart could use a few more lines though. A 'neutral' line, a bullish line, and a bearish line.