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Author Topic: Anacyclosis - cycles of society/government  (Read 562 times)
theymos
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April 17, 2018, 11:17:27 PM
Merited by Foxpup (6), krogothmanhattan (1), chimk (1)
 #1

Recently I heard about something that Polybius wrote about 100 years before the fall of the Roman Republic which seems to me to be eerily relevant even today. He predicts that all governments/societies go through a 7-stage cycle: monarchy, kingship, tyranny, aristocracy, oligarchy, democracy, mob-rule, and then from chaos back to monarchy. I see this sequence throughout history (Russia & the Soviet Union comes to mind), and you could place the US at various points on the cycle.

What do you think? Does this idea still have merit 2100+ years later? If so, at what point in the cycle are we in now?

If this cycle is indeed inevitable in politics, then Bitcoin offers a hope of escape, since Bitcoin (and crypto-anarchy generally) is all about removing politics from life. Instead of trusting a king, an aristocracy, or a majority, you structure things so that everyone is and can reasonably be sovereign over his own affairs.

Here's what Polybius wrote, all emphasis and excerpting mine:

Quote from: The Histories
When owing to floods, famines, failure of crops or other such causes there occurs such a destruction of the human race as tradition tells us has more than once happened, and as we must believe will often happen again, all arts and crafts perishing at the same time, then in the course of time, when springing from the survivors as from seeds men have again increased in numbers and just like other animals form herds — it being a matter of course that they too should herd together with those of their kind owing to their natural weakness — it is a necessary consequence that the man who excels in bodily strength and in courage will lead and rule over the rest. We observe and should regard as a most genuine work of nature this very phenomenon in the case of the other animals which act purely by instinct and among whom the strongest are always indisputably the masters — I speak of bulls, boars, cocks, and the like. It is probable then that at the beginning men lived thus, herding together like animals and following the lead of the strongest and bravest, the ruler's strength being here the sole limit to his power and the name we should give his rule being monarchy.

But when in time feelings of sociability and companionship begin to grow in such gatherings of men, than kingship has struck root; and the notions of goodness, justice, and their opposites begin to arise in men. The manner in which these notions come into being is as follows. [...] Now when the leading and most powerful man among the people always throws the weight of his authority on the side of the notions on such matters which generally prevail, and when in the opinion of his subjects he apportions rewards and penalties according to desert, they yield obedience to him no longer because they fear his force, but rather because their judgement approves him; and they join in maintaining his rule even if he is quite enfeebled by age, defending him with one consent and battling against those who conspire to overthrow his rule. Thus by insensible degrees the monarch becomes a king, ferocity and force having yielded the supremacy to reason.

