We're WAY too CONFIDENT about the current BTC Price. See picture in topic.

[adamstgBit]

True. It may be too soon to say, but, I sold today at $360 and it's dropped to about ~$339 soon after.

So you sold on gox? I was wondering who still did that.

Hehe, I decided to try a couple days ago, to double-check that they're as bad as I've been suggesting. I only had Dwolla linked, was AML-verified ages ago, so tried to link new bank account for wire AFTER selling BTC.

"Hello Kludge,

We regret to inform you that the Withdrawal Centre method you created for CP FCU on Fri 08 Nov 2013 05:27:51 PM GMT was rejected by our validation system, for the following reason :

To have your bank account verified you should first fill in the identity form associated to your Mt.Gox account(write in your name, DOB, address etc).

In order you can do that, we have to downgrade your account. Once you filled the form, your account will be upgraded to "verified" status again.

When your account is downgraded you will not be able to complete trades or do any transactions, so we suggest you to finish all activities on your account, tell us that you are ready, we will downgrade your account, you will fill in the form and let us know asap that you are done so that your account can be returned to verified status quickly."

fuuuuuuuuuuuuck! Pretty confident in a crash, so just going to wait it out, convert to BTC, sell half on BFX, hold the rest.

i dont get it.

gox sucked yesterday and it still sucks, why would price crash because of this?

[Kluge]

True. It may be too soon to say, but, I sold today at $360 and it's dropped to about ~$339 soon after.

So you sold on gox? I was wondering who still did that.

Hehe, I decided to try a couple days ago, to double-check that they're as bad as I've been suggesting. I only had Dwolla linked, was AML-verified ages ago, so tried to link new bank account for wire AFTER selling BTC.

"Hello Kludge,

We regret to inform you that the Withdrawal Centre method you created for CP FCU on Fri 08 Nov 2013 05:27:51 PM GMT was rejected by our validation system, for the following reason :

To have your bank account verified you should first fill in the identity form associated to your Mt.Gox account(write in your name, DOB, address etc).

In order you can do that, we have to downgrade your account. Once you filled the form, your account will be upgraded to "verified" status again.

When your account is downgraded you will not be able to complete trades or do any transactions, so we suggest you to finish all activities on your account, tell us that you are ready, we will downgrade your account, you will fill in the form and let us know asap that you are done so that your account can be returned to verified status quickly."

fuuuuuuuuuuuuck! Pretty confident in a crash, so just going to wait it out, convert to BTC, sell half on BFX, hold the rest.

i dont get it.

gox sucked yesterday and it still sucks, why would price crash because of this?

No, that was just a response to the question of who still used Gox. Price won't crash because they want me to resubmit AML documentation without giving a reason.

[accord01]

this post is off... crash will not happen anymore below 300... next crash could be 700 to 500... or 1000 to 600.  we are not confident enough in current btc price if anything.  current price is expected

[Hyena]

I'd ask you this - what would have to happen to bitcoin that no one expects?
a) it becomes obsolete, value goes to 0 (unlikely)
b) the current "bubble" is actually a correction and it won't burst
c) the current trend literally ends up near the Voyager 1 and this is the last parabolic rise we will ever see

Because for the market to be generally unpredictable it has to behave accordingly. History repeats itself only until people start noticing it and then it stops repeating to show the chaotic nature of the universe.

However, my personal suspicion is that we will see VERY aggressive buy-ins so the price spikes to da moon but then as soon as someone needs to cash out the price comes back down again and continues its normal slow rise. To be exact in numbers, it will spike to 1000$ and then comes back to 200$ and will be remembered as just a spike not a real bubble.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

True. It may be too soon to say, but, I sold today at $360 and it's dropped to about ~$339 soon after.

as its 385 

[superresistant]

It's not the same situation.

This time it is China buying Bitcoin.

