Great New Crashcorrection (fulfilled)

[pera]

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%20bubble&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q

(note that we are in the begging of this month)

[windjc]

the people who are saying that a huge crash isn't likely to occur (on the scale of last april, at least).. seem to have a plausible explanation. but then again, how can anything sustain this amount of growth without "growing pains"? coins have nearly quadrupled in a 2-3 week span.. that is nuts!

There can certainly be a pullback. 10-15% or so would actually be healthy.

But with China going ballastic and with the media attention of the run up, I would suspect that a lot of fresh $$$ will come into the USD exchanges on Tuesday (Monday is a holiday).

[zedicus]

It is quite interesting there is little to no volume beneath it like April. Nice chart.

It's based on Mt Gox though.

Ahh, that's better. Is there a combined volume chart somewhere, or who's the leader now? Bitstamp? China?

here is a look at bitcoinity's data for combined volume vs price:
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#ccacdfdiaa

bitcoinity ftw!

[Ibian]

the people who are saying that a huge crash isn't likely to occur (on the scale of last april, at least).. seem to have a plausible explanation. but then again, how can anything sustain this amount of growth without "growing pains"? coins have nearly quadrupled in a 2-3 week span.. that is nuts!

Limited supply with growing demand and increasing distrust of fiat = price keeps rising. There is nothing mysterious or unsustainable about this.

Bitcoin is unique, there has never been anything like it before. If it ends up becoming a major economic power then the insane rewards we are earning right now is our reward for helping to make it happen.

[Taras]

[bitwhizz]

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%20bubble&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q

(note that we are in the begging of this month)

Nice! i like that pera, well done

[beetcoin]

the people who are saying that a huge crash isn't likely to occur (on the scale of last april, at least).. seem to have a plausible explanation. but then again, how can anything sustain this amount of growth without "growing pains"? coins have nearly quadrupled in a 2-3 week span.. that is nuts!

Limited supply with growing demand and increasing distrust of fiat = price keeps rising. There is nothing mysterious or unsustainable about this.

Bitcoin is unique, there has never been anything like it before. If it ends up becoming a major economic power then the insane rewards we are earning right now is our reward for helping to make it happen.

still doesn't explain how it can grow that big, that fast.. without being "corrected." a 400% return on investment in 2-3 weeks is quite.. a lot.

[windjc]

the people who are saying that a huge crash isn't likely to occur (on the scale of last april, at least).. seem to have a plausible explanation. but then again, how can anything sustain this amount of growth without "growing pains"? coins have nearly quadrupled in a 2-3 week span.. that is nuts!

Limited supply with growing demand and increasing distrust of fiat = price keeps rising. There is nothing mysterious or unsustainable about this.

Bitcoin is unique, there has never been anything like it before. If it ends up becoming a major economic power then the insane rewards we are earning right now is our reward for helping to make it happen.

still doesn't explain how it can grow that big, that fast.. without being "corrected."

There have been small corrections.

What China is doing right now is the first thing I have seen that looks parabolic. But the other exchanges are not following.

[BitcoinAshley]

What does it mean when there is almost no "Volume" like that?  Yet the price goes way up?

UPDATE:  does it matter if there's a combined chart?   The price is also just gox.... so the volume is just gox ...

The reason it matters should be fairly obvious. Say there is an exchange with 5% of the volume of Gox. The price will still be roughly the same! Simply because of arbitrage with other exchanges. In Bitcoin world, a spread of 8-12% might not be uncommon, but it's not like they're wildly running in opposite directions.

So a price of $375 on an exchange with a tiny amount of volume compared to April is not a bad sign if, say, there is another exchange with a more reasonable amount of volume (i.e. all gox's volume are belong to China) compared to April and the same or similar price.

In order to accurately judge volume over time against the price, in a situation such as this where exchange volume has shifted quite significantly since April, we'd have to see combined volume, virtually regardless of which exchange's price we were using.

So we might look at Gox volume now vs april, and we look at BTCchina and BitStamp volume now vs. April. Now we can see why there is a problem with just looking at the volume of one exchange over such a long time period!  Then we look at all the other exchanges too. Then the fucking permabear peanut gallery starts piping in "But China has 0% trading so their volume is fake, and therefore their price is fake, and chinese fake all their statistics, and BTCChina doesn't even exist, and blah blah blah, and blah blah blah."

Oh, peanut gallery.