Thus is formed naturally among men the first notion of goodness and justice, and their opposites; this is the beginning and birth of true kingship. For the people maintain the supreme power not only in the hands of these men themselves, but in those of their descendants, from the conviction that those born from and reared by such men will also have principles like to theirs. And if they ever are displeased with the descendants, they now choose their kings and rulers no longer for their bodily strength and brute courage, but for the excellency of their judgement and reasoning powers, as they have gained experience from actual facts of the difference between the one class of qualities and the other. In old times, then, those who had once been chosen to the royal office continued to hold it until they grew old, fortifying and enclosing fine strongholds with walls and acquiring lands, in the one case for the sake of the security of their subjects and in the other to provide them with abundance of the necessities of life. And while pursuing these aims, they were exempt from all vituperation or jealousy, as neither in their dress nor in their food did they make any great distinction, they lived very much like everyone else, not keeping apart from the people. But when they received the office by hereditary succession and found their safety now provided for, and more than sufficient provision of food, they gave way to their appetites owing to this superabundance, and came to think that the rulers must be distinguished from their subjects by a peculiar dress, that there should be a peculiar luxury and variety in the dressing and serving of their viands, and that they should meet with no denial in the pursuit of their amours, however lawless. These habits having given rise in the one case to envy and offence and in the other to an outburst of hatred and passionate resentment, the kingship changed into a tyranny; the first steps towards its overthrow were taken by the subjects, and conspiracies began to be formed. These conspiracies were not the work of the worst men, but of the noblest, most high-spirited, and most courageous, because such men are least able to brook the insolence of princes. The people now having got leaders, would combine with them against the ruling powers for the reasons I stated above; kingship and monarchy would be utterly abolished, and in their place aristocracy would begin to grow. For the commons, as if bound to pay at once their debt of gratitude to the abolishers of monarchy, would make them their leaders and entrust their destinies to them. At first these chiefs gladly assumed this charge and regarded nothing as of greater importance than the common interest, administering the private and public affairs of the people with paternal solicitude. But here again when children inherited this position of authority from their fathers, having no experience of misfortune and none at all of civil equality and liberty of speech, and having been brought up from the cradle amid the evidences of the power and high position of their fathers, they abandoned themselves some to greed of gain and unscrupulous money-making, others to indulgence in wine and the convivial excess which accompanies it, and others again to the violation of women and the rape of boys; and thus converting the aristocracy into an oligarchy aroused in the people feelings similar to those of which  I just spoke, and in consequence met with the same disastrous end as the tyrant. For whenever anyone who has noticed the jealousy and hatred with which you are regarded by the citizens, has the courage to speak or act against the chiefs of the state he has the whole mass of the people ready to back him. Next, when they have either killed or banished the oligarchs, they no longer venture to set a king over them, as they still remember with terror the injustice they suffered from the former ones, nor can they entrust the government with confidence to a select few, with the evidence before them of their recent error in doing so. Thus the only hope still surviving unimpaired is in themselves, and to this they resort, making the state a democracy instead of an oligarchy and assuming the responsibility for the conduct of affairs. Then as long as some of those survive who experienced the evils of oligarchical dominion, they are well pleased with the present form of government, and set a high value on equality and freedom of speech. But when a new generation arises and the democracy falls into the hands of the grandchildren of its founders, they have become so accustomed to freedom and equality that they no longer value them, and begin to aim at pre-eminence; and it is chiefly those of ample fortune who fall into this error. So when they begin to lust for power and cannot attain it through themselves or their own good qualities, they ruin their estates, tempting and corrupting the people in every possible way. And hence when by their foolish thirst for reputation they have created among the masses an appetite for gifts and the habit of receiving them, democracy in its turn is abolished and changes into a rule of force and violence [mob-rule]. For the people, having grown accustomed to feed at the expense of others and to depend for their livelihood on the property of others, as soon as they find a leader who is enterprising but is excluded from the houses of office by his penury, institute the rule of violence; and now uniting their forces massacre, banish, and plunder, until they degenerate again into perfect savages and find once more a master and monarch.

Such is the cycle of political revolution, the course appointed by nature in which constitutions change, disappear, and finally return to the point from which they started. Anyone who clearly perceives this may indeed in speaking of the future of any state be wrong in his estimate of the time the process will take, but if his judgement is not tainted by animosity or jealousy, he will very seldom be mistaken as to the stage of growth or decline it has reached, and as to the form into which it will change. And especially in the case of the Roman state will this method enable us to arrive at a knowledge of its formation, growth, and greatest perfection, and likewise of the change for the worse which is sure to follow some day. For, as I said, this state, more than any other, has been formed and has grown naturally, and will undergo a natural decline and change to its contrary.

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April 18, 2018, 08:03:24 AM
 #2

I think this could still hold true. It's just that the progression is much slower with the number of adjacent country, the number of resources and moral standing. If for example a country has fallen to mob rule, it would be easier for adjacent countries to invade it therefore not collapsing to monarcy (unless the adjacent country is monarchy). Next if it's people are well taken care of then it would take amich slower pace to mob rule. Lastly, if moral standing is strong, it would not go down to mob rule but will hsve a smooth political transition.

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April 20, 2018, 05:18:02 PM
Last edit: April 20, 2018, 06:19:34 PM by Krsps
Merited by theymos (1)
 #3

Thank you for this profoundly insightful post. Polybius was certainly a visionary for the ages and saw things very accurately from a high perspective. And to me, this explains exactly what we are going through now.

The Millennium generation is a group that, more than any in recent generations have had everything handed to them on a silver platter. Along with this they were always told they were more special than anyone. It is certainly true that everyone is special, but because of this exaggerated emphasis, the results have  produced  many who think it is their right and privilege to take what ever they want with little regard to ethics of fairness and integrity and sometimes kindness.  It's not entirely their fault or even their parents.
This generation just doesn't have the experience of the previous generations and lack understanding of how precious the rights and privileges are and how hard people fought and died to get them. So there is an air of entitlement and violence enters.

I believe we are at the end of Democracy and on the brink of Mob Rule. This explains a ruler who appeals to Mob mentality and riles them up to do the ruler's bidding.  And then later the Mob will over throw this ruler too, as the Mob take on a life of it's own. And as time goes on a true leader will emerge from the Mob and we will be back to Monarchy. It is also interesting that in the time of Mob rule little may be left of all the accomplishments of the entire previous era or cycle. The high accomplishments and landmarks of the previous civilization maybe reduced to fairy tales, folk lore, and religion.

