How long till the end of the USDollar?

[Hawker]

I can't find never in the poll, everyone is so pessimistic about USD?

Fiat currencies have never lasted through history before, why is the USD special?  Because you use it?

The thing that makes the dollar special is that the US government taxes are paid in Dollars.  As long as the USA exists as a wealthy nation of over 300 million people, the dollar will be a valuable currency. 

[Mike Christ]

I can't find never in the poll, everyone is so pessimistic about USD?

Fiat currencies have never lasted through history before, why is the USD special?  Because you use it?

The thing that makes the dollar special is that the US government taxes are paid in Dollars.  As long as the USA exists as a wealthy nation of over 300 million people, the dollar will be a valuable currency. 

That doesn't make the dollar special, that makes the dollar like every single fiat currency to have ever existed.

What makes the USD special?

[Kiki112]

I can't find never in the poll, everyone is so pessimistic about USD?

Fiat currencies have never lasted through history before, why is the USD special?  Because you use it?

The thing that makes the dollar special is that the US government taxes are paid in Dollars.  As long as the USA exists as a wealthy nation of over 300 million people, the dollar will be a valuable currency. 

That doesn't make the dollar special, that makes the dollar like every single fiat currency to have ever existed.

What makes the USD special?

nothing, but it doesn't make him go away, USD will not fall until  USA falls, almost everything today is paid in dollars especially online.
until terrorists take down the US, USD will  prevail

[prof7bit]

USD will not fall until  USA falls

No. USD will fall when the USA makes the switch to Bitcoin as its official currency. With it the banking cartel will fall and the world will be a better place.

[Kiki112]

USD will not fall until  USA falls

No. USD will fall when the USA makes the switch to Bitcoin as its official currency. With it the banking cartel will fall and the world will be a better place.

wow, that's an interesting possibility (altough very very unlikely )
but don't you think there would be new Bitcoin banks?  

[monbux]

Considering that the US is currently trillions of dollars in debt, I would think 5 years, ot 50 years, or 500 years.  It would depend on how the government is handling things.

[beetcoin]

USD will not fall until  USA falls

No. USD will fall when the USA makes the switch to Bitcoin as its official currency. With it the banking cartel will fall and the world will be a better place.

sorry, but this is just a wild BTC-lensed dream. BTC is a deflationary quasi currency. it cannot be used as a standard for currency for this reason.

Considering that the US is currently trillions of dollars in debt, I would think 5 years, ot 50 years, or 500 years.  It would depend on how the government is handling things.

nearly every major government is printing out unprecedented amounts of paper notes. see here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8484530/Americas-reckless-money-printing-could-put-the-world-back-into-crisis.html

[Kiki112]

USD will not fall until  USA falls

No. USD will fall when the USA makes the switch to Bitcoin as its official currency. With it the banking cartel will fall and the world will be a better place.

sorry, but this is just a wild BTC-lensed dream. BTC is a deflationary quasi currency. it cannot be used as a standard for currency for this reason.

Considering that the US is currently trillions of dollars in debt, I would think 5 years, ot 50 years, or 500 years.  It would depend on how the government is handling things.

nearly every major government is printing out unprecedented amounts of paper notes. see here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8484530/Americas-reckless-money-printing-could-put-the-world-back-into-crisis.html

I support what your point is but the stuff you said doesn't make any sense xD
I don't see how overprinting is related to Bitcoin not replacing the dollar?

[beetcoin]

USD will not fall until  USA falls

No. USD will fall when the USA makes the switch to Bitcoin as its official currency. With it the banking cartel will fall and the world will be a better place.

sorry, but this is just a wild BTC-lensed dream. BTC is a deflationary quasi currency. it cannot be used as a standard for currency for this reason.

