Future price of bitcoin - logarithmic chart

[PrymeTyme]

Actually if you want to get technical about it the upper and lower limits should flare out as they extend in order to show uncertainty.
We call this a "trumpet chart" because they flare out like a trumpet.

Basically as we get further into the future the uncertainty increases....the trend line stays straight but the upper and lower predictions open up.
How much they flare out is based on the level of mathematical uncertainty.

erm , nope   we have no uncertainty at hands..(chart)

what i drew in is a potential channel , ie. a diagonal trading range ..  with upper and lower limits , (where price got rejected)
waht is a trading range ? .. balance ... thats it..  (thats how markets move balance>imbalance and so on)

and a diagonal trading range so to speak..a channel ?

well in this case .. its a steady rise in price .. due to an increase in demand or a decrease in supply or both  


ps. if you meant if i would connect the two highs (bubbles) .. then it wouldnt be uncertainty .. but indecision .. ie Higher lows and Lower Highs)

[mmortal03]

Right, but if you change the line by selecting a subset of the data, you should be able to describe your methodology and a reason why it should be accepted as a model.  I have a feeling your methodology was "this looks good".

Yes, pure guessing based on the assumption that the 8 month-period of October 10 to June 11, in which the price went up thousandfold, will never be repeated again.

Then, instead of pure guessing, just start a logarithmic regression line after June 11 and post that. Just drawing an eyeballed line IS simply less legitimate.

1) I'm completely free to paint what I want.

And everyone else here is free to tell you how ridiculous painting a random line is.

2) I think, linear regression doesn't make sense even if we exclude the first Bubble.

Using some form of log regression doesn't make sense to you, but drawing a random line does? You're free to have whatever theory you want, but practical theories usually have some way to be translated into math.

[rampantparanoia]

I still refer to this chart quite often... has proven to be fairly accurate

https://www.tradingview.com/v/fy8wpDSZ/

[GOB]

I still refer to this chart quite often... has proven to be fairly accurate

https://www.tradingview.com/v/fy8wpDSZ/

That's a cool chart. I'd like to see it updated. I checked the price right now (~$420 on 2013-11-14) and we're topping out on that triangle.

[CMMPro]

I still refer to this chart quite often... has proven to be fairly accurate

https://www.tradingview.com/v/fy8wpDSZ/

That's a cool chart. I'd like to see it updated. I checked the price right now (~$420 on 2013-11-14) and we're topping out on that triangle.

Go to full screen then hit the "play" button to "load new bars" on the right side middle.

I like the chart also but I don't think we are moving in a giant triangle....that is exaggerated by the 2011 bubble.
The next "bubble" will probably make this chart go crazy.

[BitchicksHusband]

Interesting chart.  The only thing that makes me wonder is that we are saying we will have only $2300 by the end of next year, but bitcoin so far has been going 10× about every 10 months.  So that would be over $4000 easily.  (Don't get me wrong, I'll take either one, but I was just trying to figure out the difference.)

[Zarathustra]

Using some form of log regression doesn't make sense to you, but drawing a random line does?

Yes, because a line that is painted by a genius of prediction has more predictive value than a regression line which includes the very first periods of trading.

[theecoinomist]

Hahah and we thought that chart was bullish 

Projected January Price: $330

[JimboToronto]

Projected January Price: $330

Projected by whom?

LOL 

[jubalix]

As pointed out before, its cool, but also a load of shite, as past performance is not an indication of future results, especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin.

Also this: http://xkcd.com/605/

see  I disagree with this.

Physics and mechanics, biology etc is built upon extracting future performance from pas events and is very good at  it. Thats why that roof is not falling down on your head.

Bitcoin, or rather crypto's is physics/thermodynamics event being related to less entropy creation versus any competing currency due to central bank manipulation and central govt interference, over taxation, negative regualtion. In fact all systems are like this.

The problem is the finance industry to  cover their collective ass have this past is no indication of future along with economists who have massively differing views.

Currency and economies that minimise entropy creation will prevail over time as a consistent and largely predictable rate.

The log graph is good until the market share cap is reached.

[theecoinomist]

Projected January Price: $330

Projected by whom?

LOL 

Projected by OPs chart.. Did you even read this thread