But I also have hope in this new generation as there are many who surprisingly adept and gracious, bold and unaffected by authority unless there is a real sunstance to it. Perhaps they will break this cycle or change it in some way.
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April 20, 2018, 06:10:25 PM
Merited by theymos (1)
 #4

I've been long aware of this marvelous Polybious text and yes, this kind of cycle is still happening in our society.
After long periods of inconsistency, a tyrant always rise. This is maybe difficult to see nowadays, for we all live under the false impression of "freedom", but there is not freedom at all.
Two of the most powerful countries around the world are led by tyrants, as we all now. Even so, in the smallest countries with poorest economies, we have tyrants after revolutionary thoughts, as an endless circle of despair. Once the revolution is over, this is common to see how the supposedly freedom-seekers become, once again, tyrants. And every happens in an eternal cycle, from the time and Polybious and even before that.

If you study the Humankind HIstory, this is always the same.
Now, how is Bitcoin entering into this world? I don't believe the new crypto-economy will lead to an important change in this matter. Humankind has a predictable behavior, and even when important economic changes take place, the history doesn't seem to be able to escape from the eternal cycle. Our society is still in the middle ages in so many places (I can say in maybe the 60% of the globe the people still have middle-ages beliefs, such religion). We live in a different world, we live in the cyberlife, where knowledge is available to many, where we can read, we can build complex ideas. But when the hunger, the war, the ignorance, the tyranny is your way-of-life, bitcoin will suppose nothing.
Somehow, we are used to thinking about the world with our eyes, so we usually forget there are many people (most of humanity) with no access to the world we new, with no access to internet, medical service, food, water, and, of course with no clue of who Polybious is. Bitcoin is here, and it will matter to a section of the world. But just to a section.

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April 20, 2018, 06:29:46 PM
 #5

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency certainly is revolutionary!  Maybe the most revolutionary, as currency has always been government controled. And I  agree that more than ever, there are multiple worlds of existence with entirely different values and beliefs going on at the same time. Thanks again for this informative post.
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April 21, 2018, 01:24:38 AM
Merited by theymos (1)
 #6

It's very interesting how something that was written millennia ago is still on topic in our current days. That is the proof human race didn't change anything, people are still the same and technology wasn't enough to change their minds and to help them to evolve.

For this reason, I don't think Bitcoin can do much to change this looping societies are involved.
A society where "everyone is and can reasonably be sovereign over his own affairs" demands that each individual is really individual and authentic, what is the opposite of the reality. Most people need someone to follow and to give them an opinion. It can be the media, religions, ideologies, friends, influential people in general, etc...

A good example of this is the forum. I have seen theoretically each person here was supposed to build their own trust list, so there wouldn't be a "king, an aristocracy, or a majority", but people didn't want to go through this path, even having the possibility and the endorsement to do so.

The "vicious circle" exists because people are fine with it, they are conniving with it. I think technology (Bitcoin is an example) can't do anything to change this reality, the only way to break the circle is to awaken the conscience inside ourselves, awakening the unconscious inner self that inhabits each one of us. This one has enough authenticity, skills and knowledge to make use of the tools around (Bitcoin is one of them) to achieve the individual sovereignty once and for all.
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April 21, 2018, 02:47:59 PM
Merited by theymos (1)
 #7

Precisely. We have in our hands' amazing technology, such smartphones (smart??) and look at what use the people gives to them: Facebook, Instagram, and this stuff where you have animal faces (I don't know what are they), etc.
They don't use technology to download marvelous books, to read, to learn, but to share their beach photos and their morning-flowered coffees. Even when most of the people are aware of the Facebooks scandal, they don't care, for the entertainment and the ignorance is all they seek, as in a Huxley's nightmare.

In the times of Polybious, people were few compared with today and, yet, he was able to read society and to understand the cycle of nonsense. With all the advances having place each day, the common of the population prefers to stay ignorant and to follow the mainstream thoughts, despite they have all in the palm of their hands (obviously I refer only a part of the population). We must add to this, perhaps, the crazy increment of the population, this insane reproduction of a species, as cancer growing on the surface of the Earth. But, even so, the behaviors haven't changed much from the last 3.000 years.

So, yes, Bitcoin, I'm afraid, has not enough power to reach the minds of the people, it can be used (someday) by them, but as another useful tool, not as a concept. All the internet creation was a revolution, back in the 80s. And look the result: a nightmare of surveillance even Orwell couldn't see, for it is a voluntary surveillance, made happily by the people.
If Bitcoin was seeking anonymity in its ideological fight against the system, the bank... well, people are not interested, they prefer their coffee-pic, their selfies, and their gym.