Considering that the US is currently trillions of dollars in debt, I would think 5 years, ot 50 years, or 500 years.  It would depend on how the government is handling things.

nearly every major government is printing out unprecedented amounts of paper notes. see here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8484530/Americas-reckless-money-printing-could-put-the-world-back-into-crisis.html

I support what your point is but the stuff you said doesn't make any sense xD
I don't see how overprinting is related to Bitcoin not replacing the dollar?

being a depreciating asset means people are not willing to spend their money, and instead hoard it.. why? because it keeps increasing in value. for a currency to be a true one, it needs to encourage free spending.

this is what happened in rome when the empire decided to dilute their currency (they melted gold and mixed it with bronze, making the coins less pure). people, instead of spending their best assets, horded them and used the cheaper metals.while this didn't exactly cause their downfall, it was a stage that contributed to it.

thinking that BTC will become the main world currency one day is just a pipe dream.

[Mike Christ]

being a depreciating asset means people are not willing to spend their money, and instead hoard it.. why? because it keeps increasing in value. for a currency to be a true one, it needs to encourage free spending.

Understand two things:

1. Nobody hordes till they die (and if they do, they probably needed to die)
2. The market adapts because people adapt

There is nothing stopping you from spending Bitcoin, except in the case of things you really don't want or need which sounds like more of a solution to me than anything.  Is Bitcoin bad for a debt-based economy?  Absolutely!  Does anyone really like our debt-based economy?  Only the few who don't work for a living.

this is what happened in rome when the empire decided to dilute their currency (they melted gold and mixed it with bronze, making the coins less pure). people, instead of spending their best assets, horded them and used the cheaper metals.while this didn't exactly cause their downfall, it was a stage that contributed to it.

thinking that BTC will become the main world currency one day is just a pipe dream.

You say that like it's a bad thing the Roman empire fell.

[beetcoin]

being a depreciating asset means people are not willing to spend their money, and instead hoard it.. why? because it keeps increasing in value. for a currency to be a true one, it needs to encourage free spending.

Understand two things:

1. Nobody hordes till they die (and if they do, they probably needed to die)
2. The market adapts because people adapt

There is nothing stopping you from spending Bitcoin, except in the case of things you really don't want or need which sounds like more of a solution to me than anything.  Is Bitcoin bad for a debt-based economy?  Absolutely!  Does anyone really like our debt-based economy?  Only the few who don't work for a living.

1. that still doesn't lead anyone with knowledge to think that BTC will be the standard world currency. of course people are spending their BTC, but if the world economy is doing well.. people will have to invest. and BTC's inherent deflationary nature means that there'd be less people willing to invest; so how could people switch over to BTC as the standard currency?
2. how does this really prove anything? that's just a broad statement.

people are and will be spending bitcoin, and i never argued against that.. but you need to have a healthy level of encouragement to "spend" in order to keep the economy going.

[Mike Christ]

1. that still doesn't lead anyone with knowledge to think that BTC will be the standard world currency. of course people are spending their BTC, but if the world economy is doing well.. people will have to invest. and BTC's inherent deflationary nature means that there'd be less people willing to invest; so how could people switch over to BTC as the standard currency?
2. how does this really prove anything? that's just a broad statement.

I have never implied BTC will be the standard world currency; for that matter, why on earth would anyone want this?  All I'm pointing out is that there is nothing about bitcoin's deflationary nature that leads to negative effects; it's volatility is what is preventing it from becoming a currency, but a money that gradually makes its holders richer encourages saving; the second point is extremely important to understand, as you seem to be under the impression that the market must always be debt-based, i.e. we must always continue to spend, spend, spend in order to keep the economy flowing.  This isn't true; if it turns out that people prefer to save their wealth than spend it, the economy adapts to this shift, instead of imploding or whatever other dangerous things Keynesians put forth.

[beetcoin]

1. that still doesn't lead anyone with knowledge to think that BTC will be the standard world currency. of course people are spending their BTC, but if the world economy is doing well.. people will have to invest. and BTC's inherent deflationary nature means that there'd be less people willing to invest; so how could people switch over to BTC as the standard currency?
2. how does this really prove anything? that's just a broad statement.