EDIT: Oh, and since I opened the Volume can of worms - The combined volume chart @ Bitcoinity covers all known online exchanges - but there is also the possibility that a lot of the "big money" that has been entering Bitcoin has been doing so via other avenues. One could say that this would eventually be reflected in the major exchanges, but not necessarily. Big investors might find the resources to buy directly from miners ('clean coin' concerns) and this volume might not find its way to the exchanges. Then the miners would have less to sell to the exchanges, lowering supply, and supply and demand, blah blah blah. OTOH, this might be insignificant. But don't dismiss either high or low volume without considering all possibilities.

[Chuck]

At some point, the general consensus becomes "this thing is going up way too fast. it's going to crash".

I think we've been there for a few days.

But then, it keeps going up... Maybe it's disbelief that the super obvious thing ("we're going to crash!") could be so obvious, and yet it still hasn't crashed... this creates doubt, so we wait a little longer, unwilling to take the plunge of cashing out. Maybe we do sell a few coins, but not all of them...

At some point (I think we are there this weekend) the only people buying are the crazy people (who trust their BTC/cash to these somewhat shady exchanges) while the more sober of us sit out and watch bitcoinity in disbelief. A lot of these people probably sold already, and are buying back in at a loss, because they're crazy.

BTC is now at $4B market cap. These tiny exchanges did not get $2B in cash deposits in the last few weeks. It's just a small group of crazy traders driving this thing up, and once enough of them panic, this thing is going down hard.

I wish we could get a meme going, like "the moon is $400!", so we could make this crash happen sooner and not cause as much damage as the last one.

But yeah, it's going to crash. Very soon.

I was thinking of the possibility of a new crash to come this weekend. Seems to me that the recent growth is too big to be sustained, it's really exponential!

[dnaleor]

bitstamp is loosing it. Gox has enough support, but bitstamp isweak. hope that changes when the majority of EUrope wakes up

[derpinheimer]

bitstamp is loosing it. Gox has enough support, but bitstamp isweak. hope that changes when the majority of EUrope wakes up

Bitstamp was about 2mil bids pre-bubble.

It went to ~$800k in the SR drop.

Its now $5mill and has been since like $200.

Gox is steadily rising in bids, but not nearly quickly enough. A correction is certain.. a crash? Not unlikely...

[DoomDumas]

I was thinking of the possibility of a new crash to come this weekend. Seems to me that the recent growth is too big to be sustained, it's really exponential!

Before calling exponential, please start by using a log chart.  Compared to the 2 previous bubble, we are just in the begining..  long way to go before pop !

[pera]

I was thinking of the possibility of a new crash to come this weekend. Seems to me that the recent growth is too big to be sustained, it's really exponential!

Before calling exponential, please start by using a log chart.  Compared to the 2 previous bubble, we are just in the begining..  long way to go before pop !

not really:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328855.0

[notthematrix]

The bubble you are seeing is the FIAT bubble.
You are looking in the mirror.
Why economists fail on understanding Bitcoin?
history was always with a inflationary currency.
This one is a deflationary one that's why all stats will fail here ,, dollar is inflationary since the beginning it was baked by a Limited supply of gold but at that time nobody knew how much this was precisely! and even now we don't know the amount of ounces gold in
planet earth!
But,,, with Bitcoin it will be 21.000.000 so , its a known constant! we are currently at 11925350 BTC so that's also known... and that's why it does what it does.
its the first time in history that we know the total of supply available on forehand to a currency system.

" until some Bitcoin holders are willing to part with their Bitcoins?"
Or PART of their bitcoins , dont forget that 1 bitcoin is fungible in 100.000.000 units!
so they only need to spend smaller parts to buy and keep the system running

[TERA]

It's true. I can feel the weight of 2 billion dollars of new market cap and a bearish divergence on the chart. Even if you look at the log chart the current slope is way too high and fast even by bubble standards. We are due for a major high volume correction. There are historically several of these during each bubble. $300 is likely.

The corrections we have seen so far have been childs play - caused by 500-2K sells. They recover not because there is support but because the seller stopped. What happens when there are 5K sells, or 20K sells.

[Tzupy]

When the right price will be reached, there could be a mass sale of 100k.
But that 'right price' could be 500$ or more, if 385$ wasn't the very peak.

[TERA]

I'm not talking about THE crash but the several intermediate 150K corrections that happen during each bubble.

[Tzupy]

I'm not sure what you mean by '150k correction', that could take us down to 50$.
A 'normal' correction that should happen very soon could go down to 300$, maybe 280$ (fingers crossed  ).

[TERA]

I'm not sure what you mean by '150k correction', that could take us down to 50$.
A 'normal' correction that should happen very soon could go down to 300$, maybe 280$ (fingers crossed  ).

Oops I mean a 150K volume down day. Not one gigantic dump.