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April 21, 2018, 06:24:38 PM
Merited by theymos (1)
 #8

Quote
He predicts that all governments/societies go through a 7-stage cycle
The word "predict" is not the right term, sounds religious, Cheesy not fit to Polybius because he's historian which was the reason why he understood the situation and the 7 cycle already happening before and during his time.

Quote
What do you think? Does this idea still have merit 2100+ years later?
Yes!

Quote
If so, at what point in the cycle are we in now?
Mix except monarchy, democracy (I was tempted not to include democracy because of misusing it for personal gain, like in a country where democracy exist, communist use the system to pursue their goal, not just the communist but also the evil government officials are hiding in it, and the some reason that lead confusion to a simple country man), and aristocracy.

Quote
If this cycle is indeed inevitable in politics, then Bitcoin offers a hope of escape,since Bitcoin (and crypto-anarchy generally) is all about removing politics from life.
Removing politics from life will never happen, why? Because it is life who created the politics. And even bitcoin reach its purpose it will not works perfectly to break the garbage because it is inside of everyone's heart.
Read this:
Quote
But here again when children inherited this position of authority from their fathers, having no experience of misfortune and none at all of civil equality and liberty of speech, and having been brought up from the cradle amid the evidences of the power and high position of their fathers, they abandoned themselves some to greed of gain and unscrupulous money-making, others to indulgence in wine and the convivial excess which accompanies it, and others again to the violation of women and the rape of boys

And thus the hope that bitcoin wants to offer is just a false hope.

Society will not taste the success without the form of leadership, thus bitcoin will just a false savior for man's longing and could be another thing of disappointment.
For me the only way for bitcoin to bring  great success, it should be under the rule of a good monarchy system controlled by aristocrats. Aristocrat according to Socrates is someone who is selfless, has the heart for his country, well educated and full of wisdom.
I read remember in his book he says " the country should be lead by aristocrats in order to experience peace, equality, and success" (this is paraphrase)

Lastly, bitcoin will never experience success for its very purpose without the back up of the noble leaders.

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April 21, 2018, 09:35:23 PM
 #9

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when children inherited this position of authority from their fathers, having no experience of misfortune and none at all of civil equality and liberty of speech, and having been brought up from the cradle amid the evidences of the power and high position of their fathers, they abandoned themselves some to greed of gain and unscrupulous money-making, others to indulgence in wine and the convivial excess which accompanies it, and others again to the violation of women

I think he was talking about our DT1-2 members and even mentioned something about alia, look in the bold part.

Quote
rulers must be distinguished from their subjects by a peculiar dress, that there should be a peculiar luxury and variety in the dressing and serving of their viands, and that they should meet with no denial in the pursuit of their amours, however lawless. These habits having given rise in the one case to envy and offence and in the other to an outburst of hatred and passionate resentment,

Again DT1-2 members and then mentioning something about QS and OG. a little bit of humble Joe and friends.

Quote
So when they begin to lust for power and cannot attain it through themselves or their own good qualities, they ruin their estates, tempting and corrupting the people in every possible way. And hence when by their foolish thirst for reputation they have created among the masses an appetite for gifts and the habit of receiving them,

I'm confused now. at some point I can see myself in there, and then

Quote
as soon as they find a leader who is enterprising but is excluded from the houses of office by his penury, institute the rule of violence

Like The Pharmacist bursting out and I'd demand for immediate action.

Quote
rule of force and violence [mob-rule].

This should be changed to [mod-rule].

In my arrogant opinion, this forum is a small version of the world outside. I think we already had the jumping on women and now entering in to the violence and mob-rule phase.


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April 22, 2018, 11:23:17 PM
Merited by theymos (1)
 #10

Thank you for this, it's not often I find myself reading anything insightful these days.
Also thank you to diagaran for posting a link to this thread.

I do often find myself tuning out the realities of the world we live in, not so much for the blissful ignorance but to give myself a break. I think if you look around the world today you can find almost every one of the 7 stages currently taking place. Unfortunately (my view) mob rule appears to be the one sticking out the most in my mind. This is mostly due to the fact that under democracy everyone's voice is supposed to carry equal weight. Unfortunately with that equal weight their is not the same onus on being equally informed. You can ask 10 people to weigh in on a serious political discussion and you'd be lucky to find 2 that have enough information or awareness to be informed.