I have never implied BTC will be the standard world currency; for that matter, why on earth would anyone want this?  All I'm pointing out is that there is nothing about bitcoin's deflationary nature that leads to negative effects; it's volatility is what is preventing it from becoming a currency, but a money that gradually makes its holders richer encourages saving; the second point is extremely important to understand, as you seem to be under the impression that the market must always be debt-based, i.e. we must always continue to spend, spend, spend in order to keep the economy flowing.  This isn't true; if it turns out that people prefer to save their wealth than spend it, the economy adapts to this shift, instead of imploding or whatever other dangerous things Keynesians put forth.

your reply was to my initial statement, which was basically: "BTC can't be a world/standard currency." maybe i misunderstood, but i assumed you were countering my initial statement.

[Vandroiy]

It's a political question. In principle, the USD can collapse in value but still remain in existence.

Maybe the big governments will file for bankruptcy, as Greece did. That may somewhat put a lid on inflation. Possibly they won't be able to manage it and start inflating crazily. Then, the question is how many people cope with it and how many start using more stable currencies or commodities.

I guess the end of the USD will be at least a good bit after it has lost most of its current value. Therefore, the exact date isn't all that important when determining how many dollars to hold on the long run.

[NUFCrichard]

It's coming along nicely at the moment.  The fed is being doveish but the bond yields are nearing 3% anyway.
and that's before they even start to taper QE.  Not stop QE, taper it!  When they taper and yields go to 3.5%+, then they will have to start up the printing presses again.

They can't afford to pay any real world valuation interest on their debt, so they need QE infinity.  And more and more to keep rates low.  Soon enough China will move away from USD (already happening), then boom, down goes the greenback!

Or Japan could explode first and everyone will see the similarity, then down goes the greenback!

[Hawker]

It's coming along nicely at the moment.  The fed is being doveish but the bond yields are nearing 3% anyway.
and that's before they even start to taper QE.  Not stop QE, taper it!  When they taper and yields go to 3.5%+, then they will have to start up the printing presses again.

They can't afford to pay any real world valuation interest on their debt, so they need QE infinity.  And more and more to keep rates low.  Soon enough China will move away from USD (already happening), then boom, down goes the greenback!

Or Japan could explode first and everyone will see the similarity, then down goes the greenback!

Remember why interest rates are low.  Its a market - governments sell bonds and the rate reflects the free market value of the debt.  Right now, the US government pays a negative interest rate on 5 year bonds and just about breaks even on 10 year bonds.  The reason its so cheap is that there is nowhere else to deposit a few trillion dollars risk free.

So the US, UK and Japanese governments will never have an issue with paying off debt at market rates as long as there is nowhere else to deposit large amounts of cash.  

[NUFCrichard]

there is nowhere else to deposit a few trillion dollars risk free

Risk free? That is why the rates are low but it is completely flawed thinking. Was money in Greece risk free? or Iceland? or Argentina?
Ok they are smaller economies, but the big markets are just bigger Ponzis.  As long as everyone keeps their money in, it is fine.  When people start cashing out then it is over.

As for actually paying off debt, when has that happened?  If you mean rolling it over, that is one thing, the idea that they will be paying it back is a joke.  

[0x00ff]

I think there are two questions: USD to 'end' and USD to collapse are two diffeent things. Until it collapses it will takle some years, but it's at its end already.

[Martijnvdc]

What happens to the euro when the US dollar collapses?

[0x00ff]

What happens to the euro when the US dollar collapses?

To me one thing is clear: once the USD collapses we're _all_ fu**ed up. Another thing that is quite likely is that it will end up in war once the USD will collapse. Besides that, it will pull other thing (not just currencies) with it. I think, one of the reasons the US have never been stopping to invest into military although people in the US die because of hunger and (on-existent) health care is that they need to be prepared for the day that the US is actually part of the third-world. Spain is called third world now by the US. As is Italy. The US wil be the same that day the USD goes down.