[Coinseeker]

OP you are right to be concerned.  Everyone with common sense is concerned. This is not normal, natural or healthy "growth".  This is not a rally based on long term utility or any specific adoption, this is a fear based rally as people are afraid they're going to "miss the boat".  Numbers don't lie and this is nothing more than pure impulse buying.  I'm sure enjoying it, I love the value my BTC is worth but stepping back from all that, there is nothing sustainable about this.  It is hysteria and when that hysteria fades, there are going to be ALOT of broken hearted bag holders.

[maursader]

OP you are right to be concerned.  Everyone with common sense is concerned. This is not normal, natural or healthy "growth".  This is not a rally based on long term utility or any specific adoption, this is a fear based rally as people are afraid they're going to "miss the boat".  Numbers don't lie and this is nothing more than pure impulse buying.  I'm sure enjoying it, I love the value my BTC is worth but stepping back from all that, there is nothing sustainable about this.  It is hysteria and when that hysteria fades, there are going to be ALOT of broken hearted bag holders.

I just hope that this isn't a massive pump and dump by the Asian markets, you know?

[BitcoinAshley]

Great, another person miscalls the top. 

Carry on!

[Bitobsessed]

Lots of people are still WAY too confident in the current value of the US Dollar. Being air funded and all, having Ben Bernanke screwing up beyond belief, I say it's an accident waiting tot happen.

Current USD value is still very high, it may easily fall below 0.001 BTC.

+1   

[maursader]

Great, another person miscalls the top. 

Carry on!

Thankfully this is the "speculation" part of the forum where no answer is right or wrong, but open-ended. I think you must potentially maintain a lot of BTC to have a strong opinion like that.

[zhangweiwu]

Same chart, with red circles:

What in the circles are quite different. papaminer outlined it with the blue circle.

In the April case, the price go straight up, and experienced a reversal when it crash down. In the current case, the trend is the opposite, the upward trend went through a reversal for a few days before it continues to the top - for some speculators, it is a Fibonacci retracement, which is a clear signal to position long and expect continues growth - I didn't buy the Fabonacci concept, but only to show that it is NOT the same.

http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/fibonacci-retracements.html

[Coinseeker]

OP you are right to be concerned.  Everyone with common sense is concerned. This is not normal, natural or healthy "growth".  This is not a rally based on long term utility or any specific adoption, this is a fear based rally as people are afraid they're going to "miss the boat".  Numbers don't lie and this is nothing more than pure impulse buying.  I'm sure enjoying it, I love the value my BTC is worth but stepping back from all that, there is nothing sustainable about this.  It is hysteria and when that hysteria fades, there are going to be ALOT of broken hearted bag holders.

I just hope that this isn't a massive pump and dump by the Asian markets, you know?

It may feel like that when it finally does give way, but I think its just "Bitcoin mania".  Like beenie babies, tulip bulbs, etc.  The hysteria will eventually subside, we'll correct and numbers more consistent with actual adoption, utility and yes speculation will establish themselves.  Panic and mega crashes have a way of bringing people back to reality real quick.    Really exciting I will say that.

[btceic]

My concern is the very light volume on new highs, to me this suggests that the new buys/highs are into weak hands. Not that I want a correction but I am expecting one... soon.

[piramida]

My concern is the very light volume on new highs

Really? What is the source of your data? Volume is greater than during the spring run - in BTC - much greater in USD - so I guess your concern is actually about a non-existing issue.

[maursader]

It dropped yet again

[Xer0]

1. BTC takes off, bubble forms
2. Gox screws it - panic
3. we try again
4. Gox cant gox it this time
5. we're gettin higher and higher and i forgot how that song goes on

[hamiltino]

I know whats going on.

It will not go below 300 and it will continue to rise within a short period of time. Lets say within 1 month.

[pera]

I know whats going on.

It will not go below 300 and it will continue to rise within a short period of time. Lets say within 1 month.

bitstamp is 290..

[hamiltino]

Well i failed :/