Sadly you could ask the same 10 people something about big brother/kardashians/random pop culture icon flavor of the month; and the majority will be more engaged than they have been about any political or society related issue ever. Regardless of views on governments I currently live within a democracy bordering on a slide towards mob rule; in the form of populism based on fear mongering. While my country is not as bad as some I find myself having a harder time conducting serious conversations with people who have cherry picked their facts from random sites on the internet.

To go back to topic a little more I myself feel we will see less and less of the cycle reverting to Monarchy and Kingship unless, we have an extinction class event; man made(most likely) or not. I do believe that we have more so done mini cycles going from a MOB rule to Tyranny and then transitioning into aristocracy. The early days may have the feel of Monarchy and Kingship but I think in most cases this is a short lived period.

In regards to Crypto being able to break the cycles; it's hard to say. This cycle was born out of human nature and we are still a factor in the Crypto ecosystem. We already have people claiming the virtuous path and trying to gear Bitcoin to their vision. There is already large amounts of consolidated wealth that grows larger by the day. The reason I don't feel that Crypto in it's current form will break the cycle is that not enough of society has adopted it at it's inception. If when the world has universally adopted Crypto a coin is launched with everyone having access to it in the beginning there may be a chance. Although I feel we will just create a new cycle until we can find our way beyond the self preservation of human nature and move towards a species preservation mindset.

That will be fine until; "When owing to floods, famines, failure of crops or other such causes there occurs such a destruction of the human race as tradition tells us has more than once happened, and as we must believe will often happen again, all arts and crafts perishing at the same time" Quoted from OP; The Histories

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April 23, 2018, 03:24:17 AM
 #11

If when the world has universally adopted Crypto a coin is launched with everyone having access to it in the beginning there may be a chance.

There is a chance, too many of them actually being announced in this forum. even if you start over with Bitcoin mining, you'd increase the mining difficulty as soon as the second miner starts mining.

In regards to Crypto being able to break the cycles; it's hard to say.

Is it really that hard? if Billions of dollars being freely transferred every day is not breaking the cycle I don't know what else could be considered to be a cycle breaker.

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April 23, 2018, 12:30:26 PM
Last edit: April 25, 2018, 03:05:16 AM by Steamtyme
 #12



There is a chance, too many of them actually being announced in this forum. even if you start over with Bitcoin mining, you'd increase the mining difficulty as soon as the second miner starts mining.

Your right difficulty would skyrocket in any coin globally adopted and introduced. I feel that would be what drives that financial systems pricing and value as well as inflation. My point was that everyone would be on a somewhat leveled playing field. Anyone currently wealthy would obviously still be able to secure a greater share of the networks hashing power; thus i guess restarting the cycles


Is it really that hard? if Billions of dollars being freely transferred every day is not breaking the cycle I don't know what else could be considered to be a cycle breaker.


In the current form the cryptocurrency market is a secondary financial ecosystem. Comparable to something like Disney land bucks; not sure if they exist never been.

The billions of dollars have value and are available for trade and barter because we within the system give it value. So until the system stops equatting it to say a USD value; it's more of a disruption to the norms of the financial and taxation systems than anything.

EDIT: Edited spelling errors and autocorrect

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April 23, 2018, 10:51:36 PM
Last edit: June 16, 2018, 05:24:36 PM by CoinCube
Merited by theymos (2)
 #13

If this cycle is indeed inevitable in politics, then Bitcoin offers a hope of escape, since Bitcoin (and crypto-anarchy generally) is all about removing politics from life. Instead of trusting a king, an aristocracy, or a majority, you structure things so that everyone is and can reasonably be sovereign over his own affairs.


I do think Bitcoin offers a hope of escape or at least resistance over the longer term.

Polybius was clearly a very insightful individual and his writings highlight the fact that human nature has not really changed much over the last 2000 years.

The cycle was articulated with a slightly different focus by Henning Webb Prentis, Jr in the 1940's but it is the same basic idea.

Quote from:  Henning Webb Prentis, Jr
Paradoxically enough, the release of initiative and enterprise made possible by popular self-government ultimately generates disintegrating forces from within. Again and again after freedom has brought opportunity and some degree of plenty, the competent become selfish, luxury-loving and complacent, the incompetent and the unfortunate grow envious and covetous, and all three groups turn aside from the hard road of freedom to worship the Golden Calf of economic security.

The historical cycle seems to be: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to apathy; from apathy to dependency; and from dependency back to bondage once more."

I think the cycle is mostly accurate but it has two basic requirements for progression to occur.
 
