Bitcoin Price Drop

[Cluster2k]

Miners have bills that need to be paid.

There's also the strong whiff of 'sell now, before it gets worse' going around.  Why not sell at $12.50 if BTC is heading towards $10?

Although I strongly believe BTC is heading much lower while it scrambles to find a real use (apart from Silk Road), I also think current events in the USA are having an impact on BTC's value.  Some people like to believe BTC is decoupled from the general economy and that it's the 'better' currency', but the recent US debt turmoil and last night's 2%+ DJI fall must be having a general confidence impact.

[johnyj]

Bitcoin is just too difficult to use in daily life, especially that terrible account number which is constantly changing, will scare most of the users who is get used to a fixed bank account number in decades.

[hank]

I don't think any money from MYBITCOIN has been sold off, but it's sudden disappearance has probably caused many people to lose confidence in other online wallets and services.

Silk Road Anon probably has something to do with it. It hit the news around June 1st (http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22silk+road%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0). Give people 5 days or so to link their bank accounts to Dwolla and they're all buying on June 6th and Bitcoin reaches ~30USD because of the frenzy. The drop in value is the dealers selling back their BTC for USD over the following month.

Once people start to see the price dropping week to week they hold off buying more BTC to see how low the price can get.

[Xephan]

this is btc from mybitcoin

It could be, but several of the people who have sent BTC to addresses for their mybitcoin accounts have noted that the funds have not been moved from those addresses.

How would they know this if we don't need to use the same address to send coins? Or are all transactions trackable because it's actually Address A (original receiving address) -> Address B (New sending adress), then Address B -> Address C (consolidating address) ?

[Serith]

this is btc from mybitcoin

It could be, but several of the people who have sent BTC to addresses for their mybitcoin accounts have noted that the funds have not been moved from those addresses.

How would they know this if we don't need to use the same address to send coins? Or are all transactions trackable because it's actually Address A (original receiving address) -> Address B (New sending adress), then Address B -> Address C (consolidating address) ?

That is correct. Every single fund split or move could be extracted from block chain, that's why use of consolidating address e.g. donation signatures creates fund movement loops and hurts everyone's privacy by making it easier to identify someone's spendings.

Prior to performing the analyses above, we expected the user network to be largely composed of disjoint trees representing Bitcoin flows between one-time public-keys that were not linked with other public-keys. However, our analyses reveal that the user network has considerable cyclic structure.

An Analysis of Anonymity in the Bitcoin System

[amincd]

This should be moved to speculation.

[S3052]

prices just broke through a major , supporting chart tredline.
That move was anticipated in my technical analysis to my subscribers already monday morning
Further downside is likely unless this trendline is claimed back.

[Xephan]

this is btc from mybitcoin

It could be, but several of the people who have sent BTC to addresses for their mybitcoin accounts have noted that the funds have not been moved from those addresses.

How would they know this if we don't need to use the same address to send coins? Or are all transactions trackable because it's actually Address A (original receiving address) -> Address B (New sending adress), then Address B -> Address C (consolidating address) ?

That is correct. Every single fund split or move could be extracted from block chain, that's why use of consolidating address e.g. donation signatures creates fund movement loops and hurts everyone's privacy by making it easier to identify someone's spendings.

Prior to performing the analyses above, we expected the user network to be largely composed of disjoint trees representing Bitcoin flows between one-time public-keys that were not linked with other public-keys. However, our analyses reveal that the user network has considerable cyclic structure.

An Analysis of Anonymity in the Bitcoin System

Thanks for the confirmation and link to that paper

[HappyFunnyFoo]

As the clueless public loses interest in bitcoin (it was FOTM for a while back in June though!) price will drop, since bitcoin price is directly causally related to its popularity in google trends.

Bye bye investment, suckers You should've gotten out when I told you to at $20-$25 a coin.  Playing with fire, non-traders playin' with fire....