1) There has to be moral corruption that those with power are susceptible too.
2) There has to be a means by which the corrupt can be overthrown

If we ever reached the stage where there was leadership without corruption they cycle would cease. If we ever reached the stage where tyranny was absolute omnipresent and oppressive with no viable way to ever overthrow it the cycle would also cease.

Unfortunately of the two possible ends to this cycle a permanent tyranny appears the more likely one.
We are a perhaps only a single generation away from the time when technological advances will probably make overthrowing a tyranny nearly impossible once it is established.

AgentofCoin highlighted out how this could play out.

Re: What is the future of bitcoin in 2025?
Around this time, many countries will have already converted their physical
monetary systems to digital systems, likely using editable ledger systems.
They will not be public, immutable, decentralized, or etc, and will not be
utilized for the purpose of a more efficient and fair monetary system, but
to assist and ensure governmental control and monitoring of their citizens.
Under this system, purchases are recorded and analyzed instantly to
determine the human's probable future actions.

Based upon this system, in conjunctions with a synthetic implant powered
and secured by the human's nervous system shortly thereafter, it will be
possible to implement an end game scenario where human rights no longer
exist since they can be denied by erasing your existence from their system.
In those countries, citizens who have been "erased" will be unable to even
buy a loaf of bread or be given access to medical service facilities. Any
citizens who come across an "erased" will be accused of unlawful association,
and thus be subject to possible removal from their system. This reinforces
the government's power and control over the human citizens. The humans
in this system can never collectively organize and attempt to overthrow this
totalitarian control system since their future actions are calculated based
upon their recent actions and recent inactions.

At this time, the Bitcoin Network is the only free and fair montary system
that allows humans to survive outside of this future totalitarian system.
Majority of individuals who have been "erased" will form small collectives
which perform services that are legal or deemed illegal by those counties,
and will be compensated through bitcoins. Citizens within these countries
will at times need the services of the "erased" and so some will possess
bitcoins in secret so that they can purchase their particular services.

I think that cryptocurrency will force reform of fiat currency. The scenario traincarswreck
presented is one where bitcoin will force fiat to more closely approximate nash's ideal money over time and this forced reform will probably happen. Traincarswreck thesis was unnecessarily hard to follow but it was in the following thread.

Open Letter to GMaxwell and Sincere Rational Core Devs
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1809999.0

Trainscarswreck process of reform, however, leads logically to a single world centrally controlled nashian currency from which it is very easy to fall into the tyranny AgentofCoin outlined.

I would prefer to be utterly wrong in my analysis of this probable future.

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April 25, 2018, 01:34:02 AM
 #14

Unfortunately of the two possible ends to this cycle a permanent tyranny appears the more likely one.
We are a perhaps only a single generation away from the time when technological advances will probably make overthrowing a tyranny nearly impossible once it is established.

I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.

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April 25, 2018, 03:46:30 AM
 #15


*snip* What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape.
The worst part about that is how freely the majority of the world has taken steps towards this scenario by choice. I fell into an interesting generation where I can still see the technological "progress" for what it is and is not. I can also admit that *life has gotten in the way a bit and I have only recently began focusing more on what information I want to share with the world and what I do not. I assume anything I put out there is in fact available to anyone at anytime.

The simplest example to me currently has been the way I am now targeted by every Crypto ad, or GPU rig component ad, every time I open a site. The same was being done with targeted political messaging/propaganda; so I feel society needs to be educated on the value of finding that tiny space in your life that is out of sight and sound of the screen.  Without that space it is hard to tune out the terrible atrocities committed by Eurasia and Eastasia.

Quote from: theymos
If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue.

One would hope so but there have been times when these Tyrants or Kings have also suffered from delusions or mental illness. Untreated and unchecked all bets are off. Thanks to my wife I learned a decent amount about Henry the 8th; you could wonder how this man showed love or compassion and still acted with such indifference.
More recently I look at North Korea; and am supposed to see this new side of Kim Jong Un because he released the video of a terrible bus accident and was said to have uncontrollable grief. I would like to believe that, truly, but I would also like to think if that was possible he is looking back at his past and the grief is also remorse. Perhaps it will be an opportunity for freedom and virtue to make a comeback.

Quote from: theymos
But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.

* We already have a trap that is going to assist in leading us there; and it has infiltrated crypto almost like the little brother that tags along. It's credit, the simplest way to keep people in line and focused away from progress or the world outside their bubble; is to have them indebted. Then when you add the layers of technology and data mining to that a person has lost all their secrets before they thought to ask "why".

Going over all of this I feel we are disturbingly close to your point. If someone stands out and is in some way different they can be known within hours across the globe. Thanks to smartphones we have given whatever agency or corporation wants it; access to an all seeing eye. With that system in place when someone/thing has their moment, it will not be noticed by the masses but their will be a gradual change and we can only hope enough people are aware of it. This is when I like to think self preservation or even the preservation of a cause finds it's here; the ones that despite the possibility of failure try what needs to be done.


I would prefer to be utterly wrong in my analysis of this probable future.

I would like to as well. I enjoyed the Agentofcoin read the first time I saw it thanks for the refresher. I plan to spend a few nights reading through your SIG.


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April 25, 2018, 06:03:22 AM
 #16


I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.

That scenario unfortunately strikes me as very probable.

There is perhaps currently a push away from that direction in the US but I suspect it represents only a temporary reprieve.

The current financial boom is simply the result of leveraging debt based stimulus for everything it is worth. When the value of fiat starts to progressively erode as it must and unsustainable promises and benefits are threatened I very much doubt the populace will ask for less control and redistribution but demand more. The increasing rise of automation will further concentrate economic power into the hands of the few resulting in ever larger numbers of government dependents. This will exacerbate the problem.

My hope is that there are other forces at play  currently or in the future that will alter this trajectory. Unfortunately, I do not know what those might be.

Anonymint when he was still around offered one of the more hopeful alternatives I have come across in his hypothesis of a future knowledge age.

The Rise of Knowledge

I am less confident then he is about the path from our current position to his hypothesized future.


I would like to as well. I enjoyed the Agentofcoin read the first time I saw it thanks for the refresher. I plan to spend a few nights reading through your SIG.


Your welcome, the signature is just a collection of links to various things I have found interesting. A couple of them are short video clips. A few point to particularly interesting blogs of others elsewhere. Most are links to some of my prior posts in other threads that I thought people might find interesting.

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April 25, 2018, 12:23:04 PM
 #17

Reading trough all you comments here I want to show you the bigger picture, you may not agree with.
1984 is just a small fraction of what is coming towards us, / or is already here/.
The governments are just puppets they are nothing, same as presidents or kings, . The people sitting behind them are the big problem.
Let me illustrate it so you get my point >

"Image loading...

Talking about religion, well I'm christian but still, it's the same with all the other religions, just tool of control, fear ..
"Image loading...

Call me a crazy conspiracy theorist but projects like MKUltra and the Monarch developed by the very own government are not something people would like to hear about. Some of the victims are speaking out the truth now, after so many years.
All those mass killers are not coincidence, I guess Assange can also speak out, did you ever wonder why he is always with white/blonde/ hair?
Let me add some more hot topics >

The "Clinton Body Count"
"Image loading...

And the pedophile ring..
"Image loading...

This is gonna be just a brief post, there is so much to discuss, but the time is not enough.

We already living in 1984 but we do not see it. The food you eat, the air you breath, the water you drink, everything is controlled, you are thoughts are controlled by the TV, Media, your Phone tracks every step you do. Everything is under under observation, you cannot escape.

Yeah, bitcoin gives you just a small whiff of fresh air but we have to do more to be free. Freedom is just illusion, as is the democracy, the people's voice is silence, why? Because THEY don't want you to be able to think and to fight against THEM.

They want to be GOD, and sadly they are.



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April 25, 2018, 01:20:21 PM
 #18

I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.
In any convergent social system where a group of people are located, starting with 150 or more people, an archetype ecosystem is formed in which a divergent unit of thinking appears, exhibiting deviant behavior with probability 1. This is a kind of "randomizer generator" "this allows a person to be identified in humanity . In the minds of each of us there are these 150 archetypes. The problem is that some of them are suppressed. And this happens as long as humanity remembers itself. And there is a way to balance the mind by turning it off from reality - it's psychoactive substances. At least tetrahydrocannabinol (contained in marijuana) is able to re-install most systems in humans, correcting its ability to reflect the objective reality.

The language of technology is convergent and unambiguous, in order to be soulful humanity it is also necessary to develop a new ways of imaginative thinking and communication. Not only new money is needed, but a new language is also needed.

The future is connected with the development of communication methods and a new language - psychoactive substances will help us to create it. The most important thing is not to follow the path of consumption in the sphere of psychoactive substances. With this you should to be treated with respect and trembling. This is a responsible game with a soul.

Remember, there is always a way of existence under which a person becomes uncontrollable. And governments, in turn, can not simply take and destroy such people, especially if they are the majority. Play, do not stop, be carried away and gonna be obsessed with your ideas, then they will not be able to control you..
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April 25, 2018, 04:35:36 PM
Last edit: April 25, 2018, 10:10:43 PM by CoinCube
 #19

...
The governments are just puppets they are nothing, same as presidents or kings, . The people sitting behind them are the big problem.
 