[Babylon]

Bitcoin is just too difficult to use in daily life, especially that terrible account number which is constantly changing, will scare most of the users who is get used to a fixed bank account number in decades.

you can use the same account number every time if you so desire.  Changing your number is useful to know who has sent you money and also for anonymity.

[jagminer2]

question of the day, sell @ $11 a BC or tough it out and wait for a rebound.

[Rassah]

question of the day, sell @ $11 a BC or tough it out and wait for a rebound.

Tough it out until Friday and sell for less!

[epii]

prices just broke through a major , supporting chart tredline.
That move was anticipated in my technical analysis to my subscribers already monday morning
Further downside is likely unless this trendline is claimed back.

I used to stand by S3052, but I call bullshit.  Every projection he's made for weeks has said, "Bitcoin is almost definitely going up!" with a tiny caveat, "(but it could also, you know, go down)".  His analyses are unfalsifiable.  He claims victory every time.

If he told his subscribers a crash is nigh as of Monday, than he was feeding us misinformation in his public analysis with:

Longterm: UP.
Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ – 10 $ range holds
Shortterm: UP from the 11$ or 12.5 $ lows.

[ploum]

I used to stand by S3052, but I call bullshit.  Every projection he's made for weeks has said, "Bitcoin is almost definitely going up!" with a tiny caveat, "(but it could also, you know, go down)".  His analyses are unfalsifiable.  He claims victory every time.

Isn't that what we call "economical science".

[Omega0255]

This is it guys. Time to bail!

SELL EVERYTHING!






lol 

[S3052]

prices just broke through a major , supporting chart tredline.
That move was anticipated in my technical analysis to my subscribers already monday morning
Further downside is likely unless this trendline is claimed back.

I used to stand by S3052, but I call bullshit.  Every projection he's made for weeks has said, "Bitcoin is almost definitely going up!" with a tiny caveat, "(but it could also, you know, go down)".  His analyses are unfalsifiable.  He claims victory every time.

If he told his subscribers a crash is nigh as of Monday, than he was feeding us misinformation in his public analysis with:

Longterm: UP.
Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ – 10 $ range holds
Shortterm: UP from the 11$ or 12.5 $ lows.

It was correct at that time, and was the right sequence: On Saturday, the 30th we gave the public update. On Monday, August 1, we did the in depth analysis for subscribers which provided new info.
But to explain: up from the 11$ to 12.5 lows means also that if prives fall below those levels trend changes.
On monday I have done a deep analysis and have seen that the likelyhood to break those levels has increased drmatically.
It is fair to my subscribers that they receive this alert exclusively.
They have paid a lot of money for that.
Everyone can chose to join or not.
And as always, everyone needs to make his own trading decisions.

[defxor]

On monday morning I hsve done a deep analysis

I'm quite sure my analysis beats yours Here it is: There are ASIC based mining rigs coming online right now, and there's a startup that will within a few months sell these to anyone who wants them.

An ASIC rig is mining coins at an order of magnitude cheaper than GPU rigs. Thus, the fundamentals backing bitcoin (= how cheap can a miner sell them and still make a profit) are currently dropping by a factor of ten, or so. The upside is that this is the last (CPU -> GPU -> ASIC) such disruption for the foreseeable future.

But feel free to practice your http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia - it's fun to watch

[lemonginger]

By your analysis, bitcoins should have been super expensive when they were being mined by CPUs.

Mining difficulty/expense has absolutely nothing to do with the price of BTC, only the profitability of mining, since the network autocorrects to produce a known amount of coins no matter what mining power is.

BTC price is determined by demand for BTC. Nothing more, nothing less. A mining equilibrium can settle it at any bitcoin price, from .01 USD to $1000 USD (and likely will).

[defxor]

By your analysis, bitcoins should have been super expensive when they were being mined by CPUs.

No. You might want to study Bitcoin's concept of difficulty to understand why.

[epii]

By your analysis, bitcoins should have been super expensive when they were being mined by CPUs.

No. You might want to study Bitcoin's concept of difficulty to understand why.

You might want to read more than the first sentence of the guy's post before responding.