The people have always been the problem. Human nature is deeply flawed. That ultimately is the common theme in each stage of the cycle highlighted by Polybius all those years ago.

Another problem arises from the fact that we are rapidly growing more powerful.
One man with a knife can only do so much harm. One man with a bioweapons lab quite a bit more. This trend will only accelerate in the years to come.

Without equal growth in moral behavior technological progress must inevitably lead to an ever growing omnipresent state as a logical necessity. Freedom requires self control if the people cannot control themselves the state will grow and step in to fill the role. The more powerful the populace  becomes via technological progress the more self control the people will need to have if they wish to be free.

I see little chance that any moral progression will keep pace with technological progress. Thus I suspect the future will inevitably be less free then the present.

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April 25, 2018, 09:51:13 PM
Last edit: April 26, 2018, 12:13:36 AM by NadiaHel
Merited by theymos (2)
 #20


I've also been getting increasingly worried about that possibility. What worries me most is a 1984-style scenario where the game is constructed such that even the people "in charge" can't escape. If someone is in charge, then there's some hope, since I think that almost everyone is at least a little decent, and even most tyrants would not want to completely crush all freedom and virtue. But with technology, I could see humanity trapping itself utterly in some perpetual machine with no freedom or progress of any kind.

Two hundred years ago, a man called Henry David Thoreau wrote: "Men have become tools of their own tools". And thus, in resume, is the idea I`m going to explain...


1984 wasn`t supposed to be a manual, and yet it is. But I believe the world is taking two different paths (but I don`t mean those paths to be in different countries, they can coexist in one country at the time). The first, an Orwellian one, in with the people is controlled (overcontrolled) by the government, at the same time as afraid due to an invented war. An example of that is Mexico, where the population is living under the false impression of democracy ("the tyranny of the ignorant people", as Platon used to say), but where the tyranny is the real statement: they live under the police tyranny, the corrupted government; they live in a nightmare of deceased ones and disappearances... But, yet, they stay in silent, for the false image of a democracy, and the continuous message of fear is really effective. Thus, an Orwellian panorama is happening in many places, but the common feature of this situation to succeed seems to be poverty.

We have the other path: the Huxley`s one, where the people is so distracted they don`t even care. In "A Brave new world" Huxley described how a society can be happy by being ignorant and programmed, by being distracted all the time, by evading insights, thoughts and profounds feelings. Just take a walk on any capital in the world. Go to London, Paris, Madrid, even the "nice" part of Mexico City; go anyplace with some commodities granted. What will you discover?? Huxley`s descriptions: human relationships are cold; people worried about how they look, where they go to take a coffee, what colour they should wear in their hear; what`s trending; how many likes they got today...

Meantime, both paths come together into something terrible: surveillance. I think another user wrote about that in a previous quote. He said something like people is nicely sharing anything, they share their faces, their lives, their personal information, the name of their cousins, parents, sons; they share where they went the last week, where and with who were yesterday hanging out; they share everything, their routines, their medical records, almost!! Because here is where the paths come together: Huxley and his society being occupied, distracted, and Orwell`s surveillance. Neither Huxley nor Orwell couldn't have foreseen the reality: people are willing to do this, to share to renounce to their freedom, to put on the public table all their dreams, their activities and -the worst part- their relative's ones.

This is the world we are building? People are now being conditioned to share everything, so don`t have even an identity. In the world I live, at least -which happens to be in Europe-, all I can see is children growing up in the society of the "sharing", the "likes" and the "trending topics". Will this children understand in a future how damaged it is? No. We are creating a whole new concept of "freetyranny", where the world is taken those mixed paths and drawing a terrible future. Is the society going to change, to evolve? No, I don`t think so. It has happened before, and it will happen again, and again, and again: people willing to believe anything in order to get some public recognition.
All of them are implied. You see, the Congress in the US asking Mr Zuck their questions, is an amazing example. We live in a Facebook world, with all that that implies. A FACEBOOK world, where there is nobody in charge anymore. The society has changed into this facebook world nightmare, and it has been done voluntarily. All the congressmen and women have a Facebook account, every day they share what the people must see of them; every day they use it as a tool, but, surely, every day they also worried about the "likes" and the "views". They are trapped in the game.

How in the hell can humankind come into this? How can be THIS the chosen path?
I can`t answer that question, but, I`m sure, that`s a fact, sadly.
 


 
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